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In this Chart of the Week (COTW), I want to show why one trader who is focused on swing-trading would never consider buying and another that is focused on intra-day trading would. However, both traders would initially view the chart as bearish and both may have it on their watch list for a short sale the next day. In the above daily chart, we see a stock that has broken down under Major Support (MS), the 20-MA and the 200-MA. While the stock did form a Bottom Tail (BT) on the break lower, it never was able to trade above that high for several days. Over those days of basing, the stock formed two Topping Tails (TT) as buyers tried to get the stock above the 200-MA. With the formation of the last TT the price action did suggest that the stock would move lower and possibly the next trading day. For that reason, both the swing-trader and the intra-day trader would have a bearish view. Based on what had occurred at this point, the swing-trader would never consider buying stock with a chart like this the next day regardless of what it did at the open. However, the intraday trader having an understanding of gaps, multiple time frames as well as how bearish traders have become trapped would be willing to buy the stock in the short-term under the right conditions. Let's look at what it at the open and did happen. Rather than move lower at the open, the stock gapped up a small amount, rallied and closed above prior resistance and the daily TTs. To the intra-day trader this is a clear breakout with a Tradable Void above. It's a great long setup for that trader! The next step for the intra-day trader is to find an entry, which could be a Pristine Buy Setup (PBS) a Pristine Breakout (PBO) or any bullish pattern confirming the bullish breakout and signal of higher prices that should come. A textbook PBS formed at the 10 o'clock reversal period signaling that buyers did in fact step up on the pull back and prices were ready to move higher. While we cannot know for sure that prices would move as high as they did, there was the tradable void, so there was nothing to stop that from happening. Once the gap was filled, the odds increased that the stock would retrace then. Above is the completed daily chart of Altera Corp. (ALTR) as of the close on Friday February 1st. It's still not attractive for a swing trade, and at this point it's not of any interest to an intra-day trader either. It had a good day on Friday, but now the current pattern does not suggest good odds in either direction for either trader since the prior bearish daily price action has been neutralized and the gap filled. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

Trading today is more popular than ever. Countless individuals flock each year to the markets, hoping to make large amounts of money, many attracted by misleading commercials promising simplicity and easy access to riches. Many of these aspiring traders fail. In as much as we would like to think that each individual commits different and very particular mistakes in his quest for success, my experience as both a trader and Pristine Certified Trainer (PCT) has shown me that most traders typically fall prey to the same problems and mistakes. The following are just but some of the typical ones: Lack of a Trading Plan. Most traders lack a well conceived plan to trade the markets, and most mistakes committed by them can be summed up in this category. The lack of a decent plan means that the trader won't know which "events" to focus on, the rules to trade those events, money management rules, etc. Typical mistakes such as not taking stops and overtrading can be attributed to this problem. Lack of Confidence in his Tactics. Traders will only execute effectively if they're confident about the odds of any particular tactic. Learning it in a seminar isn't enough. You have to test it yourself, and reach a level of comfort and confidence that will allow you to execute with precision. Trading Under Monetary Pressures. Since people think that this is an easy road to riches, many leave their jobs or expect to make an immediate living trading the markets. Nothing is more detrimental to your success as a trader than facing the pressure to perform. Now, traders are focused on money, instead of technique and this leads to "dollar counting" which is detrimental to a traders progress. Trading with Insufficient Capital. Undercapitalized traders face two typical problems. One is the fact that they'll tend to take positions that will utilize a big percentage of their accounts, which in turn might produce losses that will be more significant than they should be. This is another reason why traders don't take stops. Lack of Proper Technology or Too Much Reliance on Only Technology. Traders that lack the proper technology, either because of the fear of using advanced systems or lack of commitment to obtaining them as a necessary cost of doing business, face a debilitating disadvantage as they can't process information quickly enough, and as we all know, this is a business that deals with the rapid analysis of information. On the other hand, there are those that think that technology alone, without the proper training and method, can solve their problems. An aspiring trader with no method, who just relies only on technology, is operating at a huge disadvantage. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach

