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GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold remains a bear market, with the price breaking more and more support levels gradually. In this market, occasional rallies should be seen as opportunities to sell short when the price is high in the context of the downtrend. This month, bears would try to target the support levels at 1150.00, 1140.00 and 1130.00 respectively. The expectation would be valid as long as the resistance level at 1190.00 is not overcome by bulls. Therefore, long trades are not recommended this month, unless the aforementioned resistance level is breached to the upside and price closes above it. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Since May 2015, Silver has been in a perpetual downtrend; though slowly and gradually. Price would move sideways for some time, and then break out to the downside, and then move sideways for some time, and then break out to the downside again. Long trades are currently illogical in this market, unless the supply level at 17.0000 is overcome (and price trends further upwards from there). Without this condition being fulfilled, any upwards bounce this month could be a decoy for the unwary bulls, as this is the market in which bears thrive. The demand levels at 15.0000 and 14.0000 could be tested easily this month.

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Current events in the Eurozone will continue to shape the movement of EURUSD and other EUR pairs this week. Last week, price opened with a gap-down of about 200 pips before an upward bounce of over 300 pips occurred on Monday. On Tuesday, price began to go south and tested the support line at 1.1050 on Wednesday. After that, price consolidated till the end of the week. This week, EURUSD and other EUR pairs could open with gaps, and of course, the gaps would be followed by strong movements in case they occur. The outlook on EURUS D is bearish: unless the resistance line at 1.1250 is overcome, further southward movement is expected. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument traded downwards on Monday, reaching the support level at 0.9250. Form that level, price went north by 250 pips, testing the resistance level at 0.9500. Once the resistance level was tested, a bearish correction took price lower by another 100 pips. Last week, price closed around the support level a 0.9400, but it is likely that price would rally again. The bias is bullish as long as the support level at 0.9250 is not breached to the downside. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Following the recent sideways movement, Cable broke out to the downside, going below the distribution territory at 1.5600. The accumulation territory at 1.5500 is an easy target for bears, for there is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market right now. Should price go further southward, another accumulation territory at 1.5400 would be attained. However, this does not rule out the possibility of rally attempts. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral There is not yet any significant movement on USDJPY, as price only oscillates between the supply level at 124.00 and the demand level at 122.00. The present market condition is thus great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Eventually price would either break out above the supply level at 124.00 or below the demand level at 122.00, after which there would be a significant movement. It should be noted that the most probable direction for July 2015 is bearish. This is also true of most other JPY pairs. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish At the open of the market last week, this cross experienced a gap-down of about 400 pips as it slammed into the demand level at 134.00. Immediately after this, price rose sharply by over 400 pips, testing the supply zone at 138.00. Price then got caught in an equilibrium phase for the rest of the week. This week, the conditions of the Eurozone will also determine what happens on this cross, because whatever happens to EUR/USD will cause almost identical movement on this cross. A southward movement is most likely. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Give the market time to develop once you have defined your stops and profit targets. You cannot control the market anyway. It is certainly no coincidence that we have had reports from many traders telling us that they have not only achieved better results with simple no-frills trading, but have also felt better.” – Marko Graenitz

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Because of the events in the Eurozone, EUR pairs might open with gaps this week and in case the gaps happen, they would harbinger great volatility in the markets for the rest of the week. EURUSD trended downwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bearish and a bearish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. The possible breakout would happen when the support line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside as price goes further downwards to other support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000. A movement above the resistance line at 1.1300 would render this expectation invalid. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair trended upwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bullish and a bullish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. This week, the sanguine bulls would try to keep price moving upwards, and so, the possible breakout would happen when the resistance level at 0.9400 is broken to the upside as price goes further upwards to other resistance levels at 0.9450 and 0.9500. On the other hand, a movement below the resistance line at 0.9200 would render this stated possibility illogical. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable came down by roughly 200 pips last week – a threat to the extant bullish bias. Price then moved in an equilibrium phase till the close of the market on Friday, June 26, 2015. There is now a very high probability that this market (and most other GBP pairs) would become seriously weak, starting from this week and in the first half of July 2015. The current bullish bias would be valid only as long as price is above the accumulation territory at 1.5650. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument is currently consolidating. Price is generally moving/oscillating between the supply level at 124.50 and the demand level at 122.50. It would normally be expected that price would eventually break above the aforementioned supply level or demand level, paving way for a sustained trending move. A strong southward movement is highly possible in the month of July 2015. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just like EURUSD, this cross first trended downwards last week before moving sideways. Whatever happens to Euro (such as gaps, strong movement), would have similar impact on this cross. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a strong bearish trend is probable in July. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “When you trade from a carefree state of mind, everything about your trading changes. Remember, that the primary skill that we are talking about here is simply trading without fear. This is a trading skill. It is the primary trading skill that you will have to acquire to create consistency – to trade without fear.” – Mark Douglas

