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DaKine
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Everything posted by DaKine
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Hi Thales, Thanks, It does make sense as I understand wave subdivisions, but need to freshen up on that part of my trading as I put it away along with trading fib confluences to focus on price.... do you only count subdivisions on the main wave 3 or do you subdivide waves 1, 3, and 5? Why I ask is because if we are subdividing waves, wave 1 doesn't seem like much at all. Again its up to the traders interpretation and hence my confusion w/ this particular count. My question is how do you distinguish wave 3 of 3 as such in real time and not get confused with it being the end of wave 3 as I did? Thanks for your help...
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Hi Thales, I have also done some EW study from Robert Miner. I actually had this count prior to my trade. It is more visible on the renko chart than on the 15m and it was one of the reasons for the short... With anything I guess it is left up to the interpretation of the trader and here I was just plain wrong lol... Your thoughts on my EW count? Thanks
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Stopped on the SAR trade... Thales, is there anything that would have had you off the sim trades I made. The first trade I can see why that may have not been the best as I am shorting right into previous R now S. The SAR on the breakout of the H would you have been off that because of the overextended nature of the move and as you said maybe ready for a rest? I was thinking the first short would retrace more... How about the 1.4420 short is that something you would have taken? Thanks...
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Took a stop on that trade and flipped long target 1.4500 1.4438 Entry 1.4409 Stop Comments appreciated... Thanks
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Possible 6e short My issue is this, broke out of longer term range and market is finding S above/at prior R @ 1.4416, market looks like it wants to get to 1.4500. I am also unsure if this is just congestion after the b/o in which case I would be selling right into interim S and my stop is just adding fuel to the move up... Short 1.4415 possible T1 @ midpoint of range 1.4380 or bottom of range which to me is less likely at 1.4350 Stop 1.4437 Comments appreciated. Update: So I took this sim short and there are a couple of things I'm not too happy about. My short was right into a mini congestion area and good volume came in at the low...
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Hi Thales, I'm reading the thread from start to finish so I don't repeat questions that have been asked before and I did come across this prior post which is similar to the EURUSD trade setup posted earlier this week. I am wondering if this b/o trade from congestion is still valid in your eyes since we were close to the prior b/d level. In a prior post you said that you would have been off a similar trade since we were too close to the breakdown level... I don't mean to scrutinize everything I just want to make sure I clarify these concepts. The difference I can see here is that prior to the congestion play we did get above the break down level found some R then came back down, the b/o play would have given you at least 1:1 to that R but not to the actual b/d level itself. Thanks.
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Hi Thales, 6e/EURUSD finally got to targets but if you were playing it the whipsaws were enough to drive you nutz. The first b/o only got to the previous swing H then tested the lows of the congestion if you were in that trade would you have SARed or just took the stop? Then when your stop got hit and if you did reverse what appeared to be a breakdown was actually just a fakeout and a return to congestion. Then another test of the lows and fake b/d to shakeout weak hands and suck in some shorts before rocketing to targets... Would you have played the b/o of the larger range? Thanks
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Thanks Thales for your input... The 6e didnt follow the EURUSD move down just stayed in a congestion area, do you often notice that disconnect? The b/o of the congestion area on the 6e without price coming alive as the EURUSD did is still valid to you? Are there any other times you do not like to initiate trades? I have been staying up and trading the London open I am assuming London open to NY close would be ok? Thanks.