Good Morning All: In the last issue, I gave you part two of a four part series. This series is a set of exact steps that will help you tremendously if you have the technical knowledge, but cannot seem to turn the corner on making good profits. There are four things that you can do that I feel will 'dramatically change your trading career'. The results will be immediate, every week, and this will be item number three. It should be stated again, that if you do not have the technical expertise, you are not at the level that these comments will help. If you don't know how to look at a chart, no amount of refining will help you. Where do you get this expertise? There is no better place than the Trading the Pristine Method Seminar. After a long time of working with many traders, one discovers that there are certain truths that cannot be denied. There are four things that are done so consistently wrong by new, and even fairly experienced traders, that each of these mistakes results in bad trades 90% of the time for most traders. If traders would simply follow these four rules, they would eliminate most of their losing trades. The fourth rule does not really fall into this "90%" category, but is perhaps the most important. Four Things That Will Change Your Trading Career: Part Three of Four Here is the third rule, and the subject of this lesson. Traders should always follow the power of the market (or an individual stock). When the market or stock is having a bullish day, the daily bar is green, and the intraday trends are up, buy pullbacks; do not play short. When the market or stock is having a bearish day, the daily bar is red, and the intraday trends are down, short the rallies; do not buy the pullbacks. This sounds simple, yet this rule actually addresses the number one mistake traders make in selecting plays. Most traders, especially newer traders, try to short strong stocks, or buy weak stocks. They try to 'short the top', or 'buy the bottom'. They may not even realize they have the problem. Most issues like this are not discovered unless the trader takes overt action to find the problem. Why would so many traders pick up such a bad habit? The answer is simple; it is the same problem that causes so many traders to not trade the way they want to trade. Psychological issues step in and cause the trader to trade improperly. Catching a bottom or a top in a stock makes a trader fell like a 'hero' when right. And, if they do get an occasional trade correct, that is all they remember. They forget the dozens of losses it took to get the one winner, and remember only the glory of 'shorting that one at its high'. There is a strategy for shorting a strong stock, or buying a weak stock, but it is only used when the stock goes 'climactic'. Unfortunately, this play seems to be difficult for most traders to recognize, and requires patience, something most new traders do not have. Below is an example. Would you short this pattern as a 'climactic sell setup' (CSS)? Many traders see patterns like this and feel that it just cannot go any higher. So they short the first red bar, at the '?'. Unfortunately, the usual result is shown below. As the stock advances, they realize that they were not just off, they were way off. They needed the patience to wait for this high at the new'?', above. Surely THIS, is a much better place to short; or is it? Well, maybe not. The stock did not drop at all, and after a little rest, it is back off to the races. As a matter of fact, it turns out that shortly after every 'short' attempt, the truly great play was to go long, even though it looked 'extended'. Bottom line, stay with the easy play. Look at all the money that could be made on the LONG side of this trade, yet so many traders are drawn to finding the top. It is often never found. This is not an unusual chart, I am sure you encounter this every day. Closing Comments The concept illustrated above refers to avoiding playing a stock against the power of a strong trend. It is also applicable to avoid shorting stocks in general, if the market is in a powerful trend (and the same for not going long on a 'red bar' day). While there are certain stocks that will drop on bullish days, they are much harder to find, and as a rule, drop much less. Next week we will look at the fourth 'secret' that will change your trading. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

Good Morning All: In the last issue, I gave you part three of a four part series. This series is a set of exact steps that will help you tremendously if you have the technical knowledge, but cannot seem to turn the corner on making good profits. There are four things that you can do that I feel will 'dramatically change your trading career'. The results will be immediate, every week, and this will be item number four. It should be stated again, that if you do not have the technical expertise, you are not at the level that these comments will help. If you do not know how to look at a chart, no amount of refining will help you. Where do you get this expertise? There is no better place than our famous Trading the Pristine Method Seminar. After a long time of working with many traders, one discovers that there are certain truths that cannot be denied. There are four things that are done so consistently wrong by new, and even fairly experienced traders, that each of these mistakes results in bad trades 90% of the time for most traders. If traders would simply follow these four rules, they would eliminate most of their losing trades. The fourth rule does not really fall into this "90%" category, but is perhaps the most important, and is the subject of today's discussion. Four Things That Will Change Your Trading Career: Part Four of Four It is time for the fourth and final rule of this series. As we have mentioned in the introductory paragraph of each of these four lessons, this is not really a 'new' rule. However, the first three rules are ineffective and worthless if you do not know the fourth rule. The fourth rule is to simply follow up to make sure that you are doing each of the first three rules properly. Now, DO NOT stop reading this and say, 'yea, yea, follow up, I know'. There is an exact procedure that must be followed. When this is followed, traders are always shocked and amazed at the results. 