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD first consolidated last week; then it broke upwards, closing above the support line at 1.1300. The bias is still bullish and price could test the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. Failure to do this could lead to a drop in the price, and therefore, the condition of USD would be the greatest determinant of the movement of EURUSD for the rest of this month. Only a significant weakness in USD may help EURUSD maintain its current bullish bias. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair was able to break below the resistance level at 0.9250 (which bears could not breach in the first two weeks of June 2015). Since then, price has moved below another resistance level at 0.9200. The support level at 0.9150 was tested last week and it could be tested again, especially with more selling pressure in the market. That support level could even be breached to the downside. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBP is really strong, and the evidence can be seen on most GBP pairs. Cable moved upwards by 350 pips last week, and it has moved upwards by 650 pips this month. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is currently being besieged and it might end up being slashed by bulls. Another possible target is the distribution territory at 1.5950. However, Cable must now be approached with caution because it is possible that the pair would become weak before the end of this week or this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This market first moved sideways last week. On June 17, there was a false bullish breakout, which made the market go upwards by 100 pips before bears came in to force it lower. The market is now close to the demand level at 122.50, which may be breached to the downside anytime. It should be borne in mind that this market is expected to trend lower and lower in the month of July 2015: hence any rallies in the short-term could well bring short-selling opportunities. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross did not make any large movement last week, though the outlook remains bullish. The bullish outlook itself is not very strong. So, any movement below the demand zone at 138.00 would mean the end of the bullish outlook, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This is a condition that would signify the bearish power on the cross. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “My opinion is that traders who have long been around and keep learning, will establish themselves automatically.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 7 “I appreciate the opportunity to manage money for others. A lot of people don’t enjoy it, but I do.” – Mike Melissinos Name: Sam Zell Date of Birth: September 27, 1941 Nationality: American Occupation: Business magnate, investor and philanthropist Career Sam’s parents were Jewish immigrants who left Poland to settle in the States before the outbreak of the World War II. Sam was born in Chicago and he attended Highland Park High School in Highland Park, Illinois. He obtained a BA from the University of Michigan and later, he obtained a JD (Juris Doctor) from the University of Michigan Law School. In 1967, Sam founded Equity Group Investments. Bob Lurie Robert H. Lurie joined him and they worked together to transform the firm into a vast business empire. Lurie died in 1990, but the business continues to grow and grow and grow. One source confirms that the majority of Sam Zell’s investment portfolio ranges across industries such as energy, logistics, communications and transportation, but he is often best known for his pioneering role and stewardship in creating the modern commercial real estate industry. Moreover, EGI’s holdings also include fixed-income investments in public and private companies. Sam is involved in various international and local causes, donating generously to them, including education. He’s blessed with 3 children. As of January 2015, Sam was worth about $4,900,000,000. Insights: 1. Good traders and investors are able to tackle the uncertainties in the markets, solving the problems of the unpredictable nature of the markets in simple ways. That’s the secret of our ongoing success. We make complex problems (that put off people from the markets) look simple. We simplify these problems and come with simple solutions. That’s exactly what Sam has been doing in decades – unraveling the mystery of various markets and amassing huge wealth by doing so. 2. There’s one though-provoking quote on Egizell.com, which says: “Solid business strategy is not anchored in suit, or a tie. It comes from the gut. Corporate culture can’t be dictated. It comes from the soul. A great company comes from the heart.” How true is it! 3. The qualities of a good trader aren’t measured by her/his attitude when things are right, when things are fine, and during winning streaks; but when the road is rough, tough and during losing streaks. Conclusion: Winning strategies are the ones that go contrary to the expectation of the public, and that’s why it takes serious discipline to follow such strategies. We want to follow good strategies when they work and when they don’t work. This article is concluded by a quote from Sam: “The reality is that I need to be challenged and interested, as long as the risk and reward is in line.”

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is still in a bullish mode in spite of the effort of bears to pull price down. There are support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050 and a downside breach of the support lines would result in a new bearish outlook. There are also resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450: an upside breach of those resistance lines would result in further confirmation of the existing bullish mode. However, even if the market moves further upwards, it is more likely that it would become weak by the end of this week or before the end of this month. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish On USDCHF, last week was characterized by desperate struggles between the bull and the bear. The bear is still strong enough to check the bull from realizing his objectives and as such, the bias on the market remains bearish. A movement below the support level at 0.9250 would result in a stronger bearish propensity, especially when price closes below the support level and moves further south towards another support level at 0.9200. This is because price could not close below the support level at 0.9250 last week, and a movement below it would mean that the bear is stronger. However, any significant weakness in EURUSD, which may happen before the end of this month, would cause USDCHF to rally seriously. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable rallied by 300 pips last week, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5550. Further upward movement is possible, enabling price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5700. However, a strong bearish trend is anticipated on Cable (and other GBP pairs) before the end this week or this month. This bearish trend might also be in force in most of July 2015. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument has already gone bearish – though the bulls are fighting a losing battle to reverse the trend. Price tested the demand level at 122.50, and then bounced upwards. Though a movement above the supply level at 125.00 could challenge that new bearish signal, the upward bounce could also bring an opportunity to sell short at a better price. In case of further southward movement, price could breach the demand levels at 122.50 and 121.50 to the downside. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish On Friday, June 12, 2015, this cross closed at 139.00. The outlook on the market is currently bullish, though threatened. Price needs to move upwards in order to save the bullish outlook. A breach of the demand zone at 138.00 could result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and as such, price should not go below that demand zone; otherwise the recent bullish outlook would be rendered invalid. This cross, plus other JPY pairs, has a high probability of becoming weak by the end of this month and in most of July 2015. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “…The only truth is the chart. Don't ever listen to the news without looking hard and long at the chart. The chart is the truth. Nothing else is the truth.” – Scott Brown ]