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SIUYA
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Posts posted by SIUYA
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Trading is not for everyone.
If you find out that it is not for you, that is great. It is no reflection on you or your life. It is not personal, you did not fail. It is OK to just stop. You may not be wired for this. So, find something else you are good at and/or pursue other avenues of investment.
Perfectly said.
Trading has aspects a bit like being a celebrity - sportstar/movie start/airhead. There is generally a lot of hard work before the success, more work behind the scenes and then a lot of continual work to keep it up..... and yet it has an aura of "wow it must be great" about it.
Yes - it can be the best job in the world, however its not for everyone, there are sometimes other more enjoyable things to do.
I know plenty of people who have traded successfully for many years who then proceed to do other things afterward and never look back.
Also not all styles are for everyone either..... there can be a lot of time spent on this pursuit alone.
In terms of time spent. well most professional qualifications seem to take about a minimum of three years of constant partying - i mean studying - and cost an arm and a leg, and there is no guarantee of success there either. I often hear there are more qualified lawyers doing other things other than those actually practicing the law, why should trading be any different.
(Collect your free trading certificate/diploma at the door)
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works fine for me today.... i upgraded the latest version for the charts the other day.
Seems to work fine for me.
Once I had a password issue, emailed OEC and they reset it. Not sure what happened but it was easily fixed.
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..it takes all kind to make this world, and we are nothing more than a statistic in a normalized demographic study.
quote of the week/month/year
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indicators indicate what may or may not occur.
you could follow a car with the right turn indicator on (or left turn for those in other parts of the world) for miles, when the driver never has any intention to turn.
in terms of what does or does not work.... there is always that old clanger of putting 100 lawyers/doctors/statisticians in a room and announcing that 50 % in the room are below the average for the room and seeing the response of disbelief that anyone is in that bottom half. Just because it is not 100% right all the time does not make it worthless.
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nate -"We are all dealing with numbers and statistics..no one trading is using a data feed that contains something other than numbers."
exactly - its all the same.
The rest is either one persons way of dealing with it in their own mind. By either making things more statistically based, or visually based. what ever works for them.
or pure marketing as in your CTA example. If you read most black box proprietary trading algorithms etc; they are all still dealing with the same data - no matter what the marketing says.
there is an often unquoted section in market wizards about a guy who does not use science, rather gut feel and mystical zen to trade....he remains anonymous as he understands its not what people want to hear and it would deter a lot of people.
There is always fantasy v reality. Quite often a lot of fantasy can make money, but may ultimately blowup, or it makes its money in fees etc. Ironically sometimes the people living in the biggest fantasy make the most money....good for them.
Additionally, unless you are trying to replicate what someone else is doing then take what you want from them and their methods and ideas and realise why you dont want the rest.
If you think half of what someone is saying is BS but it works for them so what.
Reminds me of the quant who told his boss that if he had access to a $100mil portfolio he could return them at least $2mil a year...... for a while they thought he was a guru.
If you cant pull something positive out of any education then you have bigger issues.
(not directed at anyone, just a general rant)
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A few other ideas
I only trialled it but never took it up, as I did not like the feel of it.
RT -investor from memory had something like this where you can build things yourself.
also
Multi charts has a similar radar screen.
Its an issue I have also had over the years, as ideally I would have loved to have built an indicator, or used a standard one and be able to easily (note this word) export all this info directly into excel, as this is such a good system to use to sort, rank, cut and paste etc.
Have not look at this lately so maybe systems have improved.
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Mulligans - there is an interesting idea.
Which would you rather a mulligan on - a trade that lost on, that you could not take again, OR a winning trade that you did not take?
The answer might tell you a lot about what you are doing right or wrong in your trading.
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Pjs, no way.
Nude trading is the way to go. It really exposes you to the naked truth!
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Past experience - when constantly ignoring the gut but wanting to follow it, usually results in you finally following it at the worst possible time.
Review why - does it fit your system etc;
Walk away for a while, or really focus on where you are looking to enter.
Had to say unless you really know your system. This may be the time to review it.
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could not help it, what a great quote.
"Guide Highlights Accounting for trading gains and losses is complex and very difficult for most traders"
Especially the larger banks!
Can not comment on the specifics of the US system, however most tax authorities generally seem to adopt the view that what ever system you adopt you stick with it over time, you can prove via invoices/receipts etc the actual numbers and they make sense, and ultimately you have to be comfortable with it, unless you wish to fight them.
