Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Has the ES topped out for now?  

8 members have voted

  1. 1. Has the ES topped out for now?

    • Yes definitely, it's going to take a nosedive now!
    • Yes, I think it needs to trade sideways for a while.
    • No, it may dip a little but it's going to the moon!
    • I'm really not sure.
    • Actually, I don't care :)

Recommended Posts

Over the past few days, the ES has been moving back down from the current highs made at 1377.25 on 2/29/12. The current tight uptrend has been in place since a pullback of around 60+ points in Dec last year.


Now many people have been calling for a market top recently and so I thought it'd be useful to discuss the chances of this. Whilst this is a discussion about the ES, of course the same logic can be applied to anything else.


Right now, I am seeing some signs of a possible pullback. Note that I said pullback not top. I think the distinction is important as I personally feel that the stock markets could be ultimately set to go much higher given the support that is so freely offered to them.


I have done a couple of charts to help illustrate a key point. The first shows how until yesterday, the last 3 consecutive RTH sessions in ES to show lower highs were actually before the 60+ point pullback. Admittedly the ranges were much bigger at that time, but nonetheless, since then has been pretty much one-way traffic.






The other point is that value or most traded volume in the same last 3 rth sessions, has been lower each day. Now this is not to say we are going into a retracement necessarily either. It's more than possible that we do move lower to establish a short term bracket low and move sideways for a time before moving one way or the other. Auctions basically tend to go:-




The current move up from Dec '11 is imbalance.


Anyway, balance can be short or not so short. The next chart shows possible areas of importance where the market may no longer be imbalanced to the upside and possibly when it may become imbalanced to the downside.(1350 odd and 1330 odd).




The question is, what do you guys think of the odds of a short term retracement here?




Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

I should note that in the 1st chart, the actual last 3 consecutive rth sessions with lower highs were just after the left red box. The box shows the first 3 in the start of that whole move down with lower highs each day.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

I am writing as we approach the close of rth trading on Thursday 8 March. The ESH2 contract is currently trading at 1366.50


So far today we managed to get up to 1368.50 but since then we have backed downwards again.


I think the chances of a fall from around current levels are greater than a rise. If that were to happen then we would be well on the way for a potential '1-2-3 top reversal' pattern.


If we break 1330 then I think the the way forward is 'clearly' to the downside. If however we get to 1380 say, then this bearish idea of mine is most probably wrong.


In terms of how far could we drop, I think we could well drop a long way ... say some 100 / 150 ES points (ofcourse on the shoulders of the June contract as the March contract is close to expiring).



Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

David, I think we can see that there was plenty of willingness from the market to explore downwards. The Greek debt swap deal completing has us higher again today. It doesn't mean that the top is out of the question either though. A failure to follow through higher could be seen as week if that scenario plays out. I would think that any bulls though would want a break higher in the next few days and also have the gap from wednesday to thursday act as support.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $PPC Pilgrims Pride stock nice move off the 25.63 support area, breakout watch above 26.63 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?PPC
    • Date: 5th December 2023. Market Recap: Fears of overbought condition prevail! Trading Leveraged Products is risky The markets giveth and the market taketh away. Red proliferated the screens as profit taking unwound some of Friday’s aggressive rallies. There were no real catalysts to the move, just fears that markets were overbought and rate cut bets too optimistic. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% at the final meeting of the year. The board, flagged, however, that progress in bringing inflation back to target was slower than anticipated. They noted uncertainty over the global outlook due to the Chinese economy and overseas conflicts. Aussie: Markets are still pricing in some risk of further tightening from the RBA, and the inflation numbers for the last quarter of the year will likely be decisive for the February 6 meeting. China: Services PMI expanded at a quicker pace in November, which was the highest in three months, as demand strengthened in Asia’s largest economy. Market Trends:   Treasury yields closed just off session highs. Asia stock markets sold off, following on from a weaker close on Wall Street. China bourses underperformed, despite a stronger Services PMI. Stocks: Wall Street was underwater from the get-go and closed with modest declines. The US100 slumped -0.84% on weakness in big tech, including Meta on news CEO Zuckerberg was selling shares. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia also declined. Alaska Air dropped after announcing its acquisition of Hawaiian Air. US500 was off -0.54% and the US30 was down -0.11%. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex was one of the few gainers on the day, rebounding to 103.642 (intraday peak of 103.852) following Friday’s drop to 103.268. EURUSD declined to 1.08, indicating apotential retest of 1.0760, as the buck is firmer versus all its G10 peers as rate cut speculation is keeping a lid on EUR and GBP. USDJPY steady above 146.50. Gold has corrected somewhat as the US Dollar found a footing and Treasury yields lifted. It is currently steady at $2030 – $2040 area. Oil remained under pressure as USOIL is currently trading below $74 as markets remain distinctly unimpressed by the voluntary output cuts announced by OPEC+. With growth data suggesting subdued demand that is leaving fears of a sizeable supply overhang through 2024 on the table. Bitcoin extended higher and breached $42,337 for the first time since early 2022 (roughly 153% higher this year). Key Mover: Copper (-0.95%), with next Support at 3.75. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $TASK TaskUs stock breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?TASK
    • $RKLB Rocket Lab stock bottom breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?RKLB
    • $TWST Twist Bioscience stock bull flag breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?TWST
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.