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walterw

Playing with the VMAR`s open research

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Here I open this new paralel thread so we can play arround freely with some cool nice ideas that vmar`s actually could suggest...

 

I start this thread inspired on Pyenner`s work coding the Vmar on Mt4 on a way some thought we could not get there... it had been surprised that even this last version of Pyenner work has outperformed the original VT version...

 

As he already presented some charts that got me thinking and some posts about possible variations, I know he can play arround freely here as myself and other traders can suggest new inovative aplications of this variations...

 

In my case I already had been doing some research related to scalping with this indicators, then I droped that research as did not have yet Pyenner`s last version of vmar... NOW I am more motivated to pick up again this paralel research and play here on this thread...

 

SO... let the creativity and interaction start... enjoy ¡¡ lets have fun ¡¡

 

hope you guys when trading succesfully remember to give back what God gives us with such generosity... cheers Walter.

 

 

Another day on paradise (Phill Collins)...

 

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Some ramblings as I try to make sense of a new toy.

 

Walter found a VMA indicator made by Bemac for the VT platform and had the sense and experience to see that it offered something special.

 

Walter likes to keep trading simple (otherwise you go nuts!) and the flat lines from Bemac's indicator give a very clear reference mark on a chart for beginning and ending trades and for thinking about your options.

 

But what makes the indicator line go flat?

What makes it switch from following a trend to going flat and then back to trending again?

 

What needs to be improved in the way it-

1. follows trends?

2. changes from trend to flat?

3. changes from flat to trending?

4. does it have more uses still?

 

I think of it as an ADX_VMA because it comes in two parts.

 

The first part of the code is an ADX and some of the advantages come from the way an ADX works. It automatically adjusts itself to any range of sawtooth and ignores it. Instead, it aims at seeking out any trend component hidden in all sorts of choppy rubbish. This is what makes the flat area or horizonal effect possible. When the price goes into a choppy sawtooth the ADX main signal goes low, 0-40% is low. The VMA indicator switches from following the trend to flat line.

 

When a small trend is present the flat region may step up or down a few pips to show that a small trend is happening inside the sawtooth.

 

Once the trend component is big enough compared to the sawtooth component, the ADX gives a bigger signal, 40% up to 70% on a clean trend with little fallback. This lets the indicator switch to trend following.

 

There are adjustments that can be made to how closely it follows a trend and to how cleanly it switches from trend to flat and back again.

What you don't get and maybe don't need is an adjustment for the range of sawtooth movement it should ignore, that part happens automatically inside the ADX and it makes things easy.

 

Nice stuff and it is the ADX that does it. But if you ever tried to trade off an ADX signal you probably went nuts and gave up, too tough.

 

Thats where the VMA part comes in and gives a flat line when the ADX signal is below 40%.

VMA means Veriable Mean Average but what it does is simple.

When the ADX signal is low, it uses a long slow average, many bars or "periods".

When the ADX signal is high, it uses a short fast average, as few as two bars effectively.

 

Think of the fantail, the magenta line is the slowest to curve, it has the longest slowest curve, maybe 100 bars in that average, old news.

The Yellow side of the fantail is fastest, bends quickest, follows the trend closest, maybe 2 or 4 bars in that average, recent news only.

The VMA part decides how many bars to include in its calculation of an average price, many bars give an older price, fewer bars give a recent price.

It can stick with the past or stick with the present or somewhere in between, variable.

 

Trend following uses the prices from just the last few bars and ignores the past.

Flat line uses the past prices and ignores the present until it has something to say thats worth hearing.

 

---------------

 

Walter has experience at trading with the indicator and historical charts only tell you part of the story about what you need from an indicator in order to trade easily with it. So I will rely on his comments and introduce concepts for tuning ADX_VMA performance by using fewer or more "periods" or "bars" or "counts" in a sample or average. Fast means small numbers, slow means big numbers.

 

If the ADX samples too few bars, maybe 4 or less, you get overshoot, it follows the trend after it should have gone flat.

If the ADX uses too many bars, you get undershoot, a slow curve into or out of the flat zone, it should have gone flat quicker than that.

Optimum is somewhere in between.

Time to find a picture.

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Excellent explanation there Pyenner ¡¡ ... thats a great description of the intrinsic reason of why we got an indicator that its unusual and with tremendous edge... certainly the great dilema of TA is the fact that most analist are not able to dicern (at least on the right time) the shift between cyclical and trending conditions... its the big dilema of most traders...

