[MidKnight]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

2) when you trade breakouts, it is a very high probability approach (most do not believe this, but when you pick your spots correctly, you will win most of the time)

Good post man. I just want to comment that absolutely any approach is high probability if you pick the correct spots. For example, when I review a chart in hindsight and glance over it quickly, I'm at a 100% win rate for the day because my speed reading a hindsight chart only picked the correct spots Sadly, in real-time though, I do not pick the correct spots as well...

With kind regards,
MK

[HAL9000]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Also, we do add to our position when a strong move gets underway, so while the initial position may be $2/tick, we may have $10/tick on the table by the time that trade is stopped or the profit target(s) are reached.

Hi Thales,

I have simulated a lot during the last weeks,
and I don't know, if I am confident within myself now, or not, I guess I am now, but ...

Anyway, well I started to look at forex now (larger commission with smallest lots than using futures, but more freedom to move with a small account (IB (ECN like)).

I went live again Friday, but just as a starter, I hope Monday will be day 1.

My question is, how do you scale in (2$ up to 10$)?

But I guess, you like to ask me, how I would do it!?
So maybe, I can try to explain this in theory soon,
and maybe in real later!

But if you like like to explain this first?


Regards,

Hal

[HAL9000]

Originally Posted by MidKnight »

I'm at a 100% win rate for the day because my speed reading a hindsight chart only picked the correct spots
With kind regards,
MK

Hi MidKnight,

my problem is, that I can trade nearly any bar on any of my charts in hindsight and in real.
Too many signals, some telling a different story,
but, if I just would do, what my charts are telling me ...

Anyway, its about discipline and precision, well and experience too. IMO.


Correct?

Hal

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by MidKnight »

Good post man. I just want to comment that absolutely any approach is high probability if you pick the correct spots. For example, when I review a chart in hindsight and glance over it quickly, I'm at a 100% win rate for the day because my speed reading a hindsight chart only picked the correct spots Sadly, in real-time though, I do not pick the correct spots as well...

There are many profitable approaches which, if followed correctly, still yield a less than 50% win rate yet yield a decent enough profit factor to trade that approach. In other words, there are approaches where the trade could pick his or spots correctly, and nonetheless win only 38% of the trades, but, because the average winner is 3.5 times as large as the average loser, the method is extremely profitable. Do not mstake picking your entries correctly with winning trades. You can still enter correctly and lose. Perhaps Kiwi or one of our other friends experienced with systems auto-trading could explain my thoughts on this better than I.

As far as breakout trades, Linda Raschke once wrote that "[t]hough most breakout methods have a high initial risk point, their high win/loss ratio makes them easier to trade psychologically." I agree with her that trading breakouts has a high win to loss ratio. She also said that "[y]ou might get your teeth kicked in on the losers, but, fortunately, big losses do not happen very often." That is also true. I would add, however, that it is possible to trade breakouts in such a way as to cut your losses before one gets to the bloody "teeth kicked in" level.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Quite a bit of movement already, and we haven't even gotten to Tokyo yet.

Now what do you do?

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi Folks,

Quite a bit of movement already, and we haven't even gotten to Tokyo yet.

Now what do you do?

Best Wishes,

Thales

You'd expect to see this kind of per bar range on a 15 minute or even a 60 minute chart. Here is the current 1 minute.

Best Wishes,

Thales,

[thalestrader]

Was this a good short entry? We shall see, we shall see.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Was this a good short entry? We shall see, we shall see.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Not too bad, so far.

Best Wishes,

Thales