4EverMaAT

No one said there would NOT be risks, but assigning preferences to how you manage the risk does not change the risk. Neither do the emotions. I would stop defending these fears and face them. You can't overcome fears conceptually (you can't solve the problem at the level of the problem). You take action, look honestly at the results, make adjustments if necessary, and do your best. Either that or take the chips off the table; then you are guaranteed to not lose anything.

The turtles experiment as I understand it, was to see if traders could be made (vs born with the skill) to trade successfully. I read a pdf about it years ago. One of the original traders gave it away after one of the other original turtles (one of the unsuccessful ones that did NOT follow the system) broke the original pact and started selling some bastardized version of the original Turtle trading system. He felt that if people were going to trade, they should trade the correct one. It goes to show that you could practically give away a system but it is up to the person to implement it correctly. Trade management and money management are virtually synonymous when it comes to systems trading. Position sizing is important when wanting to maximize profitability, not mystical entry points.

Any trading sequence requires resillience in the face of sequential losses. But that is resilience requirement is minimized significantly when using systems; particlularly automated systems. When using one-off approaches, then yes, much resilience is needed. Deeper pockets would depend on what instrument you are trading. Forex pairs with micro and especially nano lot minimum increments make scaling for the small trader much easier, even with 50:1 leverage.

Blue, You are 100% correct in that the oft repeated advice of "only risk x amount per trade" was not intended to micromanage individual trades, but was usually used for a specific strategy which normally traded multiple trading positions. There was an article (cant find it) on a futures blog a while back dealing with how even if you risk 1% per trade, a series of losers can easily set you back 15-30%. So with $10,000 to start, you are down to 8500-7000. The point is that whether you trickle down your losses, or lose Most [usually newer or risk-adverse] traders like this type of advice becase it gives them a false sense of security. They don't like the idea of losing a huge chunk of their funds at once, so the idea of slow steady gains can be matched with slow steady losses sounds beautiful. However this thinking totally ignores the core strategy/overall strategy of profit. It's what i call "monetary escapism", because you don't have to put any real your money where you mouth is. See the next reply below. Exactly. All those people who put all those indicators on their charts to the point that it looks like an airplane cockpit dashboard, with all those "right" parameters, and spend hours/days studying them to identify highly profitable entries and exits, only to bet 0.5%-2% of your account? Does that make sense? If you were so sure you had a winning chance of winning the lottery (80-100%), wouldn't you purchase as many tickets as possible? after all that extensive research, i would certainly hope so. While trading does necessarily require "All-In, everytime" strategy to be profitable, why wouldn't you use 10-40% or more of your account on a basket of trades to reach your profit goals? Poker is similar, except the opponent can fold when you go all in. Trading is much more objective, and the market will almost always "call".

I forgot to finish that thought. There are those who don't know they are not free. Not much you can do to help someone, until the discomfort of not knowing what's true gets to a point where they must want to help themselves. That's why playing the victim role is so ineffective in getting any tangable results. You must want to help yourself first, then someone else can extend their hand and you are open to receive assistance. You cannot give to someone else what you don't have for yourself. That is why your relationships with other people, the markets, etc can't work. You're not being honest with yourself and what you really want. And I mean completely honest, not the selective honesty that so many of us already practice daily.

It's extremely difficult for any charting package to be all things to all people. MT5 addresses the "+ Define custom bar periodicities" , but I doubt they added the functionality to hide trading periods. You could create an indicator to highlight/hide the bars that you want to ignore, but it would still leave gaps on your chart. For these types of requests that metaquotes won't honor directly, you would need to either request API access or bridge the incoming tick data with a custom indicator and bring-your-own-charting package to meet your demands. But having a robust ability to program workarounds was a refreshing change for something that is free for the end user. It was ahead if its time and even now it is progressive. After managing a few programming projects myself, I respect the fact that it takes a lot to make a stable trading platform for the masses. There is no open source charting packages in this business (that I know of). Who would pour thousands of free hours into creating a package like sierra chart, metatrader, and then offer tech support it also? A dealbreaker is a dealbreaker, but I think that a serious trader would do their best to workaround cosmetic limitations.

