Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, jfw215 said:

GU closed for -1R. It made it to 2.8R but not quite the 3R. There was also a EU long trade that happened about 4:15am EST. FOMC is over now so let's see if we can get a nice trend setup today.

 

Correction: the GU made it to 45 out of a 49 tick target. It was a 2.5R full target, not 3R. The EU long trade was 7:15am EST. I will refrain from getting up even earlier with the goal of not missing the next one. I notice after each trade, the mind, with the desire of wanting to experience a win, subtly pushes me to deviate from trading plan. My main concern with this set of 20 trades is build a greater sense of consistency in my execution and self trust. I realized the outcome of each individual trade absolutely does not matter. If I started to care about it, I am assuming that somehow I am responsible for the market's movement, which I am not. I am only responsible for following my trading plan, which can be adjusted after the 20 trades based on the stats I collect. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I took this limit long on the retest of the earlier 123 and support area. Target is near top of the zone. I notice that my target needs to be more mechanical in the sense that I may be influence to have a more/less aggressive target based on the results of the last trade. I have collected some modifications for the next batch of trades. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 5.53.18 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 6.01.31 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Came back to check on price after an hour of meditation, EU came within 3 ticks of target... Fascinating the ego brings up the story of betrayal, as if the market was out there to get me. I then reminded myself cool, this trade went over 2R. Even better yet, I acted consistently with executing my trading plan! Let the market do its thing. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 8.05.04 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/22/2019 at 6:05 PM, jfw215 said:

EU is still trading in a range. I'm heading out of town tonight and won't be back until Sunday evening. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 6.03.44 PM.png

That trade ended up with -1R. I missed a long and short setup over the last 2 days while out of town. I am stalking a long setup right now. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-26 at 7.24.16 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stopped for -1. There was an early stop that I could take if the plan allowed me to trail stop. I am noticing emotions of disappointment showing up for me. A recurring pattern: I try to avoid feeling disappointment -> I take action -> then I interpret the action from the lens of disappointment -> I feel disappointed with the outcome. Tho it is not a self fulfilling prophecy, it sure feels as it is. I am recently read Letting Go by David Hawkins and it has reminded me of so many emotional blindspots I have. Time for a walk on the beach and let go of the emotions that are arising. The biggest take away from reading this entire thread is recognizing self compassion, allowing myself to make mistakes and learn, not making myself feel wrong, and keep taking swings with gratitude is key.

Screen Shot 2019-08-27 at 9.44.42 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Taking full responsibility for my wellbeing, I did a round of EFT tapping around disappointment. At the end of the session, he mentions to give up "pre-arranged upsets". It's ilke I take a subpar trade, and I pre-determine, if this sub-par trade doesn't work, then I will feel upset. That is how the self-fulfilling prophecy works. I try to avoid a feeling -> I designate what must happen (outside of my control) so that this feeling will or will not be triggered -> the pre-arranged upset scenario occurs (which would have happened even if I did not define it as such, so it is totally a neutral event) -> I feel the feeling I tried to avoid. Bingo. I give this whole gambit up. I give up the right to make myself upset if my expectations are not met. Instead, I choose to ask what can I learn from it. In this case, remembering, all trade outcomes are random and give up the pre-arranged upsets for random outcome. 

I took the trade because I had an expectation that I should be taking trades. I should also be taking winning trades. I give up any expectations that I should be able to catch the next trade. Maybe I will maybe I won’t. I give up these expectations.  

 

Edited by jfw215

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The UJ long was cancelled. 

Currently stalking GU short. This morning was very slow. I found an interesting quote from Thales as I read through my notes from this log:

"I remember the palpable feeling of change that came over me as I evolved from "looking for a trade" to "waiting for the trade to come to me." When I do make a mistake, I can almost always attribute it to an impatience on my part to trade and thus forcing myself to take a position rather than simply waiting to hear from the market itself. "

I noticed I would be looking for trades instead of waiting for them to come to me. The idea here is an "pre-arranged upset"/expectation that I am here, I should be doing something to make money. I am letting that go.

