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suriNotes

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Posts posted by suriNotes

  1. Posted

    Hi Taq,

     

    Thank you for your post.

     

    2B Targets are prior Swing Lows/Highs before the pattern

    emerged and its distance ratios.

     

    To my knowledge books from Scott Carney, Carolyn Borden,

    Robert Miner, Larry Pesavento and Bryce Gilmore offered

    timing analysis/projections theories. There may be others and

    if I remember I will post again.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

  2. Posted

    Hi Taq,

     

    Yes, it is a Inverse Dragon setup. Thanks for posting 240m chart.

    No need to have 5% minimum for the Dragon legs. Dragon setup

    is one of the variation of Double Tops/Bottoms. Very rarely

    DT and DB's have perfect bottoms/tops.

     

    Here is another take on the same @ZG 240m chart. It is

    Trader Vic's 2B Top (Irregular Top/Bottom) with

    Entry/Stop/Targets.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

    attachment.php?attachmentid=11355&stc=1&d=1245015451

    Gold_240_Jun1409.gif.027cd593789c1904c658d8ff7f2009bf.gif

  7. Posted · Edited by suriNotes

    Pappo is correct with his assessment of Pattern logic and coding/testing patterns.

    In my experience, patterns do have excellent reliability with great repeatable logic.

    Many successful traders have implemented patterns/code logic to take advantage of them.

    Most pattern success or failure depends on knowing the pattern logic with market

    context and knowing how/where they are forming. Without market context logic,

    testing patterns is a futile exercise. Programmers tend to miss this logic when testing

    patterns. Also, individual mastering of patterns requires thorough market knowledge

    and experience and mastery may be limited to just few patterns. Coding patterns may be

    more difficult for even most seasoned programmers too.

     

     

    Excellent trading ideas are discarded due to poor coding and poor back-testing methods.

    I have seen this many times in my career as many brilliant programmers with great ideas

    but with little or no trading knowledge discard their concepts as not profitable due to

    novice back-testing methods/results. Also, each trading platform have various trade

    execution logic and hence many Automated Trading Systems back/forward testing results

    suffer from wrong/poor execution methods.

     

     

    Here is an example of a recent Bloomberg Article where TA was slandered.

     

    "Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss (Update3)" by Michael Tsang and Eric Martin

     

    Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

     

    Tsang and Martin (journalists) with little TA and no real trading/investing/programming

    experience published an article and slandered the TA and indicators due to their wrong

    back-testing results... Bloomberg published the article as it was written by their journalists.

    Many TA experts (Murphy, McClellen et. al.) have written their concern to Bloomberg.

    The editors at Bloomberg have softly admitted but sadly it was never removed.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

  9. Posted

    Hi ephi144,

     

    Yes, you can build tools based on Tick Counts...

    The count itself can be obtained by UpTicks & DownTicks.

     

    Here is an article I discussed some Intrabar Execution tools

    using Time & Tick Counts etc. (Stocks and Commodities Magazine, July 2008)

     

    Intrabar Execution Tools

     

    Regards,

    Suri

     

     

    For tradestation:

     

    is there a way to create an indicator based on tick count?

    i would like to create and indicator based on tick counts so that

    there are 3 MAs being drawn on a chart but they are based on tickcounts.

  12. Posted

    Hi Taz,

     

    Thanks for your post...

     

    I am not a big follower of Cycle theories, but

    I noticed the symmetry of swings and thought

    it was an interesting find....

     

    JM Hurst talks about 40-period cycle (and others) to describe trends

    in his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing"

    and 1/2 cycle (20 period) lengths to find targets/patterns etc.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

     

     

     

     

    Suri, what's the deal with 41 days? Looks interesting, but is there any rhyme or reason to a 41 day cycle?

    Tx, Taz

  16. Posted

    Hi taq,

     

    Good work!! I do think your WW chart is correct.

    I have access to EOD data for some stocks from India..

    But do not have intraday data for BSE/NSE stocks

    to plot in TS.

     

    Your second chart also looks good. AB=CD pattern completion

    may not mean automatic reversal...

    It does require Price-Action (LLs) and some pivotal action

    from 'D' level to signal a reversal.

     

    Thanks for your posts.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

     

     

    have a look at the chart is probable target zones are correct?

