week 6

[torero 10]

Looks the EURUSD is in a range now. Not much to do not much to see? GBPJPY looks like it's at an interesting support. We'll how it works out in lower timeframes.

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Morning Torero,

 

Cable came off a bit today after that rejection off 9750 resistance post NFP. Now back down at major support zone 9550 so see what happens here. I took a short on Euro this morning off the hourly pullback, finding resistance off the half prime and asian high, and a previous hourly resistance zone.

Taken out 35% to cover 2/3's of the risk and left stop up above the swing point. Looking to take some more off around 2900 if it gets there, and will then move my stop to break even.

 

[torero 10]

Very nice, steve. In with the down flow. I tend to be cautious on Monday, last night I watched the Tokyo open as it was going down, but wasn't sure if it was going to stag or not. I'm late for this move already. Next one for sure.

[steveshutts 10]

Very slow action on Euro. Figures out in 10 mins, so have now moved my stop to break even on remainder just in case we get some negative dollar data.

[torero 10]

Went long here. Breakout from consolidation since yesterday. Above 50% now, see if we can make it to 9700.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Morning guys,

 

Closed my Euro trade this morning, didn't look like it wanted to go any further. Currently long cable from 33 after the asian breakout and pullback to that 9615 support zone, which houses the 50% 240 fib.

Looking to scale some at 65, R1 and yesterdays high, lets see how this goes.

Anybody upto anything?

 

[steveshutts 10]

Can't see your image Torero but looks like we are thinking the same this morning! Nice one, lets hope this shifts on. Retail sales out at 11:00am, so hopefully will cover some by then.

[steveshutts 10]

1st target hit, 1/3 out for +32, will leave stop down at 9611 for now. Looking for 9700 area for next scale, will take out another 1/3 there and then trail the remainder, thats if it gets there.

[steveshutts 10]

Blimey Torero, just seen your chart, talk about identical trades!!

[steveshutts 10]

Price is stalling up here before 9700. Quite a resistance zone with a fib confluence and round number and previous resistance. Getting ready to take some more out in case it fails to push through.

 

 

[torero 10]

Looks like NY wants to take cable higher. Great trade Steve!

[steveshutts 10]

Cheers Torero, you still in this?

I took another 1/3 off at 79 at the break of the hourly inverted hammer. Has now pushed on but getting a bit of a fight up here at 97.

Have moved my stop to break even on remainder and will trail remaining 1/3 of my position behind the hourly. Would like to see a bust through this resistance and see price challenge the 9750 zone.

Still, a profitable trade now, so just see what develops.

[torero 10]

no, got out @ 9668 before the news on 11am although normally i would stay in. there were resistance ahead was near so I decided to close it out.

 

I'm watching the GBPJPY for a breakout here. They've been moving in unison up until now.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Well played on this mornings move Steve!

 

I see you've configured the 78.6 on your graphs

 

Yesterdays move up off (what is currently) the new weeks lows also sniffed a 78.6 from the recent short swing, which buffeted a Daily s&r zone.

 

Handy markers to keep tabs on huh? - particularly if they marry a hard based level etc

 

Swiss has also triggered a couple good opp's lately nudging that number!

 

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Well , i have taken a contra trend punt at 8685 off this 2B pattern off the round number rejection, looking to scale some at support at 55 if it gets there.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Thanks Anna.

Yeah, put those markers up thanks to you guys. Never had them on before but they definitely seem to attract some attention.

Price currently stalling at yesterdays high, now acting as support. Will be quick to pull this contra punt if i don't get any follow through. Still have a 1/3 left on my long, and will keep that stop down at 9633. That 50 zone could well act as a good support area, which may keep my long in play.

Cable is directionless at the moment, so all we can do is sit it out i suppose or play off these s+r zones?

 

Price has also sold off from this third touch of the down trend line on the 240 chart.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yeah, put those markers up thanks to you guys. Never had them on before but they definitely seem to attract some attention.

 

Cable is directionless at the moment, so all we can do is sit it out i suppose or play off these s+r zones?

 

 

Yeah, they're certainly worth keeping on the radar. We prefer to use them as price buffers a confluence zone in & around their vicinity.

 

I'd imagine the smart money is sidelined now until the UK Rates decision prints. Just in case they throw another curve ball onto the plate like last month. The UK economy is continuing to gather steam, so I guess the Bank bigwigs will be chewing the cud over the recent data.

 

We also got the G7 convening at the weekend, they won't be too eager to lump on big bets until the fog clears on that soiree.

[steveshutts 10]

Well scrapped that contra punt at BE, looks like we have a short term range setting up here so out, thats it for today.

Will leave my remaining long, see what happens tonight with Bernanke on the block.

[steveshutts 10]

Morning guys,

 

Nice tight asian range this morning, looking like a continuation range of this leg up, may see a challenge of 9750 this morning? Plenty of data out today so i am sure most will be sidelined to see these prints through, especially waiting for IRS tomorrow?

I just opted out of taking the low risk entry on cable, nice setup on the 5 min chart, but preferring to wait for price to confirm the move up before compounding this long trade.

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Price not wanting to push on through and i have been stopped out at 82 on my trailer from yesterday. Asian breakout south but not getting involved, will wait for the US prints at lunch time now. Very indecisive price action this morning = STAY OUT!

[torero 10]

Spotted this 35-50% area, amazing how it noticed these level. Especially the 50% was right at big 00. I've been looking back past price movements and sure enough there were movements in these levels. Wow! Thanks tex, for letting us in on this setup!

 

[steveshutts 10]

Morning Torero,

Looks like cable is putting pressure on the upside of this range this morning. I wonder if we will see someone shove this thing through this morning. I expect most will be waiting for the interest statement to be released so could be range bound until then.

Will there be a surprise hike again today? Who knows.

[Anonymous 11]

Distribution during the low volume time prior to London open. At 0200-0205 we get an Upthrust. The bar trades higher than the previous bar but closes on its low. The Professional money is trying to suck in weak holders on the long side.

 

Price then re-enters the Value Area (upper purple line to lower purple line). Now we have an 80% rule trade. 80% of the time that price exits the Value Area and then re-enters, it moves to the opposite side of the Value Area. Normally would want to see this close back inside value on the 30 with the next open also inside value, however here we have distribution in the background and a weakness in the form of an Upthrust.

 

Price trades all the way down to the opposite side of value and then down to S1.

[steveshutts 10]

IRS out in 10 mins. Price has really been pressuring this 9750 zone of late and if it breaks we should see a strong move up. Have to wait and see what happens at 12:00pm.