Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Some good discussion being generated regarding the use of the EMA and entry method. Thanks for all who contribute.

 

Looks like were in for a Monday morning rebound. Two nice entry opportunities long in CL this morning. Depending on your entry method, tough to get into the first entry as it turned 2 ticks ahead of the EMA.

 

2011-09-12_cl.png

 

Also, ES providing a nice entry around 9:22am EST. Took a little heat depending on entry method.

 

2011-09-12_1000.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice charts JMC.

 

One thing I've noticed when you post charts is that the morning appears to provide some very nice, risk/reward setups. And that does not surprise me seeing that the morning usually provides some great moves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nice charts JMC.

 

One thing I've noticed when you post charts is that the morning appears to provide some very nice, risk/reward setups. And that does not surprise me seeing that the morning usually provides some great moves.

 

Thanks. I definitely prefer the morning session in CL (appx. 8:30am - 11:00am EST) as that is when the volume comes in and you can almost always expect some larger moves. I also sometimes watch as we go into the last hour of the pit session and start looking for a possible entry if it presents itself around the 1:30pm EST mark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Three good entry opportunities in CL this morning, two long, one short. First one was an early bird special at 6:57am EST. Next two occurred at 7:54am and 9:25am. Last three sessions have been quite favorable. Getting a little choppy now.

 

2011-09-13_cl.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks JMC for the charts ...I will watch again this setup ...one need to be careful I was watching ES on this setup ..and took some heat ...Is there any nuance or something else you look for the entry? I currently looking at ES but will start looking at TF too...and see what else I can use for the entry ..What stop do you usde on TF if any?

 

Thank you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks JMC for the charts ...I will watch again this setup ...one need to be careful I was watching ES on this setup ..and took some heat ...Is there any nuance or something else you look for the entry? I currently looking at ES but will start looking at TF too...and see what else I can use for the entry ..What stop do you usde on TF if any?

 

Thank you

 

Thanks Pat. ES can be tough sometimes. I'd encourage you to check out CL as there is a much better risk/reward profile. Some nuances I've discussed earlier. I pay attention to the time of day and prefer to trade a market that is moving with volume. Other nuances are tougher to explain. I prefer taking the first pullback after a trend change and am a little hesitant to put on a "with trend" trade towards the end of move.

 

I'd recommend watching the 1 minute charts with the 100 EMA and watching how price reacts to this area. After some screen time, I feel like I've gotten better at being more selective on the trades I take. It may help to read up on some of the roots of this setup including:

 

The Floor Trader Method:

The Floor Trader Method

 

Linda Raschke Holy Grail Trade:

http://www.lbrgroup.com/images///raschke_pt2_0304.pdf

 

As far as a stop loss on TF, depending on volatility, I usually use a .10 to .15 stop. However, most of my trading these days is in CL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
am a little hesitant to put on a "with trend" trade towards the end of move.

 

Pat, a quick tip.

 

There was a time when I needed hard rules to determine if the current move is coming to an end. What helped me is this: if the last leg of the move is shorter than the previous one, momentum is slowing down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oil has been tough today. Should have been trading the Russell. Three good entry opportunities so far. Have to see how the long entry plays out as we go into the lunch time chop.

 

2011-09-14_TF.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its slightly off topic but what do most traders here do when there waiting for a setup. Especially those who trade 5 minute and upwards. I find it extremely difficult to maintain concentration when the first setup on a 15/30 minute may not be for hours into the day.

 

I've also found that because i have waited so long for that touch of the ema, it is difficult to say no to a candlestick that is weak, a market that is losing its momentum, etc. The trade you just look at after and know that was a crap setup.

 

Any advice or is this something i'll learn the hard way

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Its slightly off topic but what do most traders here do when there waiting for a setup. Especially those who trade 5 minute and upwards. I find it extremely difficult to maintain concentration when the first setup on a 15/30 minute may not be for hours into the day.

 

I've also found that because i have waited so long for that touch of the ema, it is difficult to say no to a candlestick that is weak, a market that is losing its momentum, etc. The trade you just look at after and know that was a crap setup.

 

Any advice or is this something i'll learn the hard way

 

If you ask your platform to alert you when price touches the moving average you might be able to trade multiple instruments in 5m or higher.

 

Alternatively, you can trade off a 3m or 1m chart (or charts). I found that trading off a 5m chart isn't suitable for my temperament. I need more action that it provides, so I started trading off a 1m chart. At first I found it challenging, but got used to it and, months later, I settled for 2 instruments in 1m (EUR and DAX). That helps me keep focus and not get bored.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IMO this makes or breaks this (or any system).

