Reading Charts in Real Time

[Marko23 10]

I would imagine that this should carry to the second PT, though nothing says that price cannot reverses before PT.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes, but I didn't want to get cocky after spotting the turn around.

[Marko23 10]

...

but I think anyone who has been reading this thread would agree that this long sequence on the EU would have been easy to see in real time.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Many thanks for your teaching of a good breakout method.

 

Many thanks for keeping this thread a very pleasant place to learn.

 

Kind regards, Marko

[Beachtrader 10]

Many thanks for keeping this thread a very pleasant place to learn.

 

I 100% agree.

 

Kind regards

BT

[Beachtrader 10]

Update: and entered long on an M5 1-2-3

[ATTACH]18124[/ATTACH]

 

Suitably humbled by the market for breaking my rules on trailing stops. Stopped out at b/e having moved my stop to b/e before a new high had printed. Feeling chastened as a result.

 

 

Kind regards

BT

Edited January 21, 2010 by Beachtrader

[Marko23 10]

Upmove has five visible segments.

If the coming correction does not retrace far beyond 62%, 1.4028 may be the bottom.

That's vague, but the future is completely unknown to me.

[Beachtrader 10]

here's how I'm seeing EURJPY at the moment. I haven't got a view either way so have marked on possible entries etc. for each direction.

 

 

A short for me would require a LrH off 129.29.

 

Kindregards

BT

 

Update:

Long entry triggered

Edited January 21, 2010 by Beachtrader
To add note about short

[thalestrader 14]

Upmove has five visible segments.

If the coming correction does not retrace far beyond 62%, 1.4028 may be the bottom.

...

That's vague, but the future is completely unknown to me.

 

Uncertain to us all ... but that really is about the extent of the manner in which I use EW myself, i.e. to sort our possibilities. Of course, with five waves up, we have what could be a 1 or an A. A correction could retrace 1/3 to 2/3's of this little rally, and make another five wave advance, and still be nothing more than a rally in the over all down tend that resolves to new lows. Just follow the highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, lower lows and lower highs.

 

Right now this rally is getting a bit sloppy here at the highs, but it did manage to just push through PT2.

 

I'm just watching for now. I missed the trade of the night on the 6B last night and I'm not quite sure why. I'll post that one later (after the opening 10-30 minutes of the US markets).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 21, 2010 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Here is possible ABC up: The first arrow would be the A leg, which subdivides into 5, the middle arrow is the B leg, which can subdivide into 3, and the third arrow would be a C leg where A=C, with the equality occurring at a past pivot level. Not a prediction of anything, by any means, as the unfortunate thing about EW is there are always alternate counts. But, given that the over all trend is currently down, a 123 short sequence that presents itself in the vicinity of that dotted gren line would get my attention moreso than one that occurred, say, right where price is now.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

My current thoughts on how I will trade the 6E today are on the chart (chart shows spot EURUSD).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Beachtrader 10]

here's how I'm seeing EURJPY at the moment. I haven't got a view either way so have marked on possible entries etc. for each direction.

 

[ATTACH]18131[/ATTACH]

 

A short for me would require a LrH off 129.29.

 

Kindregards

BT

 

Update:

Long entry triggered

[ATTACH]18131[/ATTACH]

 

If ever I have been glad of having a stop in place!

 

Thales, on the subject of trade management I am struggling a little with M15 and wondered if you could offer some advice. Obviously this is now with hindsight, but would I be right in thinking that a more prudent approach would have been to allow 1 test of the breakout level and tightened to just below that level, possibly taking into account the then failure of price to break its previous high as an early warning signal of trouble ahead?

 

 

Kind regards BT

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD missed the 100% mark, fast decline follows

[thalestrader 14]

My current thoughts on how I will trade the 6E today are on the chart (chart shows spot EURUSD).

 

The best laid plans ...

 

That was too quick for me to figure out what was happening. What a day!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

The best laid plans ...

 

That was too quick for me to figure out what was happening. What a day!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

This made it look fishy to me, the rally looked too slow.

Edited January 21, 2010 by Marko23
Wrong chart in the first edit!!

[Beachtrader 10]

EURUSD continuation?

