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suriNotes
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Posts posted by suriNotes
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Here are potential scenarios from S&P's daily chart patterns.
1. The most visible pattern in S&P since June 2010 until now (Nov. 12, 2010) is Inv. Head and Shoulders. Late Sept. SPX traded above neckline to confirm Inv. H&S pattern. The target for Inv. H&S Pattern is 1250 (100% of Necline to low of Head). This target is also inline with X5 target 1231-1246 (price cluster).
2. The current famous pattern is Trader Vic's 2B (2T) Pattern. It is a form of
irregular Double Top formation. First Top is from Late April at 1219 and the second potential top is on Nov. 5th at 1227. If S&P slides and closes below 1195 (also 21-EMA), it may confirm 2T pattern. The trigger for a short-trade is to enter the low of
the bar which closed below 1195. Set a STOP above the Nov. 5th High + few points (1229-1230). Target is at least the 50% of swing range nearing the Neckline (or 'B' in X5 pattern). Ultimate target for 2T pattern is between 61-76 of prior swing.
3. Last but most vivid pattern is X5 pattern. It says, current slide may be just a pullback.
In that case, next price cluster may offer some resistance (1231-1246). If price
reverses from current sell-off and trades higher, there are two possible scenarios.
'D' is trading outside of XA range
A. Bearish Butterfly (Target 1.27XA to 1277).
B. Bearish Crab (Target: 1.62XA: 1350).
4. ABC Bullish pattern is also embedded in the X5 pattern. It shows the
Price and Time Targets coinciding with some of X5 target ranges.
Disclaimer: The chart analysis provided here is for educational purpose only.
Regards,
Suri
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SPX and SPY Bearish X5 patterns and its Reversal Level Clusters.
Regards,
Suri
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Every trader goes thro' these Cycle of Market Emotions during a trade.
In my view, it is helpful to know these stages while trading.
Regards,
Suri
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Hi,
Some stock earnings reports are always hit or miss. Specially stocks like GE, AA, PFE, MSFT... I do close my positions (Stocks/Options) before earnings and very rarely take the risk of keeping stock thro' earnings. For TS, there are tools (free) to get earnings dates on the TS forums... I posted one called suri.Fundamentals using theGuru's NpEarnings.dll which gets many key Stock fundamentals information along with Earnings Dates/Alerts.
One of the simple lesson I learnt from Jeff Cooper writings "Never convert a Short-Term Trade (day trade) to a Long-term investment. Specially a losing one." He goes on to say, "Never take a Losing day-trade position home."
Here are my GE analysis calls (daily charts) for the past year...
When trading ABC patterns, my first targets are always few ticks before 100%AB size ONLY. I will re-enter the trade if price retraces from 100%AB level to 62% and bounces back above 100%AB level (to show continuation of strength) and if market also shows continuation of strength to next target levels (127-162% AB). In GE case, now I'll enter a long position above 17.10 (IF) with targets 18.50-18.75 and Stop: 16.70.
Regards,
Suri
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Here is SPY X5 (Gartley) Pattern...
Also, a video (30 sec) compilation of recent X5 Patterns in Equities & Indexes.
Animoto - X5 (Gartley) Patterns
Regards,
Suri
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Top Investing Blogs ranked by Alexa Ranks.
newsflashr - latest business_blogs news headlines sorted by feeds
Regards,
Suri
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Suri,Have you ever tried dedicating some programming time to WW? It would be interesting to hear statistics on any of the patterns you detailed above..
% patterns completed profitable
average drawdown %
Risk/reward
I can see some value in what your are doing, but say at this point where we are right now. Would you be long or short biased?
It seems like there is always a target beyond, and if there is not then a whole new trend might develop that doesn't fit the pattern.
I guess my question is, what is it that would give you the confidence to switch to short bias here. Would it be the statistical probability of the patterns you detail?
waveslider
Hi Waveslider,
I have never written WolfeWave code... Few times thought of it, but never did.
I do see the confluence of Harmonic Patterns, WW and Pitchforks tools as great trading arsenal. Recently I have been picking some great interest in the Pitchforks... There is not much of WW information in the public domain other than some snippets.
I use the Index/Sector Patterns to trade underlying instruments (Equities/Options) and I am still Long on many positions initiated in the last 4-5 weeks. Some of the similar Gartley patterns existed in GE, GS, GOOG already exited the trades.
Pattern reversal zones are (only) suggested by the Pattern with target level confluences.
Gartley Pattern itself does not show any Trend reversals, in my view. I use another set of tools (exhaustion, price-action etc.) to determine if the Underlying trend has changed from PRZs. Also, one-day reversals rarely qualify for a Trend-Reversal. I do prefer the reversals from second/third PRZs than from first PRZ.
Here is an example of Gartley formation in recent NQ. See the 1990-2020 area... Although Gartley suggested a first PRZ area, it is actually a Distribution area than a
trend-reversal area.
Hope I answered your query.
