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Market Wizard
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Everything posted by zdo

  1. I'm gonna pull a crazyCzarina and reply to a long dead post ... One sure thing about trading forums - The great questions never get an answer. Ask even the greatest posters a great question... silence, no nothin’, not even crickets. First a few comments about Elliott Wave Wave Theory is a ‘science’ of socionomics. Socionomics is about how societal ideas ‘ideally’ or typically unfold - wave 1 is the early adapters, wave 3 is broad collective acceptance, wave 5 is continuing valuation narratives but with narrowing collective assessment of actual value... with all kinds of ‘ideal’ sub patterns... Socionomics starts with a simple observation: For lots of issues, how people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE. (Equally true = How people BEHAVE influences how they will FEEL... but that’s for another topic) Anyways... Elliott Wave theory is an attempt to apply socionomics to trading - and yes analyst75 “theory” is the key word. Imo, it’s a jump too far. First, price is not a good metric for socionomics.... especially across decades when currencies are being viciously 'corrupted'. And practically, socionomics does not transfer over to trading nearly to the degree Ellioticians would like. It simply does not deliver enough of those ‘ideal’ sub patterns because crowds of traders’ behaviors and ‘feelings’ about pricing are not sufficient equivalents of broader collective behaviors / socionomic waves... ESPECIALLY as time frames shorten... (ie waves may appear to ‘fractal’ down ... but they really don’t.) If you’re going to use EW to trade, probably the most important point you can acknowledge is that 5 wave patterns are EXCEPTIONS to normal trading crowd behavior ie the best thing a 5 wave pattern indicates is that corrective patterns will soon resume. I’ve described it differently in other posts* ... but basically, at any given point in time it is possible to reasonably project that ANY freakin wave ‘count’ / pattern will enfold. It is just as reasonable to project that a nice 5 wave completion will go on to a nice 7 or 11 or 17 or whatever wave count as it is to project that the market will now have a ‘trend’ change. At the end of any nice 3 wave corrective pattern, either projecting a huge 5 wave pattern unfolding in the other direction or projecting a long flat congestive pattern or another 3 wave correction pattern... or... all are equally reasonable. Or, a pretty wave 1, 2, and 3 doesn’t not mean a pretty wave 5 will unfold. Ie it’s just as reasonable to count it over and project that the next sequence will be corrective or a 5 wave impulsive move in the opposite direction. etc etc ... to get back to the unanswered question - So what do you propose as an alternate? Long ago I read Hurst. In a short section of his book he mentioned it. It didn’t sink in. Then one day it really hit me. There is no Elliott wave sequence or any other ‘technical’ price pattern that cannot be better explained via ‘summation of cycles’ ... * fun example can be seen by searching for 'trading chaos by bill williams' thread on t2w ... TL is so special we don't even allow links to other trading forums? ... other snarky EW comments at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/7555-do-you-use-the-elliott-wave-to-trade/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-146022
  2. Let me get this straight - if you’re ‘brownish’ from central america or the middle east or wherever, you can walk across the border unrestricted - ie without need of id, passport, visa, or vaccination(s) - and move directly onto the dole anywhere in the US you like BUT if you’re a little bit more than ‘brownish’ ie you’re fkn black like a Haitian you’ll be sent back ‘home’ without recourse... that’s not racist? That not biden’s kkk elbow rubbing days bleeding through? Just sayin’
  3. I used to take every June off from trading - to be with the family, travel, etc etc Dang, it’s freakn autumn... my June’s are getting longer and longer... just sayin’
  4. Wuhan MetroLine 2 https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2021/06/08/the-virus-speaks-an-exclusive-interview/ ... it was just sayin'
  5. As I have been saying for 16 months now... “lies going into the ‘plandemic’ and lies coming out” https://mises.org/wire/why-there-no-correlation-between-masks-lockdowns-and-covid-suppression very briefly, all gov’t/media narratives about the ‘source’ of the ‘virus’ infectivity and infection rates morbidity testing lockdowns masks social distancing the ‘vaccines’ variants are FALSE. Act accordingly. just sayin’
  6. the media https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2021/04/16/the-unanimous-news-conforms/
  7. "money" ... just sayin "This is not what economists and central bankers theorized ..."(or is it? ) https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-04-21/how-easy-money-destroying-civil-liberties
