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analyst75

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by analyst75

  1. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold generally consolidated from August 1 to 19, 2016; and then began moving south perpetually. The southwards movement was significant enough to have brought about a bearish bias on the market. Price has gone down 3500 pips since August 22, making it illogical to seek short trades right now. Further bearish movement is anticipated for September 2016, which may enable price to reach the demand levels at 1290.00, 1280.00 and 1270.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant: Bearish Silver decline from August 1 to 26, and then moved sideways till the end of the month. This has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, as price reached a high of 20.7500 and a low of 18.3550 in August. Further southward movement is possible this month, and price could test the support levels at 18.5000, 17.5000 and 16.5000 before the end of the month. Nonetheless, there would be a bullish reversal sometime in future, which may also affect Gold BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Neutral Bitcoin remained a flat market throughout August 2016, save the bearish movement it underwent on the last day of July and the first few days of August. Price has been volatile on smaller timeframes and it is directionless. This sideways movement may continue in September, but a serious directional movement would soon happen, which would most probably favor bears. The short term outlook is neutral and the long term outlook is bearish. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  2. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on this pair is precariously bullish. Price came down 120 pips on Friday, in the context of a weak uptrend. A movement below the support line at 1.1100 would result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, while a movement above the resistance line at 1.1350 would strengthen the ongoing bullish bias on the pair. This week would determine whether things would turn bearish or things would become more bullish in the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was prognosticated last week, a short-term weakness of CHF (which was weak versus other majors as well), coupled with a noticeable bullish effort on EURUSD, was able to cause a rally on USDCHF, which rallied 170 pips last week. USD also became strong in its own right, especially on Friday, August 26, 2016. Therefore, USDCHF would continue going up as long as the factors mentioned above continue to favor it, which might cause a Bullish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market; otherwise there would be a serious pullback. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD is bullish in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Price went north 200 pips to test the distribution territory at 1.3250, before it experienced a pullback on Friday. However, the short-term bias remains bullish, provided that price does not go below the accumulation territories at 1.3000 and 1.2950. GBP pairs would undergo high volatility in September 2016: in contrast to lower volatility witnessed this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This currency trading instrument is neutral in the short-term, but bearish in the longer term. The instrument underwent a very tight consolidation between Monday and Thursday, only to break upwards on Friday. The upwards break has not invalidated the neutral bias on the market, unless price goes above the supply levels at 103.00 and 103.50. There is also a possibility of a pullback to the demand levels at 101.00 and 100.50. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month of September, which means, bears are expected to be the overall winners in the month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral EURJPY is neutral in the near term and bearish in the long-term. The cross has been moving sideways for the past three weeks, while the trend on higher timeframes remains bearish. The bullish breakout that occurred on Friday could end up being a false breakout, should price fail to keep on moving north. Since the outlook on JPY pairs remains bearish, a pullback into the demand zone at 113.00 is possible, though strong selling pressures would be needed for the demand zone to be breached to the downside. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A seed was planted in my mind. It took a few years for it to grow. When it did, I realized that what I really love is trading — the pursuit of actively trying to beat the market. And so I guided my life into that role. It took a while, but finally I succeeded. For the past 15 years, I have been a full-time trader.” - Jim Totaro (Source: Collective2) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  3. TAPPING PROFITS WITH AN INTRADAY STRATEGY “As traders, we should never stop learning, because the markets are never going to stop teaching. Continuing to learn is a vital part of becoming a better trader.” – Track ‘n Trade You may have heard that FX trading is all about combining strong currencies with weak currencies. Well, this is the home truth. In fact, this is what currency trading is all about, and the Currency Strength Meter helps us do this as easily as possible, while you are adequately rewarded. Currency Strength Meter – What You Need to Know The currency strength meter at LiveCharts gives you a quick visual guide to which currencies are currently strong, and which ones are weak. The meter measures the strength of all Forex cross pairs and applies calculations on them to determine the overall strength for each individual currency. How Does The Currency Strength Meter Work? The meter takes readings from every Forex pair over the last 24 hours, and applies calculations to each. It then bundles together each the associated pairs to an individual currency (eg, EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP etc) and finds the current strength. How Can This Help Me? It is useful as a quick guide to which currencies you might want to trade, and which might be worth staying away from. For instance, if a certain currency is very strong, and another suddenly turns weaker, you may find a trading opportunity. Such deviation between pairs usually indicates momentum. Conversely, if two currencies are weak, strong or average strength, there is often a range or sideways movement happening. You