Marauders in the Fog

[Kiwi 16]

I've always liked the idea of a good analogies for trading. My previous favourite was surfing but I've started working on a new one which I will try to develop in this thread. If anyone contributes to the thread can you keep it in line with this core analogy rather than heading off in other directions.

 

My new analogy is an age of empires or dark ages style analogy. Core elements are that each trader is a band of marauders. When you run in your chosen direction (long or short) then you plunder those who were trying to run in the other direction - you literally rip the plunder of their backs as you push them back. If you stay too long and direction reverses they rip the plunder of your back ultimately resulting in a losing raid if you don't go to ground and hide amongst the bushes in the fog (exit).

 

Why a band of marauders? Because their are big bands and small bands and different tactics work better for each group. Also because your band of marauders includes some ill disciplined members who, for example, in the face of a losing raid will immediately want to try again rather than waiting, setting up and ambush, and attaching again when everything is in your band's favour.

 

Why a fog? Because you can feel the slope of the ground (current trend) but you can't see far clearly. You can see rough ground and hillocks ahead where previous fights have left trenches and areas that create the opportunity for a defense ... but you can't see them clearly and don't know how many bands might be hiding there waiting to ambush you.

 

So, it's Germany, after the Roman Empire's greatest days. It's cold, fog rolls through the valleys and periodically volcanoes blow and earthquakes shake the ground and change the overall trend. You've got a band of marauders but there are large armies and caravans that you can loot but their are lots of other bandits out there looking to loot the caravans or your group when you're weak or wrong sided.

 

You and your little band are lurking in the stochastic fog. How are you going to plunder them?

[Kiwi 16]

Phases of Trading

 

Ambush. Plunder. Recovery.

 

Ambush. One waits with his band until the perfect opportunity arises to rush in and plunder the armies, caravans, and other bandits. The easiest prey are young raiders who think they know what they're doing but enter foolishly, stay too long, and often attack just as the armies regroup to push back against the slope. They foolishly fall for magical indications of army movement, can't wait for a good ambush point or chase the armies, wearing themselves out before they reach them --- and they are easy prey.

 

Plunder. When the mass is moving in your direction you've joined the fray and rip plunder from the weak. You watch for rough ground caused by previous fightbacks and abandon the banditry when you sense the risk of reversal and losing your plunder is too high.

 

Recovery. Time to bandage the men's wounds. Let them air their grievances so that they don't bring them into play during the next ambush. Get everyone fed, rested, and ready for the next ambush.