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SIUYA

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by SIUYA

  2. Posted

    Do you know what I have or don't you ?

    .................

    You do not know , that I can buy you and your services with just a wink.If you need a beaver , I will throw in Zupcon as your bait , both of u will be merry and happy.

     

    I appreciate the response, but I just disagree with you in what you think you have, and your last comment tells me all I need.

    Good luck and good bye.

  3. Posted

    I have spent 3 years of my life on developing automated systems , and I have 44 expert profitable advisors , so knowledge on this subject is good .Trading is an art , the art can be best traded by visualization .A picture is worth a thousand words , and trading set ups are worth thousands of words , with context and confluence , by the time the codes are input , there are too many conflicting lines of code to make it work with precise entries and timing.In fact computers work on historical information , by the time the set up appears valid on a software , the information does not allow precisely timed entries..

     

    There are so many contradictions here ....its confusing.

    You have 44 profitable automated strategies - but you cant use them on a computer?

    You need context, there are too many conflicting lines of code and by the time a computer picks it up its too late???........by the time the codes are input....ummmm???

     

    That would mean they are not automated, they require a lot of discretion and hence you are back where you started. Having to hire people not to follow rules but to allow for context and discretion.

    Plus I thought previously you thought people were unable to process the information in the markets.... and hence the original post?

     

     

     

    As regards the the pay and staff , I am taking on a fifth person to oversee the the other four.This is working reasonably at present and should progress this week.after training.

     

    Once the above is set up and running by itself , I want to rent an office in London and work with a private coach /trader , here I unveil my £2k profit per day trading method.That is £500 k profit annually(without compounding) on a £100 k account ( my backer wired already ).I want a trainer /mentor during live stressful pip match , to help me stay disciplined during the pip fights.

     

     

    Oilfx

     

    Again confusing....

    Its working, but you dont yet have an office

    once its setup and running by itself....then you unveil your method....WTF??:spam:

    Your backer --- I thought you were the backer?...

    You want a trainer to stay disciplined - I thought the automated strategies were easy to follow any idiot could do it.... ---- what about the other four plus overseer?

    Already I think you have blown most of your winning trading budget on data, computers, office, salaries, trainer, overseers.

     

     

    ............................

    I am always happy to give the benefit of the doubt that you are not scamming anything, but the only other option I can conclude from this is that you are a dreamer. (nothing wrong with that, but dreams and trading are a dangerous mix)

     

    Not to discourage you but you might want to give this some more thought before committing money to such a venture.

  4. Posted

    I am actually going down this route , as there are many reasonably competent technical analysts (for entry signals) and data entry assistants (to manage trades) and some are willing to work a free week , to see their skills.This is better than hiring a pro , who can away anytime to go on his own.

     

    You are in a catch 22....

    ....you do realise this has taken you back to where you where in the original post.

     

    1....and you are right - most pros either wont take on your system as it either does not work, does not work for them or if it does they will then reverse engineer it and do it themselves. These days if its a simple system its not hard for anyone to automate and test most things.

     

    2...If you believe enough in the system that it works and can be followed by a monkey (or automated) then you dont need to pay a lot.....but then it can be automated.

    If it requires discretion and needs more than a robot to work, then you are back at point 1, or it will cause the system to not work in which case you are loosing again.

     

     

    Everything is a trade off.....assuming you have a profitable system that should able to be followed by anyone - then you dont have a trading mindset problem but a business model problem.

    (My brother is in the construction industry and often complains his employees dont think or care - i tell him he does not pay most of them enough to think and then ask him why it is he works for himself, and not for others - its a trade off) :)

    Good luck.

  5. Posted

    Unfortunately guys/gals 10 coin flips is not going to tell you much. You need something

    like 1000 flips to get any realistic statistical data.

     

    are you kiddin!

    You think we are after statistical data - leave that alone - we are after a system.....something that will take all the hard work out it and be a money making machine.

    if it works then we have a system that we can collectively market, sell and make plenty and show to us that you can make money being a complete idiot with totally random systems.....at least thats enough to fool some.....:)

  6. Posted

    I'd love to get involved, but I'm a little short on change . . . Could anyone possibly lend me a coin?

