Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Sign in to follow this  
TheNegotiator

Crunch Point Trading

Recommended Posts

With the shenanigans going on in the EU summit today, I thought it pertinent to discuss trading before, but more importantly after highly anticipated news, economic releases or speeches. To qualify this I am talking about things which you can sense have the potential to be really big in the days leading up to the event.

 

Here are a few ideas off the top of my head.

 

Pros.

 

Before the release, there is often book balancing and is often fairly predictable in its manner.

 

After the release the market can really move.

 

Important price objectives can be met and important extremities formed.

 

Less noise and more market flow.

 

 

Cons.

 

Before it can sometimes be that the market is just flat.

 

If the release gets leaked early, you can be caught with you pants down.

 

Strong initial reactions to a release can frequently end up the wrong move to follow.

 

You can get in and be stopped before you're right.

 

Greed can be a problem.

 

 

Some considerations if you do want to trade it.

 

Do you trade it normally or would you adjust your strategy?

 

If you vary your size how would you do so?

 

What is the basis for your assessment of risk and therefore you stop placement?

 

Do you trade momentum, breakout, failed breakouts, fade important levels?

 

Do you need a good/fast news source?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me, I am more than happy to trade in the days leading up to the release. Depending on the market behaviour I may end up taking smaller profits per trade. After the release, I am far more comfortable trying to understand what is going on. My rationale is that if a release is going to carry forward a big significance, it's better for me to understand what is happening at the time so I can better trade the coming days than risk getting involved in an emotional rollercoaster. I believe that even if you manage to take 4 times what you'd make on a reasonable day, it's about what you do over 100, 200, 500, 1000 days and one great day means nothing in the long run. Actually that does remind me that a potential consequence of having a belting day is over-confidence. That's a very dangerous thing for most traders even if the p/l is looking sweet!!

 

Anyone else have a different take or strategy for these sorts of days? I know some guys make a living off trading solely in this type of market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Con.

 

If you are trading and your connection goes down, you could end up way offside before it comes back online(or can get through to your broker's trading desk). :puke:

Edited by TheNegotiator

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Playing the extremes of “crunch points” (instead of the breakouts, btw) has developed over the years to one of my favorite times to be trading – simply because it is exciting. I always aspired to be great at it, but back in the early days had a lot of white knuckle and adrenaline ‘side effects’ to deal with. It’s easy money if you can accept the short term heat. Keys are experience and never to be oversized. I liken it to being up on the stick in a old biplane using intuitive measures instead of normal trading which is like flying a jumbo jet with all kinds of precise instrumentation…

With practice you can get good at hitting at the market during the final surges in excursions.

 

My (quite unnecessary) 'mental' confidence is based on the stats that a high percentage of news releases and reports, etc. that have immediate wild excursion away from starting place return back near to where they started from within hours – with even higher freq. than in the old days. Haven’t ran the stats, but I also believe the excursion ranges are also not as extreme as they used to be...

... and related to this, I have gone offline during 'madness' ... because of these tendencies /stats, it's nothing to really worry about. If you have to, you can always overwhelm any remaining heat later with size - that is if you're not oversized to begin with...

 

 

 

Negoc8r, a compliment - you are a great poster and a super moderator too. Thanks.

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say fading extremes would be my best bet if I were to trade it and then scale out of a good chunk pretty quickly. Going with it can be a strong urge but can be dangerous too. Maybe I'll look at implementing a plan for the future. If I do though, I think I'd open a separate account to ring fence the risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the kind of moves which could've happened yesterday didn't materialise. However, it looks as though we might go for it today given overnight activity. Who knows. Anyway, early on yesterday, a very clear selloff did happen and it was fairly easy to get onboard. The "how much" question was more the issue!

 

But it goes to show that even if the actual event itself ends up not producing fireworks, the pre-event trading can be quite productive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.