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Hi Thales, Been lurking around this thread for awhile always good stuff. Thanks. I simmed a short this morning morning based off the 123 pattern w/ targets near the LOD. Obviously this trade is going the other way now per your above post... Was this a valid short trade and if you were short the b/o to the upside I would assume would be a SAR trade... Thanks
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Sammy Plasma TV... my old TV got busted when I moved . Didn't wait in line but it was still craZy :frustrated:
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Short R 1790-1793 Short Mid Point 1780 also possible but don't like it as much it being a MP and all, but worth noting... Short R 1775 Short R 71.50-72.50 Strength in Globex and above 72s may go long looking for a test of 1790-1793 Micro S at 1766 so possible Long Long 1760-1762 S 1752 possible Long but market showing weakness... S 1737 -1740 Long but further weakness Ranges 1752 - 1772 61 MP 1772 - 1792 81 MP Today did not take the opening short when price opened at support even though globex showed weakness and R at 91s. Ended up with a Short at 78s and got peanuts when S appeared at 72s didnt go long but exited my positions prematurely as the market broke through the range and entered the 52-72 range. I had some Support at 62s so I took a shot when supply line broke w a DB attempt (tight stop) got stopped just before the market reversed at 60... Expected price to get back up to 71 72 area but did not take a short there... back at it tomorrow c-yas
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Today the range widened and the market found support around 1790... Tomorrow look for: Longs 1789-92 Short breakdown of 1790s Below 1790s back in the 1792-1772 range w/ Mid 1781 Short 1802 Intraday and Globex 1802 has been R and it also happens to be the Midpoint of the wider range of 1790 - 1814 so a short may make sense but could be choppy... Break above 1802 look for longs to test top of range and potential b/o... 1805s may slow up longs but I am less inclined to be short up here possible test 1814s... Short 1812-1814 may be less inclined if the morning shows strength potential b/o Today, missed the DT during Globex at 1812, woulda been a nice one . The short at Globex micro Resistance at 1805s also 11/17 Mid also missed... Got stopped twice on a 1797 and 1793 long. The market then reverses after stopping me out the second time and rallies :crap: boo hoo i know... Thanks wj for all your contributions to this thread :applaud:
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Back to business for me... Have the same levels as wj Long Support 1797 - 92 zone 1805 midpont Short Resistance 1814 -1812 zone Breakout above 1814 look for long if not already long at previous R 14-12s... Breakdown below 1797-1792 look for short w/ bottom of that range being 72 w/ mid of 81 I have my attempt at Supply and Demand lines drawn in and they are forming a wedge or my perception of a wedge... Still playing S/R but interested in seeing how the wedge if it is a wedge plays out... Cya in chat :ciao:
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I believe this is the chart for this...
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Its a range chart I changed it to a 1m here... Is this more representative of the hinge? Thanks!
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Would this be the correct drawing of the hinge?
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Do we have the ability to edit our posts once they have been submitted? If we can please tell me how I can't seem to find the option :doh:!
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We had the 75-78 levels pegged in the foresight thread... and this is the SWC for me as I did not take it. :doh: We had a nice DL heading up to 75s so the first time up would have been a difficult short for me but we did have TD. 1. The test of 76.75 on less volume with TD could have been a possible entry but I was afraid of new Hs. 2. The breakdown of the SB b/t 73 and 76 may also have been a possibility but you may have gotten shaken out. I don't know how I feel about this one... 3. The third test @ 76.50 @ 11:10 I guess was a must take but by that time I was done... Anyways I'd like your insight into where you think the best entry for this trade was... Thanks
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Not much has changed as far as levels go for me... I will look for a short @ the 75-78s treading lightly as we have the possibility of new Hs... I will look for a short @ 61s, sellers defended this area on Friday it is also the midpoint of the 40-80 range. The current Overnight H 57s may also be a possibility for a short... Friday's Low 46.75 may be a possibility for a long. I will also look for a long @ 40s - 43 treading lightly as a breakthrough of 37 takes us out of this 4 day range.
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Levels for tomorrow... If we don't get an ON test of R @ 72 - 75 I may take a shot at a long at 59 where buyers held price into the close. If an opportunity presents itself at 72-75 R I will take a short there being aware of the possibility of new Hs. A long at 54s maybe a possibility. Long 40-43s may also be a possibility but another test of that area will make me tread lightly. What clues if any does the break of the demand line give us and does the fact that we are at the midpoint on the daily channel lead us to expect a choppy range bound market? Your comment and critiques are welcome, this thread has been a great help to me thanks to all those involved...
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I apologize if this is the wrong place to ask this question but I'd like to know if shorts at 1 and 2 are valid trades... 1. Short the breakdown out of the current range on the retest. 2. Short at R 54s, this particular trade had a nice TD. Or does the fact that we tested the bottom of the range and rejected it have you off this particular trade? Thanks
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If I let my contracts rollover from U to Z what is my price on the Z contracts? How do the longer term holders handle contract expiry? Thanks.
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I don't have Ensign but here is MDs VWAP w/PVP in yellow... Images | ChartHub.com
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Having trouble wrapping my brain around this one... can you elaborate please. Thanks!
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I am going to take a shot at this... Opening above the 2.5 day VAH and being unable to get back into that distribution you should not have been looking to fade the DVAH / extremes for shorts and instead should have been looking for longs at the day's DVAL watching for price acceptance back into the 2.5 Day distribution to prove your long bias was incorrect... Getting into Tuesday's selling tail gave us a heads up that we could get a test of where the breakdown occurred 1013s and ultimately a test of Monday's POC 1016s where we found Resistance. DK
