Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

throughthemud

FX Ellioticians

Recommended Posts

I entered on the downside. I'm figuring that a good explanation for why the C wave looks like it does is this is actually just wave iv (circle) of 1 instead of a-b-c of 2 like VILLAFILLER and I we're looking at earlier. we'll have to see how this plays out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes you did answer one question but what about the other two far more important questions?

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The End of Wave A chart is the main chart i'm using ---- Ive already explained that early on in the post above

 

The End of Wave 3 charts is only my alternate count

 

--------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Target --- see these charts below

 

i had explained that explained that i'm trading the End Wave A low is my main chart with 4510 as target

 

and i explained that the End of Wave 3 chart was my alternate count

 

I responded to you right away ,,,,,, after you made your post

---------------------------------------------------------- ------------- -----------------------

Edited by marketwavez

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy New Year TTM & All,

 

As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:)

 

Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning.

 

Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear

 

VR

impulse4jan.thumb.gif.ad31545cf340c3d09ab567ee95062f3b.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Marketwavez,

Please start your own thread and stop posting in this one since you won't provide explanation or answer criticism. I can only see your posts harming people interested in the wave principle. This thread is about sharing and learning from each other not seeing how many numbers you can fit on a chart or how fast you can post charts.

 

throughthemud

 

i have been in this forum for 1 day ----

 

 

i searched this forum for a Elliott-Wave thread to be a part of

 

and i had found only 2 threads pertaining to Elliott Waves

yours which is focused on FX the other was focused on Stocks

 

so naturally being a Forex trader I decided to post in your thread

 

 

========================== =========================== =====================

now you are asking me to leave ,,,,,, because you are saying wont provide explanation to your questions ,,,,,

 

but the truth of the matter is i did immediately responded to your questions

( meanwhile all of a sudden you are now saying i did answre one of them )

 

so i must respect you ........ it's your thread after all

 

-------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------------

Edited by marketwavez

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Happy New Year TTM & All,

 

As per my pre-Xmas count I shorted €/$ @ 14410 the Monday after Xmas but got stopped out flat and couldn't see an obvious count after that so spent the time with the kids:)

 

Yesterday I had a 5-count up but the overnight rally made me re-label it this morning.

 

Looking for an obvious 3-wave correction to go long but doing nothing unless it's really clear

 

VR

 

Hi,

 

If the recent high holds (my b) then I like 14372 for a 100pt long trade, targeting above the 5 @14483 - will be looking for a momentum confirmation and a bounce before entering

 

50% retracement of yesterday's 5-wave rally

100% of a

previous S&R level

 

VR

impulse4jan.thumb.gif.4d8e759f2858f2c3be00a374b57b285e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i have been in this forum for 1 day ----

 

 

i searched this forum for a Elliott-Wave thread to be a part of

 

and i had found only 2 threads pertaining to Elliott Waves

yours which is focused on FX the other was focused on Stocks

 

so naturally being a Forex trader I decided to post in your thread

 

Hi there, marketwavez,

 

I have a thread here at TL focused mostly on trading spot forex and currency futures. I do a little Elliot Wave myself, and you if you wish for a place to post your counts I'd welcome you in my thread.

 

You can find it here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f208/reading-charts-real-time-6151.html

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're at a critical juncture here. My primary wave count puts us at the beginning of wave (iii) of c (circle) and my alternate puts us at wave (ii) or v (circle). We'll know today which one was correct. I'm not feeling much more confident either way but the things I've talked about before such as the rsi-7 on the daily seem to suggest a larger rise is on the way. Also the last wave had the look of a second wave. Any drop below 1.4267 would indicate my alternate count was correct. Minimum target for wave (iii) of c (circle) would be about 1.4620.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning,

 

My idea got nixed pretty quickly last night :roll eyes:

 

Going to have to wait out for the counts to resolve but it's tempting to take a cheap long down here if we see a retest of the support - might think about it if there's a divergence.

 

VR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right...going to stick my neck out again for everyone's consideration...

 

Should my pre-holidays assumption of a € bottom at 14216 being a 3-wave (possibly a 5) down be correct & monday's rally was actually a C then I have a possible level at 14439

 

Today's action looks to be 3 waves with iv of c in play at the moment

14439 ...

78.6% retracement of yesterday's drop

100% of my a wave today off b

previous resistance

 

As usual, for me, I'll be looking for momentum confirmation & ideally a divergence - clearly a break of 14485 will negate this.