 

Stop placements:

1) Classic candlestick analysis would say one tick above the high or below the low of the entry candle.

 

2) Use previous support/resistance.

 

3) Fixed number.

 

Entering long with a stop, I've been placing my initial stop a tick below the low of the signal (candlestick pattern) candle, then, upon the close of the entry candle (which drags me into the market), I tightened the stop to a tick below the entry candle.

 

So far my impression is that this is unnecessary and would be easier, faster and less error-prone in a one minute timeframe to put the stop directly a tick below the low of the entry bar.

 

What's your experience? Any advice on this? Thanks in advance!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you ask your platform to alert you when price touches the moving average you might be able to trade multiple instruments in 5m or higher.

 

Alternatively, you can trade off a 3m or 1m chart (or charts). I found that trading off a 5m chart isn't suitable for my temperament. I need more action that it provides, so I started trading off a 1m chart. At first I found it challenging, but got used to it and, months later, I settled for 2 instruments in 1m (EUR and DAX). That helps me keep focus and not get bored.

 

On the Dax do you use the 100ema like JMC?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On the Dax do you use the 100ema like JMC?

 

No, I use a 34EMA, which I'm still testing. General impressions so far is that I would probably be better off going back to the 20EMA and the 50SMA. There's more opportunity, although the moves aren't as great as the moves off the 34EMA.

 

From a risk/reward perspective, the 34EMA is perhaps better but only if you do stick to your target. If you don't, --and I do have trouble with that--, you'd be (and I'd be) better off going for slightly smaller but more frequent moves off the 20EMA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No, I use a 34EMA, which I'm still testing. General impressions so far is that I would probably be better off going back to the 20EMA and the 50SMA. There's more opportunity, although the moves aren't as great as the moves off the 34EMA.

 

From a risk/reward perspective, the 34EMA is perhaps better but only if you do stick to your target. If you don't, --and I do have trouble with that--, you'd be (and I'd be) better off going for slightly smaller but more frequent moves off the 20EMA.

 

Currently iam trading the 15 minute charts and am just struggling to get a decent risk to reward ratio and more than 1-2 trades in a day. I don't really want to be stuck infront of a computer screen all day waiting either. However i find the 1 minute chart slightly daunting due the large amount setups off the ema.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Currently iam trading the 15 minute charts and am just struggling to get a decent risk to reward ratio and more than 1-2 trades in a day. I don't really want to be stuck infront of a computer screen all day waiting either. However i find the 1 minute chart slightly daunting due the large amount setups off the ema.

 

Why not use the day trader's staple chart -- the 5 minute? Unfortunately even if you use a smaller time frame chart, much of trading is about being patient and waiting, and you may find that it helps your trading to be in front of the screen longer. Also, 1 or 2 trades in a day, well executed, with good profits and small losses, is nothing to be ashamed of!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Its slightly off topic but what do most traders here do when there waiting for a setup. Especially those who trade 5 minute and upwards. I find it extremely difficult to maintain concentration when the first setup on a 15/30 minute may not be for hours into the day.

 

I've also found that because i have waited so long for that touch of the ema, it is difficult to say no to a candlestick that is weak, a market that is losing its momentum, etc. The trade you just look at after and know that was a crap setup.

 

Any advice or is this something i'll learn the hard way

 

When trading off 5 minute or longer charts, it can get a bit tedious especially if you are staring at one market. A good suggestion was to set an alert on your platform and then either do something else or watch multiple markets. If you watch 4+ markets that are not correlated, then that boring 5 minute chart can get more active.

 

Entering long with a stop, I've been placing my initial stop a tick below the low of the signal (candlestick pattern) candle, then, upon the close of the entry candle (which drags me into the market), I tightened the stop to a tick below the entry candle.

 

So far my impression is that this is unnecessary and would be easier, faster and less error-prone in a one minute timeframe to put the stop directly a tick below the low of the entry bar.

 

What's your experience? Any advice on this? Thanks in advance!

 

Actual examples would really help as I don't quite get where your stop is initially and then where it goes to. For me, if I enter on a hammer, the stop is tick(s) below the low of the hammer. And that's where it stays.

 

For those of you who want more scalping action, put a 34 ema on a volume-based chart. They're smoother for this kind of thing and you'll get more signals than minute-based charts.

 

I agree - tick charts or volume based charts will provide more setups for sure. I had mentioned to JMC previously that I put his design on a 800 tick ES chart and did not look bad at all. I admit, I have not been tracking it daily so please make sure you do before jumping in.