 

Now having this tool in hand you can clearly see the shift from one stage to another...

 

What has powerfully called my attention on this last version Pyenner (and I would suggest numbering the versions from here on ) is the responsivnes of this black line when it starts to move in a direction after being horizontal for some time... it somehow leads (not always) quite a bit on the move...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=2813&stc=1&d=1189572047

 

thats what calls my attention on what implications this could have as a timing tool even on the 5 min chart... the potential its yet not known... we will have to research thoroughly to be able to answer this... but common sense tells me that this type of clean performance its without doubt a good context to be working on... cheers Walter.

rise.thumb.png.be8c4893018df998327424ec06a18ccf.png

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Trend following.

 

This is a slightly different topic from the others.

There are some options to control how closely the VMA base line sticks to the trending prices.

 

Close in with the price gives maximum detail in the base line, is that detail wanted or a nuisance?

 

A slight gap between the VMA line and the price line occurs when you slow down the VMA by using more bars in the minimum sample size. This gives a smoother line when trending, easier on the eye but also means the Base line lags behind the price more, Good news or bad news?

 

Which trend following performance works best for trading?

Yellow (fastest), Blue (bit slower) or magenta (too slow)?

TrendFollowing.thumb.PNG.88acc84c6c2a01c35f14fac7553642d7.PNG

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Let me see if I get this straight... here we have three vma "base lines" with diferent inputs plotted on this 1 min chart... could you tell me what inputs each one have ?

 

 

It is clear that the three lines are having diferent rolls and they all get combined into one particular trend trade...

 

Here I attach my first interpretation of the possible rolls they could have...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=2815&stc=1&d=1189573511

 

 

the magenta and cyan could establish a clean trend... while the yellow could give timing as it raises from horizontal effect (laddering)... some ideas... thinking in loud voice here... I like this interaction Pyenner... keep it coming... I also have some waco ideas... cheers Walter.

5aa70dffdd3f0_trendfollowingcoment.thumb.png.e674736776678d59ecb0393b7bc40bd3.png

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What has powerfully called my attention on this last version Pyenner (and I would suggest numbering the versions from here on )

 

is the responsiveness of this black line when it starts to move in a direction after being horizontal for some time... it somehow leads (not always) quite a bit on the move...

 

Numbering- yes, its chaos city here, you probably noticed :helloooo:

 

Responsiveness- yes, I'm surprised you noticed that.

Good eyes Walter.

 

You see Igorad kinda cheated a bit on one stage maybe.

But what he got may have been better that what Bemac was using.

So maybe Igorad went with what worked best instead of copying Bemac 100%.

Or maybe he ran into the same problem I had, MT4's ema function crashes indicators, I wasted 2 days on that #@$* incompetence arggggh.

 

Anyway, yes we have some options here, ways to optimize the shoulder at the exit from the flat bit into the trending bit and how closely it sticks to a trending price.

It needs more time to explore it....

Glad you see the importance of it.

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Let me see if I get this straight... here we have three vma "base lines" with diferent inputs plotted on this 1 min chart... could you tell me what inputs each one have ?

 

 

It is clear that the three lines are having diferent rolls and they all get combined into one particular trend trade...

 

 

Ok you got it right but you are also a step ahead.

Will do the first step here then come back to the second step.

They do overlap yes...

 

The first question is only about how close you want the black line on your VMA indicator to be to a trending price.

 

I tried to show you how it can be so close it gets really mixed in with the price and so far away that it is real smooth.

 

The close one shows detail, but is that what you want to see?

Or is it better to have a smoother line that shows trend, but ignores the detail?

 

I don't know which is best yet.

I am saying you can chose to have your black base line following either a detailed path like yellow, or a smoother "trendy" path like either blue or magenta.

 

It is something that can be chosen, so think about which ONE of the THREE lines would be best as your black line when there is a trend.

 

It wasn't the best picture. I have seen sometimes when comparing VT to Igorad that sometimes one had a smoother line up between ladder steps, while the other had more wiggles in it, like mini steps on the way up.

So do you want mini steps or smooth?

I don't have an opinion yet.... would like to hear others.

 

---------------------------

 

OK, now the second part IS about having multiple VMA lines on a 1 min chart.

But that needs to be discussed on its own and it has more to do with the flat bit and the shoulders going into or out of the flat bit.

I did post a picture on the other thread that introduced that line of thinking.

I want to take it a lot further because it has possibilities.