Thales also talks about the danger of "filtering" for trades. The mind wants to be right and thus believes by filtering certain looks of the bars, it can filter out the losers and catch the winners. I have been doing that my entire decade long search for the grail. I see that this is doomed because the success of a trade cannot be determined. Furthermore, PA can create the H/L/LH or L/H/HL entry criteria shown on 1min or 15min bars. A 123 that occurred fast on the 1min would not even show up on the 15min. The key is to look for them with the right context. I would like to be able to describe this illusive context in greater detail as this journey continues.

Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 7.31.34 AM.png

Edited by jfw215

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GU update. Not looking good, it made it to .95R and came back and a 123 short. I am not touching this. So far this exercise has been challenging. 4/7 trades made it to 1R or more. 1 made it to .95R. 2 made .1R. If I could trail stop initially, worst trade would have been for less than 1/2R loss. Since my targets were all very big with stop or target. I have taken loss on every trade. I will continue to finish this set of exercises with the intention of rewarding myself for consistent action. Next round, I will aim for the 1R exit only. The one after that, I will aim for 1R plus pull cord if it doesn't take off. One step at a time.

Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 12.06.14 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GU was stopped out last night. Stalking EU long this morning. I woke up with Thales saying that I am here to wait for trades to come to me, not to look for them. Staying patient.

Screen Shot 2019-08-29 at 5.38.18 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since I'm already long EU, I can't short UJ. Here's setup on UJ. I don't particularly like this setup but hey, I'm not here to guess which ones will work.

Screen Shot 2019-08-29 at 5.49.47 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, jfw215 said:

EU stopped. That was quick. 

I would like to think, if I could have pulled ripcord, here's what I would have done.

Screen Shot 2019-08-29 at 6.05.49 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I did not take this trade because it's at R. I am starting to feel like there's a missing piece in my trading. When I did the exercise of marking H's and L's on the 15min chart without S/R I would never think in countertrend terms. I would wait for PA to tell me the trend is changing or has changed. However, when I add the S/R lines, it's almost like that I lose this sense of context and I just look to buy S or sell R. This doesn't work when the context is saying buy R because price is making HHs and HLs. Here's a UJ buy R example. I don't know which way it will go but I don't see why this trade isn't valid.

