YM Analysis

[TinGull 10]

Yesterday in the chat room someone had asked what might happen tomorrow (being today now). TPO counts shows sellers in favor of the win. Sure enough...now the YM is printing 44 below its close.

 

When more TPO's reside above the point of control we have the sellers in force driving price back down from the top.

The profile from yesterday is interesting because value took place almost completely under the Initial Balance. Same thing happened on 12/21 adn what happened then? The YM closed at 12512 on the 21st and opened up about 20 points lower to never see that opening price again and closed nearly 100 points lower. Interesting to see that. IF we were to open inside of value...what kind of range could be expected? Well...I'd say no matter what we could potentially see a 100+ point range day, but looking to be right around 100. !0 day ATR is showing just over 100.

 

How could you play it to capture a good part of the range? Let's see where the most likely candidates are, shall we?

 

When we have the first period (A period on my charts) setting the tone, we want to see what the B period will do. This consists of the Initial Balance. Notice that in the B period, we auctioned lower by a touch, but mostly ranged about 10 points either side of the open of that period. Then..we see C period open higher, but get rejected above B. This is an imbalance. A good trade location was right around that 510-513 area, which was also a weekly pivot and the previous days high. We see that from there, we auction much lower to the low of 440ish, which was the POC from the day prior.

 

Noticing these kinds of imbalances quickly helps you get great trade location.

 

Going to the upside...you see that E and F periods stalled at 438, both periods. When you see this type of ledge forming, and then the FAST rejection in the G period, we're heading up. If you placed your order at the POC, 442, you could place your stop around 434 and know if you got stopped, balance is being found in that area.

 

Points to watch for:

 

Resistance:

496

532

513

 

Support:

405 is a key level, big buyers sitting there

[MrPaul 10]

Wow, thanks for the analysis...impressive!

[TinGull 10]

Welcome Hope it helps.