 

One possiblity is that, in addition to your black line which is flat, you can also have a few more lines, maybe one that works a bit faster so it doesn't stay so flat but it may give you an early warning before your black base line turns up or down into a new trend. That may not be keeping it simple, but it might still be handy.

 

---------------

 

A third possibilty is replacing the fantail we have now with a fantail of VMA lines. Now there is one scenario where this might give you an exit price guide when trading a recovery. Its too many things to think about, they need to be split up and developed. I suspect a VMA fantail may be more useful than the fantail we have now. Scalping the swings either side of the flat line may also come into it. Dude, it gets all mixed up, overload, meltdown, kablooowweee :helloooo:

One at a time, keep it simple, argh, I should be so lucky :crap:

Pass me a banana someone please...

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I use vma this morning to detect bounceof resistance namely the channel (ala SRDC 2 method) Flattening out of vma on 15 min chart was my trigger to initiate possible entry.http://www.megaupload.com/?d=7AYF9QGS. Dropped down to 5 min to observe price action. Waited for 21 sma our trendsetter ( white ma) to cross vma and then enter on the close of penetrating candle. Exited trade when 21 sma crossed over vma horizontal. .http://www.megaupload.com/?d=KTMMNK92. Thx again walter and pyenner.

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One possible advantage of using VMA lines for a fantail.

 

The slowest line sometimes (recovery) gives an estimate of what your exit price might be.

 

In this case magenta is the slowest line and since it gives the longest flat line during a recovery, then you have a nice fixed estimate of where your trade might end up going.

 

Recycled another pix.

Try to see the general idea, when the fantail diverges, all the lines will eventually converge again. In the case of a recovery, the faster lines "chase after" the slowest line, so that is where they will likely meet.

Magenta is sometimes a guide to exit price.

PeriodRainbow2.thumb.PNG.45c47961ff16ae051b7ec7b5a362bedd.PNG

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Change gears again.

 

Currently the black line on a 1 min chart gives an entry signal when it starts to curve into a new trend.

 

It is possible to add in a slightly faster line and use that as an early warning of an emerging trend.

 

Again it is a recycled pix, not the best for the job but maybe enough to see the direction....

PeriodRainbow3.thumb.PNG.7026136719cd015757378d2b9761df31.PNG

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Change gears again

 

If you can put the 5min base line onto a 1 min chart.

Maybe you no longer need the 5min chart.

You can do it all off a 1min chart or perhaps have two 1min charts, one zoomed on for entry/exit and the other zoomed out for the longer perspective.

 

I suppose that will need another pix, but it is kinda all there in the pictures above, if you delve into it?

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Ok you got it right but you are also a step ahead.

Will do the first step here then come back to the second step.

They do overlap yes...

 

The first question is only about how close you want the black line on your VMA indicator to be to a trending price.

 

I tried to show you how it can be so close it gets really mixed in with the price and so far away that it is real smooth.

 

The close one shows detail, but is that what you want to see?

Or is it better to have a smoother line that shows trend, but ignores the detail?

 

I don't know which is best yet.

I am saying you can chose to have your black base line following either a detailed path like yellow, or a smoother "trendy" path like either blue or magenta.

 

It is something that can be chosen, so think about which ONE of the THREE lines would be best as your black line when there is a trend.

 

It wasn't the best picture. I have seen sometimes when comparing VT to Igorad that sometimes one had a smoother line up between ladder steps, while the other had more wiggles in it, like mini steps on the way up.

So do you want mini steps or smooth?

I don't have an opinion yet.... would like to hear others.

 

---------------------------

 

OK, now the second part IS about having multiple VMA lines on a 1 min chart.

But that needs to be discussed on its own and it has more to do with the flat bit and the shoulders going into or out of the flat bit.

I did post a picture on the other thread that introduced that line of thinking.

I want to take it a lot further because it has possibilities.

 

One possiblity is that, in addition to your black line which is flat, you can also have a few more lines, maybe one that works a bit faster so it doesn't stay so flat but it may give you an early warning before your black base line turns up or down into a new trend. That may not be keeping it simple, but it might still be handy.

 

---------------

 

A third possibilty is replacing the fantail we have now with a fantail of VMA lines. Now there is one scenario where this might give you an exit price guide when trading a recovery. Its too many things to think about, they need to be split up and developed. I suspect a VMA fantail may be more useful than the fantail we have now. Scalping the swings either side of the flat line may also come into it. Dude, it gets all mixed up, overload, meltdown, kablooowweee :helloooo:

One at a time, keep it simple, argh, I should be so lucky :crap:

Pass me a banana someone please...

