Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

tupapa

Tupapa's Log

Recommended Posts

I will start posting my pre-market and post market analysis here, I am currently trading the Bund but might also trade other instruments in the future.

 

Feel free to comment or discuss any trades, and any feedback will be appreciated!

 

So first of all here is a preliminary version of my trading plan. This is a very crude version of how I am trading and subjected to constant reviewing and improvement:

 

I trade only of support and resistance found from at least two larger timeframe charts, the daily is used to obtain major levels and the 10k Volume and 5k Volume chart is used to find smaller levels.

 

Entries:

 

I define a succesful test/Rejection as:

 

1- A double bottom/top on the 1m chart.

2- A HL/LH on the 1m chart.

 

I define a fakeout as:

 

1- Price beakouts through a level with apparent strenght, but is pushed back into the range rapidly, the bars are long and fast.

2- Price tries once again to move in the direction of the breakout, but it is slow and the bars are much smaller, resulting in a LH/HL

 

I define a successful retracement after a breakout as:

 

1- Price breaks through a level, and instead of being pushed back into the range, it retraces slowly, the bars are short and price sits there.

2- Price might range above the level for some time before the move.

 

Trade Entry:

 

-In the cases in which the above conditions are met, I will enter the trade 1 tick below/above the previous bar, in the direction of the trend, I let price come to me

 

Trade management:

 

1- First exit is the stop loss.

2- When price starts moving, I wait for a retracement and draw a D/S line.

3- The first lot is exited at the break of the line, once this happens I move the top for my second lot to breakeven.

4- The second lot is closed when price makes a LH or HL or breaks the LSH/LSL, whatever happens first.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My plan for the bund tomorrow is trading of the following labels marked on the 10K Chart, I will only trade of support and resistance.

 

So i will look to go long at support if price fakeouts or tests the following levels:

 

Support:

 

139.66

139.5

139.38

139.25

139.12

139.02

 

I will go short if price fakeouts or tests the following levels:

 

Resistance:

139.88

139.95

140.26

140.44

5aa71142deae2_19-010kVOL.thumb.JPG.4c18ea95bf0cebf10d3222302e0b46e1.JPG

5aa71142e638d_Bund5k20-09.thumb.JPG.baa70af79365a7993bcbe09c97a36c76.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I define a fakeout as:

 

1- Price beakouts through a level with apparent strenght, but is pushed back into the range rapidly, the bars are long and fast.

2- Price tries once again to move in the direction of the breakout, but it is slow and the bars are much smaller, resulting in a LH/HL

 

 

Trade Entry:

 

-In the cases in which the above conditions are met, I will enter the trade 1 tick below/above the previous bar, in the direction of the trend, I let price come to me

.

 

Hi,

 

Do you mean to initiate a long if the BO was long and then price falls back in the range and then slowly BO to the upside? It's a fake out, but in which direction are you anticipating the move to be? Or is this just to remind you it's a fake-out and to stay out of it?

 

Gringo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear as I interpret a takeout as a reversal pattern. For instance if price is approaching resistance and moves above the level with ease, but suddenly the sellers come in pushing price below resistance (wide range and rapidly). Then buyers try to push price above resistance but the bars are short and they struggle, resulting in a Lower High.

 

That is when I enter the short, same thing for a long at support.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Observations:

 

1- Price started of ranging above and below yesterdays high, showing strong indecision and I was trying to short it, pre-empting the breakout because I had a short bias. There's to things I can learn from today, first loose the bias and second, stay away of trading ranges, as soon as I spot one, exit my position and let it develop.

 

2- Wide range bars are very dangerous and I should avoid them as they lead to spikes and my stop getting hit, I should wait until there is clear weakness or strenght from the part of bulls or bears.

 

3- When price dropped below support, there was no hesitation and price wasn't jittery. Instead price ranged for some time and it felt almost as if “someone” was holding it. After this it made a double bottom, then a Higher Low and started moving up, into the range, this is a good opportunity for a long trade.

 

 

Some snapshots of today's trading, I didn't take these trades but I thought it would be useful to annotate them on the chart.

 

My only goal for tomorrow is to be more disciplined and trade only at S/R levels plotted in advance.

5aa71143f0cb8_20-09morninglog.thumb.JPG.11c1b1a4ddaea784db83dece71fa23f9.JPG

5aa711440410d_20-09Logsecondhalf.thumb.jpg.4996d9da0b668e5a34c9725784f72b0e.jpg

5aa711440b2bb_20-09LogThirdhalf.thumb.jpg.494c0219c3a885276e296aec130e6d82.jpg

5aa7114412d1a_21-09Levels.thumb.jpg.db3cf53b0ae632a05cb83ae50feacec4.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today was another range day with not many opportunities. The best opportunities, using the S/R levels I uploaded yesterday where:

 

2- Short at 92, when price can't break through R.

