Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

charlie626

GBP/CHF Very Interesting Around 3am EST

Recommended Posts

I've been tracking GBP/CHF for the month of December and seen it react in one direction or another starting at around 3am. I think this correlates to the 12 noon Swiss time bond yield announcements. I've seen this type of behaviour with the CHF currency for along time now but bother researching it. Was wondering if anyone is familiar with this currency and can confirm what causes it to move so much right at 3am EST? You see it happening in USD/CHF but definitely not to the degree it moves against GBP.

 

Thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For example, last night GBP/CHF started moving right before 3am EST at 1.47885 and within 7 hours reached 1.50000. I use STDEV (close, n=7) to let me know when the pair starts moving and when it crosses a certain STDEV threshold, I trade in the direction of the move. anything below the threshold is considered a false breakout (no matter how good it might look).

 

I'm watching the pair tonight. actually, I have an automated program that runs every 15 minutes, checks STDEV, and sends me a text message when it's crossed the STDEV threshold. I'll post my trade when I make it to (hopefully) get some feedback from the community.

 

I'm really interested to know if this is something that has only started happening or is characteristic of this pair/currency (i.e. CHF).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1/6/2011 2:43:50 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78270348

. You Bought GBP 500,000

, You Bought At 1.50295

, You Sold CHF 751,475

Confirmation #: 78270348

 

Error Description:

Rate: 1.50295

Deal Success: True

PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/5/2011 11:45:46 PM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,500000,-154.894671623296,775890,751475,1.502950,775890,0.00000,0.00000,S,500000,500000,,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charlie

 

I don't think 3am EST = 12 noon Swiss.

 

I look at European markets alot and I might I suggest that at 3:15am EST = 9am - 9:15am swiss time is when alot of the economic releases occur.

 

Hope that helps other significant time would be when LIBOR on EUROSWISS is released (but not that moves much).

 

regards

 

pp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charlie

 

3am EST does not = 12 noon Swiss time it is 9am swiss time and 9am or 9:15am tends to be the time of Macro economic releases in Swiss markets.

 

The other time to consider is when Libor is released 11am GMT (this can sometimes add some life) but not that the Euroswiss STIRS markets move much.

 

pp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are looking at the London Open.And its GBP that's what is moving units, not the Swissy. The Pound is quite a thinly traded currency and back when I was trading it, had quite a reputation for running stops. Every morning at the open it would find the stops in one direction, then the other, then decide what to do for the day which was usually a 100 pip directional move.So to answer your question, the open is where the most money changes hands and the Pound is easy to push around by the pros with big $$$.Congrats on finding a good strategy to trade it, but I don't think it's CHF thats doing the work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

awesome information! that makes alot of sense about the stops and the timing coinciding with the market opening. i'll add GBP to the watch list.

 

thanks PP and BW!!!

 

ps: i use the 15-min interval for my stdev. i inadvertently didn't include the interval in my previous post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive.

 

here's deal confirmation:

 

 

1/10/2011 3:22:43 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78403234

. You Sold GBP 500,000

, You Sold At 1.49735

, You Bought CHF 748,675

Confirmation #: 78403234

 

Error Description:

Rate: 1.49735

Deal Success: True

PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/10/2011 12:24:43 AM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,-500000,-155.585520174256,776745,-748675,1.497350,-776745,0.00000,0.00000,B,500000,500000,,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are looking at the London Open.And its GBP that's what is moving units, not the Swissy...I don't think it's CHF thats doing the work.

 

I too have been following BOTH pairs and agree it IS the GBP. Thanx Brookwood, for the confirmation of my modest observation.

BTW: if you don't mind, would you share why you stopped trading GBP/USD??

 

Thanx again...Tomaz M.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive.

 

Charlie, I will be keeping an eye to your posts here regarding this set-up as it looks good so far. Just might "borrow" it or parts of it; if you don't mind.

 

Thanx for sharing this info with us.

 

Tomaz M.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Everyone,

 

Looks like to me that 1.5400 is a ceiling for this pair. I've seen it try to break 1.5400 with no momentum. Lots of sellers there keeping it down. I figure it's been long enough and the pair is overbought. I'm looking for a swing trade ratcheting my stop along the way. At the moment, I put my stop at 1.5400 so it's a free trade. At 3:09am EST, current rate is 1.5350. Here's my trade confirmation:

 

Deal Date, Confirmation #, Buy/Sell, Pair, Contract Rate, Deal Rate

1/21/2011 1:33:01 AM 8123434 Sell GBP/CHF -40,000.00 1.54000

 

I'll keep y'all posted and how it all ends up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... if you don't mind, would you share why you stopped trading GBP/USD??...

One, I stopped trading retail forex altogether. If I trade currencies at all now it is on the futures exchange.

Two, I found some instruments that better suit my trading style and time zone- EST.

Cheers,

BW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long ago I wrote a detailed post on another forum about this subject but I can't find it.

However I did dig this up from my archives. Its a PDF about trading the London Open reprinted from Currency Trader magazine. Kathy Lien also discusses this strategy in "Day Trading the Currency Market"

Cheers,

BW

BigBenStrategy.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank BW for that PDF! It seems to still be relevant given that it was written back in 2004. I like the name too - Big Ben Strategy. What I've seen as of late is that in a nice GBP trending market, the setups are very clear. I think during this last GBP/CHF 1.5400 resistance level the market conviction wasn't as clear or as sustained which makes sense considering that it was a significant support level in the past. I'm interested to see how an updated (my own) version of this Big Ben Strategy will look. Give me a few days and i'll see what i can come up with myself. hopefully it's interesting enough to post...

 

Long ago I wrote a detailed post on another forum about this subject but I can't find it.

However I did dig this up from my archives. Its a PDF about trading the London Open reprinted from Currency Trader magazine. Kathy Lien also discusses this strategy in "Day Trading the Currency Market"

Cheers,

BW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great speech by Governor King on January 25th. Here's the link if anyone is interested in starting a conversation on it. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2011/speech471.pdf He was talking about the domestic impact of inflation on how the monetary policy plays a role in the overall State's economic health.

 

FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them.

 

good luck all!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them.

 

good luck all!

 

That would be great Charlie. Are you a news Trader? Could you tell us a little about your strat/system?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.