Regards,
Suri
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... i am curious as to what kind of gartley patterns these are... the gartley i am familiar with has a 0.618 as its first retracement.
... and bearish butterfly a 0.786 as its first retracement.
...but this has a 50-something % as the first retracement
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...also.... i don't understand why your expectation is that the pattern will be completed
... i thought that there was a bearish implication if and only if the pattern completes
...i have never read anything stating that if the first two retracements were completed.... that that would somehow cause the third retracement to be completed correctly
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....please forgive me if i am ignorant about these patterns.
Hi,
You do raise very good points.. When H.M. Gartley first wrote, he wrote them as Gartley patterns only. Later Larry Pesavento, Bryce Gilmore, Scott Carney did great work and gave them various ratios and lengths and various pattern names (Crab, Butterfly, Bat, Gartley)...
To my knowledge, Scott Carney's work is brilliant regarding the Harmonic Patterns.
All three books from Scott Carney have Harmonic Patterns with great examples.
To avoid this massive confusion, I call all of them X5 Patterns signifying 5-point patterns.
Also, for me the position of 'B' and 'D' identifies various form of patterns and tells what to expect. I also have a big poster (self-drawn) with all these patterns on my Trading room wall right above my trading workspace.
About B: If the ratio is upto 50% of XA, then it is a Bat with other key ratios. If the ratio is greater than 0.618 and upto 0.786 it may be Crab.. But if ratio is near 0.618 of XA it may be Gartley with lot of combinations of other leg ratios... Very rarely these ratios are precise and if they ever form, they are all called 'Prefect' patterns. I do identify various patterns with these ratios but it is too confusing. Hence, I call them all X5 patterns and focus on how to auto-identify X5 patterns (in code) and look for continuation (CD leg) OR Reversals (from D) to trade.
Now Looking at D, if D is within XA it may be Gartley or Bat, but if D is beyond XA range, then it may be Crab or Butterfly. So, knowing this situation, there are TWO targets possible. If Price reverses from D, the reversal is 0.786 to 0.886 of XA (within XA), then it is Gartley or Bat target (and a reversal zone). If Price is from 1.13 to 1.27 of XA then it is Crab or Butterfly target. Hence, I have two areas (targets) for Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ). Price action from these levels shows potential reversal trade setups.
I have been studying, building/trading Harmonic Patterns/Harmonic Ratios over 12+ years now along with other patterns and the theory behind them still fascinate me.
Hope It answers some of your questions.
Regards,
Suri
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I have an idea on sugar futures but my broker (velocity futures) does not support it.Does anyone know of a broker with low opening capital requirements that supports this product? Its ticker symbol is YO but I'm not sure on what exchange it is traded.
I trade Sugar thro' SGG (ETN) like a stock via IB. It's Primary exchange is NYSE Arca.
It mimics the @SB (NYBOT's Sugar continuous contract). You can perhaps search iPathetn.com site for more info.
Regards,
Suri
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Here is an update to SPX and SPY Gartley patterns...
Regards,
Suri
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Greetings,I've recently tried to record my 2.5 hour trading session using Camtasia Studio 7, the resul was horrible - I had to scale down the framerate to 5 per second and then produce it, the video was being produced for 2 hours, and a 1.5 GB file of 1 trading day was spit out.
I'm looking for the same thing - making a video of my trading screen for 2.5 hours - but with reasonable processing time and size (few 100 MBs max). Any other software recommended for this?
With Camtasia Studio, you can adjust the Clip Speed while building the video (from Project). You can almost reduce the 2.5 hour recording session to 15 minutes (90%).
I used to record entire day of trading and playback in 40+ minutes...
Search for 'Clip speed' in Camtasia Help.
Regards,
Suri
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Hi Everyone,I only know of a HighD / LowD function to get high / low of day value. May I ask what is the function for session high / low?
Please help me out. Thanks!
Best regards,
See KL
I think there is a function called 'OHLCSessionsAgo' which you can use to compute HighS, LowS for sessions. Search TS Forums.
Regards,
Suri
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Thanks Suri. Appreciate another perspective adding depth to the possibilities of current patterns. It seems like we are all a little bullish, but don't see this market action holding up for long. The possibility of blasting to new highs hasn't even been discussed... and since it hasn't I would imagine that we're not alone and not many would suspect it. A great motivation for the markets to do just that!Have you had much luck with quantifying and testing patterns like gartley over large and diverse data/timeframes?
It seems like the Gartley patterns are somewhat rare in that they require certain harmonics in their set-ups.
waveslider
Hi Waveslider,
Thanks for your post...
I think the patterns I posted are near Perfect Gartleys and they should reach at least the Pattern Completion Zones (PCZ) marked on the charts. So far with the given X5 (5-point) rules, they fit Gartley Bullish patterns.
