EURUSD: Euro Struggles to Rise Above 1.1850. Current 1.1790

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The first two European sessions of this week failed to see Euro above the exchange price of 1.1850. It seems that traders are happy to continue selling pullbacks as we get closer to the European Central Bank meeting scheduled for next Thursday, January 22 and the possibility of the adoption of some sort of a QE program. Next week will also see elections in Greece and ECB’s interest rate decision. As there’s not a lot of optimism in Eurozone at present time the pair is likely to test current weekly support levels at 1.1740 and later 1.16440. Should this sentiment change, a break above 1.1850 could see the pair advancing to 1.1950 – a near term resistance caused by last week’s gap.

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Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, joined Tip Tv and shared her observations on EUR/USD, USD and on the rate hike scenario in UK.

EUR/USD: Resilient – but why?

Foley believes that EUR/USD has stood supported despite Greece related headlines, only due to fall in risk appetite. The stock market scenario in China, the expected Fed rate hike plan and political issues globally have kept the risk appetite levels lower. EUR should be behaving like a decent funding currency, but all these political issues not giving much to the euro carry trade.

Foley further comments that, even the emerging market currencies are up versus the EUR, which goes against the carry trade idea, and is supporting EUR/USD.

See more at: EUR/USD resilient, but for how long?, BoE hike unlikely this year - Tip TV

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Zak Mir and Bill Hubard, were joined by Ben Gutteridge, Head of Fund Research at Brewin Dolphin, to discuss the outlook for the current global economy. People looking for higher quality growth stocks Gutteridge noted that there is a volume issue over the summer, but people aren’t in a value mind-set, the majority still want to attach themselves to higher quality growth stocks. Mir added that mid-cap stocks doing well such as Dominos or Just Eat. Emerging markets causing global problems Gutteridge outlined there is a need for caution within the UK economy which is heavily exposed to emerging economies, despite the UK doing well data wise. In terms of the equity market, he outlined that emerging markets and the commodity downward wave mean equities remain exposed, but not all fundamentals are negative. Gutteridge continued onto the US, where he believes the Fed will still move this year for a rate hike despite the situation in emerging markets, supported by the FOMC minutes. He added that when interest rates do go up, the first few hikes won’t see a change in bank accounts, just loan interest. ECB receive first payment from Greece, whilst EUR/USD not aiding exports in Europe Gutteridge highlighted the Greek situation, where the ECB have received the first payment today, and now he believes he can focus on other European fundamentals. However, he recognised that Greece isn’t on a path of debt sustainability. He moved on to the EURUSD, which at its current levels isn’t aiding exports, and despite being good for Germany, Gutteridge noted the lower level of competitiveness for peripheral European nations, with also the possibility of the Euro going lower. ECB monetary policy not getting tighter any time soon Gutteridge commented that it will not get tighter quickly, but we are seeing signs of improvement, such as Spain’s retail sales increasing and higher employment across the whole of Europe. Mir questioned this, who expects the ECB to come up with QE mark 2. To finish, he outlined that banks will have to move away from moderate lending to a more aggressive stance. - See more at: Monetary policy not tightening in the near future, QE mark 2 in Europe possible? | TipTV.co.uk