 

 

jejejejej SUPERB POST Pyenner... you are a man after my heart... I also do have this type of brainstorms myself ¡¡¡ awesome ¡¡

 

I think we have several paralel topics to aboard as you described above...

 

let me see if I am in sync here...

 

FIRST TOPIC :

 

the black line directional movement (could we call it "laddering" ? ) with also the aid of a smaller "turbo vma" telling us some hints of what the blackline will do in front... this could be used for "timing" purposes and the edge relies on the horizontal effect plus the incredible responsivnes on the Cycle/trending stage shift from the vma... so that duo (black line and its turbo) are a complete subject to research on..

 

SECOND TOPIC :

 

A Rainbow of base lines ¡¡¡ :stick out tongue::stick out tongue::stick out tongue::shocked::stick out tongue::shocked::thumbs up::thumbs up: that is a Terrific topic... I cant say it will outperform our rainbow... but base lines as you mentioned before are doing a "drummond effect" on taking multiple time frames into one chart... what cautivates me on this idea is that the horizontal effect from higher time frames could be plotted on just one time frame and if we take the "turbo" reading from smaller to bigger lines we could have "anticipations" of laddering readings in that particular new rainbow...

 

so this could be a complete different topic that gradually could merge with the first one.. I like the color of this research... it truly aims to put VMA on steroids...

 

about simplicity, when original ideas come in there is not a simple plot.... ellaboration at the end of the process takes care of simplifying the last product.. so dont feel intimidated by apparent non simplicity...

 

keep the ideas flowing ¡¡ I like this one cheers Walter.

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I use vma this morning to detect bounceof resistance namely the channel (ala SRDC 2 method) Flattening out of vma on 15 min chart was my trigger to initiate possible entry.http://www.megaupload.com/?d=7AYF9QGS. Dropped down to 5 min to observe price action. Waited for 21 sma our trendsetter ( white ma) to cross vma and then enter on the close of penetrating candle. Exited trade when 21 sma crossed over vma horizontal. .http://www.megaupload.com/?d=KTMMNK92. Thx again walter and pyenner.

 

 

Island... I am not able to download your charts... you can upload them here at TL this thread tells you how to do so http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-to-post-a-chart-properly-805.html If you can re-post this ones, I will apreciate... cheers Walter.

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I am playing, just playing... we are authorized to do so here.... look at this chart... aud/usd 1 min with fantailvma1 inputs 1-128-64-0-1 and applied to it a bollinger band 20-3 of previos indicators data.... hmmm

laddering.thumb.png.9114021546ed151ecccde371cd82147e.png

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Gee Walter

 

I'm glad you can see the same stuff I can see in that indicator.

While my understanding is vague, it is difficult to explain what I only partly see.

 

Yes the turbo bit would be an aid to experienced traders but an unreliable confusing thing for beginners. There is no substitute for market experience.

 

About a week back I had some "inspiration" about scalping but it seems to have got lost on me again. Maybe it will come back, maybe I have gone past it. It is good that we can speak the same language and see what the other sees.

 

I am seeing a lot of icons these days too.

Communication is a powerful tool.

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Gee Walter

 

I'm glad you can see the same stuff I can see in that indicator.

While my understanding is vague, it is difficult to explain what I only partly see.

 

Yes the turbo bit would be an aid to experienced traders but an unreliable confusing thing for beginners. There is no substitute for market experience.

 

About a week back I had some "inspiration" about scalping but it seems to have got lost on me again. Maybe it will come back, maybe I have gone past it. It is good that we can speak the same language and see what the other sees.

 

I am seeing a lot of icons these days too.

Communication is a powerful tool.

 

Certainly Pyenner the EDGE on this indicator is the "horizontal efect" come and go... when it starts as when it finishes... it tells us a shift of cycle to trending condition...

 

 

I spend years trying to find an indicator that could tell me without lagging that information and you know what vualà ¡¡¡ :thumbs up:... 12 years later we got it ¡¡ and Bemac, Igorad and yourself Pyenner got a great credit on it ¡¡... cheers Walter.

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Yes

Bollinger band is a bit like the way a "turbo vma" line would converge and diverge from the main base line. It would mostly run between the price line and the smoother base line curve.