 

 

Kind regards

BT

[Marko23 10]

EURUSD continuation?

 

[ATTACH]18141[/ATTACH]

 

Kind regards

BT

 

Not for me, I get a little tired, will switch off soon.

There was more than enough in FDAX.

Edited January 21, 2010 by Marko23
Typo, really tired.

[thalestrader 14]

If ever I have been glad of having a stop in place!

 

Thales, on the subject of trade management I am struggling a little with M15 and wondered if you could offer some advice. Obviously this is now with hindsight, but would I be right in thinking that a more prudent approach would have been to allow 1 test of the breakout level and tightened to just below that level, possibly taking into account the then failure of price to break its previous high as an early warning signal of trouble ahead?

 

Hi BT,

 

You did alright - you had your stop and you didn't lift hoping to get back to even (thankfully).

 

You are correct in that failure to make a new high when you are long is not bullish.

 

Also, look at your chart (you were trading the EURJPY I believe), and there we had a fairly clear short sequence (not necessarily obvious without looking for it, but you had a pullback low after the high, and then a rally that carried close to but not quite to the previous high. That low wold have been a good place to move your stop to, if not outright stop and reverse.

 

 

Also, here is a neat little trick I picked up from a JR, aka "Baldy," some years ago. The notes on the chart should be explanatory, but essentially it gives another way of "seeing" areas of possible proportion that may act as S/R levels.

 

 

As for me, the drop on the 6E took me by "surprise" in that I did not get the kind of indication I was looking for at the level at which I'd have liked to have seen it occur.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Beachtrader 10]

Thank you Thales for your feedback. That trick for chop zones is fascinating and I look forward to utilising it.

 

With regards to the HLLrH sequence, I think I was at fault for not interpreting what was going on correctly in real time as (as always with hindsight) I could see it after the event!!

 

Kind regards

BT

[thalestrader 14]

With regards to the HLLrH sequence, I think I was at fault for not interpreting what was going on correctly in real time as (as always with hindsight) I could see it after the event!!

 

I don't want to mislead you. I was not watching the EURJPY at the time, though I did have that channel drawn on it. I did not see the short sequence in real time, but I think I would have caught it.

 

I know you have said you use the 5 minute a great deal. Perhaps you'd be well served to force yourself not to look at anything less than the 15 minute. Mixing your time frame views probably will slow down the process by which you learn to see this various sequences and the degrees to which each belongs. Just a suggstion, of course, and I may be wrong.

 

By the way, here the daily EURJPY showing that the last multi-week rally stalled right around the midpoint of the nearly year long range between 126.87 and 139.20. Price has declined near the lower end of that range. May be an interesting place from which to hold a long if price gives us a chance.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Oil

 

Looking for a reversal breakout above #2

 

[thalestrader 14]

We'll see if I have any fingers left from trying to catch this knife - long 14 Stop is now 12quarter.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: Trades like this make it a sport, don't you think?

[Beachtrader 10]

For completeness sake here is the final chart of the euro trade I took on Monday night.

 

Initial entry was 4277 and I scaled out at 4258 (1/2), 4205 (just over 1/4) and 4125 (the rest) was hit this afternoon when euro went walkabout.

 

I'm not used to letting trades run this long (half a day is usually my max!) so I'm sure the scaling out etc. could have been massively improved upon but lots of lessons learnt for the future.

 

 

Kind regards

BT

[thalestrader 14]

For completeness sake here is the final chart of the euro trade I took on Monday night.

 

Initial entry was 4277 and I scaled out at 4258 (1/2), 4205 (just over 1/4) and 4125 (the rest) was hit this afternoon when euro went walkabout..

 

I'd be very pleased with that trade had I made it with your results. Great job!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Once in a while I have these streaks where the couldawouldashoulda ES trades would have been keepers, while the trades I actually manage to get an order off on would have been better never to have been born. A bounce from here that does not make a new high will cause me to pull the rip cord on this trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Oil

 

Looking for a reversal breakout above #2

 

Got stopped out and had to switch things up.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Oil

 

Looking for a reversal breakout above #2

 

Dinero,

 

Do you think price might make a test of the 12/22 3PM-ish $75.50 high?.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales