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Spydertrader
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Everything posted by Spydertrader
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Bingo!! Now certainly, we can know before this point in time, but only after developing the knowledge, skills and experience to do so. Once the market indicates it has provided a trader with a known entity you can then, and only then, begin the learning process - step by step - without jumping ahead. - Spydertrader
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I did not ask how a container is defined. I did not ask how to build a container. I did not ask how you could know to remain on the same fractal. I did not ask how you could know an FTT developed on a specific bar. I only asked how one can know that it would be impossible for the market to be continuing to build a down container. At some point in time it is impossible for a down container to be continuing to be built. Whether or not you know the exact bar where the down container stopped and an up container began has nothing to do with the question I asked. Think. I've been attempting to show you how to teach yourself these things beginning with very simple logic. Unfortunately, I have not been successful in this endeavor. Again we are not talking about Volume sequences, or order of events right now. I only want you to think critically for a moment and understand the question being asked. "When do you know with 100% certainty that the market has indicated building a down container is impossible?" Do not overcomplicate this question. Let's be clear on something. I did not ask, "How could you know the market already completed the down container?" I asked, "How you could know with 100% certainty the market completed its down container today?" In a two demensional environment, it is quite common for people to 'read into' things an unintended meaning. So let's try one more time with the question: "How can you (or anybody following along with this discussion) know with 100% certainty that the down container, which began on 10-13-2010 (at 14:15 Eastern Time), must have ended at some point in time today (10-15-2010)?" - Spydertrader
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Once again, If you'll simply wait until the market has completed the construction of its down container, then you'll absolutely know how the market moved through the order of events on all fractals. Now, how can you know with 100% certainty that the market would have completed its down container today (10-15-2010)? What event would tell you for certain such a thing had developed? At such a point in time, you'll have everything required to annotate a chart correctly in hindsight, which as a result, will provide you what you need to know whether (or not) you have remained on the same fractal each step of the way. - Spydertrader
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Think for a moment. If you have concerns over "some yahoo painting the tape" and causing Price to close on the ask vs the bid wouldn't you have the exact same concern for the VE creation in the first place? (e.g. not quite touching the LTL, on the LTL and through the LTL) - Spydertrader
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Yes. There definitiely must be. - Spydertrader
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You are not wrong. You are foucsed on two things in this context: 1. Volume 2. Where Price closes relative to a trend line. Your concerns with respect to where Price closes relative to the Bid / Ask have resulted from your failure to 'think through' the possibilities of Price Close relative to a trend line. Once you work through these possibilities, you'll see what concerns you isn't logical, nor rational. - Spydertrader
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So figure out at what point you can absolutely know for certain the market completed building a down container, and when that moment arrives create the annotations required of a completed channel. - Spydertrader
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You failed to follow directions ... Please note. I have not inidicated whether the down container has completed its trend, or if it has not. I'm simply pointing out the fact that you do not yet know the answer.
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Of course they are connected. Must certainly it does. And since you know when you are permitted to annotate a Right Trend line, you can then know exactly what the market must do next. Look at the chart snippet in an effort to locate the answer you seek. Gee, it's starting to sound like you have more answers than you believe you have. - Spydertrader
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For now, only discuss the similarities and differences between the Red and Pink Medium weight lines. Act as if the skinny lines do not exist. The first group of VE's did one thing, while the second group did another (based on what the market did after what is shown in the chart snippet. Later, use the YM to 'see' the differences in the skinny line areas. Remember your original issue: What takes place as a result of a VE. - Spydertrader
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You might wish to expand on this point somewhat. Note the chart snippet I posted and the blue arrows. - Spydertrader
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The market always provides the guidance you seek. One simply remains patient until the market has provided certainty for your specific level of knowledge, skills and experience. Once the market can no longer be constructing one thing, it must be constucting another thing. Later, once you've developed the necessary knowledge, skills and experience, you'll not need to wait as long to have reached 'certainty' with respect to what the market has constructed. - Spydertrader
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One begins the process of learning to annotate by understanding the ten cases presented at the beginning of this thread. These ten cases provide a foundation for accuracy and precision. The process 'works' when a trader has learned to 'see' the order of events develop on three fractals (one above, and one below, the trading fractal) People annotate in different ways based on how the initially learned to 'see' the market. When I first learned about the Price / Volume Relationship, I did so within the context of having all tool sets (coarse, medium and fine) available and on my computer screens. As a result, my brain would often 'see' "what the YM was doing" prior to the close of an ES five minute bar. Even after removing all medium and fine tools (YM, STR-SQU, DOM, OTR Charts) from my screens, I could still 'see' the YM doing its thing. This contruct didn't, in and of itself, provide an advantage. It simple allowed me to see the structure at various levels, and as such, did not require me to anotate a tape. After all, I could see when a specific tape ended. I didn't need lines to show me when the process had completed. Later, when attempting to transfer the process of learning this stuff to others, I had to re-introduce all levels of annotation, so others might 'see' that which my brain learned in a different fashion. I've found the best way for people to learn is to take a known entity and annotate from beginning to end. The lessons learned from doing so provides the contruct for all fractals moving forward. By now, you should absolutely know the market ended the contruction of an up channel at 14:15 Eastern Time yesterday (10-13-2010, close of bar). Once you can know with 100% certainty that the down channel has completed, you can then go back, and create annotations which indicate same. Then, you will have learned how to logically, correctly, and completely annotate a chart. Whether or not you realize that you've learned this skill is another matter entirely. - Spydertrader
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For those having difficulty understanding the information gucci has attempted to convey, might I suggest continuing the discussion from a slightly different orientation (in an effort to 'fast-forward' the application of said information onto 'present day'). Doing so, allows everyone to 'set aside' that which provides them difficulty - with the goal being to return to reading gucci's words after having the ability to understand 'part' of what gucci hopes to get you to see. Once one solves part of a problem, by definition, one then has a different problem before them. The market begins a new cycle (for all fractals) at 14:15 (Eastern Time) yesterday (10-13-2010). Start the annotation process from that point in time. HTH. - Spydertrader "There is only one problem in life: How do you go about the process of solving problems."
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I encourage you to improve your annotation technique. Note the differences between your annotations and mine (See Attached). You cannot see that which the market provides if you create lazy annotations. HTH. - Spydertrader
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You might start by asking yourself why some of your Point Three's aren't connected to a Right Trend Line. Don't Point Three's create the RTL by using Point One? - Spydertrader
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Whether you experience doubt or confusion (or not) has no influence on what the market does after a Volatility Expansion. Start by recognizing what one must do with the right trend line after a VE. - Spydertrader
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I want everyone to head in the direction where they do not have to assume. They simply, know. The market has indicated the exact way to annotate, which also allows a trader to test whichever technique they choose against that which the market provides. - Spydertrader
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If one has set as a goal to locate an FTT (Failure to Traverse), how can the market fail to do that which it has already completed? Has not Price traversed its container by creating a VE? - Spydertrader
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Didn't you see a VE just prior to the area you referenced? What must come next after the market creates a VE? What did the market then provide? - Spydertrader
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The market (any market) exists on a fractal basis. As a result, Volume must cycle through a specific Order of Events before Price ends its current trend. Otherwise, the current Price trend continues. Monitor Volume and by doing so, have the ability to know whether the market finds itself in continue (hold) or change (exit or reverse). "The Price / Volume Relationship" Thread in the Technical Analysis Forum contains the specific details. - Spydertrader
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Price and Volume is all I use. - Spydertrader
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Whatever conclusion you reach (based on a sufficient data set), make sure to test it against that which the market provides. - Spydertrader
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Such is the case for this specific example, but not necessarily all examples. One must strive to locate solutions which apply to all contexts, and not, apply solutions which work for a singular event. Ever see Price shoot straight down (like a rocket) on super high increasing Volume directly after an FTT of an Up container? Does your solution work for such a scenario? The market (for whatever reason) might not provide a trough until well after Price crossed my previous right trend line (RTL). Now what do I do? HTH. - Spydertrader
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Remember the goal of this exercise: Accuracy and Precision. In other words, we want to annotate correctly and consistantly - all day - every day we look at a chart. You've arrived at an answer based on a 'context oriented' solution. In order to know whether your rationale for this context applies to all other contexts, one must then locate a scenario where you feel a different solution applies and test accordingly. Keep in mind the possibility your mind may have merged several concepts together (such as Point One's always overlap, Point Three's occassionally overlap, but Point Two's never overlap) in an effort to arrive at a solution to an old problem. I'm merely suggesting a better way to know whether (or not) a solution represents the solution. One must always allow the market to provide the answers. HTH. - Spydertrader
