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BlowFish

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by BlowFish

  1. Posted

    I'm not sure since the summer volume is in effect and the range has been narrowing. I can't tell if it's the migration or the summer. In either case, I haven't traded much because of poor price action.

     

    I would concur with volume :) though I am not sure about the range. It just kind of feels a bit thin and skittish. The DAX is similar so I presumed summer had officially started.

     

    Cheers.

  2. Posted

    I recommend speed to keep you alert and focused with a good hallucinogenic to aid the creative process a couple of tranquillisers will probably stop it being to stressful. All these pills are likely to leave you with a dry mouth, Vodka is a fairly neutral beverage to wash it all down. You may need heavy duty sleeping pills at the end of the day. If you fancy a recreational spliff at the same time, sure why not :rolleyes::confused::rolleyes:

  4. Posted

    Jerry,

     

    A couple of questions if I may. What if the gap between VWAP and PvP is 'large'. By large I mean placing the stop at the PVP would be too far away. I also wonder what newbie would do if the PvP jumps mid trade :o (I believe I am right in thinking you use today's developing PvP rather than yesterdays static one?)

     

    Very much enjoying your posts, simple but elegant. Chomping at the bit for newbies next steps.

     

    Cheers.

  5. Posted

    Dog,

     

    Err I am not sure how to say this without appearing argumentative but I think you are just plain wrong. The modal volume point often as not is the same as the modal TPO point. Providing you sample the data in the same way of course (both in price and time). Actually the volume profile will generally be more accurate as commonly it is sampled every tick rather than every half hour.

     

    Market Profile is simply a way to 'map' market structure. The stuff it is maping (supply and demand balances and imbalances etc.etc.) is best represented by volume as this actually is where traders met and agreed value. Order flow (volume) is the underlying stuff you are mapping.

     

    When Steidlmayer 'invented' Market Profile he ingeniously came up with using time as a proxy and it works remarkably well. Even PS acknowledges that it is "volume that extends time" and "It (volume) is therefore the closet measurement possible to the start of non-randomness."

     

    I guess I should I should read the second PS book. Most of the work he was doing between the books was more about detecting order flow and was an interesting departure from MP.

     

    Cheers.

  7. Posted

    Ahh Ok I thought I had woken up in some strange groundhog day scenario. It would be great to know what the market was going to do! :D Actually I wondered if it was just my cookies but figured probably James had to do a restore from an earlier backup.

     

    Cheers.

  9. Posted

    Hi Cooter,

     

    Perhaps the offending post was sniped or perhaps it was in another thread and I was imagining it all...stranger things have happened.

     

    In any case the Docs reply is a view of why 'the inner game of trading' is important (probably in response to thebramble) rather than about fear, ego and validation. I would really be very grateful of her views on those issues.

     

    Personally I think the fear of failure is a key issue often mis-identified (as fear of loss for example). This is especially true amongst people who have already been 'succesful' at some other profession. For them money is less (not) an issue but some sort of 'professional validation' is.

     

    Cheers.

  11. Posted

    Doc,

     

    I wrote this post just after you had joined here. Seemed like a couple of people hijacked the thread to ask about your status here. The original post got somewhat forgotten. James' recent post over in trading psychology reminded me of this thread. I wondered if you had a moment if you might comment on my malaise I would be very greatful as it has been hampering my trading for what seems like an eternity.

     

    Cheers.

  12. Posted

    Yes, I am starting yet another thread :)

     

    So most of my life, friends and family seem to have decided that I would be the "successful" "rich" one. -snip-

     

    doing things real time I hold myself back and let myself get emotional. -Snip-

     

    For example, I will make some great trades, then doubt myself and make some stupid trades. - snip - I get so close to a goal, then I somehow purposefully take a step back. I can honestly say I've never accomplished a true long-term goal. I set them, get halfway, then I get bored and do something else. -Snip-

     

    This constant pressure of success from everyone close to me, almost makes me scared to be successful. -Snip-

     

    James I really empathise with what you (could almost be talking about me). You know what? I came to completely the opposite conclusion. I was (actually and still am) scared of failure. I don't want to let all those friends and family down, I don't want to let myself down I don't want to waste all that 'talent' all that potential. Must be hard to live up to all those expectations right? Perhaps the reason you 'get close to a goal then step back' is because it is more comfortable say to yourself "I haven't tackled that yet", easier than "I tried and failed" (letting all those people down in the process).

     

    I think you might enjoy the Carol Dwek Mindset book (Soul reviews it elsewhere). It deals with this sort of stuff from a certain point of view but tackles it head on. Its good. I think you would find it very interesting and relevant regardless whether its failure or success that is bothering you.

     

    Cheers.

  13. Posted

    This is a great idea but I cant help feeling that there is a whole lot more to accountability than just taking (and reporting trades).

     

    General journal forums can 'drift' a bit but the value comes in the comments by others. 'Peer pressure' if you like. I can't help feeling that reading a dozen traders entries and exits is going to make kind of dry reading! Not sure what the answer is but I'll try and support the venture.

  15. Posted

    The POC changes every day. Maybe some would consider that abrupt. Sometimes the market builds what appears to be a POC but later it then builds the real POC at a higher or lower level later. Personally, in the timeframes that I watch the market, I do not consider that abrupt.