 

So the options to get more action during the day could be:

 

1) Watch more than 1 market

2) Watch 1-2 markets but use 'faster' chart settings - 1 minute, tick or volume charts. You could also use a combo of these as well. Say you really like the CL or ES moves, or for margin purposes you want to focus on 1 market, you could have a 1 minute chart up, a tick chart and/or a volume chart of that market.

 

Currently iam trading the 15 minute charts and am just struggling to get a decent risk to reward ratio and more than 1-2 trades in a day. I don't really want to be stuck infront of a computer screen all day waiting either. However i find the 1 minute chart slightly daunting due the large amount setups off the ema.

 

15 minute charts would be difficult to 'trade' from IMO. If you get 1-2 setups in a day, I would call that a victory. You are getting 4 bars per HOUR. If the 1 minute is too fast, try the 5 minute out as Josh suggested. That could be a happy medium to speed the charts up a bit and also find good risk-reward setups. If you focus only on risk-reward, the 1 minute will be hard to beat. Look at some of JMC's screenshots - he's risking maybe 20 ticks on the CL and seeing moves of 50 ticks+ on his trades. Risk $200 to make $500 or more is not bad at all IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i find the 1 minute chart slightly daunting due the large amount setups off the ema.

 

You may want to consider taking only trades where the candlestick pattern is a hammer that has pierced the EMA. That's going to limit the number of signals you'll get during the day to about 2 or 3 in the 1m DAX and another 2 or 3 (on average) in the 1m EUR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You may want to consider taking only trades where the candlestick pattern is a hammer that has pierced the EMA. That's going to limit the number of signals you'll get during the day to about 2 or 3 in the 1m DAX and another 2 or 3 (on average) in the 1m EUR.

 

Do you have an criteria the market or that pullback has to meet to buy/sell the the hammer?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minute charts would be difficult to 'trade' from IMO. If you get 1-2 setups in a day, I would call that a victory. You are getting 4 bars per HOUR

 

See iam not sure if it is just the week and iam just freaking out. because normally i do quiet well and find many successful setups. Do any others experience a week in which it seem the market is just ignoring your ema? I feel that i have enough backtesting to support the 15minute chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
See iam not sure if it is just the week and iam just freaking out. because normally i do quiet well and find many successful setups. Do any others experience a week in which it seem the market is just ignoring your ema? I feel that i have enough backtesting to support the 15minute chart.

 

Not sure about the 15 minute chart, but I do experience days where the market seems to not respect the EMA (1 minute- 100 EMA) the way it typically does. However, more often than not, I do see a reaction at the EMA of some sort. Though it is not always a great trading opportunity.

 

Today for instance, you can see from about 9:20am to 10:20am EST CL consolidated above a ledge of support at the EMA before breaking hard on heavy volume.

 

2011-09-16_cl.png

 

Definitely a reaction to the EMA, but not much of a trading opportunity other than scalping. I suppose you could have traded the break of the consolidation but I always prefer selling a bounce back into the EMA. In this case, we didn't get it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Thanks for this. The picture below shows where I place the stop initially and how I tighten it up until it gets to break even.

 

Back testing appears to support the view that leaving the stop a tick below the low of the hammer, untouched, results is more profitable trades and less break even ones.

 

What's your view on this? Thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for this. The picture below shows where I place the stop initially and how I tighten it up until it gets to break even.

 

Back testing appears to support the view that leaving the stop a tick below the low of the hammer, untouched, results is more profitable trades and less break even ones.

 

What's your view on this? Thanks!

 

Apologies, here's the picture!