     

    BlueHorseshoe

     

    I did one better for you Blue....

    the first serial number on the £20 note I pulled out of my pocket started with a D - hence you can have a sell day (D for down)

    The last number ended in 1 which would give you Thursday 1st....

    Random enough??

     

    Blue - sell 1st August.

  7. Posted

    in that case i may have to pull the plug on the whole thing as i will never earn respect...never have..so what makes me the think i'll start now..i ain't gonna bottle feed the babies you know...bunch of milksops...:rofl: :rofl: time to go fishing before i get :angry:

     

    c'mon Patucca - you always say you dont care and now you are wanting some award - hint hint- probably awarded for number of posts at a guess - and are all steamed up.

    Boo hoo

    As in trading persistence pays - but as you never follow the normal rules you may as well give up......:haha:

  12. Posted

    I trade as if the markets are cyclical -- the price is hard to predict but we do see movement either up down or sideways. So therefore I do not try and pick a direction but instead chose a strategy that allows me to have]both sides of the market. So to accomplish this I use different strategies depending on choice of the underlying. For example using a future contract long on the ES and buying 2 ES puts to have a close to equal market exposure which may be measured with the delta on the options and the delta of the future being close to zero delta. Now with that position the market is eventually going to give me a profit on one side -- either the puts benefit from a move down in price of the future or the long future will give me a profit on a price move up.I can monitor this with the change in delta and when the delta changes by 8 or 10 I capture that profit by adjusting the trade back to the original deltas. On the ES this provides a profit of say $200 and I then wait for the market to move however it wishes until the delta again changes to offer another profit opportunity. Another strategy which I use will be a pairs trade -- such as trading 2 NQ contracts short against 1 ES contract short. The ratio can be 2 to 1 or 5 NQ to 2 ES futures. So again the strategy is non-directional and is based on the belief that markets are cyclical. The ratios are based on the point values: 20.00 a point on the NQ and 50,00 a point on the ES. So 5 NQ's equal $100 and 2 ES contracts equal $100. On the 2 to 1 ratio it is close enough as then it is $40 vs. $80. I have a mechanical system to pick which contract I will chose short and which one long -- but it really doesn't matter -- again to the fact that the NQ and ES normally trade in lockstep so when there is divergence (one stronger than the other) there will be a reversion to the mean. In all my trades I need no stops and both of these as examples illustrate the fact that duration trumps direction. These trades give me "time to be right" and will not shake me out of a winning trade with a stop being hit. Perhaps this very confusing to those who hold to the belief that the proper way to trade is to pick a direction and use a stop. I can demonstrate the profitability of this strategy of trading easily by showing actual live examples but that will necessitate some way of posting live trades. Meanwhile just try it in a paper account and you will see it is hard to lose money. Another advantage to these trades is the fact that you receive about 85% margin relief from the clearing firm. This proves that the trades carry much less risk as the margin is to protect the broker from loss. I hope this illustrates the point in a way that makes it somewhat clear. There are rules that make the trades very mechanical and when followed it generally produces consistent profits. The more volatile the markets you trade the more opportunity for profit. So CL (crude oil futures) works well. The reason, of course, is the more swings (since you are holding both sides long and short) the more opportunities to take profits and readjust your trade deltas. Now you can easily see that you have profit on one side of the trade and a loss on the other side of the trade and therefore how can that produce profits. The answer is in the cyclical nature of the markets -- you take profits mechanically when the market gives you the profit and you are left with an "unrealized loss" on the opposite side of the trade. Then the market eventually swings the other way and the loss on that side becomes a profit and you "rinse and repeat". I doubt that many will grasp this from this post but hopefully at least it will shed some light on the subject. :2c:[/quote

     

    I follow what you're saying.But how do you cope when a market keeps grinding in one direction as bull markets can do for long periods of time?

    Q2- do you think the FED believes the market is random?

    Q3- do you believe that after years of trading it's impossible to become more skilled at reading a market or is it that those who do believe they can are just kidding themselves

    and those who conclude they can't are proof that it cannot be done?

     

    ..................

