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tupapa

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I will start posting my pre-market and post market analysis here, I am currently trading the Bund but might also trade other instruments in the future.

 

Feel free to comment or discuss any trades, and any feedback will be appreciated!

 

So first of all here is a preliminary version of my trading plan. This is a very crude version of how I am trading and subjected to constant reviewing and improvement:

 

I trade only of support and resistance found from at least two larger timeframe charts, the daily is used to obtain major levels and the 10k Volume and 5k Volume chart is used to find smaller levels.

 

Entries:

 

I define a succesful test/Rejection as:

 

1- A double bottom/top on the 1m chart.

2- A HL/LH on the 1m chart.

 

I define a fakeout as:

 

1- Price beakouts through a level with apparent strenght, but is pushed back into the range rapidly, the bars are long and fast.

2- Price tries once again to move in the direction of the breakout, but it is slow and the bars are much smaller, resulting in a LH/HL

 

I define a successful retracement after a breakout as:

 

1- Price breaks through a level, and instead of being pushed back into the range, it retraces slowly, the bars are short and price sits there.

2- Price might range above the level for some time before the move.

 

Trade Entry:

 

-In the cases in which the above conditions are met, I will enter the trade 1 tick below/above the previous bar, in the direction of the trend, I let price come to me

 

Trade management:

 

1- First exit is the stop loss.

2- When price starts moving, I wait for a retracement and draw a D/S line.

3- The first lot is exited at the break of the line, once this happens I move the top for my second lot to breakeven.

4- The second lot is closed when price makes a LH or HL or breaks the LSH/LSL, whatever happens first.

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My plan for the bund tomorrow is trading of the following labels marked on the 10K Chart, I will only trade of support and resistance.

 

So i will look to go long at support if price fakeouts or tests the following levels:

 

Support:

 

139.66

139.5

139.38

139.25

139.12

139.02

 

I will go short if price fakeouts or tests the following levels:

 

Resistance:

139.88

139.95

140.26

140.44

5aa71142deae2_19-010kVOL.thumb.JPG.4c18ea95bf0cebf10d3222302e0b46e1.JPG

5aa71142e638d_Bund5k20-09.thumb.JPG.baa70af79365a7993bcbe09c97a36c76.JPG

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I define a fakeout as:

 

1- Price beakouts through a level with apparent strenght, but is pushed back into the range rapidly, the bars are long and fast.

2- Price tries once again to move in the direction of the breakout, but it is slow and the bars are much smaller, resulting in a LH/HL

 

 

Trade Entry:

 

-In the cases in which the above conditions are met, I will enter the trade 1 tick below/above the previous bar, in the direction of the trend, I let price come to me

.

 

Hi,

 

Do you mean to initiate a long if the BO was long and then price falls back in the range and then slowly BO to the upside? It's a fake out, but in which direction are you anticipating the move to be? Or is this just to remind you it's a fake-out and to stay out of it?

 

Gringo

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Sorry, I didn't make myself clear as I interpret a takeout as a reversal pattern. For instance if price is approaching resistance and moves above the level with ease, but suddenly the sellers come in pushing price below resistance (wide range and rapidly). Then buyers try to push price above resistance but the bars are short and they struggle, resulting in a Lower High.

 

That is when I enter the short, same thing for a long at support.

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Observations:

 

1- Price started of ranging above and below yesterdays high, showing strong indecision and I was trying to short it, pre-empting the breakout because I had a short bias. There's to things I can learn from today, first loose the bias and second, stay away of trading ranges, as soon as I spot one, exit my position and let it develop.

 

2- Wide range bars are very dangerous and I should avoid them as they lead to spikes and my stop getting hit, I should wait until there is clear weakness or strenght from the part of bulls or bears.

 

3- When price dropped below support, there was no hesitation and price wasn't jittery. Instead price ranged for some time and it felt almost as if “someone” was holding it. After this it made a double bottom, then a Higher Low and started moving up, into the range, this is a good opportunity for a long trade.

 

 

Some snapshots of today's trading, I didn't take these trades but I thought it would be useful to annotate them on the chart.

 

My only goal for tomorrow is to be more disciplined and trade only at S/R levels plotted in advance.

5aa71143f0cb8_20-09morninglog.thumb.JPG.11c1b1a4ddaea784db83dece71fa23f9.JPG

5aa711440410d_20-09Logsecondhalf.thumb.jpg.4996d9da0b668e5a34c9725784f72b0e.jpg

5aa711440b2bb_20-09LogThirdhalf.thumb.jpg.494c0219c3a885276e296aec130e6d82.jpg

5aa7114412d1a_21-09Levels.thumb.jpg.db3cf53b0ae632a05cb83ae50feacec4.jpg

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Today was another range day with not many opportunities. The best opportunities, using the S/R levels I uploaded yesterday where:

 

2- Short at 92, when price can't break through R.

