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SIUYA
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Posts posted by SIUYA
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Most folks struggle in live real time information processing , timing the market , using judgement in the heat of the moment under stress and duress , and speed of information processing.usually because they dont do their homework or develop an edge, dont know what to expect,
or
are simply not built for fast processing in which case that should have been thought out before hand
or
is it that they suddenly choke when real money is on the line.....
any of them or all of them could occur.
This type of money only belief is passed around , and readers will believe this type of misinformation or lack of adequate information.
what do you mean by this?
thanks.
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Gotcha - I was extrapolating what you normally see, whereby people often think they have something in DEMO and testing but then meddle with it when it comes to live trading...hence most folk mentally cant handle the actual trading of live money.
I have always thought there are two distinct mental capabilities required.....(and maybe that is just one aspect where trading is difficult)
1...you need to have the mental ability to approach trading and investing in the right manner (determination, persistence, ability to think rationally, to test, to understand sometimes complex relationships...etc;) This is the planning mindset, required to develop an edge....
2....you then need the right mental aptitude to be able to then apply a system or strategy that has been shown to work throughout point 1 without mentally disabling yourself (the self sabotage, hyperventilation thoughts people get) once real money gets involved. This to me is the trading mindset the one able to implement it.....
Anyone think that these are not requiring different mental capacities?
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Statistically you will never find any difference between the demo and live accounts , as 99 % end up as losers.They eventually all end up losing.You get some profitable ones on demo , but far greater number of newcomers to demo There are a few short term gainers on live , but the failure rate on live is equally as bad as demo.That proves the point , that mindset/phsyche is 80 % .I'm confused with what you are saying here........
Doesn't the idea that most traders who dont make it on demo OR live trading prove that they have not developed an 'edge' (or lets call it simply a 'profitable repeatable strategy')
and hence its probably not 80% mindset.
If it is 80% mindset after having developed the profitable strategy then demo traders would be more profitable than live traders and they simply go to water when dealing with real money.
Or maybe 80% of the mindset should be as Zupcon suggests is done prior to trading ???
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Did nary a brave soul go long on coffee a few minutes ago after my clear and present warning (made beforehand)..nope...i thought so..the ATM strategy..not only preserving the capital...but spitting ....spitting out the cash..............
where oh where shall i go next? Kentucky? Tenn? New York? Arizona?...central america?
suggestions....
start a separate coffee thread....
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Where did I see a phantom around here? Or was that a phantom of the keyboards? Lol...I fail to understand the role of time in proving a trade wrong. You never know what will happen after you enter a trade, be it 10 seconds or 10 hours later. My experience is that it is a 50-50 proposition each way.
its just another 'if...then...secenario
If you expect something to occur immediately and it does not exit.
if you expect something to occur by X time as you expect it to and it does not exit.
Strategy dependent ....some strategies require immediate gratification and if its not achieved then you are generally wasting time and mental effort is waiting for it.
....and yet in that similar point why is it so often people will sit about on a trade that goes no where and yet get out of a trade before they should that is going their way....
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Now for a different idea in the technicals
I thought I would look at FIBS, having read a whole thread elsewhere on TL
I note both SunTrader and Siyua find FIBS useful.
I like 50% - not a fib - and use it usually to help provide a zone of interest during a retracement of a break out, and mainly in those instruments that exhibit that behaviour
(Otherwise I some time draw them for comfort and cognitive bias)
so in this case your guess for gold is as good as mine, and my cognitive bias would go for 50% retracement from 300 to 1800 or 750 >> 1800-750=1050.
But then allowing for backwardation/contango and inflation this number is just pure BS.
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djarum11 - OEC have a forum this question might have more chance of being answered quickly there????
I dont use OEC or programmed in it so cant really help you,
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3. Currently stuck on this one right now. I opened up with Questrade only to find that they have a terrible platform, and they don't have a data provider that will work with something like ninja trader.Investigated Sierra Charts: Awful (but functional) interface. I have to figure out a good data provider. I am hoping to get futures, equities, and spot prices of gold all in one.
Investigated Ninja: I like the scripting feature. Have same problem with data provider.
It could just be me, but I feel like these platforms (especially Sierra) are heavily influenced by Forex. As I indicated, I really don't understand Forex and doubt that I ever will. I'm hoping I can get by without having to understand too much about Forex.
2, 9, 10, 11. Thanks for the info it really is appreciated!