Also as this is usually only a once a year issue, i highly recommend recording as detailed notes why you choose to do something. This is extremely handy when reviewing for the next year, and also for explaining if you are audited.
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fyi - Just downloaded an update for the charts on OEC
Under the chart options/properties button - upper right hand side of chart
there are a couple of extra options to visually track past trades....
could be handy for some when recording past trades/ideas/errors for a journal.
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topical issue for me at present as I am contemplating a life change away from trading as opposed to many who move toward it, so this might be a bit of a personal rant, and opposite for many others.
Most successful traders I know have a nice lifestyle but they dont necessarily trade for the lifestyle it affords, they trade for the work challenge it brings (the work style if you like).
I for one hate the social isolation. Even though I maintain a healthy social network separately its the sitting alone while working that does my head in, mainly as its not a job that requires continuous work/concentration. Rather it requires continuous monitoring and focus on the plan. I also dont wish to sit in a trading room with others I dont know....this does not work for me.
While I am doing more day trading at the moment, I find that this has its advantages (you can just switch off, go away, have flexibility) and disadvantages (you have to focus and monitor closely throughout the day, its addictive, requires constant discipline).... I find this type of trading when its done full time is more socially isolating than longer term or swing trading.
Am I happy with the profession? Both yes and no. After 19 years in the finance industry, 17 years constantly trading (always very conservatively), sometimes you just want to do something different all together that gets you out of bed in the morning. Even when winning there is often no excitement there. Which can be good and bad.
However, I love the markets, I love the constant motion of the markets, the changes etc;
I have had a few periods of taking 6 months off, and constantly travel, but I always come back to it.
I have been seriously thinking about getting into something completely different outside of finance, but I know its not for me. I like work no matter what it is, so long hours etc dont worry me, I will work until I drop. But I also know that I like to deal with people, and for me its sometimes more I enjoy the problem solving rather than anything else....(potentially an issue when it comes to trading as you wish to want to be right rather than anything else)
i know a few things that work for me....
1) good trading habits are like riding a bike, once learnt are not forgotten - its the application that is important. So you can always go back to it.
2) I dont want to sit in front of a computer screen trading by myself for the rest of my life, as there are other things to do....mid life crisis?
3) there is more in life than money (easy to say as I have some) but more importantly there are other ways to make money rather than trading.
4) sometimes, you need to sit back and see the forest and not just the trees.
5) if I cant be bothered getting out of bed in the morning, then its time to change....boredom rather than burnout is an issue.
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talk about Drunk trading, I have been away for a while and looked at Crude today and it suddenly seems to be a lot less liquid than normal.
In terms of it regularly moved up or down ten cents from the last sale without having and trades. eg; last sale was 76.36, and it was offered 76.26
This seemed to happen a lot today.
It can certainly play havoc with automatic stops etc;
maybe crude is having a few blackout trades and its not remembering to trade at certain levels.
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Just to add to the mix from post number 31 all in the spirit of helping
(CAPITALS ARE NOT FOR YELLING, JUST FOR A CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE QUESTION AND THE ANSWER)"You seem to be trying to make this form of trading far more complicated and mystical than it is" - YES YOU ARE
"And if the average dom doesnot contain enought information, which I suspect it does not. How would one set up such a dom. " - YOU WISH TO TRADE WITH LESS INFORMATION - JUST THE DOM- AND THEN ADD MORE INFORMATION? SEE ANSWER ABOVE
"My question to you becomes how do one plot those areas on a dom".- ITS CALLED A CHART, or SEE ANSWER BELOW
"The MK will test all price points and after a certian point will come back [ in time] and test them again. How the heck can you do that off just the dom price? " - MEMORY - REMEMBER THE OLD DAYS WERE WE USED TO HAVE TO REMEMBER PHONE NUMBERS AND ADDRESSES, WHILE NOW MOBILE PHONES ETC HAVE MADE MOST OF US LAZY IN THIS RESPECT
Is dom trading the new floor trading? Where you just scalp your way along? - NO, JUST A DIFFERENT TOOL THAT SUITS DIFFERENT PEOPLE
I also used to work on the floor and trade using a pencil and a piece of paper. We also used to trade options with option price sheets, prior to computers. You needed to be able to do the simple things like add up and subtract very quickly. It took time and practice. Personally I am a visual person and I love the chart, however it will sometimes make you lazy, it will sometimes make you see things that did not really happen, each has its advantgaes and disadvantages. I hope this helps
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I have not used Matlab, but have heard great things about it.