 

5- Short when price breaks below R and can't get back above it, a short of that double top at 98 would've been preferable but I didn't have a level anywhere near there, so I can't justify this.

 

6- Price breaks important support at 66 and loads of volume goes through, however, it doesn't feel jittery, like yesterday, it feels as if someone is holding it, buying everything thats on sale, price then makes a double bottom, a HL and trends for the rest of the afternoon, all the way above R.

 

8- If one didn't buy at 6, a buy at the breakout at point 8 could be good, however, I am not that experienced with breakouts and I'm still working on how to trade them.

 

9- That double top is a classic whyckoff example of climactic selling followed by a lower vol re-test. Again, I didn't have a level here but maybe I should include this as a must-take set-up, regardless of if I have a level or not. If one didn't sell here, selling weakness at 11 could be another option.

 

The levels today again pointed towards the best opportunities. With some many gaps recently I find it hard to plot accurate levels, I need to study plotting S/R in further detail.

5aa711448395e_Bundmorning.thumb.jpg.e50946ae12e958236f49521c2feacaf1.jpg

5aa711448b5bc_bundafternoon21-09.thumb.JPG.730a0a0d2efe28e79cc03774ef3dc612.JPG

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Yesterday the Bund made new highs, auctioned above the critical 30 and 40 Resistance level and it stayed inside its trade channel.

 

The best opportunities using S/R levels where the short of R at 07:40 and the long of support at 95.

 

My worst trades where taken at Breakouts as I still struggle with entry timing and identifying a legit pullback.

 

Yesterday was a proof of how important is it to stand aside when things aren't clear, such as price ranging above or below a level. In these cases, it is best to stand aside and let for a clear direction to develop.

5aa7114698324_bund24-09morning.thumb.JPG.3abe7f6444aff7a68394523da064d9cf.JPG

5aa711469ff31_24-09bundafternoon.thumb.jpg.183152d67f6bce5b531c09fdd4ef78a9.jpg

5aa71146a6577_Bund24-09levels.JPG.e131b092dcf8b6d42dec21d77b116582.JPG

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Today has been difficult for me so far.. Price broke Resistance at 61 and I thought it could trend since there is little resistance above this level, however, sellers came in at 73 pushing price down.

 

During the last hour price has been ranging between 52 and 64.

5aa71146aa33e_25-09sofar.JPG.7bc013e0ecceb72dac3875a05ee89945.JPG

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Today's trading so far, The biggest regret is not taking the long 10:18, as price found S at the previous range midpoint, that represents a lot of volume.

 

Something else I noticed in hindsight was I didn't exit my long at 84, although there is so much vol at 93, a pre-defined Resistance.

 

Regarding yesterdays trading, my biggest mistake was not perceiving the trading between 10:00 and 11:00 as a rejection and LH, instead I was stubborn looking for a pullback, it shows how flexible one needs to be.

5aa7114a796ea_28-09Morning.thumb.jpg.b513cd38233d9c93a671038eb58dc2b7.jpg

5aa7114a8184c_27-09morning.thumb.jpg.fb1da5702e4d80789594190f9aa775d3.jpg

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A much better afternoon from my part with more clear opportunities.

 

My biggest error was because I got stoped out at 73, and then jumping into a trade at 82 because I was to pissed of to buy Support at the time at 84.

 

Another important error was not holding to my short at 88 for longer (second lot), need to have more trust in myself, place the stop above AR high and let price test the lows.

5aa7114b812e5_28-09BundAfternoon.thumb.jpg.8a1a0bdc1bbf7872e179cf480cedd568.jpg

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Alright Folks, after reflecting on my trading performance and taking on board the great advice I have been given by other Wyckoff traders, I have come upon the conclusion that I need a much more specific and more clearly defined approach in my trading, and that starts by creating a clear plan of what I expect before the day starts, so I know what I would do in each scenario. Even though, this is the most detailed plan I have created so far, I am sure the market will surprise me tomorrow and behave in different ways that I haven’t anticipated. I am seeing this is a process and hopefully, as I gain experience, my plan will become more elaborate and it will foresee a greater number of scenarios.

For tomorrow, I am looking for trades at 4 different areas where price has reacted over the last few days:

 

The first support is found between 141.13 and 141.10, Second support is between 141.31-141.34, first resistance is 141.69-141.72 and second resistance is 141.92-141.95.