If you trade in terms of net positions, it really doesn't matter mathematically whether it is LIFO, FIFO, or [whatever]IFO Except hedging. If you hedge a position of the same currency pair, you essentially remove all the risk from the broker, and pay two commissions, two spreads, and possibly two swaps with no additional monetary benefit to the trader. When you offset an existing position, you are completely out of the market. I think the whole point of FIFO was to guarantee that the person could not hedge the same pair in the same account. But the NFA did several other things that made forex trading from a USA broker undesirable.

There are those who don't know they are not free. Not much you can do to help someone, until the discomfort of not knowing what's true gets to a point where you. We often go to other humans for help, but most everyone is in the same relative position: self-rejection. The central problem with trying to describe the truth is that the truth just "is". No words can describe it; it must ultimately be experienced. But we'll twist our brains around point of view, preferences, and other egoic stall tactics that boldly and subtly seduce us into agreement. After all, the truth is not exciting (for some people). It's exciting for me, especially when you see the possibilities of it. The funny thing about the law of attraction is in fact that we pick our leaders and we get what we want. I always recommend "the 4 agreements" and eventually the trilogy written by Don Miguel Ruiz as one of the best systems to remove what is not true in our lives, and especially in our trading. The more we remove what is not true, the closer to "the truth" we become. Easy to follow through, and you can see the results for yourself. If you need some type of intermediary or 3rd party to interpret what you see, that's a sure sign of delusion. That doesn't mean you cannot solicit 3rd party advice, which can assist you in finding your own way.. But self-mastery is about making choices and being responsible for those choices, not trying to blame others the second your choices don't work out as planned. Being skeptical, but learning to listen. I suppose if it works, then go for it. You acknoledge that it exists (for you) so that is the first step. You actually took it a step further by figuring out how to deal with it to your benefit.

We tend to fear what we do not understand when we make a habit of trying to explain why things are the way they are. When we cannot get a direct answer from the source, we make assumptions to feel safe. "Just the answer makes us feel safe". Making assumptions has a snowball effect because once you get rolling with one strong enough, it just perpetuates along with additional assumptions to support it until something catestrophic happens that forces you to challenge some or all of the agreements. This may be a sigificant loss or wipeout of account equity. So for trading, the uncertainty is mainly the fear that you will lose money that you may not lose if you don't trade. You feel safe in "staying where you are". The irony is that you also LOSE by not trading at all. Huh? Staying on the sidelines forever you never get the opportunity to gain any reward. But we hardly ever think of trading in this way. We know that accidents happen, but does that stop us from driving or taking a flight? We know at least in that instance that we must take concrete steps to get to our next destination. But we trust that the systems that are being used (car, plane) are sturdy enough to work for our intended purpose. Has the client tested his own "system" to ensure its sturdiness? This would be best acheived with automation, but that's another thread. The reality is that there will always be uncertainty. All you can do is your best. The awareness that he has the problem is the first step.

Don't worry about the bogey man stop hunters. I'm amazed at how many superstitions are created around a business that is very straightforward. What some people also miss is that the eurodollar futures has de-facto 1:1200-2000 leverage on its contracts. After writing this I realized that TR was referring to EURUSD equivilant futures contract. But just to make the point that futures has high leverage too.

Honestly, as long as the broker gets you in and out of your trades, you will not notice a significant difference between either models, other than spreads which are already fairly competitive these days. And a reputable broker will fill you as the market allows. Don't get "spooked" solely on the strict terms ECN and Market Maker

For the OP, ForexTester is what you are looking for. It's not perfect, but the best thing going right now for walk-forward market simulation. You'll need their VIP service to download tick data, which is appx 2 years with several brokers. (the guy collects the ticks himself with is own capuring tool). For the tick data, it takes up about 1.2 GB per pair on IBFX data for the past 2 years. The program allows you to play data tick-by-tick if you wanted to, and you can do this over the weekend or whenever you want. If you have an automated strategy or custom indicators, you may also program them and import them into the program.