But the crux of a search for the best backtesting system around that is readily AVAILABLE and AFFORDABLE to a retail person surely needs to focus on how close to reality you can get in the actual backtesting, how much the programmer is aware of the fudging that is required, and then most importantly how good at data handling the system and the programmer is.
Backtesting with fudged data from the start makes things difficult.
The other thing that needs to be taken into consideration of course is time frame and frequency.
A retail person competing on a tick by tick basis may find it hard.On a daily basis assuming you are not trying to get set exactly on opens and closes may be easier.
Most backtesting systems dont take into consideration a portfolio approach - probably not relevant for a retail day trader, so we can ignore this - which makes things easier.
And then ultimately the best backtesting system in the world cannot work unless it can be quickly translated into the real world markets via a system. This is where speed may be important. (I mean does it matter if a test takes 5 mins or 30 secs to run - its a test and you want accuracy not speed)
Data management on ongoing system management can also take up a lot of time and costs depending on the system once it running.
Quite frankly I think a lot of time, effort and energy are spent on backtesting systems without the realisation that they are ultimately a fudge. (and as Nate mentioned elsewhere many people are too lazy to really work on the issues involved and want just a system to do the work)
The time might be better be spent on a system that you can automate and trade in the real world and is easy to tweak (assuming the theory, edge and some fudged backtesting has been done to show it may work)
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Nat-"Its simply lazy though to say that a computer can not do this...to me its like saying the context of something is not quantifiable because its based on "magic"."
I agree with you however impossible to do and lots of hard work are different matters. Not everyone has the computing skills, time, and even once you are finished, then the ability to maintain and stick to the computerized system once its running. This does not necessarily make someone lazy. (Yet while many retail traders are mesmerized by quick profits, there are also many lazy insto traders as well - I have worked with some - also there are very few real prop traders in the insto world....many rely on flow, products, inbuilt corporate edges - hedge funds can be different again - the retail punter sitting with very little information is a different kettle of fish)
To date I have not heard of anyone be able to program context - and some of these people are hard working programmers and CTA fund managers running a lot of money - though I am sure people have variations of it in the way of filters. Most of the time the reply is that you just have to wear the volatility of the system as thats the way its designed etc; etc;
(when you ask them off the record they will all tell you context is tough to define and hence program)
There are clearly lots of programmers on these forums yet I have had very little feedback on the forum of a thread I started asking about context and systems. Maybe this is just the wrong forum for it.
And maybe, just maybe you have hit the nail on the head - context is a s...t load of variables and constant tinkering is part of it.
There is an interesting example between two well CTA long term trend followers that I have been following of the years....one group tinkers, continually optimises and adjusts the system, the other just sticks with their original system over the long run through thick and thin.....who is right and who is wrong is an ongoing debate -their return profiles from a volatility point of view are different, but their net long term returns are similar. (And this does not include any survivorship bias for funds that dont survive)
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found it
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When it comes to backtesting - there is backtesting and there is backtesting
It seems to me that a lot of people try and back test using a computer and then try and manually trade
If you can accurately and properly backtest an automated system, and you know the data is accurate (this is tough enough), the system very accurately reflects reality (slipppage etc) and you can go back far enough with this data, then ideally just have an automated system going..... not impossible
Otherwise
the backtesting really is a walk forward testing with market replay data whereby you are trying to train your mind, and work out what does work (without the binary inputs and details of a computerised system) via setups, context, triggers, trade management etc being slightly different each time.
Both to me are very different and each have their own issues.
(probably a slight deviation from the original thread, and a bit of a rant - so apologies - its been a long week)
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I'd really appreciate the input from someone on what context they think is accurately readable and useful in their trading to further this discussion.
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One - a lot of setups already have context in built. eg; looking only to take longs after X, Y and Z have occurred. However, why does this look different to the last time.
Two - context reading like anything comes with experience and can be as simple as intuition telling you not to take a trade.
Three - context can be as simple as a few rules to say, market has been up a lot the last few days, sentiment is bearish, I will just look to take any sell setups.
Four - The issue of context - at least mainly for me - is about which trades to avoid and what makes them higher possibility setups...eg; only buying in an uptrend. But then how to define a trend? and when in an uptrend not to take a long
Five - a lot depends on further separating entries and exits into the divisions of context, setup, trigger, trade management. Not every 10 range bar up tick is the same as the next.