Yes...most platforms are focused on FX, and some only take futures and FX feeds.....so yes its an issue. Data managament and getting everything you want from a single platform is and probably always will be a pain.
A lot will depend on if you need timely data feeds or can wait for 15-20minute delay on the trades......the cost you wish to incur and what you want to do. (Trust us - the more you find out about the capabilities of certain systems the more you will likely want to do and the more you will find they cant do)
Unfortunately you are best to go through and request a free trial as each system is different and will appeal to different people. (I use Sierra Chart and yes its interface is ugly and old school - but works, they fix things quickly and requests are often replied to - I tried Ninja and MC and others and did not like them - each to their own)
Esignal is expensive but great for coverage of equities, and even using something like interactive brokers and a live data feed coupled with a really cheap end of day data feed might be enough for you.
(Also FWIW - asking ten unrelated questions in a forum might not get the best info reply....tailor make and specify each question in the appropriate forum - after reading the forum as its likely already been answered is best. Plus - ask your broker- if they cant provide satisfactory answers - ask yourself why they cant.....
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Gold is precious and precious always is precious.. , it has to get to that 1500+ level if in a couple of years bt it should in a period of 5 years...what if someone invests a hundred thousand dollars today in it may take out half a million to a million in a 5 years time.....riiiiiiiighttttttt, if i follow you correctly......so a price move from 1200 to 1500 while investing 100k will make 500k+
given that a 25% move will make 5x your money your leverage is what???
Approx 20x or 100k controls 2mil.
......and then tell us what price gold will be when your account is closed due to a margin call.......
approx 5% move down given you are 20x leveraged.
1200 to 1140 ----
so in other words your advice is to take a bet that gold will go to 1500 before it goes to 1140 because its 'has to' as gold is 'precious and precious is always precious'....thanks Lord of the rings.
.........I might be neither a gold bull or bear but this is crazy talk
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i would like the position to exit automatically at the close of the bar, to avoid any slippage from exiting manually. so far i do not see how it can be done however.the only way you will really avoid slippage is to have a limit order waiting in the market.....however you dont know what the close of the bar is so this is impossible. All you can do is tell the computer to automatically close any open position on the close of the bar,
Here you have two choices......
close at a limit price of that bar - this runs the risk of not getting a trade and exiting the position OR
close at market and this will effectively close the open position at a market price which is likely to be near (give or take slippage) the open of the next bar.
To do this will depend on which system you are using.....
hence the cheek y answer i gave you origianlly as you need to provide more information for those trying to help you.
it will likely be a program command something like this.....
If openposition>0 then MarketExitonNextBarOpen
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The solution is to work in a team of 3 people who are totally detached from trading biases and emotions , none of them is responsible for the outcome of the trade or responsible for the losses.This in my opinion would eliminate the mindset problems , since none of them are responsible or attached to the outcome , because they are following a rigid system.One person does the technical analysis , the second person checks the validity of the trade and is system fit , the third person simply inputs the trades and manages the trade as per system.
None of them are given the results of the trades and work for somebody.
......if trading mindsets is 80% of success then this solution you propose means that the 3rd person is probably the one responsible for the success or failure then as managing the trade is what takes most the mental effort if assuming you have a rather systematic and previously tested way of entering trades.
Plus....this also assumes that the person managing the trade is in complete agreement with the first two peoples opinions?
I get the idea - I always thought of an experiment whereby one person puts on trades, the other person takes them off - and neither knows what the other were thinking might be interesting. Imagine the thought process -
Person A- That entry looks good and fits a criteria I have been given, I will buy that, ....move on
Person B - I have a position but I dont know where its enetered or how much PL there is in it, all i need to think about is where is a good place to exit the position.
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Paper gold (ETFs, etc) is getting killed but the word on the street is that physical gold is holding strong with lots of buyers. Anyone else believe this? Let the conspiracies start ...MMS
there are plenty of buyers in the paper gold as well---- its just that the prices for both are still lower despite all the theories.
I think those stinking gold miners should stop mining it and flooding the market with more gold....m...fers manipulating the volume of gold.
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I decided to allocate 10 minutes to answering this - rather than just saying to the OP 'spend more than 10 minutes yourself.'
1....study Japan the last 20 years....and the reality is even the 'experts' cannot decide.