    The first strategy with the options is simply trading gamma - you are offsetting the time decay of the options against what will become historical volatility....a good strategy when used with some leverage for those days when you wake up and a crash occurs. Grinding markets probably wont hurt too much, but will still cost none the less.

    the other pairs trading strategy with some statistical arb thrown in also makes sense ---- IMHO - --- it looses it when the talk about unrealised v realised profits come in.

    Accounting fudges are delusional.

     

    Its simple if you have a pairs trade and you take off one leg at a profit and leave the other one until it also goes into a profit or back to BE then no matter how you cut and dice it - you have a simple directional trade in which you are crossing your fingers and may as well have done that in the first place once you change the nature of the trade.

     

    I do think ticks has done the right thing in a few respects but many then fall into the trap of changing what they do and not understanding it.

    Put simply - if markets are cyclical in nature and you are willing to risk they will swing back then wait put on the single trade that you would do when and if you would take off the first leg of the pairs trade - end result is the same with less brokerage.

  14. Posted

    SIUYA

     

    I have a system that makes pips on back tests , so I paid peanuts and hired a bunch of monkeys .The system made 30 % in a month of back testing .I know the system can be implemented in live trading , and can make 30 % every month without compounding and can be repeated every month .

     

    Zuppy will given a yacht and a flat in Peurto Banus.

     

    This week I have hired a forum moderator from one of the forums , he is intelligent and experienced , I have offered upto $50 k a year for the right people

     

    Where can I find the right people to implement my system?I am from a family on this list.

     

    Africa?s Richest People List - Forbes

     

    Sorry....you are from a family on this list and you cant find someone to implement a system that makes such good money....?????

    You cant do it?

     

    If you are from a wealthy family then you might have a better chance of finding the right people at the hedge funds that already trade and manage money for such families.

    Put the onus on the to find the right people implement the trades and have them explain why the live trading does not match the back tests.

     

    So you have not tested this live?

    Is it scalable? (Lets not worry about the compounding part - what is the capacity of the account assuming a fixed capital amount)

     

    If you like maybe I will trade it for you for a 20% cut of the profits. Send me your account details and I will organize your bank to transfer the money, set up the necessary contracts, separate administrator, auditor etc - I am fully licensed

    You supply the risk capital I will push the buttons.

    Happy to be a robot if its that good.

     

    ........................

    now let me put my non believer skeptical hat on for more due diligence.

  15. Posted

    Assume these as facts , market trends only 20 % of the time , 80 % of potential trending entries fail or just about break even.. Devise you position size , so if you have 4 to 8 non performers or losses , you can eventually recover the losses and can survive up to 30 losses in a draw down.

     

    It can be done , rather a martingale revenge trading system.

     

    Yes the 80/20 :doh: :offtopic:

    Most trend following systems when tested might be more like 40/60 or 30/70

    Trend following systems that might have a ratio of winners to losers can get this same ratio in a trending market depending on what the markets do.....rattling off markets only trend 20% of the time is pointless.

    Its as worthless as saying 80% of options expire OTM therefore its a low risk trade to sell them,

    Even with these ratios - when markets do trend and these are of course long term trend following systems - not applicable to day trading - they actually make good money without a doubling up of the losers (Matingale system). In fact they cut their losses.

     

    trend following as a strategy is usually about as far from martingale as you can get.

     

    Maybe this comment says it all "There is a version of a betting sequence which works for trading , but the information about it is private." - the secret sauce

  16. Posted

    Siyua

     

    If people are given a profitable system to follow , and paid to follow the system , why do people have problems ?

     

    A rigid system with a set of rules can not be followed by hired staff , why?

     

    People according to you can not follow systems.

     

    No!

     

    Most trades are 20% mechanics (system) & 80% is the individual psyche and psychology. If it was not correct , 10 different people would not execute the same system with different results , whereas 10 computers would execute it the same.

     

    School Exams and results results :Same teachers and lectures in same school , but you get 40 different sets of marks..

     

    According to Zupcon from his own experience even ten computers wont get the same results....and your example of of school exams has way too many variables to really be worth a comparison IMHO. Plus unless its multiple choice marking it is too subjective.

    (example I once re wrote an essay for a practice trial run copied word for word from someone who got 19/20 I received 13/20 - it reinforced my faith in the education system)

     

    But you raise an interesting point....