     

    This is a core concept -- if you don't understand this -- you do not understand market profile. 'Price' moves in volatile/abrupt fashion, 'value' takes time to build. POC, by definition, does not move as abruptly as price. If you want to call POC movement 'abrupt' --- then what would you call 'price' movement -- 'super-duper abrupt'....?

     

    Hi Dog,

     

    I'm struggling to understand what you mean here what you say seems to support the abrupt PoC point of view.

     

    As you say the PoC requires time to build (as it is defined as the 'most common' or modal point) When a new area of value has been build (by price staying there for long enough for more TPO's to build than at the old PoC) the PoC then moves abruptly (i.e. jumps) from the old PoC price to the new PoC price.

     

    In most instruments price moves up and down tick by tick this is relatively 'smooth'. It is seldom (never for all intents and purposes) that price jumps from the old place of value to the new one. Of course as price moves from one area of value to another it tends to do that fast and volatile but it does at least move through the intermediate price levels. The PoC does not. Once new value has been built it jumps (moves abruptly) to the new level.

     

    Actually Jerry's point was to do with VWAP rather than price. The same argument holds. As more and more volume is done in the new area of value the average is slowly drawn to that level. It is the difference between a modal function and average function. The latter can never be as abrupt.

     

    Looking forward to the next video if a picture is worth a thousand words a video must be worth at least ten times that :D

     

    Cheers.

  16. Posted

    I suffer from the same thing. For me the pattern is this

     

    I trade badly (closing good trades early - very early). I pull away from trading (cut back on hours, taking more and more time off - I often miss trades when I am there) The plan is to get my head together. The final step is finding it hard to return to trading thinking there is a good chance I am going to make the same errors (sadly I have made them for quite a long time). Actually my whole 'undertrading' issue is knowing that I have not dealt with the psych issues that cause me to mis manage trades.

     

    The advice given here is great to get you back in sync with the market. However if there is a more fundamental problem (which is very likely imho) then you may be better off not trading until you identify it and deal with it. If there was not (a problem) I cant help feeling that you would not be able to wait for Monday morning to come round.

     

    A final thought. The success = effort = number of hours worked way of thinking can be detremental to your trading. (actually it almost certainly will as you become more succesful). Depending on the time frame you focus on and your aproach you can be done in a very short time each hour/day/week/month . I know a couple of break out traders that have there days trades planed and orders in within 10 minutes of opening a chart. Its off to the golf course or beach for the rest of the day then. Trading is not an endeavour where the reward is proportional to hours worked (except when learning I guess). I know that is not your problem but there are a couple of replies here that hint it might be, that can result in all sorts of guilt trips and self sabotaging behaviour.

     

    Cheers.

  17. Posted

    I was a bit ambivalent towards this one. As others have said I was a little disapointed on the whole. It seems that Vlad is quite discretionary in his aproach, while he points odd reasons why there might be something he 'does not like' in a setup this side of trading is always hard to get across.

     

    I thought as a beginner book it probably would not be enough to get you trading based on 'reading the tape'. A more experienced trader would probably be familiar with most concepts anyways.

     

    Having said all that I still enjoyed the book as I like reading another traders take on things. It also is based on (what I believe) are solid market principles.

  21. Posted

    Dunno - I thought ABCD corrections where the 'norm' with B & D being the two lows. Actually I found Elliot's stuff fundamentally flawed having said that if you re-write the whole lot with 'move correction move' as the smallest building block (123) it makes much more sense. A standard elliot 12345 then becomes two 123's in the same direction one after the other. Doing this makes everything far more 'fractal' and symetric in nature.

     

    The Mclaren stuff still looks intresting but I am a sucker for price action and market strucure type aproaches. Cant help feeling its all been covered by Gann & Dunnigan et. al. Of course this dosen't diminish the value and should be taken as praise rather than critiscm.

  23. Posted

    Had a quick look at hs web site. Looks interesting and prety much 'in alignment' with my own aproach. I'd quite like to hear a bit more about it Cyotte if you have a moment.

     

    Actualy there are a couple of things thave caught my interest recently its hard to be selective sometime.

  24. Posted

    I can't help feeling that it could be useful. Knowing that the high/low of the day is put in during the first 15 minutes of trading 75% of the time (figures made up on the spot) should be exploitable. Knowing that price trades withing 5 ticks of yesterdays floor pivot 70% of the time likewise. Knowing that if price travels yy points above last weeks high that it is likely to go on and close (daily) above this value xx% of the time etc. etc. etc.

     

    I guess what I am saying is things should be statisticaly significant (i.e. a good high number personally I'd like to see 70% or even 80%+). And that the 'thing' you are measuring should make some sense based on market structure. I guess you have to be pretty careful that you are uncovering some fundamental structure rather than curve fitting some random numbers of course.

     

    I have only ever tried a data mining exercise once as the tools are a little unwieldy (I used Excel). If there where simple tools I might be inclined to try more.

     

    Cheers.

  25. Posted

    Hows this for a technique :- lets assume the Russel is in a reasonable tight range and you are anticipating a move down out of it.

     

    Sell 2 units at the top of the range and cover 1 at the bottom lets say at +1.2 for arguments sake Move stop to -1. If price approaches the top of the range sell 2 more and rinse and repeat.

     

    I have not used this technique for a while but it is possible to build a large multiple position that is essentially risk free (if you count the whole exercise as a single trade). long tight boxy ranges are good for this.

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