Interesting point of view. Science is just another belief system anyway, but the fundamentals of buying and selling goods hasn't changed. The buyer and seller agree on a price, and product changes hands. Perhaps a small "rake" or commission for the intermediaries You'd be surprised how powerful metatrader is. One of the advantages of metatrader 4 is that it has a built-in programming language. It uses a small memory footprint and it encouraged custom indicators/automation from the beginning. The trader that aligns themself with a reputable broker could then focus their efforts on their strategy. This created a huge following that became forex-tsd, forexfactory, etc. as users could showcase their own creativity. You can always request API from a broker that offers it and pay a programmer to bridge it to your favorite trading package. Most popular brokers will have already set something up, like MBTrading >> API >> Multicharts. But you could also use their own proprietary platform, or Metatrader 4. In futures, just about every broker went the proprietary route, but API access was usually standard (just had to ask for it) because everyone gets the same feed and trades the same prices. So "bring your own charting package" was an unwritten de-facto rule for many of the discount brokerages. An individual firm having their own charting package was a pretty big selling point, especially if it had robust programming capability built in. Tradestation actually could have standardized the industry with their software about 10-12 years ago if they licensed it out wholesale to brokerages, but they chose to keep it in house, forcing users to maintain a tradestation account to get access to it. Multicharts came late, but I think they did well to make Tradestation-like features available to the masses without the Tradestation bureaucracy. Ninja trader, strategyrunner, etc and others are similar also, but one has to pay for these IN ADDITION to normal trading costs. Another advantage of MT4 is that it is a de-facto standard among retail forex brokers. This is great for a trader that has their own Expert Advisor (EA)/indicator; they just copy and paste their files to a new broker's mt4 installation and they are set to go. A broker can "easily" create their own custom indicators if they want to "brand" their version of mt4 beyond a simple logo swap. IBFX has done just this. They have a lot of custom indicators that are availble ONLY through their platform. So it is easy to switch brokers, and easier to compare strategies among a common community. To keep up with 4-5 different platforms for a futures broker; it is a nightmare to port your indicators unless you are an expert programmer. For a professional trader it's not the end of the world, but it does take considerable time to test several platforms, especially if you want custom programming. Good luck if you decide to make a platform "switch". If a forex broker comes out with its own proprietary platform ONLY (not offering mt4 along side), it is much more difficult for that broker to break ground, unless that platform blows the competition away. A proprietary platform with programming capability is an expensive startup cost, and time consuming to bring to market. Plus you must convince your customer to only use your brokerage (or increase business at your brokerage)? That standard is also making it difficult to switch to MT5, as the languages are not compatible. Mt4 works a little too well, and even though the changes in mt5 are significant, it will probably take 2-3 years for the masses to catch on. mt4 will be arould for many years.

I think I know what Hull was trying to say (in terms of following the masses vs not following the masses), but let me clarify: human beings are intuitive by nature, but due to their domestication (usually as a child or later in life) from other humans with a highly contagious dis-ease of fear, they learn how to become counter-intuitive. And yes, we must reverse or "unlearn" the counter-intuitive behavior, so that we can then regain our personal power and use it in a more effective way. This is partially true. If the system is "correct" (logical and error free) and produces the desired results, then it is easy to follow a system. Among getting consistent results, a systems approach promotes accountability. So when things are out of place, it's much more detectable and repairable

The original article of the OP does not allow logged in users to view without a premium membership. Not sure if the video is available elsewhere. It is good that you are a skeptic. You never fully know if what someone says comes from the heart or is another story. But if you think that a product has merit, then sign up. The worst that can happen is that the product does not meet your expectations. Then you just lost a month. You have to take some risks in this business; that is unavoidable.

+1 I can personally vouch for this software. Camtasia is excellent also, but BSR produces instant videos, of exactly what was in the recorded area and is very straight-forward. Much cheaper also. And you can custom name the files (default is preset name and date/time stamp) and split the videos by MB size. No need to create 1 large file if you are recording for several hours. And this also reduces the need to split the avi file later. Easier to remove parts you don't need if you use smaller file sizes. Now snag-it 11 (techsmith; makers of Camtasia) includes video recording, so not sure if you would want to give this a shot. Snag-it was/is the best screen shot application available IMO. Speaking of recording, if you have access to a VPS, you can record "in the cloud" on a remote desktop unattended. You can do this from regular desktop also, but usually automated trading is done in the cloud for redundancy. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoybUfW0VdY]This video shows how to set it up. It's a bit fast, but it explains how to use two users to keep RDC open in the cloud.[/ame]

That would be the best course of action, considering what you want to accomplish.