     

    It would be fair to say most is mental - but first you need to have BUY IN from the participants. They need to understand and believe a system - simply handing it to them will not mean they will be successful.....and the results are not a mental defect or problem that needs to be fixed.

     

    Simply employing someone to run a system will not work for other reasons such as.

     

    ....and we have to assume the system is profitable over the long run....

    .....and that people understand this, and know how it works.....(the buy in)

    ..... and that people are paid and also know that they will still have a job after diligently applying those rules even after a string of losses ( Hence another variable as to why people often dont follow rules)

    .....and that the system has no discretion - other wise why not give it to a computer.

     

    If you have ever heard from people trading in prop desks - often they reduce their stress through a simple mechanism - telling themselves - 'hey its not my money'.....

    and when it comes to hiring people - pay peanuts and get monkeys - or are you saying you will pay top dollar for people to simply follow some rules?????

     

     

    When if you have a simple set of rules that can be easily replicated and followed with very little discretion then UNLESS it can be shown that by using discretion and overriding those rules someone can get a better performance than the application of the rules then the default position should be to follow those rules.....why then dont people follow those rules?

     

    I think it boils down mainly one of or a combination of -

    ...they dont agree with the rules in the first place as they did not develop them (buying into an idea is crucial in many areas)

    ....they think despite evidence they can improve on the rules (think of human history and development and progress. I dont know if this is something that we wish to alter.)

     

    As to why someone who is employed and told to blindly follow the rules - easy - fire them when they dont and find someone who can - thats the joy of that side of the job :(

     

    ............................................

    ........................

    For trend following.....from your post# 40

     

    """"By your post , trend following is practically impossible , 80 % of potential trend entries fail.Technical analysis is junk science or voodoo science , where cognitive biases distort perception of technical set ups , hence why mindset is 80 %.

     

    Without the 80 % mindset , you can not use crap science.""""

     

    Curtis Faith a turtle trader who supposedly was the most successful of them understood his role was to follow the rules - and thats why he did well. He has also discussed where he knew it was hard to follow those rules, and why many did not.

    The others did not follow the rules - the trend following worked - but people did not follow the rules because

    Plenty of people have developed successful and not so successful trend following systems - they developed them! Riding the drawdowns on such system usually cause people to stop or to tweak them for all the wrong reasons.

     

    I think (and going back to your first post and linking it to here) is you are looking at the difference of why people need to meddle and make excuses when given a system....as opposed to the mental aspect required to actually do the work of understanding....and this is where the hard work is.

     

    (Like I said its mental and we may be talking about who is on first - but all the mental aspect is as to why we get under stress when actually trading. Most of it is because people don know what they are doing BEFORE the start, or reviewing and positively tweaking when they do trade. Alternatively this could simply be a business discussion about why is it that employees will not do what they are told) :)

  17. Posted

    When it comes to trading and processing trading information , we can not process information without biases , stress and emotions induced responses. Only psychologists who understand how we behave under stress and our responses under stress and emotions will understand this in detail..

     

    Absolutely - that is why you need to test and train and review and not just blindly follow a system....

    ....and WTF "only psychologists" - you dont need to be a psychologist to understand and get this.

    Also here is a hint - test, train and review - it will help reduce the stress without the need of a professional. As to what to test - your own system!

     

     

    When we process trading information , our information processing is contaminated , we are also trading information on uncertainty .Not only is our information processing contaminated , we are adding fuel to fire with this contamination , we are adding our biases ,fears,greed ,ego ,emotions and cognitive biases to the information processing.

     

    Welcome to life ......which is why when it comes to trading for most people they need to do more than blindly a system......and you know what.....the fact that the markets wok with uncertainty means that we have to constantly do more than blindly follow.

    You have merely introduced another bias by thinking we can accurately measure, model and perfectly map a system than can be blindly followed.

     

    No matter how good a system , if 10 different traders are given to use the same system , the 10 traders will have different results.In the case of processing trading information , the results show 95 % of traders lose

     

    ....and here is the point.......

    just blindly following a system that is not yours and understood by you based on how you think markets work it is almost doomed to failure. If you can give a system that works to 10 different computers would the results be different?