1. Print out the chart for the relevant time frame(s) for the trade you took. If it was a five minute Pristine Buy Setup, print the five minute chart. 2. Write the name of the strategy you played on the top of the chart. 3. Take a 'green' marker, and mark in the correct entry, stop, targets, and management, based on your trading plan. 4. Now take a 'red' marker, and mark in the actual entry and exits you had based on your trading records. 5. Now decide if the play you did was substantially correct according to your trading plan. If it was, write a 'good' on the top of the page. 6. If the play was not correct according to your plan, write a 'bad' on the top. 7. If the play was bad, put the reason why on top. Save these until the end of the week. Over the weekend, take all the 'good trades' and start a binder of good trades, saving the best examples of each of your strategies. We are very visual people, and learn best by pictures. Take all the 'bad' trades and categorize them by the reason they were bad. Take the number one mistake you committed that week, and do whatever necessary to resolve that problem the next week. Eliminate ONE mistake every week. Please keep a couple of important rules in mind. First of all, this process MUST be done at least 30 minutes AFTER the market closes. Traders often do not think properly when the market is open, and you will 'rubber stamp' any trade you do if you look at it soon after you close out the trade. The best case is to wait until that evening. Second, it is BEST to hand write on the chart. Print the chart, then use your own hand to write on the chart. Many like to use Power Point or other software, but the best learning will come from having all of your senses involved. If you must, it is better to do this on the computer than not at all, but try doing these by hand, as shown in the example above. This concludes a very important series of four lessons. If you are serious about your trading, see how well you currently do at these, and vow to follow them religiously for a week. You may be surprised. Closing Comments Even if you have not been following these four 'secrets', take the time to do this one. Print up some charts, and go through the procedure, even if you do not have good plan, or don't feel you even know what to look for. You will be shocked, and you will have a whole new perspective on the four things that were discussed over the last four weeks. I hope you have enjoyed this series of articles. Until next week, good trading. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

While there are many concepts and nuances to be learned to be a complete technical trader and/or investor, there are a few basic criteria that if followed can make making money easy or relatively easier. Of course, this requires having the patience and discipline to wait for these high probability setups to occur. Can you do it? I will show an example of what to look for. Then it's up to you. In the weekly chart of Google (GOOG), prices broke above price resistance with strong momentum. This was followed by the first pullback after that strength to Minor Support (mS). As a general rule, the first pullback to mS after a strong momentum break above resistance will always be buyable. This is based on the basic concept that resistance once broken will become support. This area of mS is where we know buyers will be. Now we wait to see the price action of that actually happening in this time frame and the daily time frame. This concept can be used in a combination of lower time frames as well. It also applies to any tradable instrument; that being Forex, E-minis, Commodities. The basics covered - Prices have made a strong move above price resistance and we wait for the first pullback to mS where buyers are. Then wait for confirming price action in that area. oving down to the daily time frame, GOOG was not looking bullish at all before the turn. However, realize that the lower time frame never looks bullish when the higher time frame is pulling back to mS. For example, if you saw the EUR/USD currency pair in a 60-min. uptrend that was pulling back to mS, the 5-min. time frame would be in a downtrend. The expectation is that the lower time frame is going to turn in the area of mS in the higher time frame. Now wait for confirming the price action in the lower time frame before taking a position. As GOOG moved into the mS area shown on the weekly time frame, the confirming price action began (in this time frame) with a gap higher and then a strong close into resistance. Here is where it gets interesting and it will become obvious if the big money buyers are continuing to step up. We want to see that big green bar's low and ideally its mid-point defended by the buyers. While the buy signal candle came five days later, it could have come after only two days. There is no set number and this is where our Bar by Bar analysis concept comes in to tell us when GOOG will move. Bar by Bar analysis combines each new bar's meaning within the context of our bigger picture analysis. One bar can be meaningless in of itself, but when combined with our bias and the other bars, it's a powerful concept. The basics covered - While our lower time frame is moving down, the higher time frame area of mS is where prices should produce the price action that confirms that area and reversal of some type happens. Reversals can happening in many ways, so do not be set on it having to happen in "your way." Once the action occurs find an entry signal using Bar by Bar analysis. I have shown you the basics of what to look for in those easy money situations using two time frames; I used the weekly and daily. We can also take that bias into the intra-day time frames as I explained above with EUR/USD, but it could be anything. Now, let's look at some detail that occurred on the 