  8. are you in the Covidian Cult ? ..." this covers the six conditions of mind control from the book Cults in Our Midst, https://consentfactory.org/2021/04/21/the-covidian-cult-part-ii/
  9. covid illustrates 'the extraordinary madness of crowds' and that young people are more skeered of covid than older people is a sign of effective psyops ... just sayin' https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-04-11-5-dumbest-things-americans-doing-more-susceptible-covid19-mutations.html
  10. Health security is the new nom de plume of social management. Medical tyranny is how it actually works out. Hope you all don't go along with it... I'm just sayin' meanwhile ... Anyone who criticizes coronavirus vaccines FIVE times will be banned from Twitter... In Biden’s America, putting coronavirus-positive illegal immigrants on bus trips across America is perfectly fine, but ripping off your mask is “Neanderthal thinking.” ... “ The only real vaccine against ‘Covid-19’ is turning off the TV.” ... https://www.aier.org/article/another-covid-myth-dies-the-death/
  11. As I have been just sayin’ for 16 months now ... “lies going into this crisis, lies coming out ...” https://summit.news/2021/03/11/video-fauci-admits-there-is-no-science-behind-continued-lockdown/ https://summit.news/2021/03/11/stanford-medical-professor-lockdowns-worst-public-health-mistake-in-last-100-years/
  12. Random Hypoc risy “A Gallup poll released in August reported that 81% of black respondents wanted the police presence in their community to remain the same or increase, while only 19% wanted it reduced...” This little misunderstanding and a symbolic incident ( ie George Floyd grhs ... where we’ll never know what was going on btwn those two but looked a lot like a druggy ‘suicide by cop’) has only cost cities and citizens billions in property and income loss from riots peaceful protests by paid organized misfits / frontline useful idiots... and scores of local and national politicians yell defund the police / fund the community organizers with tax payer money Hypoc = until the peaceful protests come to their neighborhood or offices then they scream for help from the police, sht then they yell for the ‘national guard’ The Los Angeles teachers union (known as UTLA) has been fanatical about how unsafe it is to return to in-person instruction due to Covid-19. Hypoc = the Facebook group for members of UTLA: “Friendly reminder: If you are planning any trips for Spring Break, please keep that off of Social Media. It is hard to argue that it is unsafe for in-person instruction, if parents and the public see vacation photos and international travel.” https://mises.org/wire/why-green-new-deal-more-expensive-joe-biden-realizes Hypoc = ‘Joe Biden’ (not the guy, the bunch pulling his strings) does realize how ‘expensive’ and misappropriating of resources the green new deal will be ... and, despite the talking claims, they know full well it won’t do anything substantial to reduce social inequality and environmental injustice ... I’m just sayin’
  13. Let’s inspire some confidence in the good ole USA folks... the elite billionaires and their minions are driving central bank / monetary explosion and debt policies that have never ever succeeded anywhere else except in zimbobway, venuswala, and bra sil, the progressive ‘left’ is driving cultural degradation and cooperating with the elite to gut the middle class and main street, the deep state neocons are driving foreign policies that are designed for new and more forever war (thanks ‘trump’ for putting the brakes on that for a few short years, btw), the president is a pay for play puppet who doesn’t even know what he’s signing half the time, the propaganda machine continues to pump out lies after lies instead of truths after truths about the plandemic (please show me the research where this virus has actually been isolated, please show me the real science behind lockdowns and masks, please show me the testing on the ‘vaccine’ which really isn’t a vaccine - o you are currently in the initial test group ... and you think you're 'following' the science?), the economy, the right, race relations, immigration, the state of 'cities' , etc, etc just sayin' ... break is over... back to the trade station... have a great weekend all
  14. The nasty truth about the mRna ‘vaccines’ / gene ‘therapy’ - if someone’s immune system is fktup, injecting strands of ‘this’ spliced/glued to the coronas of ‘that’ will not trigger the body to build an immunity to that corona or anything else... why do I bring this up? ... these jabs are completely unnecessary - but they are going to use the jab (initially) as the basis for 'health passports'... something all the young people will look back on and say "omg why did we eat that up .. hook line and sinker?" ...just sayin'