     

    The point is - if you dont have a system that you know, understand and believe in because you developed it then you are likely to not follow the system......and that is the problem.

    People think I just need to follow the system - why cant i follow the system - i need help following the system......

    Its because they dont really believe in or know the system - they dont know them selves and the reasons why they do things and how they think the market works.

     

    The work is far more than simply being 80% mental when it comes to blindly following....and that is just one reason why X% of traders fail.

     

    If they developed any system themselves most would be likely to give up before they even start.

     

    ................

    A lot of this clearly is revolving around discretionary systems as computerized automated ones should not be the issue - assuming they work.

    We might be like Laurel and Hardy here discussing who's on first but I get from your first post that you think it is about following a system, whereas i think its about developing one.

  18. Posted

    It occurred to me recently that "trading mindset" is just the voice in your head.Everybody has a voice in their head,traders and non traders.Chattering away all day..................

     

    That voice in your head never shuts up..

     

    If the voices in you head are whats interesting Ekhart Tolle is worth a read (thanks Zdo for the reference)

    Personally I dont get into some of his stuff but it can be interesting and relevant and it does talk about the voices.....

     

    .....no it does not

    .....yes it does

    .....why I ought to wring your neck you m....f ,

    ..... stop it your only hurting yourself.

    ......no I am not

    .....its me I am hurting which is myself.....

     

    stuff this both of us are going back to trading - the voice in the head there is much easier to understand ....

    yeah....plus you r stutting to blubbber like zdo...peeps

     

    have a good weekend

  19. Posted

    Friday ramblings....

    aiming for consistency is what will probably kill you......you might get 8 mths of profits and then blow it all.

     

    why not take half the money and go for a big kill early on.....try and make the 100% in a few months. Then stop.

    Odds are this is a better bet than aiming for consistency - as others has mentioned this game is generally not about consistency. Its about waiting for opportunities.

    just a thought......

  20. Posted

    agree with that ....only thing is......are they reliable? .........if you check the latest Societe Generale reports they were all wrong :crap:

     

    then they are reliable if they are all wrong. :haha:

  21. Posted

    The Secret Sign That Gold Has Bottomed

     

    I wonder if somebody with a bit more experience than me in Options, would care to comment on this article

    thanks

    bobc

     

    too many variables to tell in half these things - never stops people from trying i guess....

    plus - snbc and 'secret' must be right ;)

     

    Quick and dirty analysis....

    they say gold bulls are selling puts and hence crushing volatility ......which means they must be bullish and hence its near a bottom.....

    I could reply.....

    ...put sellers are willing to buy gold at lower prices (but not here) and are prepared to sell puts to accept delivery at these levels. Which would mean they might think its simply a good yield play or are willing to step in at lower levels.

    If they were really bullish they would be more likely to buy calls and get real upside - this would increase the vix......

     

    Its all really a guess.....but if enough people think that this is a good level to put some risk on by selling puts then it could create a vacumm due to a lack of buyers, and put covering down below - might be even more bearish if they are wrong.

    Impossible to tell as we dont know their motivations, their hedges, their previous positions.

    All we know is that volatility usually ebbs and flows.

     

    as the writer says... "Traders have begun selling put options at inflated premiums, because they expect a turnaround in the gold market to occur. " - maybe a relevant question is - are the inflated premiums there for a reason ? Its all about risk transfer really.

     

    :2c: - Without the normal doom and gloom - people are worried that the bankers are a little bit hooked on the crack of QE, or the economy is or dont know how to really get off it - indecision never a bearish gold sign.

  22. Posted

    Brain science experts will provide more information on why processing so much information , during stress and duress with human emotions involved , with all the multi multi tasks information to be processed simultaneously ,is not humanly possibly.

     

    Science facts: Our brains are bombarded by an estimated 2,000,000 bits of information every second. Processing such a huge amount of information would cause the brain to “freeze”. Therefore, we delete, distort and generalise most of it down to around 134 bits of information.What this means is that we choose only a tiny proportion of the total amount that is available to us, and those 134 bits of information we allow in to our brains are the things that determine what we call reality.

