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Kiwi

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by Kiwi

  1. Awwww commmonnn ... the facts are getting fuzzy as hell. "Technical are derivates of price and can not therefore drive price. They are calculated on past prices so how can they lead future price?" Rubbish (to Horus too). Price can drive price (and thus so can derivatives of price) ... see the typical overreaction in the marketplace ... that's not just driven by fundamentals and news, its frequently driven by peoples reactions to what's happening to price. "This is especially evedent in the indecies, where no contract is made until a buyer and seller come together." Presumably you mean in futures contracts based on the future value of indexes. Still wrong really. Sure you need a buyer and seller (of kinds) to create the contracts in the first place but most day to day trading doesn't require the creation of new contracts. "We ask 10 people if they are bullish. They all say yes and they are long. Well, there is a bear on the other side of the trade (the seller). Therefore the amount of bulls and bears is equal." Here we go again. Frequently in a market move up the buyers are bulls but the sellers are not bears ... they are people who went long at a price they perceived as value and are now unloading positions for a profit. So they are hardly bears and in fact after a pull back and the re-establishment of value may be active bulls again. Come to think of it, substantial elements of an up move are driven by bears who sold too early and are thus buying back contracts as cascading stops are smashed. They may still be bears, just bears in pain. There's more but that's enough from me.
  2. Buy 1 G of new ram. If the machine stops working properly then buy the second G of the new ram type.
  3. Defn: TA = the analysis of price or price and volume to determine probable future price movement (note avoidance of the predict, all, and is words sometime used in such definitions). Defn: TA Trading = trade entry and exit management based on understandings gained from the observation of price or price&volume. Filters such as indicators, market profile etc may or may not have been applied depending on the sect of the analyser. Note: Your TA is voodoo if its not what I do. But your voodoo may work even if it isn't what I do. Note: Intermarket analysis may or may not be considered TA depending on individual preference ... personally I favour regarding IMA as a fundamental because movement in another market is like a fundamental change, it provides a force on a market but the market may or may not respond to that force: and TA is the observation of the primary market to decide if it is (probably (probability always)) responding to the forces.
  4. And as much as I love Wikipedia I note that even High School students are no longer allowed to quote it as a source in assignments. Too unreliable.
  5. Re psychology, in my earlier post I said: I neglected to recognize that it's also peoples reactions to prices historical (and very recent) behaviour so there is a second order effect. Re psychology, we need to remember that its also the reactions of machines (programs) to the recent (milliseconds potentially) price and volume action. The reactions to price and volume action will be partially responsible for both the overreaction of markets (people jump on because they can't miss out) and the under reaction (people holding back even though they have new information because they want to see if the "market" reacts to the information).
  6. James, Its time for you to start some new threads. I suggest that the following threads will reveal peoples true natures (and some beliefs that will amaze others). Trend following is for losers Scaling In doesn't work Scaling Out is inferior behaviour Moslems are better than Christians etc etc. And don't you have a presidential election we could apply technical analysis to?
  7. I stop trading when I've had a fight with my teenage daughter ... I just take the day off.
  8. If by IS you mean its there NOW then No. It takes time for the markets to adjust to information so although peoples reactions to information will be reflected in price, there is a time lag and opportunity for both fundamentalists and trend followers on various timescales as a result. Key points from a trading perspective are that there is lag and that what is reflected in price is peoples reactions to information.
  9. I'm with dalby. Most arguments against TA are generated by first defining TA in some limiting way. And said limitations are almost always as wrong as they are convenient to the arguer. Now James's offence is less egregious than usual but he's still doing it. Bad boy Soul. If its based on price or price an volume or some combination of these then its technical analysis. FWIW I trade based on Price alone using a couple of mas as a prop to help me see what longer time traders perceive as recent value in a trend. No volume. No market profile. No volume at bid/ask. No reading action on the dom. Just nice bar charts with a couple of mas to prop up my sense of current value. It works on usindexes, commodities, bonds, estx50, bund, eurfx, nikkei, kospi and that fiend that would have pleased fu manchu, the HSI
  10. Kiwi

