Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

retinoid

Would This System Make Sense?

Recommended Posts

Say I have a 5,000 dollar account balance. I have a system that literally gives me a 90% chance of getting .5 pts (but only .5pts). I am seeking to get the bigger moves but the .5pts is to give me cushion. I use other highs for stops so they are roughly 1 point away. Does it make sense to trade 5 contracts, sell 3 of them when I get .5pts (for the cushion on the other 2 contracts) and keep the other 2 in for larger point moves? I have around a 10% chance of getting stopped out with a 1-1.5pt loss on ALL 5 contracts, a 90% chance of at least getting .5pts per contract.

 

I was thinking of just scalping, but then I would miss larger moves and I would be risking 1-1.5 pts for ever .5 point. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense because god forbid it is only an 80% success rate, that would wipe out like 2-3pts if I did it ten times and I would make a net of like 2 points in the day with 10 trades. It just seems bleh. That is why I am trying to keep contracts in longer (like 2 contracts) but still scalp to cushion the larger potential for loss with keeping contracts in longer.

 

Futures are much more complicated and tricky than stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did you backtest your system to know that it gives you 90% of 0.5pts winners vs 10% 1pt (or 1.5pt) losers? If yes, how many trades did your backtest (out of sample) include? A few hundred? If yes, then you can just as easily backtest partial exits. But if your current system is REALLY 90% successful it gives you an average 3.5 pts profit on 10 trades (per contract), which coupled with a high(er) frequency of trades would create a beautifully smooth equity curve. One experience I have with testing various exits, partial exits etc. is that unless you ADD a new edge (idea) to your existing system, its results won't improve significantly by just fiddling around with partial exits vs single entry exit etc. In any case, if you do have a system that does what you say, you are good to go and milk it as much as possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you basic system is profitable stick with it to trade whle at the same time analyse whether leaving the contracts on the table add to or detract from the profit.

 

Myself I woudl stick with what works and makes profits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Juro said most of what I would tell you. All I can add is that with this or any system when you test different exits you are testing different systems. Each must stand on its own. I know you are not saying this, but I see all the time stupid things like trade 5 and exit 1 at $50 to cover costs. Well that $50 Profit Objective better stand on its own as a profitable system or its just a drag on performance. The vast majority of the time ideas like this, or the breakeven stop (perhaps worst of all), sound so intuitively correct but are dead wrong when you actually crunch the numbers.

 

I am glad to see you are not being hampered by thoughts that your RR "must" be something. Even though your RR is inverted to most systems it doesn't mean is will not work.

 

Lastly I would add the more time you are in the market with a position the more tax on mental capital. If it were me I'd keep paying myself and then wait for the next trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I may have quite a bit to add to you scenario....been trading for 18 years and have been training traders for about half of that time. Private Message me to about this "system" that you speak of as a consistent 90% winner scenario at any level is almost unheard of. Is this your system or someone trying to sell you on it? Either way, contact me and I will be happy to assist you in any way that I can. We are all working together for the better good.....at least I am!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Say I have a 5,000 dollar account balance. I have a system that literally gives me a 90% chance of getting .5 pts (but only .5pts). I am seeking to get the bigger moves but the .5pts is to give me cushion. I use other highs for stops so they are roughly 1 point away. Does it make sense to trade 5 contracts, sell 3 of them when I get .5pts (for the cushion on the other 2 contracts) and keep the other 2 in for larger point moves? I have around a 10% chance of getting stopped out with a 1-1.5pt loss on ALL 5 contracts, a 90% chance of at least getting .5pts per contract.

 

I was thinking of just scalping, but then I would miss larger moves and I would be risking 1-1.5 pts for ever .5 point. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense because god forbid it is only an 80% success rate, that would wipe out like 2-3pts if I did it ten times and I would make a net of like 2 points in the day with 10 trades. It just seems bleh. That is why I am trying to keep contracts in longer (like 2 contracts) but still scalp to cushion the larger potential for loss with keeping contracts in longer.

 

Futures are much more complicated and tricky than stocks.

 

As you described the system I do not think it makes sense.

 

1. Even IF (and it's a big IF) you have a 90% win rate, you can still get 2, 3 or more Stops in a row. IF you trade 5 contracts (ES) with a 6 tick stop then you're going to lose (for each losing trade) $375 +$25 commission plus slippage which could be 1 (or more) tick or $62.50. That is a $462 hit for just 1 stop loss or ALMOST 10% of your account.

 

Get 2 losers in a row and you will be mentally challenged to take the next trade.

 

Your position sizing is WAY off for any kind of reasonable risk.

 

Take your setup and get hit with a LOSING NEWS SPIKE and watch your account go down the drain.

 

I have scalped the ES for years and slowly I am changing my tactics to take fewer trades and let them run much longer. Add to a winner when another setup occurs while it's moving for you. Start SMALL... let them build

 

That's my opinion anyway.

Edited by bakrob99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Say I have a 5,000 dollar account balance. I have a system that literally gives me a 90% chance of getting .5 pts (but only .5pts). I am seeking to get the bigger moves but the .5pts is to give me cushion. I use other highs for stops so they are roughly 1 point away. Does it make sense to trade 5 contracts, sell 3 of them when I get .5pts (for the cushion on the other 2 contracts) and keep the other 2 in for larger point moves? I have around a 10% chance of getting stopped out with a 1-1.5pt loss on ALL 5 contracts, a 90% chance of at least getting .5pts per contract.

 

I was thinking of just scalping, but then I would miss larger moves and I would be risking 1-1.5 pts for ever .5 point. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense because god forbid it is only an 80% success rate, that would wipe out like 2-3pts if I did it ten times and I would make a net of like 2 points in the day with 10 trades. It just seems bleh. That is why I am trying to keep contracts in longer (like 2 contracts) but still scalp to cushion the larger potential for loss with keeping contracts in longer.

 

Futures are much more complicated and tricky than stocks.

 

Honestly, No. Risk versus Reward ratio way off. The correct minimum ratio should be 1:1 or 1:2 or greater. As Per your intention to take 3 for leverage on 2 remaining strategy, you need at least 1:1 RR ratio. I learn this from a retired Trader from my hometown a few years ago that RR ratio is the most common misunderstood trading rule by many. :2c:

I think you may find him in one of the mIR's othernet chat room during ES day trading session.

Edited by wow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RR is dependant on the type of system you are using and what you are trying to maximize. You can certainly have good workable systems that run less then 1:1 RR. These systems as a general rule will not maximize dollar profit, but will often provide best opportunity to keep drawdowns low, and provide high accuracy.

 

I base this on my hands on experience with testing systems. Very often what we feel is intuitively correct or is a market cliche does not hold up the scrutiny of empirical testing. RR paricularly can go either way especially when you are not optimizing for largest P/L.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... You can certainly have good workable systems that run less then 1:1 RR... .

 

I used to think this too... but no longer do. I have kept statistics on my actual entries for years and reviewing them shows/reveals that the winning trades which I take go for quite a distance and easily provide 12 ticks Best Exit for the ES while having a stop requirement of 6 or even fewer ticks.

 

Do the math and you'll discover that the money is in Staying in the trade when its a winner and getting out when it's not.

 

Forget about RR mumbo jumbo ... it's common sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I used to think this too... but no longer do. I have kept statistics on my actual entries for years and reviewing them shows/reveals that the winning trades which I take go for quite a distance and easily provide 12 ticks Best Exit for the ES while having a stop requirement of 6 or even fewer ticks.

 

Do the math and you'll discover that the money is in Staying in the trade when its a winner and getting out when it's not.

 

Forget about RR mumbo jumbo ... it's common sense.

 

I think you are right in the sense you are talking about the what the thread was talking about .... scalping and day trading and probably discretionary at that. I was speaking more to systems that involve more then a few ticks. I should have paid more attention to what the thread was.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No problem. I have done quite a bit of automated strategy development and trading on Tradestation and I have yet to find a system which enters or exits as well as a discretionary trader following a set of proven rules.

 

Of course - automation allows more markets to be traded and risk spread out ... just need to be able to handle the drawdowns. I can't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Be aware that systems that only take a couple of ticks often trade worse than they test (depending how you test them). Make sure you are testing by buying at ask and selling at bid or if the system uses limits you really need to make sure price trades through your entry/exit.

 

Work out the risk of ruin, run monte carlo simulations and decide for yourself if the system 'makes sense'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do the math, its called expectancy,

 

 

(90%*.5) per contract= .45/contract

(10%*1.5)*all contracts=.15 Loss per contract

the difference is your expectancy

 

so you will average .3pts per every contract

 

Now, this is obvious and I am sure many on here already know this, but make sure that you check this across at least 1000 trades, and thats pretty low but if your aggressive its a pretty good measure

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.