might want to stay away from trading those pairs. (Source: LiveCharts) Bringing It Together There are many ways in which currency strength information is displayed (like figures display, bars displays, etc.), but LiveCharts makes uses of rectangular bars. The strongest currency would display six rectangular bars on top of it. The weakest currency would display only one rectangular bar on top of it. The second strongest currency would display five rectangular bars on top of it. The second weakest currency would display two rectangular bars on top of it. The uppermost rectangular bar on top of the strongest currency is green, while the only rectangular bar above the weakest currency is red. Watch the video here: Learn.tradimo.com/courses/183 Looking at the CSM, the best thing to do is to combine the strongest currency with the weakest currency for the best result. Sometimes, we may combine the strongest currency with the second weakest currency (or the second strongest currency to the weakest currency). In a given day, all currencies with four or three bars on top of them would be avoided. Also, these are what we do not want to do: Combination of one strongest currency with another strongest currency, Combination of the weakest currency with another weakest currency, Combination of one second strongest currency with another second strongest currency, And combination of one second weakest currency with another second weakest currency. Strategy Snapshot* Strategy name: Strategy type: Suitability: Time horizon: Indicator: Setup: Position sizing: Stop loss: Take profit: Risk per trade: Risk-to-reward ratio: Maximum duration per trade: Maximum orders per day: The quote below ends the article: “When I follow my rules, good things happen. When I don't follow them, bad things happen.” - James Altucher *Please watch the details of the strategy video here: Learn.tradimo.com/courses/183 Tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
  4. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD went upwards 200 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1350 before the current shallow retracement. Price may be able to target the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450 this week, but bulls might encounter some challenges doing this. There is a possibility of a pullback, which might bring another opportunity to go long at a lower price or bring an end to the current bullish outlook on the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went in the opposite direction to EURUSD, moving briefly below the support level at 0.9550, and then closing at 0.9600 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means it may continue trending downwards, on the condition that EURUSD would continue trending upwards; otherwise a rally would ensue. A show of weakness in EURUSD and CHF (for CHF could experience some weakness against the majors this week) would help to bring about a rally in USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD went upwards from Tuesday to Friday last week, pulling back by over 130 pips on Friday, and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3050. The bearish outlook remains in place, unless price goes upwards by at least, another 300 pips from the current location. Without this condition being fulfilled, GBPUSD might experience a further pullback, which might possibly be aided by a bearish movement on GBPCAD (since CAD would rally against other pairs this week). GBPCAD and GBPUSD sometimes get positively correlated. At times, it is helpful to know how conditions surrounding other pairs and crosses affect the instrument we focus on. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This pair declined 170 pips on August 15 and 16, and then moved sideways for the rest of the week, all in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on the pair, plus other JPY pairs, continues to be bearish (though CADJPY could rally when CAD gains stamina). This week, the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00 might be tested. The demand levels at 100.00 and 99.50 were tested last week, but price could not stay below them. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross has been consolidating for the last two weeks; an event which has brought about a neutral bias in the near term (although the bias is bearish in the long-term). Further sideways movement would continue to emphasize the neutral bias, until there is a breakout this week or next, which would most probably favor bears, as price goes towards the demand zones at 112.50, 112.00 and, especially 111.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Now I am devoted to Forex and fully focused on developing my trading strategy to become a full-time trader.” – Lukasz (source: Tradimo) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 15 “It seems that these days few traders are interested in trading long-term. The monthly and weekly charts remain relatively unnoticed. Traders are so busy looking at anything and everything from 60 minutes down to 1 minute, that they let beautiful trades slip right by them in the very markets where they are trying so desperately to make a buck… Please keep in mind that the moves you will be seeing are huge on the monthly and weekly charts; and if they last for only a few bars, which is many times better than the moves you are getting on intraday charts.” – Joe Ross (Tradingeducators.com) Name: Tom Baldwin Nationality: American Occupation: Trader/investor Company: Baldwin Group of Companies A TRADER WHO CAN SINGLE-HANDEDLY MOVE THE TREASURY BOND MARKET Tom took a Master’s degree in agribusiness and worked as a meat packer in Ohio. He’d already taken a few trading-related courses at graduate school, based on a friend’s advice, he moved to Chicago. Being a trader and investor, Tom founded the Baldwin Group of companies. He traded the 30-year bond, and he’s recognized as a force to reckon with. He currently serves as Chairman of Baldwin Group Ltd., the parent company of several investment and financial services. Companies in the group include: Baldwin Commodities Corp., a Treasury Bond Futures proprietary trading company, and Baldwin Managed Futures, a CTA. Tom’s career as a trader was a profitable one. Wikipedia say he is also the current owner of Granot Loma, the great American castle on the southern shore of Lake Superior in Marquette County, Michigan. He was inducted into the Futures Hall of Fame in 2009, which was instituted in the year 2005 to honor exceptional contributions to the global futures and options community. What You Need to Know: 1. Tom followed this trend. Period. 