    Locked Limit

    Yes it can stay there for days. I've experienced that with lumber (quite common on lumber) and live cattle when some fools took fright about mad cow disease.
  11. IE7 pops up quickly because windows preloads it. You can get a firefox addon that does the same thing. I've got a core2duo e6600 with 2G of 800Mhz ram and find it pops up quite quickly without. I think a large cache of ram (i only use about 600M) means that most of it just stays in memory waiting for the next load.
  12. I have now looked at the guide now and am planning to recommend it to a friend who has a similar problem. I think he will find it helpful for pinpointing what is happening to him. At present it needs a bit more information on some of the things that can be done with the information he discovers (it tells what to do but doesn't always give "enough" information about how to do it) but I have corresponded with the author and believe that he will provide suggestions to any correspondent and will probably boost those areas of the course. So, I would recommend it. I also think that the author is genuine and would provide additional feedback in response to someone who does the work and still can't quite make the leap required. In fact, if your friend joined this forum, had done the work and published a summary of what he discovered about himself here I and others could help with any left over gaps in building his or her action plan. That would be a useful thing to do on the forum without giving away the intellectual property in the guide. Note: I actually got the authors other book but found it irrelevant to me. At the time the above question was being asked I went back and explained that and asked for a refund. To my pleasant surprise Brian gave me one without question.
  13. My stop percentage is a little under 0.05% I am of course a day trader.
  14. I think the problem at sites is a little different to just the fighting. I love ET and reserve it for somewhere to have a scrap (unlike here or T2W, say). IMO part of the fighting problem is caused by the mix of long time posters, long time traders (not always the same), arrogant newbs, and normal newbs, and I guess newbs who really don't know just how much they don't know. So you get newbs pretending (self-deception?) to know it all, long timers who've seen every question asked before (including the stupid ones) and bored traders just out for a bit of fun all mixed up together. Incendiary, a lot. Educational, not very. Entertaining, frequently. Often the fights occur when experienced traders who still care about misinformation get into arguments with the arrogant newb types when they offer opinions/answers to other newbies that are just plain wrong. The experienced traders who don't care or just laugh a bit at the stupidity of it don't actually get involved. A new board tends to get a honeymoon period where long term conflicts don't yet exist. One challenge is to find a way so that your more experienced posters don't get bored with newbie trader questions and opinions. If they do, most will either leave or perhaps seek entertainment destructively (suggest ET for such games). Also, unless you've a specific reason for participating in a board they tend to become a little boring over time once repetition sets in. It will be interesting to see how the premium club works. Another challenge is to detect long term conflicts and defuse the interaction of the sides (jack/grob and everyone who doesn't believe in him is a good example on et, trader28 and anyone else, me and anyone I think is an f'wit, etc etc). Strong action against both parties needs to be balanced with your desire to keep one or both sides still participating on the board. A laissez faire approach doesn't seem to work. Having been a member of a lot of boards at one stage or another of my trading development I shall watch and participate with interest.
  15. Heres a trick TG Go over your plan again. Ask yourself which trades (or setups+entries) are the best 50%. Get rid of the worst 50% or ask for a retracement before entry so that the RR becomes fantastic pulling them into the best 50%.
  16. Kiwi

    Wire transfers

    Go back to the people who sent the wire. Tell them X didn't get it. Ask them to get it tracked down and withdrawn if its gone into the banking world ether.
  17. Ideas. 1. Tell us exactly why you're supposed to enter and exit ... please post the 1A4 page trade plan with your setup, entry and exit rules revealed. Without that, we don't know that you're not trading correctly or that you have rules. No point going beyond 1 without it actually.
  18. Are you convinced that learning to trade weekly timeframes will prepare you to trade 5 minute or lower timeframes?
  19. Interactive Brokers hosts your connection on the US, Hong Kong or Swiss servers depending on which part of the world you are trading. I suspect the Nor-Switzerland-Nor delays would be acceptable for most forms of trading. Thats assuming they have your stocks in their product list. You'll need to check on their website.
  20. Saxo has a bad reputation out there. Try Oanda (better) or Interactive Brokers if you want to trade currencies. Try Interactive Brokers if you want to trade worldwide futures or stocks. They are the standard by which all others are judged.
  21. LOL. Someone should disagree. So its me :p Paper trading has a number of places in the game of developing, testing, and then trading your edges. 1. Forward testing after you have backtested an edge. 2. Building confidence that an edge works in real time ... leading to small trading to build more confidence and large trading to become rich, rich, rich !!! 3. Building confidence if you have fallen off your edge or your discipline. Too many people keep losing money too long in a bad streak. If the cause is psychological paper trading can be an effective part of recovery; as can rehearsal etc etc. The common practice of maligning paper trading reflects a lack of understanding of where it can be useful. Like any tool, its up to the artisan to use it well. Cheers
  22. Kiwi

    17" or 19"

    20 inch widescreen .... gives 1680 x 1050
  23. Get used to pressing F5 and F6 a lot on the charts until you start to really understand it. Press F5 ... change the price display format. Its like tradestation in that it has a huge amount of hidden complexity (once u are setup and using it in the same way day by day) but its like a flight sim game compared with doom ... there is a bit of learning. Its weakest point is in drawing tools and editing text (imho) but I think admin will get onto that area again once they've got the new "easy" dll creation all bedded down and everyone's happy with that.
  24. You can change the scale or move the scale up and down by left clicking in the price scale and then moving the mouse up while held. You can choose which you want. Or you can hold Ctrl down as well to get the other one. I think this might be an advanced feature but I'm not sure. It does make rescaling pretty easy. It will also let you adjust the "white space" around the current automatic scaling. I think many people particularly those used to the tradestation way of doing things (i came from ts2000i) find Sierra counterintuitive for a few weeks. But most get past that.
  25. James, You probably want to look at the scaling. I have only done MP experimentally because I don't need it for my trading but when I was experimenting I used a constant range scale set to cover 2-3 days of low range movement and then moved the "window" up and down. Try automatic. Try a set amount centered around the last price on the screen. I'm not sure what would work for you.
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