60-Min. of GOOG that showed the "early turn" and a couple of Pristine concepts to understand the price action of the turn. As GOOG was trending lower into the area of mS on the weekly time frame a 60-Min. bearish Wide Range Bar (-WRB) formed accompanied with a huge volume spike. That's a bearish event, but remember this was right into the weekly mS! That was followed by a stall and bullish Wide Range Bar (+WRB), that's a very bullish group of events that started the early turn. Pristine Tip: That 3-bar reversal was the Bottoming Tail (BT) on the daily time frame. The Advanced Candlestick reader understands how different arrangements of candles can mean the same thing in the same time frame and/or different time frames. Names of candlesticks are meaningless and are more likely to confuse traders that use them or worse by causing avoidable losses and/or missed opportunities. Once GOOG gapped up and ran higher a Pristine Price Void (PPV) was created. In other words, there was now no price support below for traders to bid at. Support would need to be "created" for traders to bid at. Creating support and resistance is a powerful concept used by Pristine Traded Traders (PTT) to see where the big money is entering prior to existing support or resistance. Pristine Tip: Strong upward price moves often do not pullback to support, they create it. With the bias from the time frames shown above, intra-day traders could move to lower time frames of their choice to find confirming buy setups to enter. At this point, this is still the case. Side note, while I have used a 20-MA on all time frames. It has no relevance to being actual support, resistance or the trend. It is simply a "visual aid" to speed the analysis once understood. PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched!!! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

As we near the end of the year, here is a look at the long-term to put the short-term gyrations in perspective. For the very bullish case, you want to see the markets consolidate at the top of the range. That is likely to be months. Pullbacks ideally hold the area of first support. A move to the area of second support makes the bullish case very questionable and would at least suggest a much longer period of consolidation. For the ultra-bearish, a clear break below last support, and tent-housing communities could be high-end living for many. All the best, PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched!!! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

This week I want to share with you one of the most enlightening moments in my learning process related to the use of trendlines. When I decided to educate myself about technical analysis and the markets there were no online trading seminars. There were no seminars at all, but if there were they wouldn't have been online since there was no internet. However, there were market letters that that came by snail-mail that did some education along with trade recommendations. All used trendlines in the analysis. Let's review what is taught about the use of trend lines and questions I had after using them. Trend line Analysis: A trend line needs at least two connecting points. A trend line with three or more points is stronger The trend line connecting points shouldn't be too close The trend line shouldn't be too steep or shallow An uptrend line will act as support A downtrend line will act as resistance A trend line once broken will have the opposite effect The break of a long existing trend line changes the trend Questioning the validity for trendlines: Should trendlines be drawn from bar extremes or the closes? Are trendlines drawn in a higher time frame stronger? Are intersecting trendlines a stronger reference point? Are trendlines valid in all time frames, even a 1-min.? Is a trend line drawn on an Arithmetic scaled chart more valid than those on a Semi-log scaled chart? Is the break of a trend line really a change in the trend? How many times can a trend line be redrawn? Can extending a line really predict where prices will reverse? My conclusion about the use of trendlines is that while widely used and have the potential to effect price movement on market indices especially, they are subjective as reference points of support and resistance at best and not needed. If you have used trendlines, had one break, seen prices reverse back in the original direction and you then redrew the line like I have. The question that came to my mind was, is it possible to "connect the dots" again and locate support and resistance? It didn't make sense, not common sense. The answer was no. The enlightening moment came when I realize that the analysis of support and resistance is not to be done diagonally, it has to be done horizontally. It was so simple, but all the hocus-pocus analysis taught made it so hard to get to that point. Besides the basic Trend Line there are Gann lines, Gann Box lines, Regression Channel lines. Median Lines, Andrews Pitchfork Lines, Fibonacci Circle lines, Fibonacci Fan Lines and it goes on and on. It should be no surprise why so many are confused about the use of technical analysis. Been there or there right now? Here what to do, simply look to the left and stop drawing lines! Let's review the trend lines and the real coming overhead resistance on some of the broader market indices. In the chart above of the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY, I drew the downtrend line. Clearly, prices ignored it like it was not there. Actually, it is only there for those that drew it, so it only exists as a reference point for them, in their minds; it's not real. What is real is the area in red, which is there for everyone. Somewhere in that box sellers are going to overcome buyers. Will that be for a day, two days? How far will prices drop? That's the unknown. Right now there is