 

5- Short when price breaks below R and can't get back above it, a short of that double top at 98 would've been preferable but I didn't have a level anywhere near there, so I can't justify this.

 

6- Price breaks important support at 66 and loads of volume goes through, however, it doesn't feel jittery, like yesterday, it feels as if someone is holding it, buying everything thats on sale, price then makes a double bottom, a HL and trends for the rest of the afternoon, all the way above R.

 

8- If one didn't buy at 6, a buy at the breakout at point 8 could be good, however, I am not that experienced with breakouts and I'm still working on how to trade them.

 

9- That double top is a classic whyckoff example of climactic selling followed by a lower vol re-test. Again, I didn't have a level here but maybe I should include this as a must-take set-up, regardless of if I have a level or not. If one didn't sell here, selling weakness at 11 could be another option.

 

The levels today again pointed towards the best opportunities. With some many gaps recently I find it hard to plot accurate levels, I need to study plotting S/R in further detail.

5aa711448395e_Bundmorning.thumb.jpg.e50946ae12e958236f49521c2feacaf1.jpg

5aa711448b5bc_bundafternoon21-09.thumb.JPG.730a0a0d2efe28e79cc03774ef3dc612.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday the Bund made new highs, auctioned above the critical 30 and 40 Resistance level and it stayed inside its trade channel.

 

The best opportunities using S/R levels where the short of R at 07:40 and the long of support at 95.

 

My worst trades where taken at Breakouts as I still struggle with entry timing and identifying a legit pullback.

 

Yesterday was a proof of how important is it to stand aside when things aren't clear, such as price ranging above or below a level. In these cases, it is best to stand aside and let for a clear direction to develop.

5aa7114698324_bund24-09morning.thumb.JPG.3abe7f6444aff7a68394523da064d9cf.JPG

5aa711469ff31_24-09bundafternoon.thumb.jpg.183152d67f6bce5b531c09fdd4ef78a9.jpg

5aa71146a6577_Bund24-09levels.JPG.e131b092dcf8b6d42dec21d77b116582.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today has been difficult for me so far.. Price broke Resistance at 61 and I thought it could trend since there is little resistance above this level, however, sellers came in at 73 pushing price down.

 

During the last hour price has been ranging between 52 and 64.

5aa71146aa33e_25-09sofar.JPG.7bc013e0ecceb72dac3875a05ee89945.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's trading so far, The biggest regret is not taking the long 10:18, as price found S at the previous range midpoint, that represents a lot of volume.

 

Something else I noticed in hindsight was I didn't exit my long at 84, although there is so much vol at 93, a pre-defined Resistance.

 

Regarding yesterdays trading, my biggest mistake was not perceiving the trading between 10:00 and 11:00 as a rejection and LH, instead I was stubborn looking for a pullback, it shows how flexible one needs to be.

5aa7114a796ea_28-09Morning.thumb.jpg.b513cd38233d9c93a671038eb58dc2b7.jpg

5aa7114a8184c_27-09morning.thumb.jpg.fb1da5702e4d80789594190f9aa775d3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A much better afternoon from my part with more clear opportunities.

 

My biggest error was because I got stoped out at 73, and then jumping into a trade at 82 because I was to pissed of to buy Support at the time at 84.

 

Another important error was not holding to my short at 88 for longer (second lot), need to have more trust in myself, place the stop above AR high and let price test the lows.

5aa7114b812e5_28-09BundAfternoon.thumb.jpg.8a1a0bdc1bbf7872e179cf480cedd568.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alright Folks, after reflecting on my trading performance and taking on board the great advice I have been given by other Wyckoff traders, I have come upon the conclusion that I need a much more specific and more clearly defined approach in my trading, and that starts by creating a clear plan of what I expect before the day starts, so I know what I would do in each scenario. Even though, this is the most detailed plan I have created so far, I am sure the market will surprise me tomorrow and behave in different ways that I haven’t anticipated. I am seeing this is a process and hopefully, as I gain experience, my plan will become more elaborate and it will foresee a greater number of scenarios.

For tomorrow, I am looking for trades at 4 different areas where price has reacted over the last few days:

 

The first support is found between 141.13 and 141.10, Second support is between 141.31-141.34, first resistance is 141.69-141.72 and second resistance is 141.92-141.95.

I have also annotated 2 midpoints of previous ranges, where the Market Profile shows a volume POC, however, I don’t want to plan trades at these levels since I think the four outlined above are enough for the time being.

 

Now on to the Scenarios:

 

Scenario R stands for a reversal or rejection of a S/R level. This setup is triggered when the following occurs:

1- Price moves towards a highlighted area and buyers/sellers come in, pushing price in the opposite direction at least 4 ticks.

