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thalestrader

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Currently short the EUR/USD...

 

UPDATE: Taken out for break-even (+0.03R)...

 

POST-TRADE UPDATE: :doh:...at least I sat on my hands and stuck with the initial plan (although it is clear now that it wasn't a good one)...I was very tempted shortly after entry to squeeze my stop as it looked like it wasn't going anywhere at first, but I didn't...

5aa7109bf2deb_EURUSD(15Min)8_23_20114.jpg.6ae2a323cdd8df4e3b26d0c332976613.jpg

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Hey Cory,

 

Going along with MK's idea of analysing your past trades to see what would have happened with different profit taking situations, I'm wondering if you've read Van Tharp's book "How to Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom". An important thing I took away from it was the idea of having a system that meets your beliefs.

 

Specifically if you want to lose very little money (bar commissions) on a trade and occasionally make large profits (e.g. by jumping on fast moving trends that don't retrace before TP hit), then adjusting stops to BE is a great idea.

 

Have you written down the specific goals you have for your trading system regarding drawdowns, profitability etc e.g. what is your approach to risk? I've found it very helpful to think of trading in these terms.

 

 

iwshares

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POST-TRADE UPDATE: :doh:...at least I sat on my hands and stuck with the initial plan (although it is clear now that it wasn't a good one)...I was very tempted shortly after entry to squeeze my stop as it looked like it wasn't going anywhere at first, but I didn't...

 

The good news is that at least yesterday and today, your entries were much better than they had been in recent months. I took both myself (trading the 6e). Quite a difference in where we exited, however. Of course, going to a breakeven stop on the futures is much easier than it is with a bucket shop spot dealer, as that pulsating spread is a force to be reckoned with. But knowing that, and as you insist on trading spot, might it not occur to you that breakeven in spot is perhaps not really breakeven? Perhaps it is reducing your risk by 1/3 or even by 1/2.

But going to breakeven as you do is going to leave you broke.

 

So, what exactly was this "initial plan"? Whatever it was, its net effect was to reduce your production from yesterday by 90%.

 

You need to continue to pick your trades as you have yesterday and today. Also, in addition to those two shorts, there were two longs as well. You want to make sure that you haven't become biased to playing the short side - especially as this thing is going to break out of this range sooner or later, and it is as likely to break up as it is to break down.

 

Finally, you may need to learn to enter earlier, anticipating the break of the potential "2" point. This will allow you a smaller initial risk, and should keep you safer from your penchant to go to BE quickly without a plan to get back in.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Finally, you may need to learn to enter earlier, anticipating the break of the potential "2" point. This will allow you a smaller initial risk, and should keep you safer from your penchant to go to BE quickly without a plan to get back in.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

hi thales.. i am a bit surprised you'd advice on getting in early. when u mean anticipate the break of 2 do u mean getting in somwhere in the blue shaded area or before even that

23502210276-orig.png

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Currently short the EUR/USD...

 

I'm a little weary of this short...price looks a little choppy, and it's following and impulsive upmove. Plus, it looks like the better opportunity might have been on the GBP/USD as it has already fallen a good bit. Oh well, we'll see what happens...

 

UPDATE: Taken out for a full loss (-0.99R). I guess maybe I should have listened to my own concerns about this trade...or at least cut my loss short once I was in it. I need to learn when to hold them and when to fold them...of course much easier said than done.

eu4h.thumb.jpg.e7e2fe88c6f2b8f13f8c4717aeafe2e5.jpg

5aa7109c34308_EURUSD(15Min)8_24_2011.jpg.25aff6dcc4c2fb51a076b3769218d2cc.jpg

5aa7109c38934_EURUSD(15Min)8_24_20112.jpg.7bfa0305497309dc514d6daaad0ae61d.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Currently short the EUR/USD...

 

I'm a little weary of this short...price looks a little choppy, and it's following and impulsive upmove. Plus, it looks like the better opportunity might have been on the GBP/USD as it has already fallen a good bit. Oh well, we'll see what happens...

 

nice short.. i closed my long on that 123 trigger.. didnt short though.. looking good

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Unfortunately currently long the EUR/USD...here we go again...:crap:

 

UPDATE: Doing better than I initially thought...just needed a little patience I guess...stop currently at break-even...looking for a revisit to the high-of-the-week...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Taken out for break-even (+0.05R). Ughh... I need a drink! haha I wish I would have taken half profit at my break-even threshold at least.

5aa7109c476ef_EURUSD(15Min)8_24_20113.jpg.d6e9dbdb64c7a6a4b4f954e007b415c2.jpg

5aa7109c541c5_EURUSD(15Min)8_24_20114.jpg.5fdb76e7f6ac30128e9271199a96b9d1.jpg

5aa7109c6a0f2_EURUSD(15Min)8_24_20115.jpg.c357fdd0dedf512f984c0c86de722ca4.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Unfortunately currently long the EUR/USD...here we go again...:crap:

 

UPDATE: Doing better than I initially thought...just needed a little patience I guess...stop currently at break-even...looking for a revisit to the high-of-the-week...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Taken out for break-even (+0.05R). Ughh... I need a drink! haha I wish I would have taken half profit at my break-even threshold at least.