I have also annotated 2 midpoints of previous ranges, where the Market Profile shows a volume POC, however, I don’t want to plan trades at these levels since I think the four outlined above are enough for the time being.

 

Now on to the Scenarios:

 

Scenario R stands for a reversal or rejection of a S/R level. This setup is triggered when the following occurs:

1- Price moves towards a highlighted area and buyers/sellers come in, pushing price in the opposite direction at least 4 ticks.

2- Price comes back to the area slowly; there is a lessening of pressure and it fails to make a HH/HL in the direction of the trend.

3- 3- At this point the most relevant DL/SL has been broken.

 

Re-entry Rules- In some occasions, the trade might be closed at the break of the DL/SL. The following conditions would call for a re-entry:

 

1- Price breaks the DL, retraces but makes a Low higher than the previous.

2- Price comes back all the way down to the LSL and finds support once more.

3- Price comes all the way down to support, breaks the level but is swiftly propelled back above Support, in which case I will wait for a Higher Low to enter.

 

Entry- The trade is entered 1 tick above the previous 1m bar close, in the direction of the reversal.

 

Stop Placement- Stop loss is place below the LSL, above the LSH

 

Trade management- SL/DL are drawn as price makes new lows and the trade is exited at a breach of one of these lines

 

Scenario BO stands for breakout, however, the trade setup is the retracement after the breakout, not the actual breakout. The setup is triggered when the following occurs:

 

1- Price breaks a level with ease, and there is no effort to push it back above Support/below Resistance, it falls feels jittery at the lows and falls fast.

2- A retracement takes place, which must get close to the previous level, it must be a slow retracement with low pace and volume drying up on the way up, as new buyers rejects higher prices. (Break of Support)

 

 

Re-entry Rules- In some occasions, the trade might be closed at the break of the DL/SL. The following conditions would call for a re-entry:

 

1- If price comes back to the pullback level and finds support once more, an entry is legit and a new Sl/DL should be drawn.

 

Entry- Once buyers have tested the old level, the trade is entered 1 tick below/above the close of the previous 1m bar in the direction of the trend.

Stop Placement- Stop loss is placed 1 tick above previous S/R level

 

Trade management- A DL/SL is drawn when if price makes a new H/L in the direction of the trend and the trade is exited when this levels id drawn.

5aa7114fc4547_03-10plan.thumb.jpg.2495fb75d9c796024c2cf7df11aa4ad3.jpg

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Yesterdays plan certainly served its purpose, unfortunately, I wasn't trading at the open and mised the best opportunities, that would've been:

 

0= Buy ret aftert BO

0.5= Sell Rejection

 

I lost a lot of money geting long at 1-2-3, and in hindsight, I should not have taken so many entries.

 

At 4-5, I traded Ret after BO, the first was a loser and second a big winner, I still need to backtest this pattern thoroughly, which I will be doing in the next few days.

 

At point 6, I noticed how on the re-test, price wasn't slow but fell rapidly, showing (I interpret) a lessening of buying pressure, if there was good buying here, price shouldn't fall with such ease.

 

 

Around 10, price found support at 44 but I didn't have a level here and I passed this, at some point I'll have to decide what to do with ranges in my plan.

 

The afternoon was a disaster, as I tried to sell 69-72 repeatedly and with little success.

I also rushed into Bout trades at 11 and 13, which again shows how I need to spend more time testing this.

5aa7115200877_03-10morning.thumb.jpg.06a41706291540820538ced6d786e19c.jpg

5aa71152080a2_03-10Bundafternoon.thumb.JPG.6c70279998e3aec0efea677a540145e3.JPG

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Yesterday was my best day so far, in terms of being patient and waiting for the best opportunities at the extremes of the range.

 

A short was executed at 76 and a long at 16 and they both where very profitable trades. The thing I am post pleased with is being patient waiting for price to test the levels.

 

Today the same plan applies, focus on rejections of S/R or any major Bout, in which case I will wait for a ret.

 

I have identified S at 13-10, and R at 79, and 91-95.

04-05.JPG.95152742319c38de3fa56a30120d00c7.JPG

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A bund update and tomorrows levels. Traders are still finding value between 141 and 141.5 so a short arround any of these areas would be legit. A breakout above/below one of these levels would also be part of my plan.

5aa711583e44d_11-10bund.png.720b9115df12154675c5accf4b931331.png

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Hi Tupapa,

 

Although the Euro-Bund is below R, there seem to be in my opinion significant potential for an upside move.