2- Price comes back to the area slowly; there is a lessening of pressure and it fails to make a HH/HL in the direction of the trend.

3- 3- At this point the most relevant DL/SL has been broken.

 

Re-entry Rules- In some occasions, the trade might be closed at the break of the DL/SL. The following conditions would call for a re-entry:

 

1- Price breaks the DL, retraces but makes a Low higher than the previous.

2- Price comes back all the way down to the LSL and finds support once more.

3- Price comes all the way down to support, breaks the level but is swiftly propelled back above Support, in which case I will wait for a Higher Low to enter.

 

Entry- The trade is entered 1 tick above the previous 1m bar close, in the direction of the reversal.

 

Stop Placement- Stop loss is place below the LSL, above the LSH

 

Trade management- SL/DL are drawn as price makes new lows and the trade is exited at a breach of one of these lines

 

Scenario BO stands for breakout, however, the trade setup is the retracement after the breakout, not the actual breakout. The setup is triggered when the following occurs:

 

1- Price breaks a level with ease, and there is no effort to push it back above Support/below Resistance, it falls feels jittery at the lows and falls fast.

2- A retracement takes place, which must get close to the previous level, it must be a slow retracement with low pace and volume drying up on the way up, as new buyers rejects higher prices. (Break of Support)

 

 

Re-entry Rules- In some occasions, the trade might be closed at the break of the DL/SL. The following conditions would call for a re-entry:

 

1- If price comes back to the pullback level and finds support once more, an entry is legit and a new Sl/DL should be drawn.

 

Entry- Once buyers have tested the old level, the trade is entered 1 tick below/above the close of the previous 1m bar in the direction of the trend.

Stop Placement- Stop loss is placed 1 tick above previous S/R level

 

Trade management- A DL/SL is drawn when if price makes a new H/L in the direction of the trend and the trade is exited when this levels id drawn.

5aa7114fc4547_03-10plan.thumb.jpg.2495fb75d9c796024c2cf7df11aa4ad3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterdays plan certainly served its purpose, unfortunately, I wasn't trading at the open and mised the best opportunities, that would've been:

 

0= Buy ret aftert BO

0.5= Sell Rejection

 

I lost a lot of money geting long at 1-2-3, and in hindsight, I should not have taken so many entries.

 

At 4-5, I traded Ret after BO, the first was a loser and second a big winner, I still need to backtest this pattern thoroughly, which I will be doing in the next few days.

 

At point 6, I noticed how on the re-test, price wasn't slow but fell rapidly, showing (I interpret) a lessening of buying pressure, if there was good buying here, price shouldn't fall with such ease.

 

 

Around 10, price found support at 44 but I didn't have a level here and I passed this, at some point I'll have to decide what to do with ranges in my plan.

 

The afternoon was a disaster, as I tried to sell 69-72 repeatedly and with little success.

I also rushed into Bout trades at 11 and 13, which again shows how I need to spend more time testing this.

5aa7115200877_03-10morning.thumb.jpg.06a41706291540820538ced6d786e19c.jpg

5aa71152080a2_03-10Bundafternoon.thumb.JPG.6c70279998e3aec0efea677a540145e3.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday was my best day so far, in terms of being patient and waiting for the best opportunities at the extremes of the range.

 

A short was executed at 76 and a long at 16 and they both where very profitable trades. The thing I am post pleased with is being patient waiting for price to test the levels.

 

Today the same plan applies, focus on rejections of S/R or any major Bout, in which case I will wait for a ret.

 

I have identified S at 13-10, and R at 79, and 91-95.

04-05.JPG.95152742319c38de3fa56a30120d00c7.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bund update and tomorrows levels. Traders are still finding value between 141 and 141.5 so a short arround any of these areas would be legit. A breakout above/below one of these levels would also be part of my plan.

5aa711583e44d_11-10bund.png.720b9115df12154675c5accf4b931331.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Tupapa,

 

Although the Euro-Bund is below R, there seem to be in my opinion significant potential for an upside move.

 

The longer chart will show the rise and then the drop gets arrested and price consolidating in a trading range.

 

Also notice the lower high. Only the really small bar interval is showing a chance of a short but even that with the steep rise in price is questionable. You do know price does whatever it does so stay alert but keep this upside bias that I am providing in mind as well. If weakness develops there is no harm in attempting shorts.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31939&stc=1&d=1349897286

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=31940&stc=1&d=1349897286

 

Good luck with your trading and stick to your plan.

 

Gringo

5aa711584345c_EuroBund(5Hours)20121010152020.png.9a4582fba401e2879829573707a0cbe7.png

5aa7115847f40_EuroBund(15Minutes)20121010152325.png.345da43b286478eed628c8e64da6a0ac.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for your contribution Gringo, you were clearly right about the upside potential, unfortunately, it all happened overnight and we opened with a massive Gap! :(

 

I got severely screwed yesterday, trying to play reversals at Support, which ended up being a costly strategy... and when finally, price reversed at 00, I was to nackered to consider an entry..

