[tradersedge]

Originally Posted by TimRacette »

Makes sense MM, that's just what I do, allows me to take the setups that I see carefree. Been profitable month over month for the past few years so far.

So do you track your performance? If so, could you post some statistics on what you achieve? I would be interested in net gain, profit factor and draw-down. I can get a good sense of just about any approach just by net gain vs. draw-down. What I have found is that profitable traders are usually in a very well defined range of performance. In other words the market has an effective inefficiency and once that is tapped into most traders see that "edge".

[TimRacette]

Ya, my first targets on the ES (+2 ticks) has an 86.7% achievement rate at which point my stop moves to -4. This reduces my risk down from -6 to -2 per contract (I start with a 6 tick stop). From there my target is either +10 or in most cases, the 15-min target from where I entered.

This keeps my reward/risk ratio greater than 1:1 with the bulk of my stop outs being limited risk. The real value of the strategy comes on the euro 6E futures where I use a -8 pip stop and at +4 move the stop to -4. Since the euro's range is much wider than the ES I can get to break even and then manage the trade for 30, 50 or sometimes even 100+ pips by trailing my stop.

[tradersedge]

Originally Posted by TimRacette »

Ya, my first targets on the ES (+2 ticks) has an 86.7% achievement rate at which point my stop moves to -4. This reduces my risk down from -6 to -2 per contract (I start with a 6 tick stop). From there my target is either +10 or in most cases, the 15-min target from where I entered.

This keeps my reward/risk ratio greater than 1:1 with the bulk of my stop outs being limited risk. The real value of the strategy comes on the euro 6E futures where I use a -8 pip stop and at +4 move the stop to -4. Since the euro's range is much wider than the ES I can get to break even and then manage the trade for 30, 50 or sometimes even 100+ pips by trailing my stop.

Do you have any deeper statistics than the starting 86.7% stat? That is what I was wondering about, but for the targets as well. I'm trying to get a sense for how well people are able to handle the risk / reward and what they consider a real good trading approach. I'll give an example:
Gross Profit: $86,000
Gross Loss: $61,000
Profit factor: 1.4 (86,000 / 61,000)
Percent Profitable: 47%
Drawdown: $4000
This means from any new profit peak, the most I went down again was $4000. Overall 1.4 is my "edge". Below 1 is a losing system. Percent profitable is really not very important, what matters is how much on average you get in gains vs. losses. Or put another way, take the net profit, $86000 - $61000 = $25,000 / drawdown = 25000 / 4000 = 6.25 is my reward / risk factor. Anything above 3 is good.

[TimRacette]

I just converted over to StockTickr for uploading all my trades and am really liking that functionality. I will get back to you when I have more data dumped from Infinity, so far I have September's trades and some of August.

[wskeal]

Hi, TimRacette. Can you tell me what do you mean -23% profit target. Do you mean 123% of swing, or you mean 23% IN swing? If 123% then risk:reward ratio is better than 1:1, but if you mean 23% of swing then risk:reward ratio is smaller than 1:1.

I testing this system right now and i can't say that market really respect 50% level, sometimes it bounce 61,8% much better.

Which timeframe or tickchart you use to draw fibs at ES and 6E?

Sorry for my english)

Thanks)

[TimRacette]

Hi wskeal, in my charting platform I have the 50, 61.8 and -23 % lines enabled. The -23 is also the same as a 123% on some charts. Either way it's 23% past the highs or lows in the direction of your trade.

As for the tick chart, I use a 512t to trade the ES and what that means as compared to a time based chart is 512 ticks will complete to form 1 bar. Today is a poor example of 50% retracements due to the wedge that we seem to be in on the larger 15-min time frame. Nonetheless with a structured set of rules, criteria for entry, and scale out methods I find them to be very profitable for my own trading.