2. Trading is a lot of hard work, for one. It’s perseverance. You have to love to do it. Also, in your business, you have to have a total disregard for money. You can’t trade for money. You shouldn’t make money your number one goal in trading. 3. As far as trading is concerned, patience is a virtue. Some people trade too much. They just enter the markets at random and trade anything that moves. So they’ll be forcing trades rather than waiting patiently for their setups to form. Patience is an important trait many people don’t have. Tom believes that patience has been the most difficult thing for him to work on. Although he’s made great strides in the past two years, he still catches himself worrying that the next bull market is going to take off without him. He expects to continue to improve in this area as he continues to gain more experience. 4. Education doesn’t necessarily make you a great trader. Some newbies think the more they know, the better it is. But being smarter can also mean being dumber. More knowledge could make your trading results worse, because what you need to be profitable are simple principles. Many great traders believe that there isn’t anything special about them. They just show up to work everyday and study their asses off. 5. Tom said trading is like any other job. You work hard, put in the time and effort, and make your own luck. 6. For a successful trader, the ego has been put under control. They find it very easy to cut their losses. You don’t need to be self-confident that all trades must go in your favor. Tom has come a long way with this as well, of course, with having a few big winners under his belt would really aid his psychology. This article is ended with the quote below. “Actually, the best traders have no ego. To be a great trader, you have to have a big enough ego only in the sense that you have confidence in yourself. You cannot let ego get in the way of a trade that is a loser; you have to swallow your pride and get out.” Copyright: Tallinex.com
  6. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated on Monday and went further upwards on Tuesday. Price moved upwards 130 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1200, to close above the support line at 1.1150. Bulls might push price further upwards this week; however, there is a possibility of a bearish movement on EURUSD, since EUR could become weak versus other majors, save GBP, which is currently weaker than EUR. The current bullish effort would end once price goes below the support line at 1.1050. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish There is a “sell” signal on USDCHF, especially in the near-term. There are support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, which could be tested this week. Nonetheless, the expected bearish movement on EURUSD might enable USDCHF to stop moving south, and assume a rally that would bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Without EURUSD getting weak this week, USDCHF would have to continue moving southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As it was forecast, this market went further south last week, declining by 170 pips and closing below the distribution territory at 1.2950 on Friday. Just like other GBP pairs (except EURGBP), the outlook on the market is bearish for this week, which means that the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800 could be tested this week. The only factor that can reverse the current weakness in the market is an expected or unexpected fundamental factor that proves very favorable to GBP or very unfavorable to USD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish According to expectation, this currency trading instrument was able to maintain its bearishness throughout last week, scuttling bulls’ effort to effect a protracted rally. Whenever price rallied, bears would come in to push it downwards again, thereby preserving the current bearish bias on the market. This week, the bearish bias could continue as price goes for the demand levels at 100.50 and 100.00. On the other hand, a possibility of a strong reversal exists, in case JPY gathers strength. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The movement on EURJPY was essentially flat last week, though that has not overridden the current downtrend. Price would need to consolidate further for another week or two before the bias can turn neutral, otherwise, we would witness a continuation of the southward movement or a temporary reversal that would threaten the current bearish bias. A bullish reversal may occur, but it would not last very long, because of a bearish outlook on JPY pairs, and because EUR itself is expected to be weak this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Good trading habits are an important factor in successful trading.” - Gabriel Grammatidis Copyright: Tallinex.com
  7. “In my experience trading takes a very important and somewhat rare personality trait which is: the ability to see the next logical step and to then get it done. If this ability is lacking you will always be behind.” – Garachen (Source: Elitetrader) Why Is Trading a Good Money-making Vehicle? It’s a level playing field. Everybody is welcome. You don’t have a boss to control you. You need only a PC and Internet connection. You can make money whether the market goes up or down. The more experience you’ve, the better you become. The starting capital is minimal. You’ve great money management flexibility. You stay in control. You choose when to trade and when not to trade. Profits come naturally when you’re away from your system. You can coach others including your family members. There Is Something Intriguing About Trading Most members of the public don’t believe they can trade successfully. They’ve been convinced that they can only give their money to professional funds managers to manage, without knowing that they can do this themselves. Your parents don’t have trading secrets to give you. Your school doesn’t have trading secrets to give you. The society don’t have the secrets to give you. While there are pros who can manage your money successfully, it’s true that when you’ve correct trading methodologies and use them faithfully, you can even do better than the so-called pros in terms of percentage returns. Forex trading is a good business, but many people don’t understand it. It’s