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Dunstan

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C - 28%, LS – 30% /
FTG Score / D 3.0, W -17.7, M -38.4 /
Although we have this large bullish cot change signal, the fact that the market fell after bearish extremes of past few weeks suggests that further decline is very possible in silver. This is fully supported by FTG scores: the more we look out in time, the stronger these scores become.

Euro
COT Extreme / C - 103, LS – 115 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -49.7, W -46.1, M -32.0 /
Bullish extreme growing steadily suggesting possible euro strengthening, but caution is advised, FTG scores show a very bearish picture bot in the short and also in the long term.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C - 192, LS – 112 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -7.2, W -27.1, M -36.8 /
We may need to wait a few more weeks, but rough rice seem to be giving us a good trading opportunity. The extreme is leaning towards the bullish side again and if we look at what the market did in the past in such cases, we can conclude a high chance of probability for it rally once more.

All the best, 
Dunstan


COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

Report9_Rough Rice.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C - 26%, LS – 24%, SS - 34% /
FTG Score / D -30.1, W -37.5, M -28.6 /
Huge cot change signal, but possibly late for us… COT extreme still bullish, but significant bearish FTG scores suggest the real rally is further away, months or even years should not surprise us.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C - 135, LS – 156 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -41.2, W 0.8, M -37.6 /
Huge bullish cot extreme can be witnessed here indicating a rally ahead of us. By looking at FTG scores I would expect a bit of a decline now giving us better entry points.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / LS – 68, SS - 362 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 27.0, W 21.8, M -4.0 /
Growing bearish cot extreme suggesting a top soon, but FTG scores indicating strength in the market suggests that patients could be a profitable direction now.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

Report10_Live Cattle.png

Report10_Wheat.png

Report10_Sugar.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 50%, LS – 27%, SS - 57% /

COT Extreme / SS – 1270 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.9, W -12.2, M 14.3 /
All of our cot signals are bearish, ftg scores are not against this view either so we may be in for a top soon…

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W 8.9, M 4.5 /
Correlating markets (LH) so we are not surprised to see this bearish cot signal in live cattle… Pretty obvious picture, not much to argue about:)

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 302, SS - 303 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.8, W -11.8, M -42.5 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme signal which of course means that the chances of Mexican peso to lose value against the USD has risen dramatically. Looking at examples from the past one can easily come to the conclusion that cot extreme signals seem to be very efficient in this market.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

Report11_MXP.png

Report11_Live cattle.png

Report11_Lean Hogs.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 35%, LS – 50%, SS - 42% /

FTG Score / D 25.6, W -6.7, M 8.1 /
Seem as if the market started reacting to these bearish signals coming from the cot report. Let’s see what happens the next few weeks.


Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.9, W 8.9, M -2.8 /
As in case of Lean hogs, here we can also find signs that the market started to change in accordance with the cot signals. Such extremes are always great signals that eventually produce results.


Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 308, SS – 308 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.5, W -29.7, M -67.9 /
As the extreme grew larger, so did FTG scores become even more bearish. Now we have an ever higher probability for the currency to lose value against the USD.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

Report12_MXP.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 34%, LS – 32%, SS - 21% /

FTG Score / D -40.3, W -47.5, M -43.2 /
Very large change has happened in Traders positions here (bullish cot signal), but FTG scores indicate that further weakness is on its way, so maybe we should wait a bit…


Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W -8.8, M 10.9 /
COT analysis is here is not as straight forward here since we are talking about only a 1 year history for Bitcoin, but the fact that small speculators are heavily long suggests to me that there could be a higher chance for the market to move lower in the next couple of weeks /months. We will see… interesting market :)


Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -18.8, W -40.9, M -53.2 /
One of the nicest opportunities this week: All time cot extreme signal (bearish) and a support from FTG as well.


All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-russian-ruble-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-bitcoin-cme-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Posted (edited)

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C - 23%, LS – 26%, SS - 28% /

FTG Score / D 29.0, W 19.7, M -2.5 /
Bearish cot change signaling some decline for this week, but the larger picture seems to remain bullish.


Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 7.4, W -18.3, M 12.7 /
Following my remarks from last post I am still cautious here and waiting for enough history to be able to start seeing correlations between cot data and price action.


Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C – 312 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 13.3, W -9.2, M -57.8 /
If you are someone who is expecting a USD rise, then you should consider the Mexican peso as a means of trading it. The all time bearish cot extreme speaks for itself. 


All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-mexican-peso-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-bitcoin-cme-futures-cot-net-positions (1).png

cotbase-cocoa-futures-cot-net-positions.png

Edited by Dunstan

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C - 30%, LS – 32%, SS - 14% /

FTG Score / D 27.1, W 35.7, M 35.6 /
No extreme / bearish cot change signal / strong FTG scores: pretty mixed up picture here, maybe it’s best to step aside and wait for a better more clearer situation.

