Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Rande Howell

Training the Brain to Manage Fear

Recommended Posts

The mindset that you brought into trading is rarely rooted in the psychology that will produce success in trading. If you hesitate in attempting to pull the trigger, or experience a fear and impulse roller coaster ride when you are in a trade attempting to manage it, you have experienced this first-hand. Many people come into trading with a psychology of self that produced success in other domains of their lives. By sheer drive or by patient accumulation of capital over time, people enter trading with preconceived notions of how to produce success. They believe, “My work ethic worked in the past, why not in trading?”

 

The Journey of Understanding Fear

 

After a number of years committed to learning how to trade, the vast majority of traders still perform inconsistently and have come nowhere close to managing the fears that manifest in trading. The old ways of managing fear, so useful in their former careers, simply do not work in the uncertainty of trading. Trading with an attitude of “you can conquer the world” is not going to help you win at trading. Developing an attitude of winning in trading is very different from winning in most other endeavors. It’s not external. Instead, you have to conquer yourself, and out of this comes the internal kind of confidence necessary for successful trading. This is a very different kind of confidence. Trading confidence is rooted in being comfortable in managing ambiguity rather than certainty.

 

The psychology that most new traders bring into trading was built to create certainty and then act accordingly. In trading, the opposite is true. The trader is always in the midst of uncertainty and the ambiguity that springs from never working with a “sure thing”. This powerful bias toward certainty is wired into the very fiber of our biology. Humans evolved with an environmental pressure to survive in a dangerous and threatening world. And our success as a species is in part due to our capacity to spot danger at a distance and avoid it. Humans became wired to seek certainty and avoid uncertainty. And as humans became psychological, we developed beliefs that shaped our perception rooted in avoiding uncertainty and desiring certainty. A mindset focused on trading not-to-lose-money-again is the way this bias shows up in the ambiguity found in trading.

 

Re-enforced by family and culture, our perception became shaped to avoid uncertainty (threat) or attack the object of danger. This trait of coupling uncertainty with fear is truly exposed in trading. In most of the areas of our lives, the relationship between uncertainty, ambiguity, worry, and fear are not so straightforward and immediate so we do not have to adapt to this world view. This allows us to remain in an illusion of control. Occasionally something does crash into our carefully “certaintized” world (but they are rare if you live in a developed country).

 

In trading the linkage between uncertainty, ambiguity, worry, and fear is ever present and is inescapable. This is the problem that has to be solved to become a consistent trader. Uncertainty and ambiguity have to be de-coupled from worry and fear. And a trader has to develop a mindset that allows him to work with the ambiguity of uncertainty. It will not be the mindset that you brought into trading. It is a mindset that has to be developed as the old mindset is deconstructed.

 

Toward a Probability-Based State of Mind

 

The state of mind that you bring to the rigors of trading is going to determine the probability of your success in trading. The standard, historical mindset that humans have developed over many years is that of fear and avoidance. And most traders, in their mindlessness, bring this historical fear-based mindset into their trading without ever having the skills to observe and change it. As long as this is not changed, fear will build and maintain a belief system that will avoid threat or psychological discomfort. With a fear based mindset, it does not matter that probability (your methodology) is on your side.

 

Fear will never allow you to move out of reactive avoidance patterns without reconstructing the beliefs that lie behind the fear. This is why, by themselves, affirmations, visualizations, guided meditations, and NLP do not work to create long term change. Belief structures in the brain and the emergent mind are highly resistant to change. Failed diets and failed surface-change solutions clutter a person’s library as a result.

 

The bottom line is that the beliefs that we bring to trading are rarely the beliefs that can produce success in trading. Until uncertainty has been decoupled from fear and worry, a trader is not going to be able to produce a probability-based mindset that is needed in trading. Add to this the reality that the vast majority of traders lose money and transfer their capital to traders who have been able to build or inherit a disciplined and impartial mindset.

 

By our nature, we evolve as we adapt our belief system to the challenges of the world or we resist evolving due to our nature to produce certainty. This is what biological systems, whether conscious or not, do in their dance with the world of uncertainty that we are immersed in. We develop "fears" that allow us to avoid the ambiguity of the uncertainty of change. These fears were in response to the threat that uncertainty held for survival. And at one time in our not-so-distant past, uncertainty and fear were glued together as part of our survival.

 

It is the management of this ambiguity that must be faced head on in trading. The distant past must be brought into the here and now of trading. In un-tethering uncertainty from fear, you open the door to the reorganization of the self in a purposeful direction. In this sense, trading becomes the laboratory of the design of self-fulfilling beliefs about the self and the world that we are part of. When we learn to face our fears from a position of calm assertiveness and can think in terms of probability, trading becomes much easier. We are no longer living in our histories, but are creating our futures.