no pattern to suggest that. The only thing known is that the area to the left is resistance and the move up has the greatest odds of stalling in the box. In the chart above the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, I drew the downtrend line and we see that prices did stall at the line before moving higher. Was the line the reason? No it was not, it was the small area of price resistance to the left. Resistance does not mean prices have to go lower. Especially, when prices have fallen for a while as these did into an area of Major Support (MS) (not shown) where buyers will show up. The Qs entered into the area of price resistance Friday and sellers are going to show up in there. The 200-MA is also in the box and while subjective as a reference point of resistance, it is a widely followed point of reference. Notice the number of overlapping candles that are directly to the left of it and the unfilled gap. n the chart above of the Russell 2000 ETF symbol IWM, I drew the downtrend line. Odds are prices are going to stall there and trend line users will point to that. Why will prices stall there? Because price resistance is to the left and the other markets are coming into resistance also. It just happens to work out this way once and a while. Technical analysis does not have to be complicated; however, we have a tendency to follow what is when it comes to the markets. I did years ago, but eventually realized the majority of what is taught is nonsense. I don't know how all this nonsense started, but it's been going on a long time and continues. Most do not side-step this black hole on the way to finding the truth, if they ever do. You don't have to or can get out of it now. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

Over the years, I've seen many TV commentators, newsletter writers, self-proclaimed market gurus, chat room moderators and of course, traders call a bottom. Most of them being early on their call and/or entry are caught on the wrong side of the trend. However, they always have follow up calls to get long in hopes of catching the elusive bottom. I'll show you how elusive - it isn't. What is baffling is, bottoms are one the easiest patterns to spot, so why not wait for it to setup? Of course that would take some trading education, which most people resist spending money on until they have lost some money - or a lot it. But how senseless is it to be calling and risking money on a reversal without any evidence of one? Don't expect this to ever change and we don't want it to. The bottoming pattern happens not only because of accumulation, it is also because of the early buyers capitulating. Let's review some examples. In the charts above are various tradable instruments. I chose bottoming patterns in stocks, commodities, currencies and the broader markets indices. It does not matter what you trade, this happens the same way in all tradable instruments. As prices move lower within a downtrend they will begin to accelerate lower near its end. This is seen through multiple bars moving down with little overlap between them and/or wide range bars. At some point, the move lower will be rejected and prices will spring back up. The spring up typically is shallow and does not violate the trend by overcoming Major Resistance (MR). What follows is a consolidation and pullback that will retest the original low. At times, the original low point of the move will be violated; however, all moves higher that initiated from the retest should have multiple bars moving higher into MR or above it and may have bullish Wide Range Bars (+WRB) as well. Pristine Tip: Multiple bars moving in one direction with little overlap between them are a Wide Range Bar in a higher time frame. The bottoming process can go on for a relatively long period of time depending on the time frame being viewed. Longer time frames will form bottoms over a longer period of time and vice versa for shorter. That being said, the Pristine Trained Trader (PTT) knows that the odds of the bottoming pattern having high odds of making a significant move depends on the alignment of multiple time frames and where the bottom sets up. Let's look at an example of a stock that should form a bottoming pattern soon. In the chart above, I have displayed multiple time frames of ROSS Stores (ROST). The monthly time frame is in a strong uptrend and pulling back where buyers will show up. That pullback is coming into first price support (green area), which may be hard to see to the untrained eye in this time frame. What I have marked on the monthly as price support is the overlapping candles in the $50 dollar area. Pristine Tip: Overlapping candles in a higher time frame are a base in a lower time frame. See the base in the weekly time frame at the left. Notice the increase in volume last week as current prices neared the base of price support. That pick up in volume is exactly what we want to see when prices enter into a price support area. The daily time frame of ROST is clearly in a downtrend and has not formed a bottom. However, Thursday's gap lower on increased volume that resulted in the formation of a Bottoming Tail (BT) is a typical exhaustion gap. This gap lower and BT could be the start of the bottoming process; time will tell. Exhaustion gaps come after a period of declining prices and signal that the last of the traders/investors hoping that prices would hold and turn higher have given up hope and are dumping their shares. With the current correction in the broader markets ongoing, I hope this Chart of the Week will help you what to look for. There may be stocks that have shown relative strength and have started the bottoming process already. You will have to scan for them, but now you know what to look for! Many new to trading the markets are lured into thinking that one market is a better market to trade than