ehorn

Hello aquarian1, You have made a very good inquiry. It is a foundational question to a beginning of understanding how markets operate. I believe Tams has provided you the leading market variable for the answer to your question. I will expand on the application of volume information and its use that I have found to be true and has greatly contributed to my understanding of how markets operate. IMO, the most reliable indicator for determining these beginnings and endings (trends) is price and volume. But moreso volume. Used together these present a formidable combination that allow the trader to see how the market operates and migrates from trend to trend. All trends have the same beginning and ending. The fundamental principle of determining whether price is moving in a dominant direction or non-dominant (retrace) is volume and the sequences that volume undergo to produce price movement and a trend. Volume is not a static variable just as price is not static. The sequences of volume are sometimes explained with a simple notation: (B2B 2R 2B) - Where the Dominant Trend is up (R2R 2B 2R) - Where the Dominant Trend is down or X2X 2Y 2X - when viewed on a time scale it would appear as diagonal volume rays tracking the movement of volume like this: \ / \ / where /=X and \=Y; so applying this to our Dominant Trend we can see that for an up trend we will see the following behavior: A new trend is established with decreasing black volume (\B) as it approaches the existing resistance point (Trendline). Price then breaks out of this resistance on increasing volume (/B; now B2B in the sequence). Once this occurs and is completed, price will begin its retrace which is signified by (\R; now 2R in the sequence) and then return to dominance (/B; now 2B in the sequence) - B2B 2R 2B. All Markets are fractal in nature and this sequence (X2X 2y 2X) occurs on all fractals. All fractals undergo these sequences as the market forms trends within trends within trends. When all of these sequences have completed on all fractals the existing trend is extinguished and a new trend forms. Many people choose to ignore this truism. Truth can be intolerable at times. Best wishes.

Here is another quote I am fond of: "Even if it were possible to prevent the gullible from being led down the garden path, one would first have to determine what is or is not a garden path, then determine who is or is not qualified to prevent the gullible from walking it" Though I am unable to validate the wisdom of its author.

+1 for this - Volume (more accurately the sequences of volume leading price) is a leading indicator of price and trends (whether price is moving in a non-dominant direction (retrace) or dominant. IMHO, using price alone to determine a trend (dominance) is akin to gambling. As a wise man once said... "Price Action is a vendor induced fad and the dog will not hunt ultimately simply because it is not systematic. Meaning, there is no complete structure, no complete process and it is not possible the get results from the incomplete structure and process." Best wishes

How bout something like: int b=0; foreach (int i in array1) { (if i==0 | i%3==0) { array2[b] = i; b+=1; } }

The most definitive source of correct and accurate information is the market itself. Everyday it provides us feedback. It shows a trader everything he/she needs and it shows us where our strengths and/or weaknesses lie. It tells us where we are solid and where there is room for refinement. Spydertrader cannot make the journey for anyone of us but only act as a guide. In his great efforts, he has provided us all a record of the things required to learn to listen to the market and to learn from the market. I think many of us have come to a place where we feel the need to be graded on our homework. The market gives out grades everyday and it gives out homework as well. Just my 2c

Some trading notes for the day...

A premarket Differentiation Drill for those interested (see attached). EDIT: The left is from: 7/14/2009 7:15am - 8:20am The right is from: 7/15/2009 7:55am - 8:35am All times Eastern

Much more are those who believe trading is probabilistic.

Differentiation Drill for today...

A timely lesson on Laterals Spyder

As Spydertrader describes - the process consists of a 4 part routine (MADA). He is kindly providing the framework necessary to accurately perform the first part (M)onitor. As a practitioner of these methods performs the routine, over time, the mind becomes differentiated to be able to "see" what cannot be seen at first. Best wishes

Please review Spydertraders original post highlighting Gaussians and there formations below.. Here is another view of the volume gaussians sequences:

Hear! Hear! It speaks and we strive to listen.

The obvious answer to this rhetoric is no... I feel you adequately represent the masses (thinking and beliefs). There are many ways to make money trading markets. Spydertrader purports one way and I concur with the principles he ascribes. My goal is to follow the market and listen to it. The principles of price and volume and the sequences provide (me) the information required. There is nothing glamorous about the day or the trade. In fact it was just mundane. It was a slow day (it is summer) and the market did not provide any signals other than hold the entire day (for the fractal I trade). This is not genius stuff or an attempt to appear as such. The intent of the attachment was to demonstrate (more or less) a repeatable process of the application of the principles. So you are acquainted with and have observed the intelligent and respectful communication effort undertaken to transfer knowledge of the principles of price and volume. I take no offense at your beliefs. I simply was unaware of this forum until yesterday and thought I would join up and say hello to some of my colleagues. I apologize for interrupting. Open and honest dialogue is never a bad thing regardless of ones views and/or opinions. Happy Independence Day Peace.

Might make a catchy title for a new thread...