 

In mindfully developing a state of mind designed to deal effectively with probability, we become intentional about the mindset that we bring to the uncertainty and ambiguity of trading. There is no threat to biological life at stake – fear and worry are no longer necessary for processing information. With training, a probability mindset delivers the disciplined, impartial, patient, and courageous state of mind needed to engage the uncertainty of not knowing “for sure” and a trader’s methodology truly gives him the edge he needs in the management of risk – not threat. This is a state of mind that the trader builds – he does not find it. It is not “out there”. It exists as a possibility within each trader; but they have to become intentional in developing it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 26th April 2024. Alphabet Easily Beat Earnings Predictions But Focus Shifts to Today’s PCE Data. Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings reports beat expectations pushing the NASDAQ to the top of the charts. The Bank of Japan keep interest rates unchanged applying pressure on the Japanese Yen. The Yen Index declines 0.36% and is down 40% against the USD over the past 5 years. The US GDP growth rate falls below its 2.5% expectations, reading 1.6%, but economists advise the Fed may only cut once in 2024! The market turns its attention to the Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. USA100 – Alphabet Easily Beat Analysts’ Earnings Predictions and Sees its P/E Ratio Fall! The price of the NASDAQ ended the day higher and rose to a slightly higher high. As a result, the index is close to forming a traditional bullish trend and making Wednesday’s decline a retracement or medium-term correction. In terms technical analysis, indicators are mainly indicating a reverting price condition where the asset cannot maintain longer term momentum. However, momentum indications provide a slight bullish bias. The upward price movement is being driven by earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet which beat earnings expectations. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ while Alphabet is the third most influential. Alphabet’s earnings beat expectations by 21.61% and revenue rose more than $6 billion. As a result, the price of the stock rose 11.56% after market close. Furthermore, Microsoft’s Earnings Per Share beat Wall Street’s expectations by 3.40% and revenue by 1.50%. The stock rose by 4.30% after market close and is close to trading at the all-time high. However, investors should note that from the “magnificent 7”, Alphabet and Meta have the lowest Price to Earnings ratio. Meaning these stocks are the most likely to be trading below their intrinsic value. However, investors should note that negatives for the stock market in general remain. This also supports the bias shown by technical analysis. The GDP growth rate fell considerably below expectations while inflation data continues to show signs of rising prices. Investors will closely be monitoring today’s Core PCE Price Index which is the most watched index by the Federal Reserve. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index reads more than 0.3%, a rate cut will become unlikely making stocks less attractive. Whereas, if the PCE Price Index is not as high as expectations, Bond Yields will likely decline, as will the US Dollar and a rate cut will be put back on the table. As a result, investors may look to take advantage of the strong earnings and continue purchasing stocks. USDJPY – BOJ Hold Interest Rates Unchanged! The price of the USDJPY exchange rate again rose to an all-time recent high after increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Trend and momentum-based indicators point towards a higher price. However, the exchange rate is trading within the overbought range of most oscillators and is also showing a divergence pattern. Both are known to indicate a decline, but not necessarily a complete change of trend. The Bank of Japan’s statement from earlier this morning was largely “dovish” and gave no clear indication that the central bank wishes to keep rising interest rates. However, shortly the Governor will answer questions from journalists and may give a more hawkish tone. Either way, investors are mainly concentrating on if the Federal Government will again opt to intervene within the currency market. Most economists believe the intervention will only come if the USD continues to rise and it will not be before the Core PCE Price Index. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • 📁 Population in 2100, as projected by UN Population Division.   🇮🇳 India: 1,533 million 🇨🇳 China: 771 million 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 546 million 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 487 million 🇨🇩 Congo: 431 million 🇺🇸 US: 394 million 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: 323 million 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 297 million 🇹🇿 Tanzania: 244 million 🇪🇬 Egypt: 205 million 🇧🇷 Brazil: 185 million 🇵🇭 Philippines: 180 million 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 177 million 🇳🇪 Niger: 166 million 🇸🇩 Sudan: 142 million 🇦🇴 Angola: 133 million 🇺🇬 Uganda: 132 million 🇲🇽 Mexico: 116 million 🇰🇪 Kenya: 113 million 🇷🇺 Russia: 112 million 🇮🇶 Iraq: 111 million 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: 110 million   @FinancialWorldUpdates Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • “If the West finds itself falling behind in AI, it won’t be due to a lack of technological prowess or resources. It won’t be because we weren’t smart enough or didn’t move fast enough. It will be because of something many of our Eastern counterparts don’t share with us: fear of AI.   The root of the West's fear of AI can no doubt be traced back to decades of Hollywood movies and books that have consistently depicted AI as a threat to humanity. From the iconic "Terminator" franchise to the more recent "Ex Machina," we have been conditioned to view AI as an adversary, a force that will ultimately turn against us.   In contrast, Eastern cultures have a WAY different attitude towards AI. As UN AI Advisor Neil Sahota points out, "In Eastern culture, movies, and books, they've always seen AI and robots as helpers and assistants, as a tool to be used to further the benefit of humans."   This positive outlook on AI has allowed countries like Japan, South Korea, and China to forge ahead with AI development, including in areas like healthcare, where AI is being used to improve the quality of services.   The West's fear of AI is not only shaping public opinion but also influencing policy decisions and regulatory frameworks. The European Union, for example, recently introduced AI legislation prioritizing heavy-handed protection over supporting innovation.   While such measures might be well-intentioned, they risk stifling AI development and innovation, making it harder for Western companies and researchers to compete.   Among the nations leading common-sense AI regulation, one stands out for now: Singapore.” – Chris C Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • $NFLX Netflix stock hold at 556.59 support or breakdown?  https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • $RDNT Radnet stock flat top breakout watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?RDNT
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.