another. Those trying to sell you their services related to a specific market will guide you to that faulty thinking. For example, FOREX is a better or easier market to trade than individual stocks or equity e-minis. This is completely false. Any market can be difficult at times because of uncertainty related to that market resulting in choppy price action. Or, any market can be relatively easy to trade when multiple technical concepts are in alignment. With the right trading education - you can trade any market or stock you want with the same method. Remember, the examples of bottoming patterns above were from Stocks, Commodities and Currencies. There is no difference. Yes, different instruments have basic foundational information related to them, but that information is not what you will trade. It's the patterns within the trends at the time that you will trade. Happy Thanksgiving to All! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

Good Morning All: Over the years, I have written many articles. Hundreds, maybe even thousands if you include partial repeats and every short lesson. Sometimes the lesson is a partial re-write, or a new take, or a new way to explain or organize the information. While there are many summaries out there on various topics, and while the topics on this lesson may be found somewhere else, I began last week answering a very direct question. What causes failure in trading? This will be a no-nonsense, nuts and bolts look at the question, not a philosophical dissertation. I will discuss the top three over three letters. Last week I discussed 'discipline'. Today I will discuss the second of the three reasons for failure. To clarify again, most people actually fail because they do not get an education. However, that is decision people make. I want to discuss why the people who really try, can still fail. Last week I opened here telling you of an inescapable truth I discovered long ago. Everyone who enters trading is exactly the same, and stay the same for a long time. Reason number two for failure continues that tradition. Reason number two, is the lack of, or the inability to, focus. Yes, all of these topics are somewhat interrelated. Nevertheless, they each also have their own merit. Discipline and lack of focus are not the same thing. You may not have focus due to a lack of discipline, but you may not have focus by design. Many traders come to the market with the view that they have to become the master of all around them. They feel they need to learn about economic data, currency rates, foreign politics, and the list goes on. When traders learn technical analysis, the feel the need to put everything to use. I have seen trading plans that have 14 strategies spelled out for a new trader. Yet, all of that information is not going to change what a stock does that gaps over a red bar and pulls back to minor support. It will not change what happens to a stock that is in a perfect 15-minute uptrend. Closing Comments: Perhaps you have read the book "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. You should take note of the point of the book. In this book, the author sets out to interview 25 successful traders to determine what they have in common. He wants to find out what strategy it is that they all do, or how the strategies are similar. He finds two things that all traders have in common. One of them, the one we care about, was that no two did anything remotely similar in strategy, however, they all focused on one unique thing, waited for it to happened, and did only that. Focus. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

In last week's Chart of the Week (COTW), I explained why there would not be a severe market correction any time soon. However, I did tell you short term the odds are that a minor correction is not that far off as we are coming into what is historically the most bearish time of the year. That being said, we need a common sense way of measuring the likelihood of a historical cycle repeating, rather than blinding following history. Let's look. For a short-term correction to occur there has to be a reason for that to happen, other than just the time of year. Many seasonal periods have failed to produce the expected based on the past. Here is what else has to be in alignment with this time of year. First, in an uptrend, the Void of price resistance has to be closed. Without an area of price supply to the left, prices aren't likely to pullback much. Second, the majorities have to be willing to take on a historical high level of risk with bets that the trend will continue after having doubting it. This is seen through an acceleration of prices moving higher and an increase in speculative leveraged bets. In other words, the trend is now obvious to the latecomers and they are entering close to the worst possible time. This started happening last week. In the chart above, prices of the S&P 500 measure by the ETF symbol SPY began accelerating higher the week before last and are nearing resistance. This resistance is also the all-time highs from 2007, so this area will be an obvious point that all will focus on. So why are so many increasing their buying into an area where selling will show up? It always happens that way and I believe that it's just human nature to ignore the obvious risk when greed kicks in. There is also the fear on the part of money managers that they have missed the move and are jumping in. The second component needed is speculative leveraged betting and there is no place better to measure that than with the activity of options traders. The chart above displays the number of put options traded verses call options in equities on each day and a 5-day moving average of those daily closes. The 5-day moving average and the daily close have reached a historical level where short-term corrections are not far off. Combined with the upward momentum into prices resistance it tells us that the odds of a short-term correction are high during this bearish yearly time. Historical cycles in the market can be a good guide to timing change, but alone they are not enough. It's the combination of technical concepts and market internals with historical cycles that make them valuable information. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

