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Tupapa's Log

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Update on Bunds, nothing is clear to me this morning. We just had an upwvae up to 69, which isn't a lvel and found S at 54.


On the 15m we broke that red up trendline, and I can draw a down TL from 04s, touching 68. he market looks bearish on the 15m, as we failed to hold above 63, which was old support, now resistance.


As for a plan, I am struggling to put anything together, so it might be better to stand aside until things are more clear to me.


Below price, I am looking at:


Longs 47


Longs 35

Longs 24

Longs 18

Longs 97


Above Price, the more obvious trade is short 11, and I would look to get long on a pullback, back into the range.


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Something that has helped me in using the TR levels is to identify if the line represents the entry into a TR or the exit from a TR. once one plots these lines one tend to forget that they are essentially the limits of a previous value area.

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Ye I know what you mean Niko, the problem this morning was finding the right resistance spot to sell at. Today, there simply was no such level in the vicinity of 63s, so there was no entry with the right stop placement.


The only opportunity for a short was when price broke the Initial Balance Low (Initial balance is the 1st hour of trading activity)


Here, there was a pullback at around 8:45, on diminishing volume and a contraction in volatility.


Unfortunately I didn't take this, since I am not very confident with this setup and it needs refining.


It might be something worth trying in your markets.


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Today we trended lower, and ended up forming a range between 88 and 20, so the initial plan is obvious:


At 20 short a reversal, and target is midpoint of the range at 05 for the 1st half, and lower limit for the second half.


-IF we break above, look to buy a pullback, and reversals at 35 and at 46.


At 88 go long on a reversal, target is 05s and 20.


-If we break below, go short on a pullback and look for reversals only at 78 and 60


I am also including an analysis of today's trading, which was generally erractic, lacking in discipline in detailing a thorough plan and in following it, not great but some lessons for tomorrow.




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Today's trading, not bad since I only made trade outside of the plan, but still so much room for improvement...


Today's causes of hesitation are familiar:


1- Rejection of 87 I was to slow bidding 92 and didn't get a fill.

2- Then I didn't buy the Pullback to 23 because the GDP was coming out.

3- I had a decent short but took it out because of some negative news on europe and a blip against me.


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Price has already opened above 66, so here is the plan for the day:


Go Long on a test of the 66 area, since we are back into the previous Rane (Value area) and there is a good chance that traders will test the upper range limit. Targets are MP for 1/2 and upper limit for 1/2


--If we break below 66, go short on a pullback, and look for longs at 43/23.


Go short on a rejection of 11, anticipating a move back into the range, targets ae MP for 1/2 and lower limit for 1/2.


--If we break above 11, go long on a pullback, and look for reversals at 19/32/43/60/73/87


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For tomorrow, I am looking at 2 main value areas;


First: the top range between 65 and 11

second: the bottom Value area, between 23 and 60, with a midpoint at 87.


My initial plan revolves around the 142.65 level.


If we break above 142.65, go long on a pullback, and look for shorts at 01 and 09.

--If we break above 09, go long on a pullback, and monitor potential reversals at 18/41 and 60.


If we open below 142.65, go short on a rejection, and look for reversals at 23.

--If we break below 23, go short on a pullback, and monitor potential reversals at 05 and 87.



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Weekly performance:



Monday, 11/2: -12

-No short IBL Tline

-Hesitation coz of not exact level

-Trading with no levels.

Tuesday 12/2:0

-Was out for the day and no opportunities in the evening

Wednesday 13/2: -12

-No short IBl Tline

-To many attempts at 1 trade,

-No entry coz of figure

-Bought 4th test of support

-Continuation after trend exhaustion

-Missed a good long and anger shorted

Thursday 14/2:+18

-Hesitation coz of not exact level

-No entry coz of figure

-Scratched coz of negative commend and strong counter-wave

Friday 15/2:-6

-Massively over-traded, to many attempts at more than 1 trade.

-Had a constant bullish view and didn’t take small profits.






Tomorrow's levels haven't changed, Initial plan:


Long 66 or sell PB if we break


Short 86, buy PB if we break


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Today's Plan:


Short Rejecion of 66, if we break above, go long on a pullback.


Below this, we are currently finding R at the PDL 61 as I write this, but I am not short so it is going to be hard to find a level to short below this, and if price starts falling there are possible reversals at:


142.50 VPOC

142.45 was S a few days ago

142.22 Top of the TR


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Tomorrows Trades:


A- Long Rejection 53/45 target is Mp of range and 93.


B Short Rejection 93. Target is 53


C Short rejection 12. Target is 53


If break Above 12, Long PB Montitor 22.


If break Below 45. Short PB and monitor 14


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Yesterday and todays trading, today I started by following my plan with discipline, but since the market didn't pick a direction, I got angry and this affected my trading negatively.



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Tomorrows Plan


Buy Support at the area 89/81,

--If we break below, sell PB, and monitor:

------VPoc at 65 and suuport at 45


Sell resistance at 29/40

--If we break buy PB


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Tomorrow there are two ranges:


Range1- 63-37

Tange2 37-82, Mp at 17


The plan is:


If we open In range 1:

Sell rejection of 63, Target s 37

---IF we break above, Buy PB to63


Buy Rejection of 37

--f we break below sell PB and tagets are 17 and 82,

where I can look fo reversal setups


If we open in Range 2:


Sell rejectin of 37, tarets are 27 and 8.

--If we beak above, buy PB target s 63.


Buy Rejection of 82, Target is 17 ad 37.

--If we break below, sell PBm target s are 65 an 44.


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Tomorrows Plan;


If we Open inside A


Buy 36

---If we break sell PB and monitor 17

Sell 47 Target is 36

Sell 64 Target is 36

---IF we break higher buy PB and monitor 82


FI we Opwn Above A, BUy pb 64 and monitor 82.


If we Open inside B

Sell Rejection of 36, Target is Mp of range and 82

Look for longs at Mp of range or VPOC

Buy rejection of 82.


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Tomorrows ranges:


A (29-03)

Go Long on a rejection of 145.03, Targets are 20 and 29

---If we break below short PB Target is 82


Go short on Rejection of 20

Go short on Rejection of 29

Go short on Rejection of 37

--If we break above go long on PB, Target is 57




Edited by tupapa

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