     

    If our brains are not wired naturally to trading , we can't process all the multi tasks information , no amount of pre-planning and prepreparation is going to work in live trading.

     

    This leads us to the mindset of the trader being the most important criteria in trading .Most of us go into trading and gambling , because we are undisciplined , if we had the discipline we would not touch trading.Why would you want to treat your self with losses ,negative emotions and rot our lives away sitting infront of a computer all day ?.We need a life!

     

    If this is true then thats why a trader should test, train and review - so things become automatic. The brain of a 5 year old does not need to understand physics, gravity and such to ride a bike but they can do it.

    We are not wired naturally to assess risks and probability - in fact we generally do it poorly- again this is why we test - to convince ourselves of it....and one of the reasons why you cant just pick up a set of instructions to trade and follow them. Probably the same as driving a car, bike, plane.....

    By training well you eliminate the noise and concentrate on whats important.....not sure what else to say. ......

     

    Problem is most dont or dont do it effectively - there is another thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/16609-humbled-trading-log-40.html#post182965 which for me is why the mindset pre/post actual trading is important as well.

    ......................

     

    .....as to getting a life - while I dont like the negative aspects of trading I much prefer this to a dead end corporate job where you still have 2million bits of info and nothing to apply it to or one sitting around doing nothing, and as such I understand the trades off involved and still choose to do it.....is it addiction or enjoyable..... go figure. :)

  23. Posted

    My Blog

     

    Well , now that Patuca has left the forum, I can safely post this interesting article on Gold

    There is lots more on KING WORLD NEWS for the more intellectual member. (That sort of leaves me out :))

    regards

    bobc

    Sorry, I cant get my hyperlink to work (BBC...born before computers)

     

    Bob did you realise that this link coincided with your post number 666 :roll eyes:

     

    :2c: I only needed to look at the King World news home site - 5 articles listed about the shocking news behind gold.....how its going higher......no need to read further for me. But I did....according to their business section the only business in the world concerns gold :doh:

    Another one trick pony with a fixed set of beliefs. Which is all well and good, but it does not help trading gold. It merely reinforces a SHTF belief......

     

    Me thinks they might be better spending their time doing other things before the world goes down in flames.....but hey - each to their own. :)

     

    Patucca will be back - he is probably just stashing his gold somewhere....dont know why if he is 70 years old though. :)

  24. Posted · Edited by SIUYA

    Either way, the end-goal is to determine if price has the “strength” to proceed in the direction you expect it to move.

     

     

    IMHO - You could probably summarize most posters good advice in this one aim or goal.

     

     

    If you dont have this basic goal worked out as a rationale for how you think market moves then applying the wrong method (or any random method) will be useless.

    Repeating this will just be insanity.

    Looking at any pattern in isolation without consideration of this rationale and trying to objectively measure it will just cause frustration.

    Forcing a method that does not suit your rationale will be like trying to force a square peg in the round hole....why do it.

     

    As the poster said " I have no sense of what will happen next." - probably as the rationale for how the market moves has not been thought through.

     

    Your rationale may in fact be completely bonkers - but if it makes sense to you, can be shown then that with some money management and simple risk management you can then tweak how best to extract money from the market when it fits your rationale using various appropriate methods then perfect....

     

    To use the previous market trading floor and fruit barrow picture analogy....if you dont have an idea of why others will regularly buy off you at a higher price than you paid - then you will be left with nothing but rotting eggplants...no matter how good your sales techniques, quality of produce or location, location location is.

  25. Posted

    The type of opinion you provide is brandished in most internet marketing sites , the views of real psychologists may vary considerably.

     

    I have never said that it is entirely due to money involved in a live account , in fact the whole thread is not about money , the first post shows it is about a load of other psyche issues.and money is not even mentioned in the first post..

     

    even if its brandished in most internet sites most dont do the work required even before trading, and after it....or if they did then they just went through the motions....your original post pretty much confirms that from what I can read.

     

    You list a bunch of excuses from traders that you think are idiotic and that they should be fired if they dont follow the system they are given.

     

    "Trading and successful trading is a simple process , it is the mindset of the trader which prevents them from being successful, they complicate it as listed above with all the issues and problems they create."

     

    Is that the general gist of it?

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