1) use a basket of trades when you enter. Use the spreadsheet to work out the opportunity costs from initial entry. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/11152-dollar-cost-averaging-spreadsheet-alternative-method.html#post132513 2) get in late in the mini trend. This maximizes your chance for a pullback. Lookout for a custom indicator soon that can be used to help isolate these movements very soon.

ok, good. I did my best to make sure they were not confusing.

Cool. It goes a long way to becoming more objective about entry and exit, regardless of triggers/predictions. Really places much more emphasis on the position sizing, which is mainly what we do have control over. We have no control over the market direction. Did you find the videos helpful in explaining how it works?

This is correct actually. Trying to micro-manage each individual trade is self-defeating because you are artifically attempting to limit your risk. You may not be able to predict exactly where market will go, but by placing a basket of trades, you are much more likely to profit or breakeven when market turns around. I have posted a cost averaging spreadsheet here. that does a good job of allowing you to see for yourself. Personally I'd much rather risk 5-20% of my account or more to facilitate doubling it or breaking even on a group of trades vs managing individual trades, which will not push your overall win position enough.

The spreadsheet was originally designed to assist with determining the best order placement and position sizing for an EA that I assisted developing. There has been debate on whether or not martingale or any form of cost averaging can assist traders in becoming more profitable. This is difficult to determine at the level of the mind, since there seems to be a lot of negative points of view towards terms like "martingale", "averaging down" etc. So to help objectively prove that dollar cost averaging strategies, I am releasing the workbook to public. Feedback and discussion of course is appreciated. I would love to hear how the spreadsheet or other similar tool assists traders in using some sort of position sizing. When used wisely can quickly increase equity, without the use of mystic indicators or some exotic recipe. Although it should be noted that, statistically speaking a betting strategy of any kind requires an edge. It does not have to be a large one. But it has to be an edge of some kind in order to consistently multiply profits. The file format is excel xls, which should be compatible for most people that have access to MS Office 2000 or greater.. There should be no problems importing into Open Office, but no guarantees. There are two spreadsheets in the workbook. The best thing to do is to watch the videos to get up to speed on how to use the excel spreadsheet. The second-best thing is to just play around with the spreadsheet, only change the cells specified in the videos. Any cell with a formula, do not touch. Save a separate copy of spreadsheet for each pair/scenario you work out and find useful. note: for nano lot accounts, divide the pip value (F2) and the Exchange rate (F5) by 10. There is a video on this. Although this spreadsheet will still do the job for many, there is another version of the spreadsheet that is very similar to the one presented, but uses a macro to auto-fill in the rows that you would have to manually type in. It makes testing different strategies much faster and less stressful (shades), and even generates a text file to copy values into Expert Advisor which is the next logical step with a tool like this. This newer version of the spreadsheet will only be made available to those that are subscribed for updates at AwarenessForex.com update 11/26/2011: new version of spreadsheet adjust the martingale calculator to force 2 digit rounding. metatrader 4/5 only accepts 0.01 as lowest trade lot size #. update 11/27/2011: added row for margin level for each scenario. Change B8 (Starting equity) and everything else will recalculate. Many forex brokers have 2 different margin levels: margin call and stop out level. Basically they will alert you / liquidate some or all of your positions when you reach these levels. AF Cost Averaging Worksheet.xls

The price action is real, but the interpretation of it is just another story. Do your best to stick only with the action itself and make a choice.

You wouldn't drive a car without understanding how it works. Why would you trade an EA without an understanding of how it works? One of the biggest lies you must dismantle is the belief that something mystical or exotic will make your trading successful. I have found that cost averaging works wonders for automated trading. Perhaps I will upload the spreadsheet in a separate thread. You can also follow progress on AwarenessForex.com

The expense would go into the time and effort necessary to refine the robot to survive different conditions. The underlying strategy can be simple, and does not need any calendar references, except to distinguish between market hours, liquid times to trade, etc. These are functional references, not necessarily based on personal preference. In regards to why wouldn't a valid system be sold on the market, why wouldn't it be? The idea of buying a product or service is that it will fit your needs. Look around your house or apartment. Isn't everything you purchased for yourself or spouse have a purpose or serve a functional need?