FWIW IMHO deflation is a combination of factors and one of the largest would be the influence of cash hoarding and saving v recirculating $ by active investments targeting growth as opposed to safety first. (but this is my morning cup of tea theory)
2...possible reasons....liquidity constraints, shorting constraints, FX, a couple of poor ticks, time differences, a possible arbitrage does exist
3....biggest cost will be likely be exchange fees. Platforms are cheap for what they offer. Possible ones to look at ; sierra charts, multicharts, tradestation, ninja trading, Esignal.....you choose and a lot will depend on the instruments and frequency of trading required.
(4 mins up)
4....ignore - make up your own mind
5...and 6....see platforms and what they offer.....also i suggest you built your own cheat sheet if you can. Others will probably have deficiencies and it depends on what you are after and how responsive or complicated you want them to be
7....depends on broker....often you may only be risking your margin + PL, or you may have 100% FX exposure...
8...fuck you you lazy git.....
9....I also want insider information but hey you cant have it all. Try ...
Forex Economic Calendar @ DailyFX
10....if its ITM and it expires most places have automatic expiration...but hey if you dont want the money i am sure your broker will happily keep it. You must understand the systems /exahnges/ broker processes.....its your money and no one will look after it more than you.
11...reasonable and financial markets dont go together.
different exchanges, different rules, and not everything follows rules. See 10.
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if these Q only took you 10 minutes to understand then you should have only another week of study to understand everything there is in finance and will likely then make millions. I suggest a good book to read.... When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management: Roger Lowenstein: 9780375758256: Amazon.com: Books
Welcome
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tell your broker
tell your computer system
use an alarm clock
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Hello EveryoneI just joined Traders Lab today.
Am interested in trading options on NYSE.
Previously took a beginners options trading course to learn the basics and some strategies.
Been paper trading those strategies for over eight months now with very limited success and lately, a string of consecutive losses.
I have stopped paper trading to consider how to improve my trading.
Despite my record to date, I still enjoy trading. But feel stuck. How should I move forward? Acquire more knowledge? Continue practising the strategies that I have learnt?
I briefly considered signing up for more options education courses but do not think paying for more courses and mentorship again is the solution.
Grateful for any advice on how to move forward and/or online education resources.
Thank you.
Everyone gets stuck at times and knowing where to go as a begineer is always an issue.
IMHO - dont sign up and pay for any courses until you have done your own homework first. there is plenty of free info on the web.
Work out what style of trader you want to be, how active you want to be and how much time you can allocate to this.
eg; do you want to auto trade a computerised system?
discretionary trade longer term trends, scalp, use options, use stocks or futures, buy and hold, day trade, swing trade, ......
There are lots of styles and strategies - if you answer the one that makes money then you have missed the point. You need to think about what to focus on, otherwise there is a lot of information out there.....and time is a valuable asset.
Also - why have you lost money? You should review this for insights into what you are doing and maybe why you are doing it.....are you long or short options, do you have enough money to cover costs, is the market suited to your methodology.....is options trading even the right thing to start out with?
This will at least give you something to focus your self education on...and never be afraid to ask questions as the only dumb question is one that is not asked.
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Hello guys...Is forex trading danger for investment??
Only if you dont learn why you are investing ....as per any investmentbut particularly in respect of FX.....dont be sucked in by the amount of leverage you WILL be offered. Just because it is available does not mean you have to use it....until you know what you are doing.
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Using that logic then everything could be considered a system. Throwing darts at a board randomly can be considered a system.No there is no complexity with it.
What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen? Well I never think the market "should" do anything . If I get in and it goes south my stop gets hit and I am out .....done move on to the next one.
What happens if x,y,z happens? What if it does? What if Venus crosses the center of the Milky way when price hits my target? The trade either works out or it doesn't
what happens if a string of losses occur? Then a string of losses occur. Big deal. I have already looked at a few years of data to see how it played out and it looks fine to me.The problem with many traders is that because there method fails a few times they give up. Not a good idea.
what happens if the regime/market mood changes? That's an emotional game which I do not play. That stuff does not matter to me. The trade will either present itself or not. Market mood does not concern me.
There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye No, actually there is not . People tend to complicate things are are quite simple.
IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up. Guess we will find out. I highly doubt it though as the same strategy has been used by by floor traders for decades ( according to him)
whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down.
Maybe you should try this out and see. I would be willing to wager that it probably would produce pretty good results.you do realise that in answering these questions it has made the simple system more complex....
....just by the nature of it being a strategy with tactics means it has some complexity....and for you to have tested it by looking at a few years of data means that there is a system to it......in other words its not just random longs or shorts with random stops.....