And yes again, if you have a turbo line for the purpose of warning you which way the trend will emerge from a flat line, then it will also be there up the trend, showing more mini steps and ladders while the main line follows a smoother path and only bends into the bigger flats, ignores the mini flats.

 

One idea sort of leads you into more ideas, unexpected ones.

 

I'm sorry I didn't answer your earlier question about what times I was using in that chart with 3 lines close to an up trend. I dont remember. The fastest line was probably a bit faster than a normal 1 min base line and the other two a little slower.

Sorry to be vague, too soon to get getting exact.

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For example... one simple "Trend definition" could be using a larger base vma line with inputs 1-256-128-0-1 (cyan line) and saying :

 

red > cyan = up trend

 

red < cyan = down trend

 

so that could give trend definition...

 

then timing could be managed with ladderings of the red with the spreading of its bollinger... I am thinking in loud voice... totally just ideas... cheers Walter.

5aa70e000b89a_ladderingintrend1.thumb.png.672c2af62757af7e3ded492a3ce6d574.png

5aa70e00112af_ladderingintrend2.thumb.png.5f3263418c5fe814e2a2f82058cd37fa.png

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Yes

 

You have got the picture about lines that are near to a normal 1 min base line. Say like close in 3/4 min turbo, 1min normal and 3 min line further out still.

 

On top of that, change into 5th gear, overdrive.

Zoom out your 1 min chart for the long range view.

 

Because a 16 min base line is way outside the spread of your current 1 min fantail. Repost this pix.

 

On this, the orange line runs about where the outside magenta edge of your 1 min fantail might be.

But the orange line would also be about where your 5 min base line would be if you could see it on the same chart.

 

Now say the red line is about where the outside magenta line of the 5 min fantail would be.

 

OK now look at where that Magenta line is, way outside, its a base line from a 16 minute chart, long range trading stuff. Way past 5 min stuff.

 

Look at the way the faster lines weave about the slowest magenta line.

 

Sometimes the price breaks out, and then there is no way of predicting how far it will go. When that happens, its magenta that has to catch up to all the faster lines. But on the occasions when the price turns back inwards towards the slowest magenta line, then magenta gives you a target price for the eventual meeting of all those lines.

 

You will see in there also an icon trade which breaks my "rule" about trading the outswing back towards the magenta "centre" line.

 

There is a trading path there that I can see but can't really explain.

 

I can't promise to deliver on this stuff, it is just stuff that might go somewhere, might go nowhere. Vague ideas.

PeriodRainbow2.thumb.PNG.988e8dac5e6c94af83956bcef7e297f6.PNG

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Vague ideas... no problem with that... all great inventions where originally vague ideas

 

let me see Pyenner what your first vague idea its all about... you have a very strong midline (magenta line ) it is a line in the sand... we could say that she represents some kind of center of all action and from that line we could expect centrifugal or centripetal action...

 

In this idea you are presenting a centripetal action (refreshing) to the magenta line.. and you are using the smaller vmas to time entries with some laddering... would this be the idea ? cheers Walter.

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Walter and PYenner...Great posts...very interesting and helpful information. Thanks for sharing this. Walter please keep the videos coming, your explainations help clear up many things. Somehow hearing it makes it much clearer for me than reading it (at least for me!). I wonder if there is a way to post the latest revisions of the fantail_vma for mt4 with a rev. number and some sort of description. I would like to begin testing with a demo account but am a little confused as to which version to try.

 

...one last thing...PYenner...would you mind giving us a phonetical pronunciation of your screen name. Is it "pie"-ner or "P" - Yenner...:\ no biggie...just curious. Thanks to both of you for all your hard work on this project...Armand

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The "horizontal effect" is the true backbone of the chimps epiphany...

 

without horizontal efect (HE) we are just presenting another regular TA method... but with the HE we are talking about something diferent, something with edge, something that opens to new research dimensions...

 

The HE tells us a lot of things... it tells us the shift of condition between cycle and trending..

 

Now when the HE finishes and the line starts to travel in one particular direction it is telling us that we may have some posible timing readings with this feature... I call that "Laddering"... you are having a ladder literally and its telling you, we may travel in that direction...

 

let me explain a little on next post with a video... cheers Walter.

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Walter and PYenner...Great posts...very interesting and helpful information. Thanks for sharing this. Walter please keep the videos coming, your explainations help clear up many things. Somehow hearing it makes it much clearer for me than reading it (at least for me!). I wonder if there is a way to post the latest revisions of the fantail_vma for mt4 with a rev. number and some sort of description. I would like to begin testing with a demo account but am a little confused as to which version to try.