We believe in the 80/20 principle in many aspects of life, including trading (i.e., 20% of the workers do 80% of the work; traders will make 80% of their money in 20% of the time, etc.). So the key, then, is to determine when to SOH (Sit on Hands), and when to trade more aggressively (push the throttle), and take 2x to 3x the normal share size, provided your Trading Plan permits. Here are a few of my considerations when deciding to get more aggressive on the long side (opposite for shorts): Is the market environment what we call a "green light day?" For this, we focus on the trend of the broader markets and following market internals. Imagine if the SPY, DIA, and QQQ were all quality patterns on the weekly, daily and hourly charts, with multiyear monthly major support? Is the TICK bullish, with support at 0 on the day, and oscillating above 0? Is the TRIN bullish, in a tight range below .5? If so, you should be diligently searching for high odds, quality patterns to trade long for day trades and swings. Next, the reliability of the pattern is key. You want a stock showing relative strength to the sector and broader markets, and a pattern that delivers a huge reward-risk (i.e., huge target with a small stop). Remember, you must always be asking yourself how much risk you are assuming in relation to the desired target. When you see the high odds patterns that you recognize, and the internals support longs, you should be ready at the keyboard and possibly "Push the Throttle", in alignment with your trading plan. Finally - are you a good trader? Do you have enough experience in the market and are you hitting your goals? DO NOT PUSH THE THROTTLE if you are having a bad day or bad week or bad month. DO NOT PUSH THE THROTTLE if you are still in the early stages of learning and losing consistently. Don't worry, your time will come. But the key is to keep yourself from BLOWING UP your accounts while you are learning. The bottom line is that if you are losing, any urges you get to PUSH THE THROTTLE may be result of revenge trading or frustration. It will do nothing but beget more frustration and larger losses. KNOW YOURSELF. So, if you are 'hot' and you are 'seeing the market' well and have been doing well following your plan and successful, then you may consider PUSHING THE THROTTLE. I find that when I "Push the Throttle" my win percentage skyrockets - only because I have experience and these days and trades are HUGE winners. But if you are NOT there yet, and you know whether you are or not, DO NOT DO IT. Manage to your plan and gain consistency and profitability thru great market experience and review, and you will be ready to PUSH THE THROTTLE when the time presents itself. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach

In last week's Chart of the Week (COTW), I explained why there would not be a severe market correction any time soon. However, I did tell you short term the odds are that a minor correction is not that far off as we are coming into what is historically the most bearish time of the year. That being said, we need a common sense way of measuring the likelihood of a historical cycle repeating, rather than blinding following history. Let's look. For a short-term correction to occur there has to be a reason for that to happen, other than just the time of year. Many seasonal periods have failed to produce the expected based on the past. Here is what else has to be in alignment with this time of year. First, in an uptrend, the Void of price resistance has to be closed. Without an area of price supply to the left, prices aren't likely to pullback much. Second, the majorities have to be willing to take on a historical high level of risk with bets that the trend will continue after having doubting it. This is seen through an acceleration of prices moving higher and an increase in speculative leveraged bets. In other words, the trend is now obvious to the latecomers and they are entering close to the worst possible time. This started happening last week. In the chart above, prices of the S&P 500 measure by the ETF symbol SPY began accelerating higher the week before last and are nearing resistance. This resistance is also the all-time highs from 2007, so this area will be an obvious point that all will focus on. So why are so many increasing their buying into an area where selling will show up? It always happens that way and I believe that it's just human nature to ignore the obvious risk when greed kicks in. There is also the fear on the part of money managers that they have missed the move and are jumping in. The second component needed is speculative leveraged betting and there is no place better to measure that than with the activity of options traders. The chart above displays the number of put options traded verses call options in equities on each day and a 5-day moving average of those daily closes. The 5-day moving average and the daily close have reached a historical level where short-term corrections are not far off. Combined with the upward momentum into prices resistance it tells us that the odds of a short-term correction are high during this bearish yearly time. Historical cycles in the market can be a good guide to timing change, but alone they are not enough. It's the combination of technical concepts and market internals with historical cycles that make them valuable information. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.