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 15.3, W -27.9, M -52.5 /
The all time extreme combined with such FTG scores says that a very nice shorting opportunity is on the table here:)

Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.0, W -50.9, M -48.6 /
All time bullish extreme but here we do not have support from FTG, thus there may be a good chance that the market is continuing the decline and as it does, we will be receiving even greater extremes the next couple of weeks.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-corn-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-russian-ruble-futures-cot-net-positions (1).png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 15%, LS – 14%, SS - 10% /

FTG Score / D -7.2, W -49.9, M -13.7 /
All of our main cot signals are pointing upwards, but the high weekly FTG score (bearish) warns us to be cautious, further declines could be on their way.

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.3, W -24.4, M -50.2 /
If you were following these signals, then probably you have hopped on a profitable wagon here:) In accordance with the cot extreme signal the market started to move lower and the picture suggests this may continue for many more weeks and months.


Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.9, W -48.9, M -52.2 /
My last week’s remark still holds and you can see that the extreme in the market simply became even larger. FTG system still very bearish, thus patients is still necessary here.


All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-corn-futures-cot-net-positions (1).png

cotbase-russian-ruble-futures-cot-net-positions (2).png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C - 17%, LS – 15%, SS - 14% /

FTG Score / D -28.1, W -55.9, M -43.8 /
We can see a bullish cot change signal, an extreme cot signal becoming very bullish week by week, but bearish FTG readings suggest we may need to wait a little longer.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 125 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -50.9, W -47.4, M -19.0 /
The bullish extreme in Euro similarly to AUD is becoming larger and larger, but has not yet reached all time levels. Due to the fundamentals we are all aware of (US economy’s relative strength compared to rest of the world), I would expect a significant extreme (all time) before Euro turns north.

Swiss Franc
COT Index (10 year) / C - 95%, LS – 10%, SS - 6% /

FTG Score / D -33.2, W -28.7, M -10.1 /
The bullish extreme in the CHF is the strongest, could be one of the first ones that may advance against the USD… or one might see some potential in going long here against a weaker currency like the Russian ruble or the MXP-


All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-swiss-franc-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-euro-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Corn
COT Change (52W) / C - 36%, LS – 31%, SS - 16% /

FTG Score / D 27.8, W 43.3, M 11.3 /
Bearish cot change signal suggesting some weakness early this week, but FTG seems to support further price increases. Let’s not forget that not long ago we have had a significant bullish cot extreme and bearish extremes are still far away.


Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – 163 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -62.8, W -18.6, M -17.9 /
Huge bullish extreme in recent cot report, but I’d wait a bit longer before entering the market. -62.8 daily FTG score suggests a near term new test of lows.

Oats
COT Index (10 year) / C - 11%, LS – 98%, SS - 48% /
FTG Score / D 28.1, W 49.5, M 44.3 /
Bearish cot extreme in oats suggesting that prices could retreat to lower levels in the next couple of weeks.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-oats-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-cotton-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C - 28%, LS – 21%, SS - 41% /

FTG Score / D 48.2, W -34.3, M -9.2 /
This bearish change signal coming from the cot report suggests lower prices coming. Could be the case, although high daily FTG score (positive) makes me cautious.


Oats
COT Extreme / C - 76, LS – 307 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 21.0, W 31.5, M 42.0 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme near the top -> let us be prepared for much cheaper oats.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 14, LS – 182 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -13.3, W -23.3, M -24.5 /
Significant bullish cot extreme in the market, but in my opinion it could grow larger. In anyways, it seems that there may be a good buying opportunity soon.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-heating-oil-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-oats-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-rough-rice-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C - 32%, LS – 36%, SS - 28% /

FTG Score / D 17.8, W 43.3, M 46.1 /
Both cot signal, the change and the extreme suggest that fallback in prices could happen. FTG scores are positive showing strength, but mainly on the weekly & monthly horizon: I can imagine some decline in the near term, but eventually see prices head north again. 


Oats
COT Extreme / C, LS – 308 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 32.6, W 52.3, M 57.1 /
It seems as if the bearish cot extreme signal I’ve been talking about the last time has taken oats down and judging by the size of this extreme I’d be expecting further declines coming.

Brazilian Real
COT Extreme / C, LS – 225 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.8, W -34.6, M -25.9 /
The cot report is indicating a bullish extreme in Traders positions, but FTG scores indicate weakness in the market it may be advisable to wait for a better opportunity.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-brazilian-real-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-oats-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-gold-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 26%, LS – 33% /

FTG Score / D 22.7, W -28.5, M 2.8 /
Huge bearish cot change signal indicating weakness ahead, weekly FTG score supporting it.


Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 183, LS – 184 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.4, W 1.2, M -34.3 /
Significant bullish cot extreme, but caution is advised: 1) Large weakness measured in the market by FTG (daily score of -43.4) and 2) correlating energy markets further away in extremes.

Gold
COT Extreme / C, LS – 62 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 27.9, W 35.2, M 46.1 /
Bearish cot extreme. Not the largest, but at a level worth mentioning. The market is at an important resistance, if it breaks through, we could see the extreme widen further. FTG scores supporting the market, especially in the long timeframes.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-gold-futures-cot-net-positions (1).png

cotbase-heating-oil-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 18%, LS – 20% /

FTG Score / D -7.4, W -19.4, M -16.1 /
The larger than average change in Large Specs and Commercials positions, together with the negative reading from FTG suggest we could see some weakness from platinum in the coming days…


Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 25.0, W 60.3, M 24.5 /
We do not have such a history of cot data to be certain that we have cot signal that we can act upon, nevertheless it is interesting to see Large specs continuing to increase their net short positions, seeing Commercials net short and only Small specs taking the long side of the market. The all time extreme signal in LS would be generally considered a bullish signal, small spec net long a bearish :) FTG scores, especially the weekly show significant support for further rally in the market.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 72, LS – 68 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 37.5, W -26.2, M -25.7 /
In the past few weeks we have witnessed traders changing their positions towards a more bearish situation. The example from May 2017 to October the same year suggests that we could see this trend continuing for some time before the market dips back down. Daily FTG scores seem to back this, although the weekly and monthly already expect changes happening to the CAD.


All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-canadian-dollar-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-bitcoin-cme-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-platinum-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Why Invest?

A lot of people are investing in the stock market as a preparation for retirement days. Yes, it is one primary reason why you should start getting involved in the world of trading but there are other valid reasons you might need to look at. Investing in the stock market means for most people, securing their immediate future and of course hoping that along the way, they earn a considerable amount of cash. Investing in the stock market could give you the power and means to possibly buy the home you've always wanted. While you do not essentially need the full money upfront, you still need the money for down payments to lower down the interest and get a good deal. With a better deal, you will pay less over the years you need to complete to pay the house in full. It also means that you will have immediate equity in your home as an additional bonus. Another good benefit of investing in the stock market is you are not only preparing your future but as well as your children's future. Winning big in the market possibly set up scenarios in which you could send your kids to college for them to start establishing their careers and make their dreams and your dreams a reality. This is yet another long term goal but not that long compared to retirement.


 

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Seems like it’s all about metals this time :)

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 24%, LS – 25% /

FTG Score / D 16.7, W 15.1, M -33.1 /
Bearish cot changes signal together with bearish extreme and that strong FTG readings suggest to me that we have a great opportunity to enter the market from the short side.

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -26.6, M -18.4 /
Opposite to Platinum here we find a more bullish case: all time cot extreme in Commercials and Large speculators position. There is a good change we will find the market higher in a few weeks, months.

Gold

COT Extreme / C - 164, LS – 155, SS - 343 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 35.1, W 3.7, M 3.0 /
After the thy dynamic strengthening of the last few weeks, we should not be surprised if gold pulls back a bit, This is well signaled in the commitments of traders report.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-gold-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-copper-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-platinum-futures-cot-net-positions.png

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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 54%, LS – 54% /

FTG Score / D -24,1, W -36,7, M -25,9 /
All major cot signals are indicating that we have a good chance to see the market to rally.

Wheat (Minn.)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.7, W -31.3, M -29.7/
All time cot extremes are always highly valued, but we should be careful, since history has proven that we can be in such a place for a long time before we see the major trend change… Nevertheless we should be prepared to see Wheat go higher.

Sugar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.6, W 26.4, M -45.2 /
Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat :D but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes!


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

cotbase-sugar-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-wheat-minn-futures-cot-net-positions.png

cotbase-brazilian-real-futures-cot-net-positions.png

Edited by Dunstan

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ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter. Wednesday – 16 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure. Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00) Thursday – 17 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad. Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20) Friday – 18 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2. Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%. Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30) Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • This should really be very easy, but I can't find an article or video to walk me through it. I picked 20 ticker symbols where the stocks are in a tight trading range. I got them all into one list I call "Channel". I'd like to add several indicators that apply to all, such as MACD, volume, 3 moving averages. Then I'd like to scroll through the list, adding trendlines, or horizontal lines to mark the top & bottom of the price channel for each. Then set an alarm for a breakout in each direction that indicates a breakout. Could you point me to an article or video that walks me through how to do this? ...or give me the steps? Thank you, RichardV2, Experienced stock trader back before the Internet was invented.😁
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