  15. Your choice Wear triple masks forever - because they have the “potential to slow the spread of COVID-19” [CDC] OR Rip the masks off - because in a study just released by [CDC] “mask mandates were associated with an average 1.32% decrease in the growth rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths”. 1.32% means masks did more harm than good ( plus ... considering that every fkn death was counted ‘covid’ instead of flu and pneumonia and just plain ole dyin’ old for months and months and months (and still is - higher billables) - even that 1.32% is high bullsht) ... just sayin
  16. Amazon censored Clarence Thomas PBS documentary during Black History Month… you don’t count as “black” unless you’re a member of the cult The ongoing cancel culture uses authoritarian tactics to deny others an equal playing field. Cancel culture does not inspire equality; instead, it creates the foundation for racism and discrimination to take hold. The cancel culture’s idea of “inclusiveness” and “equality” is achieved through force, social ostracization and censorship and is therefore nothing more than thought control and tyranny. Instead of relying on open debate and persuasion, they leverage manipulation and shaming tactics to build and control their cult. Whether they are telling whites to be more black, or calling on whites to repent their white privilege, or censoring anyone, even blacks, who have ‘conservative’ principles, the cancel culture cult wants to humiliate and control anyone they can - ideologically, behaviorally, and mentally. It’s all ultimately very damaging to the culture, to civil discourse, and to healthy human connections and relationships ... just sayin’
  17. crazyCza and crazyZdo always love a fresh new thread ... from 2013 78% losers, 19% survivors, 3% thrivers - the cusps ... Generally speaking, most people who begin to “learn” to trade quickly experience that losses and mistakes seem to have a nasty tendency to be disproportionately way more costly than wins and being right are beneficial. There are so many other endeavors where that does not seem to be the case... so they move on. Few persist in their “learning” to pass the cusp where they can turn that (accurate for some systems, inaccurate for others) enigmatic impression and their performance to neutral / surviving ... and then even fewer persist ‘again’ even more assiduously to turn wins and being right to being disproportionately more profitable than the losses and mistakes are costly... Furthermore, most people don’t believe or see the necessity to ”learn” just as much about themselves as they do about objective trading methods, etc. Most never realize that doing a ‘dual major’ in Self and Methods is required to get a good trading education and "learn" to trade. ... and, many who do realize the need still flunk out of one of the majors and never “learn” to trade. Only a few persist in and complete both ‘majors’ ...
  18. https://pjmedia.com/columns/john-stossel/2021/03/03/mike-rowe-everyone-is-essential-n1429583 “If everything we do saves just one life, I’ll be happy.” is a little example of the narrative being on completely out of phase with reality. Cuomo, instead of saving lives, cost lives, caused needless suffering and loss. The whole plandemic is a prime example of the narrative being on completely out of phase with reality. ... just sayin'
  19. The C1984 numbers (cases, hospitalisations, deaths, ...whatever). are going down sharply everywhere. Here’s a health security narrative (ie the narrative you select from the narratives passed out by the administrative\media machine) - The vaccine fixed it. Is that one yours? That’s not ‘your’ narrative? Then maybe ‘your’ narrative (ie the narrative you select from the narratives passed out by the administrative\media machine. ) is - The lockdowns finally worked / are finally working. Is that one yours? Shucks. That’s not ‘your’ narrative either? Then, maybe ‘your’ narrative (ie the narrative you select from the narratives passed out by the administrative\media machine. Is that one yours?)) is - The masks. In many public places, 99% of the peeps are masked up. Did the vaccine ‘fix’ it? NO. The numbers were plummeting before the vaccines gene therapies rolled out. Did the lockdowns ‘fix’ it? NO. Bottom line, the numbers plunged where there were lockdowns, but they also plunged where there had never been any lockdowns. Did the masks ‘fix’ it? NO. (See post just above) Studies have repeatedly shown that masks do not significantly reduce transmission of viruses, so it’s safe to assume that a mask will in fact fail in this regard. We now know that asymptomatic individuals — even if they test positive using a PCR test — are highly unlikely to be contagious. There must be a contagious person around, and they must be sufficiently close for transmission to occur. If that happens you’re ‘exposed’ no matter how good or how many masks you have on. As for masking up when you’re healthy, let alone double, triple or quadruple masking, there’s simply no scientific consensus for that strategy. So what is making those numbers plummet from mid January forward? Was it the fact that all viruses run their course? Yes , little bit. But the real reason ----- All this sht goes deeper than just good political timing... The ruling elite appropriates the available means at its disposal to effect its plans, including available ideologies, panics, etc etc. Believing falsehoods always eventually has a significant cost... just sayin'
