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SIUYA

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by SIUYA


  1. trading by yourself or for others can be very very self destructive......

    (I can understand why Brownsfan did not participate in such a race - I still might join (for fun) but I dont day trade often)

    The motivations for trades can change and subconsciously mess you up if you are trading for the wrong (or different to what you are used to reasons))

    How often have people imploded not because the plan is wrong, because the ideas a re wrong, but because of what they do in an attempt to try and please others.....

    (food for thought)


  2. I would have thought - Risk and retirement depends a lot on two things - how old the person involved is, and how much money they have and then also require.

    (I will always asset allocate, as buy and hold in only one instrument is actually risky.... dont forget about inflation. When I retire in 25 years $1m aint what is is now - (unless we get Japan worldwide which could be a (slim) possibility ))


  3. Funny how a trade error can find support :)

    (Given everyone assumes the massive spike down over night was an error)

     

    Agree China is saving Aust, I hope China has a bust of some sorts as I would like to buy some bargains around the place as part of a 20 year long term plan on the close of a crash day (20% plus). (mind you if it became like the Asian crisis of 1997 - down 20% one day, and bouncing the next I would not complain about that either!) spoke to a few bearish traders from some of the big houses last night..... they are loving it.....but now they are sitting on shorts they are itching to buy them back and lock in profits even though they are mega bearish. Let the volatility continue!


  4. While I agree with what you say Browns Fan, I also think that the points made sound far more realistic and closer to the reality of what happens..... ie; its all hard work, constant tweaking, and involves a lot of research.

     

    Point is this is a trading forum to discuss ideas, share experiences.

     

    It will also never be the end of technical analysis - thats like saying its the end of maps.... I prefer to think that these guys have a different way of visualizing the same price information, they just do it in numbers and statistics.

    As the only real truism in trading that I would like to see someone debunk is the truth that you only make money by being long the things that go up, and short those that go down. It does not matter how you do it.

     

    In terms of buying big house etc; ..... well Warren Buffet still lives in the same house in the middle of no where (no offense to those there), plus this guy has supposedly only been trading since 2007. He also may be wishing to build up the trading equity. Either way I dont think its a great measure to judge.


  5. what markets (rather than just wall street) has taught me.

    - you can be wrong more often than you are right and still make money.

    - its a combination of work and luck..... one by them selves will not help over the long run.

    - there is more than one way to skin a cat

    - if you put 1000 people in a room and give them a set of rules of how to be a sucess in the markets, some will make it, most will fail, some will break the rules and still make it and ruin it for the rest of us.

    - you will meet the best and worst people on a trading floor.

    - brokers have the right idea, take a clip without the risk. (but where is the fun in that)


  6. (i wrote this in response to the original thread so added it here as well)

     

    nice find - the few things I found most interesting out of all the discussions was;

    - nothing works all the time, there is constant tweaking and research and refinement.

    - its traded as a portfolio of systems, with lots of small positions each time

    - There is still a lot of work involved on a daily basis, there is no set and forget.

    - while they dont look at charts - all price action/movement/charts are derived from the price....so its all the same source - it seems its all a matter of how you wish to visualise it. Either is a chart form - which can cause us to see things that are not really there, or based on actual evidence of things that work as shown via backtesting.

    ie; you actually have to be able to visualise the edge yourself and program it, rather than just looking at a chart and saying thats a pattern. (if that makes any sense)

    re; emotion/discipline - ideally the testing and the automation should fix all those issues, so long as you thoroughly test, believe and understand the system. AND then be prepared to modify it or drop it, or stick to it when it loses..... all much the same, except like any tool the computers allow some tasks to be made easier.

    I personally dont agree with the martingdale strategies, I understand them, but even in his own words, says that the losses are brutal..... I wonder how much impact his hedging, options and spread of strategies limits these losses, while for most people it would ultimately lead to their ruin.

    Good luck to them. Its great to see alternative views.


  7. nice find - the few things I found most interesting out of all the discussions was;

    - nothing works all the time, there is constant tweaking and research and refinement.

    - its traded as a portfolio of systems, with lots of small positions each time

    - There is still a lot of work involved on a daily basis, there is no set and forget.

    - while they dont look at charts - all price action/movement/charts are derived from the price....so its all the same source - it seems its all a matter of how you wish to visualise it. Either is a chart form - which can cause us to see things that are not really there, or based on actual evidence of things that work as shown via backtesting.

    ie; you actually have to be able to visualise the edge yourself and program it, rather than just looking at a chart and saying thats a pattern. (if that makes any sense)

    re; emotion/discipline - ideally the testing and the automation should fix all those issues, so long as you thoroughly test, believe and understand the system. AND then be prepared to modify it or drop it, or stick to it when it loses..... all much the same, except like any tool the computers allow some tasks to be made easier.

    I personally dont agree with the martingdale strategies, I understand them, but even in his own words, says that the losses are brutal..... I wonder how much impact his hedging, options and spread of strategies limits these losses, while for most people it would ultimately lead to their ruin.

    Good luck to them. Its great to see alternative views.


  8. Hi - for those who get headaches from staring at the screen - and for all people who stare at screens all day. An optometrist friend of mine gave some great advice a few years ago, that has helped me and others from eye strain.... and saved some friends from such headaches.

    Your eyes are a muscle - get into the habit of exercising them. Every 20minutes or so, look up from the screen and refocus them at something in the distance. look out the window, get up from the desk and refocus. Take your eyes for a quick walk and stretch. Make it part of the trading day.

     

    Otherwise, good luck with the race, I dont intra day trade enough/much, but might join in a few weeks when I get back from holidays for a bit of fun. I just thought I would post with the eye advice.

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