 

...one last thing...PYenner...would you mind giving us a phonetical pronunciation of your screen name. Is it "pie"-ner or "P" - Yenner...:\ no biggie...just curious. Thanks to both of you for all your hard work on this project...Armand

 

Hi Armand

 

I mostly trade GBPJPY, Pound Yen to me, so the tag was Pee Yen er.

The real name is Bruce but I'm not Scottish either...:confused:

Not a biggie.

 

Yes, I risk confusing people with the vagueness of thoughts that are still forming and I probably should do a video for some of the stuff, but I'm no rock star or politician argh.

 

I'm kind of in limbo over which step to take next because the view ahead keeps shifting, and I'm also quite slow at programming.

 

Stay tuned, I hope I will get more focus.

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    • Date : 3rd December 2021. Market Update – December 3 – Pre-Omicron peak NFP? In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index remained range-bound, but was subsequently boosted by Yellen and Bostic’s speeches and closed at 95.97. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded 4 basis points to 1.44%. In terms of non-US currencies, the Euro hovered around 1.13 against the US Dollar; the British Pound closed up 0.16% to 1.3297 against the US Dollar; the US Dollar ended a 4-day losing streak against the Yen to close at 113.16; the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar have been hovering at low levels throughout the year and closed at 0.6813 and 0.7091 respectively; the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar remained stable at a high level of 1.28; the US Dollar and Swiss franc continued to test the previous low level of 0.92. In the precious metals market, spot gold fell below the 1770 level to $1769 per ounce; spot silver held steady above the 8-week low at $22.33 per ounce. In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep the output increase of 400,000 barrels per day unchanged in January next year. US crude oil fell to a minimum of 62.20 US dollars, and then rebounded more than 7% to 67.01 US dollars/barrel. Key recent events: The labor market has grown moderately, and the Dollar has regained support and rebounded. Yesterday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November fell further by 7,947 to 14,875, a record low since May 1993. In addition, as of the week of November 27, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of 222,000, which was lower than the market’s expectation of 240,000. After the data was released, its previous value was also revised down to an increase of 194,000 (previously an increase of 199,000). Judging from the four-week average, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 238,750, which was lower than the previous value of 251,000 (pre-revision: 252,250). Overall, these data reflect the continued moderate growth of the US labor market, and may benefit the non-agricultural data that will be released later today. The market predicts that after the November seasonal adjustment, the non-agricultural employment population will record an increase of 555,000, slightly higher than the previous value of an increase of 531,000, the unemployment rate will record a five-month consecutive decline to 4.5%, and the employment participation rate will rebound by 0.1% to 61.7%, the average weekly working hours remained at 5.0%, and the average hourly wage rate and monthly rate increased by 5.0% and 0.4%, respectively. In addition, the market will continue to track news about the Omicron virus strain. According to foreign media reports, cases of infection with the mutant strain have been found in the states of Minnesota and Colorado. However, despite the fact that Omicron has been pointed out as having a very high transmission capacity and leading to the risk of a further surge in infections, President Biden gave the market a shot in the latest speech and said that the government will not re-impose the lockdown measures. Judging from the known clues, the current Omicron variant is not likely to cause fatal symptoms to most patients (especially those who have been fully vaccinated), but because this new variant is still relatively new, uncertainty remains for now. In addition, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were hawkish. The former stated that it would be “prepared to abandon inflation temporarily” and that the strong US economy will prompt interest rate hikes; the latter stated that if inflation stays near 4% next year, the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. The US Dollar Index rebounded on the eve of the non-agricultural report and ended at 96.07. Today – EZ, UK, US Markit Services PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services, US Factory Orders, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Saunders, Fed’s Bullard Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.32%) From a high @ 1.6680 & slide to 1.6570 yesterday, back to resistance today at 1.6650. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram struggle with 0 line, RSI 56 & cooling. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily 0.0131. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 2nd December 2021. Market Update – December 2- Sentiment swings on Omicron news. Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK anti-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron   USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now. Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later. Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now. European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%. Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • You should never give in to the rumors as it could lead you to bankruptcy if it isn't true.
    • Yeah, and you should never stop learning. If you wish to survive in the Forex Market, the only way to do it is by learning all the time.
    • Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”. Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.   USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now. Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now. FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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