Six - knowing when major market moving figures are coming out, and if they are being focused on by the markets
Seven - it depends on the time frame being traded.
Eight - context that is accurately readable - its not. Have you seen the example of a paragraph of writing whereby every word has the letters between the first and last letters of each word scrambled up within the word itself. (hope that make sense) Each word itself makes no sense, however when you read the paragraph from the top it makes sense.....thats context (I could not find the example on the net). the brain is an amazing thing.
A lot of these things boil down to can you tell a computer a set of rules to define context - if you can then just automate it all. If you cant....then you probably have context. Computers are binary, we are not. A good analogy I read just the other day was try and teach a computer how to ride a bicycle.....very tough, and yet most 4 year olds can do it.
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The race is fun, its highly likely (but not impossible) to achieve the end goal, and will attract people with more bark than bite, will attract all the naysayers.....blah blah
I think it has been mentioned before, and the racers that have dropped out have pretty much given the reason why they are dropping out....
Focus.
I could not enter a race such as this as it sidetracks my focus and would cause me to deviate from my plans and second guess them. A few of the drop outs seemed to imply this happened to them.
While its great and I applaud the idea and the participants - possibly a race to a SIM based $1 million from $3000 might mean that it can still be shown its possible, without the worry about the focus deviating from the actual focus to make money on whatever amount you are actually trading. It could be by invite only to stop every tom dick and harry (and people can still choose to use real money if they like)
Call me old fashioned but such a small difference might make it more possible. Off course the money is not real, but the lessons will be. There are not many people who can make money trading as it is, and even fewer who can turn 3000 into 1m
(ps this is not sarcastic, critical of anyone, or anything else....just a suggestion)
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what you did was buy the break out. You did not buy support.
buying support=>: the instrument is breaking to the upside, you determine the trend is up.
Watch for retracements of the rally to support eg; the last swing high and place a buy order here.
You will most likely not pick the exact bottom, it might fall a little first, but if the trend holds the rally will continue. Also not everything retraces and you will moss some orders getting set and hence some large moves....such is life.
The rest of the equation is then for how long you will run it.
Buying breaks and buying support can be very different.
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definition of a successful trader.
One who is consistently net profitable over a long and sustainable period of time.
This usually deletes many traders who -
make a fortune and then blow up.....thats gambling (and some get away with it)
dont make enough money to pay the bills with any regularity - usually as they are undercaptialised
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Thanks BrownsFan.......
1) very handy I did not realise that when you click right on the trendline/horizontal line and then go into alerts, it would go off that, I was busy looking in properties and a few other places.
2) In the DOM when you left click on the price column it can create an alert. I ideally wanted to set it up as a default (much like many of the other tasks in OEC) and hence meaning you could just left click on the price column to set an alert with one click. Not a major issue, just something that might be quick and easy.
3) Thanks for the bar chart, colouring. This will not be enough as I still need to watch it, and if I have the indicator already showing it does not give much more info - handy none the less.
I was looking more at on the chart ALERTS > CREATE ALERTS > ADVANCED tab.
Thinking I was wondering if there was some way to set the alerts off a chart in here.
If you use the example of a higher high, lower low indicator (a donchian channel) it would be great to be able to alert when it breaks up or down initially, and then have the alert reset until the next time after it goes sideways for a few bars - (otherwise it will continue to fire)
I will keep looking as OEC has many hidden settings.
thanks.
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A couple of suggestions.....
1) Be able to apply alerts on trend lines, or horizontal lines, or any line that is drawn eg; a box, elipse
2) Be able to set the DOM (middle price column) alert so that it defaults. Hence you can just right click on the price column.
3) Be able to set up the alerts so that if an indicator ticks up or down, or to a certain level it alerts.... an make this easy to turn on and off.
Eg; say you are using the Donchian (higher and low levels) you may wish to see when the next high tick goes off, without having to constantly be alerted by the low tick going off if in a downtrend.
If you can already do this then please show me the way..... I seem to find knew stuff on there every day. Liking the system.....just not my trading.
thanks.
What is the Single Largest Roadblock Standing in the Way to Your Trading Success?
in General Trading
Posted
Basically - its called letting the winners run.
or
having a trade setup that ensures the take profit levels are are greater than the stop loss levels, if you can get that AND get a good win loss ratio then magic.