Most systems are incredibly simple - and it always amazes me that a simple system can often enter at similar levels or have similar PL returns as a very complex one. (win or loose)...hence you may as well keep it simple
I think you do make a good distinction.....Your reactions to the system or the series of trades does not need to be any more complicated than it should be.....and that definitely has value. (Some may disagree here but hey thats a forum
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What if the method is not complex? What if it is a simple as buy here , sell here done. what then?That is simple.....
.....how do you then quantify the price levels?
What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen?
How do you scale it?
What happens if x,y,z happens?
what happens if a string of losses occur?
what happens if the regime/market mood changes?
.....it all sounds like its a system that the orders are given to you....
Just be careful of these systems.
There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye.....and quantifying everything is usually the stopper.....
possibly why most cant really share what they do (not because they are not happy to) - and why there is the debate about intuition etc.
IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up.
whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down.
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Hello SIUYA:“so Henry - the question still remains.”
Your post looks more like a 10 part question to me.
"What is the difference between the Fed printing it and the banks printing it when it comes to digital money? regardless of where it goes.....
This is the point - on one hand we hear the banks are sitting on excess cash, on the other hand they are deficient in their capital ratios and dont have enough shareholder capital.....people cant make up their mind."
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I will try and answer the first part question even though I am not quite certain what you are really asking in the above line. ...................
If you mean what is the difference between the way the Fed makes money out of thin air and the way the banks make money out of thin air. Then that is a different question.
Henry - the concept is fairly simple in relating it to this thread...its 1 q....but with lots of consequences.
Everyone blames the Fed for printing money - but - have the banks effecitively been doing the same thing independently for many years using credit and digital money?
Now if its simply that the banks are using less of it in the real world, the Fed is stepping in - and OVERALL there has been no net increase in the economy - hence the inflationary fears from gold bulls maybe unfounded. and the
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Does printing money by the Fed have the same inflationary effect as providing digital credit in the form of the derivatives markets that banks have been doing for years?
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Now extending from this
- if the Fed is idiotic, then that would make the banks also idiotic.
- printing money is bad, underwriting an economy and ensuring stability is that such a bad thing.
- getting hooked on the crack of stimulus is not great
- maybe the real cause of the problems is those who spend it - the politicians, those who vote them in and ask them to spend it - the people, and those who do everything to avoid helping pay for the spending - the companies
- take this as my idiotic solution.Simply parroting that the government should keep entirely out of the economy and using the Austrian economists arguments is old hat....and it does not answer the question I have.....you dont even seem to understand what question i am asking and then throw back a heap of information.....thanks for nuttin
....but back to gold.....
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Why would the gorillas or chicken hawks attack this? Because that's what they do. There are many on this site, and other sites, that live to counter everything they can get their hands on. Up is down , black is white , left is right and so on. Sometimes I enjoy their banter but often it is just hot air spewed from failures and such.
Not singling you out Gekko as this can apply to anyone - but this is an open internet for discussion- you wont get any group think here, dissension is usually the norm.
If you want opinions presenting one side of the coin and a bunch of yes men then talk to a broker.
You got what you asked for - you presented something then practically asked people to attack it......if its that simple and that good it should stand on its own two feet and folks may or may not agree you with you......simple right.
Getting you knickers in a knot will just frustrate you and distract you from trading - there are a million other sayings such as if you cant stand the heat ....blah blah. ..... but as in markets - in forums we all get what we want from them.
You asked, you received and then you get upset at it......you are making a simple thing complex.
...and so far you admit to sharing the system with only one other person.....i am surprised 100s of folks are not sending you PMs now. :
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As for simplicity...
I agree with what you say - often its over complicated, but you have to understand the complexities of a system before you can simplify it.
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Oil manipulation.....
Europeans Oil Benchmarks Go From Trusted to Tainted - Bloomberg
crucial items of note -
“because markets trusted” them
"It seems that sometimes things need to be checked.”
and "The warning went unheeded until May" :doh:
The process “is everything but transparent,”
....it reads like a what not to do.
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slightly off topic - maybe - ....but here is a good description of what happens at a basic level regards banks, balance sheets, leverage and what they can and cannot and will try and get away with.....and why it is relevant to the ideas of inflation and the FED and banks printing digital money.
U.S. Should Show Some Ambition on Bank Leverage - Bloomberg
The banks probably are sitting on extra cash reserves because they should reduce their leverage....and contrary to popular opinion some of these things take years to reduce....
