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Gamera
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Posts posted by Gamera
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At the MP of the previous days low and overnight high.
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A bit more movement during the day.
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Given that you have been at this for three months now, what have you learned?I'm struggling.
1. I've become hesitant and often have an element of doubt around my analysis of where the opportunities lie, this often leads to me taking the second entry and puts me under pressure as I want extra confirmation.
2. At times I "feel" that my rules are overly rigid and pull me from the behaviour which often indicates a change before a stride break or swing point break. I've been sticking with this for the most part as I do not want to bring "I thought, I felt, I hoped" into the discussion.
Spent the last week or so reading through old threads and I am trying to shift focus to the behaviour.
3. I am uncertain that expectations are realistic, price at the minute rarely seems to go, it quite often futzes around not really rejecting or confirming the hypothesis. If I pick out the opportunities right my expectation is that it will "go".
I am not adapting very well to the current intraday conditions, I may need more patience as I am scratching trades that work out, but, this probably falls into expectation.
4. Market keeps grinding higher and is not giving much in the way of trading ops on the weekly and daily, even the hourly rarely revisits former levels, but, there is a lot of backfill and chop and generally indecisive PA around levels that meant something at some point (intraday or overnight).
5. My overall application is poor and my mentality has likely become slightly skewed, I'm prone to overthinking during a trade, but for the most part indifferent,I struggle with the entries at times.
I'm sure there's more to it but the above has been the most pressing.
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Prep for the day ahead, PA has not done much overnight and is at the MP of the range of this inactivity.
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Upper limit of the PM range was tested with the failure just prior to open.
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Prep for the day ahead, price is still rallying to new highs.
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I was had very little focus as the open came about and was unable to react to what I saw, took notes for a short period of time then quit for the day. No trades.
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Market still grinding higher as open approaches.
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Market heads higher but intraday PA seems choppy.
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Prep for the day ahead.
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After trade 1 price spent the session in a range that was a little on the choppy side for my liking.
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PA has not progressed from the previous days chop.
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Sat out after the failure of the second trade as it seemed like a choppy day was again on the cards.
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PA has spent most of the night in a tight range.
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Shutdown after trade 3 as I had low expectations given the time of day.
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Price continues higher as the open approaches.
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Pretty dull day that got duller as the session unfolded.
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Price has broken to new highs, not much in notes as I'm trying not to set a bias for the day ahead.
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Gamera, Do you think dbP would also rate you at 7 (on a scale of 0 (not) to 10 (very)) on how congruently your method and trading mirrors the intended essence of the SLA method?Have a great weekend all
I try not to assume I know what others think, however, Db would likely agree that my execution is poor and not a true representation of the method.
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Took two shorts that failed to go anywhere and then sat out as there seemed to be little in the way of direction.
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Range has expanded slightly, possibility of mean reversion, time will tell.
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More trades and I think slightly better application.
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Whilst the previous day was interesting, too many distractions led to an observation only day. Prep for the day ahead is a little bare bone on the lower time frame.
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Gamera, On a scale of 0 (not) to 10 (very) - how congruently would you say your method and trading mirror the intended essence of the SLA method?Probably a 7, I am doing a pretty poor job of executing consistently and give my thoughts/fears too much sway when it comes to the decision making process.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts in the earlier post, there are a few things I am still thinking over on that, there is a reasoning behind the multiple time frames and I'll try to explain them in another post.
Testing Times.
in The Wyckoff Forum
Posted · Edited by Gamera
answering question
Db,
Observation appraisal was largely covered elsewhere as for the back-testing, briefly, Whilst my win rate was not particularly high (40%) my average win was around 2.5-3x my average loss, I had issues regarding identifying chop early and would overtrade when price was indecisive. I might not have been positive at the end of a session but by the end of the week and month things were heading up. I was catching most of the bigger moves and managing them in a way that kept me in for the duration and I was doing this consistently by following a plan.
Not sure exactly what Jan'16 writing you are referring to.
I was going well first half of '16 and felt I had a solid footing, got knocked out of action start of Q3 which took me longer than anticipated to recover from which meant I lost 6 months. Got back into things in January back-testing a months worth of PA which did not quite match earlier results but still positive before switching over to current market.
I feel I have regressed a bit in terms of development and while I am trying to blow out the cobwebs I have become overly mechanical (overlooking behaviour) and waiting on metrics. I am going back a step on this as I think it was a step in the wrong direction.
Gamera.
With regard to yesterday's charts, what are longer-term traders looking at?
Added charts regarding the weekly and daily, since the April low price has been charging higher without much pause. Prior to yesterdays open there was the hourly range that I posted and the daily high just above that covered on the hourly part of the chart.