 

VR

correct6jan.gif.392946526aa638fa2d06e61036c60b0b.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I definitely agree with this being wave iv (circle). As you noted the initial rise was 3 waves so this seems to negate the possibility of a larger rise. Wave c of (ii) of v (circle) appears to have ended and we're at the beginning of a wave 3 downward.

 

Initial target for wave (iii) of v (circle)

1.4109

 

Initial target for wave v (circle)

via trendline: ~1.3900 (I don't believe it will actually reach that level)

via fib wave 1 = 5: ~1.4168 (I have a hard time believing it will not surpass this level)

eur01-06.thumb.PNG.f70b6ff672a751e0544c65be48854c81.PNG

Edited by throughthemud
added targets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Non-farm payrolls this morning. Normally it's a good day but I'm lacking confidence in my position so I'm deleveraging down to a small position. Not seeing a full movement yesterday lowered my confidence in the short position. Dynamic resistance off the lows seems to be holding everything up. Looking at usd index also made things look more murky. Today should clear everything up though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are charts of my primary and alternate counts. Both call for an upward movement but my primary count calls for a short upward movement ending by about 1.4330 or a little higher and my alternate calls for a very large upward movement in a third of a third wave. I switched to a long position at about 1.4300 and I will place a stop right above that once the market moves higher. My current stop is at 1.4280. I'm hoping my alternate count is correct. The RSI on the hourly and 4 hour seems to point that way too but not strongly enough for very high confidence.

eur01-08pri.PNG.6a50b61e1212686218a8226ac1d0a045.PNG

eur01-08alt.PNG.d626743eb449874ae09e0da21a62cb8f.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I got in at 1.4272 fully leveraged. My last two trades were losers but this made up for many times over. I just kept feeling more and more confident that it had to go up and once it passes 1.4335 I was 100% confident of where it was going

 

Very nice work!...Good end to the week

Non-farm cost me 100pts but still got out with a reasonable profit...shutting down now...have a good one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my chart of Minor degree wave pattern. This is my primary forecast. The wave (iii) and (v) of c (circle) highs are at areas of strong support going as far back as late 2007. We'll have to wait and see how and if wave (iii) forms before I can refine these targets. I will post my alternate count later.

euro01-09-10minorforecast.thumb.PNG.3d90dea9ea750d2fb99ac0336dc20bfd.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi,

 

My primary read has a 3-wave breakdown from the 26th November $ turn...though will be open to this being a complete 5

 

At the moment my primary count of an ABC 4th wave correction hasn't been negated on my plan (though it's on pretty shaky ground - I didn't like the short duration of the C & Friday afternoon's action could still be a i & ii of 3 of 5 while 14448 holds).

 

I'm hoping that the asian session will help with the count one way or another...

 

...a break of 14448 (and subsequent 14485) will clarify that this is a larger C-wave move up. Although, I'm not all that comfortable with an extended 5-wave (a break of 14500 will be extended on both price and time based on wave A).

 

- If we see that then I will be paying close attention to 14585 for a possible short

  1. Existing support & resistance
  2. 38.2% of the 1-3 breakdown
  3. 61.8% of wave 3
  4. 162% of TTM's wave 1 off Friday's low

 

to try and pick up a buy @14500 to what I see as a good level for the short into wave 5 (possibly a 3, if the move down to 14216 was indeed a complete 5) at 14670

  1. Existing support & resistance level
  2. The level of Wave 1 12/09/09
  3. 50% of the 1-3 breakdown
  4. 162% of A off B (shaky for a 5-3-5 correction, but C would be extended)
  5. 78.6% of wave 3

 

On the other hand, if price fails to break 14448 and significantly overlaps back into Friday's territory I'll start to think that I got squeezed out of my 14439 short cheaply :)

 

Watch this space for me to have to eat my words on these levels!

 

VR

turningpoint11jan.thumb.jpg.d5ad9e4c3609e04bc475202c8396d631.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The chart I attached is the only alternate count I see though it is close to your primary count. I think this wave 4 has been going on too long to still be part of the wave structure you're showing. That's why I'm calling it the 3rd and 5th waves of the entire movement since the 26th of November. This being a 2nd wave I don't have much of a problem with an extended wave C.