  18. Posted

    Hi,

     

    There is a simple trick (in TS) using Plot commands...

    If you convert the number to a String, it will plot the value in

    StatusLine like in this chart and it will NOT plot line on chart...

    (Add Analysis Technique display from Format Window for StatusLine)

     

    Pl. see the code below and the chart images.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

     

     

     

    //ADX Modified

     

    inputs: Length(14), ADXCriteria(20);

     

    variables: ADXValue(0), adxColor(0);

     

    //Begin ADX Code

    ADXValue = ADX(Length);

     

    if ADXValue < ADXCriteria then

    adxColor = DARKGREEN

    else adxColor=RED;

     

    Plot1("ADX: "+ numtoStr(ADXValue,2),"ADXVal",adxColor);

    ADXV2.gif.870e79e7a58f09a92995b1e43d2c4dce.gif

    ADXV3.gif.976c723c94778bf30e5c2292faf8ecbf.gif

  20. Posted

    Great advice provided by others...

     

    As Soultrader said, with your current situation, trading may NOT be

    a great option. Scared money NEVER makes money in Trading.

    Without proper mindset and preparation, imagine how devastated

    you would be if you lose your capital in next few weeks to months

    and how tough it would be to get back. Don't underestimate Failure...

     

    Trading career is one of the few careers where success rate is very small

    and could be elusive for a very long time. Trading career is also one of the

    toughest as it demands you to be in your best of mind and body every

    single day to succeed. There are other careers which are far better than

    trading career and may offer better security and life. Very smart and

    successful people (in other areas) are drawn to trading world, but few

    realize quickly trading may not be their best bet and move on to other

    rewarding ventures. Evaluate yourself first and see if trading really fits

    you and your overall goal.

     

    Take a year or two and learn the basics, build a plan, method or system

    with some solid analysis... More importantly work on yourself, your goals

    and how you will achieve them. No one mastered the markets without

    mastering themselves first. Education plays a big role and psychology plays

    even bigger role in your success. Write a journal (honest) of all of your

    progress and see in a year or two if you do want to venture Trading. Start

    slow and build confidence in yourself and your method/system first!!

     

    Wish you the best!!

     

     

    Regards,

    Suri

  22. Posted

    than what would be the probable target for the same?

     

     

    Hi taq,

     

    Thank you for your post...

     

    Before I can answer your question of 'where is the probable target',

    I will address if a Pattern is considered complete and if so, how to

    compute the targets etc. Computing Targets is the easy part :)

     

    From Scott Carney's Book(s): Harmonic Trading of the Financial Markets,

    Harmonic levels in reversal zones define critical levels from where the

    dominant trend may change. A Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) is defined as

    convergence of at least three or more Harmonic levels from the pattern.

    Strong reversal price-action and formation of pivots supported with cycles

    or Moving Averages etc. could signal completion of the pattern and

    potential reversal in its major trend. (See the SENSEX chart with reversal rules...)

     

    Also note, patterns also fail and prices reversed from the PRZs also fail to signal

    the reversal of trends (some pattern failures are more powerful than patterns).

     

    In the SENSEX chart (potential Bearish Crab) presented here, the PRZ

    is defined as price reaching three or more critical harmonic ratios (of XA, AB, CD legs)

    near a key MA (200 sma). So far the pattern did not indicate

    any completion signals. Also no clear indications if the price

    will reverse from PRZ (Lower-Lows, Pivoting action etc.) or

    any key pivot is made from the PRZ.

     

    Once a reversal is made, you can use Fib. Retracement tool

    to compute the Targets. Potential Targets would be 0.38CD level

    and 0.62CD to 0.786CD levels... If these target levels also

    coinciding with prior SwingHigh/lows or MAs, they may act as

    further support/resistance areas. Your risk of this short-trade

    may be highest level of the Pivot (D) + few points.

     

    So, from the current chart pattern, if pattern is complete and if price

    reverses from current (11000) levels, the first target may be near

    10070 level and second target may be 9300 levels.

     

    Hope that answers your question.

     

    Regards,

    Suri

    sensex_bearcrab_chart.thumb.gif.17bbaa3465b1e75b5eda633ee0bfe8ae.gif

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