  20. "The key, if not central, rationale for non-pharmaceutical interventions such as staying at home [aka lockdowns], masking, and distancing is allegedly significant transmission from people who don’t show symptoms.” The model says home is where transmission occurs, so make a policy to lock them down, make them stay home. But, the model is just a model. It doesn’t hold up! In meta-analysis of findings across 54 studies of in home transmission, symptomatic cases had an 18% attack rate within the household. In other words, most people who contract COVID-19 at home were infected by someone in the home who was visibly ill. To me, even that 18% is not a valid basis for lockdown and other NPI policies. But the real significant clincher = The analysis finds that asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases account for just 0.7% of transmissions. If the contagiousness of people without symptoms is not what drives the spread of SARS-COV-2, then no policy restrictions on public life besides staying home when you are clearly sick could be justified - especially when considering the obvious negative consequences of these policy restrictions to societies which vastly outweigh any possible benefits. It’s time solid data from real-world transmission studies, not models, be used to form policy ... even if they don’t support existing manufactured / ‘consensus’ narratives... even if means reversing or dropping the onerous policy restrictions put on humans over the past 11 months ...and still continues to this day. Actually, it’s way past time to vaporize ‘policy’. Gov’ts have no business ‘fighting’ viruses... because, , rather than really fight the virus, govt will always use the policy / power to further its own ends. If you believe Sir Simon Stevens, Fauci, and all their counterparts and underlings are itching to give up control of your face and movements, think again... Actually Actually - at the level of you, it’s way past time to ignore all those policies...
  21. yes, SalesForce, CNN, cancel culture, etc etc , I do question the validity and integrity of the election ... just sayin’ it was ok way back when for anyone to say trump was an illegitimate president ... and now it's completely ok for anyone to say that xiden is illegitimate... "not my president" ... not that trump deserved to win ... or that he would MAGA ... or drain the swamp... or ... ... just sayin’ he would have been a tiny bit preferable to xiden
  22. Defy the narrative! Defy the gov’ts! Defy the bought ‘experts’! Defy the media and propaganda! Defy the collective hypnosis! Some expert some where said. “...But it's too soon to say how seasonality and our immune systems interact in the case of COVID-19.” NO! No IT’S NOT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You have WAY WAY more control over the ‘spread’ of C1984, or any virus, through taking responsibility for your own cellular health than any gov’t nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs such as mask mandates, curfews, capacity restrictions, gathering restrictions) ever EVER had or will ever have. ... just skim these charts https://mises.org/wire/almost-year-later-theres-still-no-evidence-showing-governments-can-control-spread-covid-19 Here's another great link assessing the 'risks' ... something traders need to be pretty good at, btw... https://www.aier.org/article/why-i-believe-that-covid-derangement-syndrome-is-real/
  23. ... bubble symmetry to manifest or “this time it really is different” ?
  24. Supposedly, the US just passed 500,000 deaths from covid1984. I call bullshit. It’s more likely around 30,000 pure covid deaths ... over two winters - that’s about 15,000 a year. I will still light a candle. The candle is for all the billions of people who believe the narrative that lockdowns are public health measures to reduce the spread of a virus. Lockdowns are political instruments. The candle I light is for all the billions of people who got ‘feared’ into setting their own lives back - way back... just sayin
  25. Narrative: Stay real calm. There will be no hyperinflation. Look at our numbers. There is not even any significant price inflation.* Don't let anything threaten your confidence in the system. Reality: If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever 'printed', over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone. In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and late 00's). Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. ... just sayin ... *(except maybe at the grocery store, your power bill, construction materials, etc etc etc)
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