Currently I am finishing 4th version of Auto-Gartley (X5) detection algorithm. Looks like writing Auto-Gartley algorithms has been my fascination for the past 4-5 years. Once I complete this current version, I'll implement the Automation with new TS 9.0 to test various instruments and time-frames. Every year I build new ideas to write Auto-Gartley and I write it from scratch thinking this is it
This year I may have a far better algorithm (that's what I thought Last year too At least now I have gathered knowledge the type of Gartleys (all 5-point patterns) work and when they fail and what are the pre-requisites etc. My current ABC Pattern detection/trading has been great and I am using that experience to build X5 patterns. ABC pattern is a critical part of all X5-patterns....I'll try to post more X5 patterns soon...
Regards,
Suri
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Here are Gartley Price Targets on SPY, SPX and INDU.
Regards,
Suri
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Not a story while trading, but it is related to trading business. During the 1997-1998 I started a very successful Financial Market Research/Analysis company automatically generating the full Market/Technical Analysis reports with charts, signals to retail and institutional clients. About the same time, internet was booming and of course any company with a .com was a hit, specially related to stock markets. So we were quite popular as we were fast upcoming .COM company with great technology and had great people/press behind us.
Within the first 3 months of launch, we reached our 1000 subscribed member, way before our goal of 1000 within a year. So, my team decided to send out a MileStone email to 1000 members thanking them. We had our own mail-server, web-hosting servers at the hosting company (Verio). In our excitement, I wrote the thank you/mile-stone email (ColdFusion based email) to send to all 1000 members individually looping through each email address from our Databases. What I did not realize that EACH of those 1000 members get 1000 emails (addressed to other 999 subscribers with name/email) from us because of an external loop in the code, which I forgot to delete/check. Once all of us confirmed the content and email, we pressed <GO> and started partying. We never realized our mistake until after an hour or so we started getting emails from subscribers cursing/hating us (instead of congratulating) for sending 1000 of emails with each client name/email listed. Imagine, how we got sober fast and how we spent another 6 hours writing sorry letters to each of the subscriber, this time one-at-a-time
Although this was a moment to remember and laugh at our (my) mistakes, we went onto build a great company.
So, my "Best Moment and the Worst Moment" came in the same hour.
Regards,
Suri
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rxs,
There are few books/articles addressed this particular topic.
I have posted a list of books/articles somewhere, but can't remember the site/URL.
Check out Dr. Ned Gandevani's book
"How to Become A Successful Trader" ..
There is a chapter dedicated to the topic.
Another good article in SFO magazine (few years ago)
titled "Why Can't I pull Trigger'....
Also, here is an excellent article by Price Headley
Conquer The 4 Fears Of Trading
Good Luck!
Regards,
Suri
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Hi adrien,
I have seen VAH or VAL equal to POC. As you said, I compute POC first and then the ValueArea (from the TPO distribution). I have never really seen POC outside of
the VAH or VAL.
Here I plotted just POC (Magenta) and VAH and VAL values (Black) on @ES.D.
Regards,
Suri
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Here are few International indexes charts with interesting chart patterns...
Most of these charts are small size (time-wise) but may be suggesting
"market top" patterns. Note underlying trend is still bullish.
Regards,
Suri
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alid file extensions: avi bmp doc eld gif jpe jpeg jpg mov mp3 mpg mq4 pac pdf pla png psd rar swf tpl txt wav wmv xls xlsx zip
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Hi Vishal,
Thanks for your post...
Here is Natural Gas Continuous Contract (Jan. 10) Chart
Regards,
Suri
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Does anyone know why after reloading Tradestation with the same set of indicators I had before, but now when I reload them it shows they are not verified and don't plot? I've tried reloading TS again but they still say they are not verified? I'm stumped :crap:Hi Neal51,
TS 8.6 Build 2612 has a bug when importing the ELDs from previous versions.
Pl. see this Bug Fixes in TS 8.6 Build: 2674.
https://www.tradestation.com/support/whats_new/build2674.aspx#fixes
See third item under Easylanguage section from TS.
Resolved an issue with the EL import wizard not verifying token files correctly causing .elds to fail when they work in previous TradeStation versions
Try installing TS 8.6 build 2674 or 2696 Builds, it should verify and work fine.
Regards,
Suri
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Hi Jay,
Thanks for your post. Yes, these are TradeStation charts.
TS does not support BSE Data directly, but you can import
3rd Party Data into TS. I get few International stocks and
indices data and import into TS.
Regards,
Suri
Suri,Could you please tell me if you created these charts in Tradestation? From what i understand TS does not support BSE data?
Thanks,
Jay.
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Gold's Parabolic Arc and Price/Time Targets...
Regards,
Suri
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Hello Suri sir ,Thanks for the chart .
Can we cosider this as bullish Reciprocal AB=CD pattern?? if yes what probable tgts you are looking for.
Regards,
TAQ
Hi TAQ,
Thanks for your post.
In the above chart posted there is only one ABC which is valid to trade.
See the following chart for ABC Bullish pattern Price/Time Targets.
kTrend is also solid Green.
Regards,
Suri
What Do You Do Video (funny)
in Market News & Analysis
Posted
Quantitative Easing Explained Video
Regards,
Suri