Screen Shot 2019-08-29 at 6.49.50 AM.png

Edited by jfw215

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and here's the ripcord on the UJ if I did go long. I believe the right approach is not to say, oh this trade didn't work, therefore I should not take this trade anymore. Rather it is accepting that I don't know what will happen, what I will do is therefore take trades that stand out to me that falls within my trading plan and than manage the risk tight while allowing it to run. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-29 at 7.01.47 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • #analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading The #GBPUSD is trading at 1.2410 due to no positive Brexit developments and an on-going Parliament deadlock at the UK. The #UK #PM Boris Johnson’s Luxembourg visit failed to provide any key updates. The EU President criticized the Tory leaders’ depth of details while British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab reiterated the PM”s pledge to leave on October 31 and also passing the bucket of criticism back to the EU. The #USD stays on the front foot as the recent rise in #safe-haven demand, mainly due to the attacks of Saudi Arabia, joins hands with optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks, up for early October. While the absence of data, except the US Industrial Production for August, is likely in support of carrying the previous move forward, any positive to the UK PM during the first day of hearings at the UK’s Supreme court could help the Cable recover some of its latest losses. #TechnicalAnalysis Unless providing a daily closing beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) level near 1.2510, the quote is less likely to rise towards mid-July highs surrounding 1.2580, which in turn highlights the importance of 1.2380 and 50-DMA level of 1.2280 during further declines.  
    • Another Best Broker award for HotForex! Dear Client, We are thrilled to announce that International Finance Awards has named HotForex the Best Forex & Commodities Broker in Latin America! A HotForex spokesman said: “This new award is an excellent addition to our 25+ existing awards and demonstrates our continued success in establishing ourselves as a market leader with global reach, committed to providing our clients with the best possible client-centric trading experience.” Thank you for all your support, and for choosing us as your broker of choice! Kind regards, The HotForex Team
    • #WeekAhead  #forex  #news  #followme  #socialtrading Hey friends! Happy new week. Here are the data highlights for this week: (GMT+8) Monday: 10:00      Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales     Tuesday: 09:30   RBA Meeting Minutes 17:00     German ZEW economic sentiment and 21:15     US industrial production   Wednesday 16:30     UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 20:30     Canada BoC CPI   Thursday: 02:00   US FOMC Economic Projections 02:00   US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement REPORT 02:00   US Fed Interest Rate Decision 02:30   US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH 06:45   AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2) 09:30   AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug) 09:30   AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug) 10:00   JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 10:00   JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT 14:00   JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH 19:00   UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility 19:00   UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 19:00   UK BoE MPC Vote Hike 19:00   UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT 19:00   UK BoE MPC Vote Cut 19:00   UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged   Friday: 20:30   Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)   #FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.     The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ's disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.
    • Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Brazilian Real COT Change (52W) / C - 54%, LS – 54% / FTG Score / D -24,1, W -36,7, M -25,9 / All major cot signals are indicating that we have a good chance to see the market to rally. Wheat (Minn.) COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -25.7, W -31.3, M -29.7/ All time cot extremes are always highly valued, but we should be careful, since history has proven that we can be in such a place for a long time before we see the major trend change… Nevertheless we should be prepared to see Wheat go higher. Sugar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -28.6, W 26.4, M -45.2 / Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts FOREX Trading Futures Trading
    • Date : 16th September 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th September 2019.Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as four of the major Central banks will announce their rate decision, i.e. Fed, BoJ, SNB and BoE. There is a lot of interest in seeing whether BoJ will follow the Fed’s steps next week in cutting rates. Monday – 16 September 2019   Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have risen, at 5.2% y/y in August from 4.8% y/y last month. A slightly positive reading is also expected in the Retail Sales figure at 7.9% from 7.6%. Tuesday – 17 September 2019   Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for September is projected at -38.0, from the lowest level since 2011 at -44.1 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The ZEW is a pretty clear indication that investors are gearing up for a much higher risk of a global recession, which ties in with developments in global bond yields and the marked flattening of curves. Wednesday – 18 September 2019   Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be more underwhelming than the July data, at 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, with a monthly rise up to 0.5% m/m. Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final reading of inflation is expected to have held steady at 1.0% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, with an increase in the monthly number at 0.2%m/m from -0.5%m/m. Lower energy price inflation keep a lid on the overall number meanwhile as CPI excluding energy moved up to 1.2% from 1.1% y/y last month. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The August CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, even as the Fed and ECB add stimulus. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 1.7% y/y pace in August, below the 2.0% last month. Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) – The August’s jobs data did little to alter the market’s expectations for a 25bp rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. Based on Powell’s latest comments, the Fed is very committed to a symmetric 2% inflation goal, hence given low inflation, interest rates will remain low. That leaves very little room to cut rates further. The Fed is not forecasting or expecting a US recession, nor a global downturn, said Powell. The fact that the chair doesn’t seem too concerned about a recession in the States, or the world, suggests the FOMC is not going to be aggressive easing policy. Thursday – 19 September 2019   Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 02:00) – The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank is expected to signal once again its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. The BoJ pledged to keep an eye on the output gap, but for now at least it seems the bank is seeing the risks as coming mainly from the outside. Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB kept policy on hold at the June council meeting. The Libor target was replaced with a key policy rate, but the central bank was adamant that the degree of monetary accommodation remains unchanged. After the ECB cut rates, while the Fed is now widely expected to ease rates, the SNB has little room to manoeuvre, especially against the backdrop of ongoing Brexit uncertainty and geopolitical trade risks. The SNB’s central message remains that the situation remains fragile and the currency “highly valued”. Interest Rate Decision, MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions. Friday – 20 September 2019   Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales and Core for August are seen steady, while the headline is anticipated to drop to 2.9% y/y from 3.3% and core to 2.5% from 2.9%. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.