If my thoughts on printing digital money is right then the only reason why the fed is full of idiots is because they dont make money from their printing (or will they?), while the banks did....or does it means the banks are full of idiots as well because they simply printed money.....and blew up the economy before the Fed.....
So back to gold.....
maybe the banks should be forced to hold a certain percentage of real assets like gold.....maybe rather than central banks holding gold, investment/retail banks should.....??? silly.....or if you believe in manipulation you think they already do.
I still blame the accountants for the make believe creative accounting that plagues the world. :haha:
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so Henry - the question still remains.
What is the difference between the Fed printing it and the banks printing it when it comes to digital money?
regardless of where it goes.....
This is the point - on one hand we hear the banks are sitting on excess cash, on the other hand they are deficient in their capital ratios and dont have enough shareholder capital.....people cant make up their mind.
If the banks are reducing their balance sheets - because they effectively printed money in the past by using and offering more leverage then is there simply a transfer from the banks to the Feds balance sheet. ...and also that golds run was it merely catching up with previous inflation caused by this and any inflation that it lagged behind, when the banks printed the money during the 2000-2010 - helped with the fear buying of gold as well as the asset allocation decsions by funds to go to gold ETFs.
If so - at some stage if the Fed keeps buying, the balance tips, OR the banks start lending again - then there will be more inflation, and gold will likely rise again (no surprises there).....but gold will only rise relative to other currencies and if it holds its value just in regards inflation only then there is no real gain in real terms. You are just keeping up with inflation....because for many years gold has been a poor inflation hedge.
So if there is inflation gold will likely go up....so will any real asset.
If there is inflation and your wages go up in step with this, then cash is still ok.
This is always the dilema of many wealthy families - how to hang on to it. (I discount funds here as they have different incentives)
There real issue is how the Fed gets out of QE - how the banks take up the slack again and the effects on the economy......
BUT the point is - every gold bull blindly rattles off that QE is printing money, the Fed is going to cause inflation and we are all doomed......
The reality is so far, they have been wrong recently - gold has corrected, and even if they are right gold can be shown to be a poor reflection of inflation except over the very long term, making money is different to simply holding onto wealth and maybe, just maybe the assumption of money printing is completely incorrect.
Over the long run - gold will probably go up - but if you are a permanent bull or bear in anything you are simply deluding yourself that you are looking for reasons to justify your own beliefs as opposed to looking at what is happening.
Personally - I think gold was simply a crowded trade, it became 'over valued' as fear subsided and i hope it overshoots on the downside to create more opportunity.....what that downside is who knows? (note how i try not to worry too much about fundamental justifications
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The world has excess factory capacity.All the major central banks are printing money
Many euro nations as well as China, and until recently the U.S., have excess residential housing stock.
And then on top of that most of the multinationals are flush with cash on their balance sheets.
So who is left for the banks to loan to?
:shrug:
this is an ongoing debate in central banks at present - is it a demand issue or a supply issue?
Re the multinationals being flush with cash - that just reinforces that money is inefficiently allocated due to taxation issues.....in other words cash is sucked out of the economy and not used - hence people who need cash cant get it and those who have it are either sitting on it or speculating in a search for higher yields.
I think only history will tell.....
However - if this is the case (trying to keep on topic) - whats the effect on gold?
With rising interest rates gold is even less attractive....especially if its a crowded trade.
The search for yield seems to be the order of the day at the moment.....another derivative bubble in the happening?
Trading Mindsets is 80 % of Success
in Trading Psychology
Posted
I would disagree with you and say we are actually very good at processing information, we are very efficient at it.....the problem is that often as you mention with cognitive biases we can delude ourselves with the results.
Training......
This is why you should back test, walk forward and also review and help minimise the harmful biases.....but even when this is done, sometimes some people are just not very good at handling the stresses involved in trading with real money....
Which I think this is the point you are getting at....but its only half the story.
Training, practice and review is required. This is discussed often but I would bet that many dont review their trades in a constructive way and hence are wasting their time. They dont review what they where thinking and asking themselves if they are simply miss reading the markets or deluding themselves etc....which is why i think the trading mindset is partially an issue as to why traders become idiots.
The other mindset for preparation and planning is just as important, as you need to train the mind to try and expel the idiot within - that which revenge trades, doubles up etc You cant just force him to stop. You need to give the idiot a reason to go away.
.....because if you trade on a demo and loose money and then still think you can make money live as it has no effect on you then you really have issues as a trader before you even begin.(not directly at you personally)