 

Something that I am noting with Das Bund, is that it tends to breach levels by a few ticks, it isn't accurate at all and often, it reverses in the middle of nowhere... I will have to work on re-defining my set-ups, back to the testing room over the weekend :)

 

As for today, as things stand these are my levels on the 15m and 60m charts... I have to say I am finding it challenging to find reliable S/R levels.

 

So as things stand, I am looking at a short, if price rejects 48-54 and long if price is supported at 05-00

 

Also Gringo, glad to see ur doing well with the NQ Keep on the hard work mate!

5aa7115919787_11-10morning.thumb.png.1c210fdc81ff0dd468b49fe761f8ced6.png

5aa711597ac29_11-10afternoon.thumb.png.b3bf47218da3af3e6efd4402e692da75.png

5aa711597f106_bund15m.JPG.b2eda1770233d682841a27ba8c03a1a1.JPG

5aa7115982f8b_Bund1h.JPG.75031460a8015f5a2cc7d5274a4b447b.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's Bund so far. It is currently approaching R at 90-95, so a rejection of this level would be a legit entry.

 

Below this I have support at 141.5, although it is difficult to find many levels, inside the macro trend we are currently in.

5aa7115bad153_bund714.JPG.8679e0cc4d3e032249416ffe8fab3c98.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Edit: 07:32 Not much going on so far, price found R at 84 but it is stuck in a small range.

 

Looking at the daily, it is clear that we are in a small range/consolidation, which explains the lack of opportunities over the past week. The trend on the daily shows a LH followed by a LL but whether the current range ends up forming another LH remains to be seen.

Daily.JPG.0a1af8a8b44ae88f1d66e4594e89f416.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • GBPUSD Eyes Further Upside Pressure On More Bull Pressure   GBPUSD with the pair remaining biased to the upside more strength is expected in the days ahead. Support lies at 1.3100 area with a break below that level turning focus to the 1.3050 level. Further down, support comes in the 1.3000 level where a violation will shift focus to the 1.2950 level. Below here will open the door towards the 1.2900 level. On the upside, resistance is located at the 1.3200 with a break above there allowing for morel strength to build up towards the 1.3250 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.3300 level followed by the 1.3350 level. On the whole, GBPUSD retains its broader upside pressure.    
    • Yes, AMP is a good and reliable broker. Almost all FCM brokers and their IBs provide a similar service (the main difference is commission per side or per round, min deposit. Also, margin requirements, but commonly they are similar) Quantower platform allows to trade futures with AMP via Rithmic technology with full market depth data (!)
    • I have never asked for any help here. Never expect a person to be good with me or others. But as Market wizard you should show some respect for others.
    • That is the truth, if you can not accept it then it is not the world problem. Everything you get in this world is having some fees, for that you have to work.
    • Date : 4th December 2019. FX Update – December 4 – Risk Off – 4th December 2019.AUDJPY, H1The Yen has rallied on a safe-haven bid as global stock markets turn lower after President Trump, nearly two months after announcing the limited “Phase 1” trade deal with China, said that trade negotiations may be postponed until after the 2020 presidential election. This after announcing intentions to tariff steel imports from Brazil and Argentina. Disappointing Q3 GDP out of Australia, a country that is highly exposed to the US-China trade, was also in the mix. Growth came in at 0.4% q/q in the antipodean economy, against a median of 0.5%. USDJPY printed a 13-day low at 108.43, while EURJPY and AUDJPY descended into respective one-week low territory and is the biggest moving pair today, down some -0.6%. The Australian Dollar has been the day’s biggest loser out of the main currencies. AUDUSD more than reversed gains seen yesterday on the less dovish than expected RBA statement, in making a low of 0.6814. The AUDJPY triggered lower yesterday on the Crossing EMA Strategy, H1 at 13:00 GMT (1) move down to T1 (2), retraced to Entry (3) to close T2 flat. It then triggered lower again (4) and moved to T1 (5) and T2 (6) for a net move of 47 pips for both legs lower.The Dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, has held firm, finding its own safe haven bid. The sharpest in six months drop in the U.S. 10-year T-note yield yesterday was a reflection of this safe haven bid, which is why forex markets haven’t been trading on yield differential dynamics in the latest phase. Both EURUSD and Cable both drifted moderately lower, before a bid on Sterling saw cable breach 1.3000 and trade over 1.3040 and post a new six month high. Elsewhere, EURCHF has dropped for a third consecutive trading day, this time hitting a three-week low at 1.0923. The decline in the cross have correlated with the prevailing risk-off phase that started at Friday’s release of disappointing U.S. manufacturing ISM data.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.