 

Cory you are doing fine man. the market is just choppy today. I thought about going long there too but range is tight and no 123. if u change ur strat and tomorrow it runs 100+pip u will be banging your head again.. i'm on the same boat... needa work on better exit.

 

enjoy your drink man.

 

J

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What a rough day. In addition to my loss, I missed this great, obvious opportunity on the USD/JPY...what a great move...it would have been hard for even me to mess that up had I gotten in it. I think I've been a little too narrowly focused on the EUR/USD, plus the USD/JPY hadn't done much during my trading hours lately. All that together I think caused me to neglect the USD/JPY a little.

 

I'm probably done for today...time to do a post-day review, regroup, and come back fresh tomorrow...gotta just learn from today and shake it off emotionally.

5aa7109c7771b_USDJPY(15Min)8_24_2011.jpg.8109529e36fe37d33b60c53ac0c0fd61.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Shouldawouldacoulda gotten this short on the EUR/USD, too.

 

Should have been a stop and reverse...it was a 123 short of like-degree from the long 123 I'd just gotten into. However, I was too long biased and just hoping so hard my long would play out, I guess.

 

Basically, if I had good reason to get long where I did (and I did), I had equal good reason to get short and had no excuse not to. I guess I just didn't have the guts or nimbleness of mind to flip short.

5aa7109c7be43_EURUSD(15Min)8_24_20117.jpg.411d113a9aff41a5a805721e43302017.jpg

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Another attempt at an early entry...EUR/JPY this time...

 

I can't tell exactly when you entered, but I can say two things: I like the entry, but I hate the stop loss - it needs to be above the highs, not within the 15 minute range.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Another attempt at an early entry...EUR/JPY this time...

 

UPDATE: Stop moved down...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Both PT's filled. Overall result was +3.73R.

ej4h.gif.61798be1f298b770311066f47adff6e5.gif

5aa7109e02af6_EURJPY(15Min)8_26_2011.jpg.446110fed44776ca83e7054501b270aa.jpg

5aa7109e06c11_EURJPY(15Min)8_26_20112.jpg.7b73e11b96ed07e93d779abe2cefcd08.jpg

5aa7109e0acac_EURJPY(15Min)8_26_20113.jpg.25e28574d23f8b69c4345940cf0d462e.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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I can't tell exactly when you entered, but I can say two things: I like the entry, but I hate the stop loss - it needs to be above the highs, not within the 15 minute range.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Gotcha. I was just trying to keep my risk as small as I could, but I see your point. I got a little lucky with that one with the intensity of the downmove...it took off and didn't look back. I of course can't count on the same thing happening next time.

 

I entered at the dark blue solid line. The dashed light blue line was the "entry" I was anticipating and getting a head-start on.

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Another attempt at an early entry...EUR/JPY this time...

 

I know the focus of this thread was largely the 123. But if you are finding it somewhat difficult to identify which swings to use for a 123, you should not forget to look for possible 2B's, such as this on the EURUSD as the week opens.

 

Your initial stop loss (shown) should be above the high, but rather quickly can be lowered to a tick or a handful of ticks above the actual high. Use S/R and fibs to find suitable profit targets. You can choose to take off all or 1/2 at PT1, or, use PT1 as your sign to bring your stop loss to breakeven, and then play for all PT2.

 

In this particular case, there is a strong S/R argument to take at least 1/2 at profit target 1.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25926&stc=1&d=1314573781

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa7109e42e5a_EURUSD2BSellatOpen.thumb.jpg.6a0eaee5e2ca98e7c4971c3efb876aef.jpg

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Currently short the EUR/USD...3 profit targets this time...

 

UPDATE: Not liking the way this is looking...temporarily moving my stop down tight...

eu4h.thumb.jpg.27f7e8fc1d39f5d63d3c5125d8495a36.jpg

5aa7109e7017d_EURUSD(15Min)8_29_2011.jpg.5f09b10e913094dd7edbdffbddef4e25.jpg

5aa7109e742b7_EURUSD(15Min)8_29_20112.jpg.9700ab4eb9df42aa28366612a558dcb1.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Currently short the EUR/USD...3 profit targets this time...

 

UPDATE: Not liking the way this is looking...temporarily moving my stop down tight...

 

UPDATE: Looking a little better now...tight stop now lifted and back to the original placement to give it some room.

5aa7109e7851e_EURUSD(15Min)8_29_20113.jpg.5b3093c2bbf156d18dab0b843998164c.jpg

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Currently short the EUR/USD...3 profit targets this time...

 

UPDATE: Not liking the way this is looking...temporarily moving my stop down tight...

 

UPDATE: Looking a little better now...tight stop now lifted and back to the original placement to give it some room.

 

UPDATE: Well, I'm heading out now so I'm moving my stop to break-even. I don't have high hopes for this trade. We'll see what happens...

5aa7109e8d4df_EURUSD(15Min)8_29_20114.jpg.da9e50873bc54206ff7749a407705dd7.jpg

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