"You must be rigid in your rules and flexible in your expectations. Most traders are flexible in their rules and rigid in their expectations". This is from Mark Douglas in his book, "Trading in the Zone". When I first read the above-mentioned book years ago, I did not highlight or remember this quote as anything special. It was not until recently when I saw it again that I had the experience to recognize the pure wisdom in the words. That is the reason I am devoting this commentary to this quote, so everyone reading can recognize its importance. The reason I feel this advice is so important is because two of the most common problems among new or struggling traders are addressed here. The first problem raised is that most traders are flexible in their rules. Actually, the truth is most traders do not even have a firm set of rules they trade by. Sure, if you ask most traders they will say that they follow stops, and set targets. But very few have the rules that are generated by a quality trading plan. Those that do, usually view them as optional, which really defeats the purpose of having rules. The second problem is that traders are rigid in their expectations. They form or acquire a market bias, or a 'feeling' about a particular stock, and hold to that expectation regardless of what the chart (reality) is telling them. When good news is released, they go long the stock and stay steadfast in their bullish view; even though the chart (reality) is telling them the stock is falling. Some say that you can't follow rigid rules, because trading requires your expectations to be flexible and change as needed, as the second part of the quote implies. Obviously, I agree that trading requires you to be flexible. I just believe that all of the contemplated flexibility can be part of your plan and your rules. For example, you can decide ahead of time and define what a 'change in market direction' is and then define how you react to that new information. You could react by selling all of your position, selling half, raising the stop, etc. I hope that those of you that have not embraced these concepts take new look at the quote above and use it to help improve your trading. Jared Wesley Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap and Intra-Day Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach

Over the more than 20 years that I have studied and traded the markets there have always been advisors with an opinion that the market is close to a crash or a severe drop. While these opinions often come with relatively convincing reasons, the majority of times it has not happened. Wouldn't you like to know when the risk in the market is high based on historical facts, rather than another's opinion? I did and I'm going to show you what to use. As the markets approached the recent prior highs it was a reasonable assumption that selling would increase - and it did. However, it wasn't reasonable to assume that selling was going to produce a severe decline. Before we get to why, if you didn't read the prior Chart of the Week (COTW) please do that. In it I explained how Pristine students learn to recognize when support and resistance reference points are created and how to use them. If you used this simple, but powerful concept you would have known when and where bullish traders were taking a stand. You would have also known that the odds of the market moving higher after the retest had increased. Thursday's big move up tells me that those short had no idea or were in denial of the growing strength. Okay, let's get to the big picture. As we know, the market has a strong tendency to do the opposite of what the majority believe will happen. The question is, how to know when the opinion of most investors has become too bullish or to bearish? That's easy to know, if you know where to look. Each week at the website www.AAII.com individual investors vote their opinion as to whether they are bullish, bearish or neutral on the market. In the chart above, the green line displays the percentage of those that are bullish; the red line displays the percentage of those that are bearish and the blue line is a moving average of those bullish divided by those that are bullish plus those that are bearish. This provides us with a ratio that when at historical extremes it warns us when too many investors are bullish or bearish. As you can see from the chart, the blue line still has a ways to go before too many investors become bullish. The historical data for this and many other market internals, which are automatically updated on a daily and weekly basis, are available from www.pinnacledata.com. The next chart shows the spread or difference between 30-year long-term interest rates and 3-month short-term interest rates is at the top. In the lower half, it shows the weekly closing price of the S&P 500. As you can see, when the difference nears zero and below the risk of a severe market correction is very high. There are other factors to consider for market timing, especially short-term timing, but these two gauges will serve you well as a long-term guide for market risk. When both are at extremes, too many bullish and the difference between long and short-term interests below zero history tells us big trouble is not that far off. The above chart is a bull market (choppy at times) and until our long-term guides turn bearish history tells us that it makes no sense at all to even remotely think crash or severe correction. Short-term, the odds are that a minor correction is not that far off since we are coming into what is historically the most bearish time of the year. After that comes a bullish period, and assuming our internal guides are bullish - the markets will move higher. You might think that the markets have more than doubled since the lows shown in 2009 and they cannot move even higher. However, that's human reasoning. We know that doesn't work in the markets and why we need to use tools like I've shown you as a guide. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.