5aa710a5b06ae_2011_09.20-Charts18.thumb.jpg.2e48d8f7cfc1a493af6ff8e9915422b8.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $VKTX Viking Therapeutics stock attempting to move higher off the 64.24 support area, volume 47% above normal, https://stockconsultant.com/?VKTX
    • Date: 26th April 2024. Alphabet Easily Beat Earnings Predictions But Focus Shifts to Today’s PCE Data. Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings reports beat expectations pushing the NASDAQ to the top of the charts. The Bank of Japan keep interest rates unchanged applying pressure on the Japanese Yen. The Yen Index declines 0.36% and is down 40% against the USD over the past 5 years. The US GDP growth rate falls below its 2.5% expectations, reading 1.6%, but economists advise the Fed may only cut once in 2024! The market turns its attention to the Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. USA100 – Alphabet Easily Beat Analysts’ Earnings Predictions and Sees its P/E Ratio Fall! The price of the NASDAQ ended the day higher and rose to a slightly higher high. As a result, the index is close to forming a traditional bullish trend and making Wednesday’s decline a retracement or medium-term correction. In terms technical analysis, indicators are mainly indicating a reverting price condition where the asset cannot maintain longer term momentum. However, momentum indications provide a slight bullish bias. The upward price movement is being driven by earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet which beat earnings expectations. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ while Alphabet is the third most influential. Alphabet’s earnings beat expectations by 21.61% and revenue rose more than $6 billion. As a result, the price of the stock rose 11.56% after market close. Furthermore, Microsoft’s Earnings Per Share beat Wall Street’s expectations by 3.40% and revenue by 1.50%. The stock rose by 4.30% after market close and is close to trading at the all-time high. However, investors should note that from the “magnificent 7”, Alphabet and Meta have the lowest Price to Earnings ratio. Meaning these stocks are the most likely to be trading below their intrinsic value. However, investors should note that negatives for the stock market in general remain. This also supports the bias shown by technical analysis. The GDP growth rate fell considerably below expectations while inflation data continues to show signs of rising prices. Investors will closely be monitoring today’s Core PCE Price Index which is the most watched index by the Federal Reserve. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index reads more than 0.3%, a rate cut will become unlikely making stocks less attractive. Whereas, if the PCE Price Index is not as high as expectations, Bond Yields will likely decline, as will the US Dollar and a rate cut will be put back on the table. As a result, investors may look to take advantage of the strong earnings and continue purchasing stocks. USDJPY – BOJ Hold Interest Rates Unchanged! The price of the USDJPY exchange rate again rose to an all-time recent high after increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Trend and momentum-based indicators point towards a higher price. However, the exchange rate is trading within the overbought range of most oscillators and is also showing a divergence pattern. Both are known to indicate a decline, but not necessarily a complete change of trend. The Bank of Japan’s statement from earlier this morning was largely “dovish” and gave no clear indication that the central bank wishes to keep rising interest rates. However, shortly the Governor will answer questions from journalists and may give a more hawkish tone. Either way, investors are mainly concentrating on if the Federal Government will again opt to intervene within the currency market. Most economists believe the intervention will only come if the USD continues to rise and it will not be before the Core PCE Price Index. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • 📁 Population in 2100, as projected by UN Population Division.   🇮🇳 India: 1,533 million 🇨🇳 China: 771 million 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 546 million 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 487 million 🇨🇩 Congo: 431 million 🇺🇸 US: 394 million 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: 323 million 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 297 million 🇹🇿 Tanzania: 244 million 🇪🇬 Egypt: 205 million 🇧🇷 Brazil: 185 million 🇵🇭 Philippines: 180 million 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 177 million 🇳🇪 Niger: 166 million 🇸🇩 Sudan: 142 million 🇦🇴 Angola: 133 million 🇺🇬 Uganda: 132 million 🇲🇽 Mexico: 116 million 🇰🇪 Kenya: 113 million 🇷🇺 Russia: 112 million 🇮🇶 Iraq: 111 million 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: 110 million   @FinancialWorldUpdates Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • “If the West finds itself falling behind in AI, it won’t be due to a lack of technological prowess or resources. It won’t be because we weren’t smart enough or didn’t move fast enough. It will be because of something many of our Eastern counterparts don’t share with us: fear of AI.   The root of the West's fear of AI can no doubt be traced back to decades of Hollywood movies and books that have consistently depicted AI as a threat to humanity. From the iconic "Terminator" franchise to the more recent "Ex Machina," we have been conditioned to view AI as an adversary, a force that will ultimately turn against us.   In contrast, Eastern cultures have a WAY different attitude towards AI. As UN AI Advisor Neil Sahota points out, "In Eastern culture, movies, and books, they've always seen AI and robots as helpers and assistants, as a tool to be used to further the benefit of humans."   This positive outlook on AI has allowed countries like Japan, South Korea, and China to forge ahead with AI development, including in areas like healthcare, where AI is being used to improve the quality of services.   The West's fear of AI is not only shaping public opinion but also influencing policy decisions and regulatory frameworks. The European Union, for example, recently introduced AI legislation prioritizing heavy-handed protection over supporting innovation.   While such measures might be well-intentioned, they risk stifling AI development and innovation, making it harder for Western companies and researchers to compete.   Among the nations leading common-sense AI regulation, one stands out for now: Singapore.” – Chris C Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • $NFLX Netflix stock hold at 556.59 support or breakdown?  https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.