 

I agree with the levels you have identified. The resistance at 1.4585 that you were looking at I figure to be a likely stopping point for wave iii of (iii) of c (circle). At most I think it would be the end of wave (iii) and be surpassed by wave (v) but time will tell I suppose. We won't have to worry about it if my primary count turns out to be wrong.

eur01-10-10alt.thumb.PNG.fb7d28a661ddf04dad702f9e20f762ab.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you count wave (i) of c (circle) as complete at 10:00 on 01/04 with a high of 1.4455 and the next thrust up as being wave b of (w) then the 1.618 fib level for wave (iii) puts us at 1.4583. Just some more fuel for the fire on that resistance level you brought up. Sorry I can't take a screenshot to show a chart for some reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was already crashed out by the time Asia opened (3 mnth old twins to help with)...but in the spirit of collaboration, this morning I bot a cheap 10pt stop @ 14485 on the test of your wave one resistance turned support level - working well for me at the moment, thanks - I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have labeled last week a 1, 2 without this discussion.

 

If we see new highs past 14533 I'll move to break even and look to 80/85 for a possible turn.

 

VR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $ARRY Array Technologies stock great day off the 10.96 double support area, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?ARRY
    • $MSFT Microsoft stock back up top of the range, breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?MSFT
    • GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin stock top of range breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?GBTC
    • $FSLR First Solar stock nice bull flag breakout, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?FSLR
    • Date: 22nd May 2024. UK Inflation Drop Boosts GBP, But Analysts See Correction Signals. The NASDAQ forms its 5th bullish wave resulting in the index trading 8% higher this month alone. Investors are waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings report. The market awaits the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes for further indications on the potential rate adjustments. The US Dollar Index declines to a 7-week low, but can tonight’s Meeting Minutes change the trend? Read below what economists are predicting. UK inflation declines from 3.2% to 2.3% in its largest drop since December 2023. The Pound increases as the inflation rate did not decline to 2.1% as previously GBPUSD – UK Inflation Drops But Does Not Meet Previous Expectations! The GBPUSD is trading 0.30% higher after the release of April’s UK inflation figures. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are the worst performing currencies of the day. Traders looking to speculate a rising Pound may benefit from these weakening currencies. The GBPJPY is trading 0.47% higher so far. However, investors should be cautious of any change in price action as the next session (European Market) opens. The UK’s inflation figure fell from 3.2% to 2.3% which is the largest drop in 2024 so far and brings the Bank of England closer to its target. This would normally pressure the currency, but there are some factors which have triggered a bullish Pound. This includes the Core Consumer Price Index which fell from 4.2% to 3.9% instead of falling to 3.6% which were the previous expectations. Also, certain sectors did not see a decline in inflation in April, which is a continued concern. For these reasons, investors have increased their exposure to the Pound, supporting the currency. Also, economists are advising that the weakening inflation rate can increase investment demand which also further supports the country’s economy and subsequently the currency. Furthermore, investors will also need to take into consideration the price condition of the US Dollar individually. Dollar traders will be focusing on tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Meeting Minutes. The market will particularly be looking for clarity on how many adjustments are likely in 2024, if any at all. In addition to this, if an adjustment is likely in July, September or later in the year. If the report indicates less cuts and a delay, the US Dollar potentially can witness further demand and a change in trend. This is something which was particularly seen in April 2024. The price action of the GBPUSD is forming a bullish trend and most trend-based indicators are signalling a higher price. However, there are signs that the price may correct back to the previous range. For example, on the 4-Hour chart the price is witnessing a divergence signal. in addition to this, the price is also trading at a significant resistance level from November, December and January. Though, for the resistance level to become active, the Dollar will likely require support from the upcoming Meeting Minutes. In the short term, sell signals are likely to materialize after crossing 1.27400 and 1.27268.   USA100 – Bullish Trend, But Investor Focus On Meeting Minutes & NVIDIA Earnings The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price as the US Open was approaching, however, the price momentum quickly changed when US investors started trading. The index rose 0.30% by the end of day and was the best performing US index. During the US Session 62.5% of stocks holding a weight of more than 1.00% rose while 37.5% fell. The main price drivers which supported the upward price movement were Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, NVIDIA and Netflix. Investors will closely be monitoring the upcoming earnings report for NVIDIA, but also the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. A more restrictive monetary policy can pressure the stock market, but the level of pressure and downward price movement will also depend on the results of NVIDIA’s earnings. Additionally, shareholders will also focus on Intuit’s Quarterly Earnings Report tomorrow evening, but this will have a lesser effect compared to NVIDIA. A concern for intraday traders is the decline in indices around the world in markets which are currently open. For example, the DAX, FTSE100, CAC and Nikkei225 are all trading lower. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond Yields are trading 0.0027% higher which is additional pressure on equities. Nonetheless, technical analysis in the medium to longer term continue to point to a continued upward trend. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.