 

The longer chart will show the rise and then the drop gets arrested and price consolidating in a trading range.

 

Also notice the lower high. Only the really small bar interval is showing a chance of a short but even that with the steep rise in price is questionable. You do know price does whatever it does so stay alert but keep this upside bias that I am providing in mind as well. If weakness develops there is no harm in attempting shorts.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31939&stc=1&d=1349897286

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31940&stc=1&d=1349897286

 

Good luck with your trading and stick to your plan.

 

Gringo

5aa711584345c_EuroBund(5Hours)20121010152020.png.9a4582fba401e2879829573707a0cbe7.png

5aa7115847f40_EuroBund(15Minutes)20121010152325.png.345da43b286478eed628c8e64da6a0ac.png

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Thanks for your contribution Gringo, you were clearly right about the upside potential, unfortunately, it all happened overnight and we opened with a massive Gap! :(

 

I got severely screwed yesterday, trying to play reversals at Support, which ended up being a costly strategy... and when finally, price reversed at 00, I was to nackered to consider an entry..

 

Something that I am noting with Das Bund, is that it tends to breach levels by a few ticks, it isn't accurate at all and often, it reverses in the middle of nowhere... I will have to work on re-defining my set-ups, back to the testing room over the weekend :)

 

As for today, as things stand these are my levels on the 15m and 60m charts... I have to say I am finding it challenging to find reliable S/R levels.

 

So as things stand, I am looking at a short, if price rejects 48-54 and long if price is supported at 05-00

 

Also Gringo, glad to see ur doing well with the NQ Keep on the hard work mate!

5aa7115919787_11-10morning.thumb.png.1c210fdc81ff0dd468b49fe761f8ced6.png

5aa711597ac29_11-10afternoon.thumb.png.b3bf47218da3af3e6efd4402e692da75.png

5aa711597f106_bund15m.JPG.b2eda1770233d682841a27ba8c03a1a1.JPG

5aa7115982f8b_Bund1h.JPG.75031460a8015f5a2cc7d5274a4b447b.JPG

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Today's Bund so far. It is currently approaching R at 90-95, so a rejection of this level would be a legit entry.

 

Below this I have support at 141.5, although it is difficult to find many levels, inside the macro trend we are currently in.

5aa7115bad153_bund714.JPG.8679e0cc4d3e032249416ffe8fab3c98.JPG

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Edit: 07:32 Not much going on so far, price found R at 84 but it is stuck in a small range.

 

Looking at the daily, it is clear that we are in a small range/consolidation, which explains the lack of opportunities over the past week. The trend on the daily shows a LH followed by a LL but whether the current range ends up forming another LH remains to be seen.

Daily.JPG.0a1af8a8b44ae88f1d66e4594e89f416.JPG

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    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Holds At The Bottom, Is The Consolidation Ongoing?   Key Resistance Levels: $275, $300, $325 Key Support Levels: $200, $160, $120 BCH/USD Price Long-term Trend: Ranging Bitcoin Cash had been trading in the large price range between the levels of $200 and $240. Presently, the coin is now fluctuating at the bottom of the chart. In retrospect, the bulls break the $240 resistance line and reached a high of $310. The coin was resisted as BSH drops back to a range-bound zone. The bears tested the low at $200 but there was a pulled back. The pullback was a correction as the upward move was stopped at $227. BCH is trading between the low at $200 and $227. The bulls are now having difficulty to move upward because of the resistance at $227. Conversely, the bears have failed to break the low of $200. Daily Chart Indicators Reading: The Fibonacci tool indicates that the coin reverses at the 1.272 extension level. BCH will resume the downtrend if the downtrend line or the support line is broken below. The RSI period 14 level 35 is indicating that the price is falling. BCH/USD Medium-term bias: Ranging On the 4-hour chart, the coin is fluctuating between the levels of $200 and $220. The bulls tested and broke the $220 price level but fell back to the range-bound zone. The price is trading below the $227 resistance level; a break is being expected shortly. 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is trading above the 20% range of the daily stochastic. This signifies that BCH is in a bullish momentum. The blue and red lines are trending horizontally indicating that price is fluctuating. General Outlook for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash is still confined within the price range of $200 and $240. Presently, BCH is in a tight range; a break above $227 will move price to the high of $240. Nevertheless, a break below $200 may weaken the coin to a low of $160. Bitcoin Cash Trade Signal Instrument: BCHUSD Order: buy Entry price: $203 Stop: $175 Target: $241 Source: https://learn2.trade 
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