controversial because the public opinions about it are unfair and warped. Most members of the public understand other types of business, save Forex. There are ways to make small and consistent profits on monthly basis, which become considerable on annual basis. Since most people don’t have experience and others around them don’t have the knowledge, they’re afraid to get in. The reality is; successful traders are just normal people like me and you. There are good trading systems you can use to make money, and those who use these systems aren’t smarter or better than you in any way. The only difference is that those who use good trading systems have the willingness to attain riches through discipline. Conclusion: Trading is different from investing. As a trader, you buy and sell within days or weeks, but an investor may hold a position for months or years. The greatest market speculators are faithful to strategies that give them an edge. They stick to those strategies when they work and when they don’t work. I pray that your fortitude will not be shaken in trying times. Your true trading potential lies beyond your innate gifts. The article is concluded by this quote: “Trading is not a sin, but trading without knowing what you are doing can lead to a lot of problems. Trading, in and of itself, is not considered as gambling…. However, gambling is considered to be foolish. Trading without adequate knowledge of the markets and self is foolish because, by doing so, you are gambling… There is a certain amount of self-knowledge needed to choose the proper trading method.” – Andy Jordan Copyright: Tallinex.com
  8. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair could not sustain the bullish run it started in the last week of July 2016. Price made a faint bullish effort on Monday and Tuesday, went briefly above the resistance line at 1.1200, reached the weekly high of 1.1231, and then declined 180 pips, to close above the resistance line at 1.1050 (which was tested before the close of the market). Since the bias on the market is bearish, further decline is possible, which may take price towards the support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000; even if there would be a brief reversal following that. For the support line at 1.1000 to be broken to the downside, there is a need for very strong bearish pressures. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Although USDCHF has gone upwards 180 pips since last Wednesday, bears are still very active in the market. For the bias to turn bullish, there is a need for at least, another 200 pips to the upside, which would require a strong bullish pressure. Further upwards movement in the context of a short-term downward is what is anticipated this week. However, the presence of bears ought not to be ignored, for they would take advantage of any opportunity they have, to push price lower. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish On this market, the bias on the 4-hour and daily charts is bearish. The market was flat on Monday, went upwards on Tuesday, went flat again on Wednesday, and then moved south on Thursday and Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and GBP is expected to be weak versus major currencies this week, with a few exceptions. While it is expected that price could go more downwards, it would encounter extremely recalcitrant accumulation territories along the way, which would challenge the current bearish outlook. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish What happened on August 2, 2016, was the only trending movement that was witnessed on USDJPY last week – the rest was consolidation. The market closed on Friday as bulls were beginning to grow impatient with the existing situation; though their impatience would do nothing more than a short-term rally, because the bias on the market is bearish and further bearish movement is anticipated. The demand levels at 101.00, 100.50 and 100.00 would be interesting to watch this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross went south gradually last week, managing to record another decline by 200 pips. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the cross (and also a bearish outlook on JPY pairs), and as a result of this, price is expected to continue moving south by at least 200: either gradually or speedily. Long trades are not advised unless the market situation changes. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Instead of trying to figure out why markets moved, ignore that and look for more trading opportunities!” - Rick Wright Copyright: Tallinex.com
  9. AUS200 Dominant bias: Bullish AUS200 moved north by over 3700 points in July 2016, as it was anticipated. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the daily and 4-hour charts, emphasizing bulls’ hegemony. In this market, the best trading approach now is to buy short-term pullbacks whenever they happen, providing that a pullback is followed by a bullish candle. This is exactly what happened on July 5, 2016, and it was followed by a nice bullish run. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish This market moved upwards in bullish mode between July 4 to 20 (the dip the happened on July 5 being a “buy” opportunities for latecomers). Price then consolidated from July 20 till the end of the month. The consolidation that happened in the last few days of the month has resulted in a “box” between the support line at 2157.0 and the resistance line at 2178.5; and price would need to go out of the box for the trend to continue. Since the outlook on SPX500 is currently bullish (though bears might win before the end of this year), price would continue going upwards when it leaves the box. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish Here, price reached a low of 17709.0 and a high of 18635.0, in July 2016. That was a gain of over 920 points, from trough to peak. However, price threatened to break down last week, forming a bearish signal on the 4-hour chart, while the bias on the daily chart remains bullish. In August, a movement bellow the accumulation territory at 18200.0 would result in a bearish outlook, unless price moves upwards before reaching that accumulation territory. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish In the last prognosis, the supply level at 10470.8 was our target for last month. From the monthly low of 9301.3, price went up more than 10,500 points, to close the month at 10350.7. While the target for last month has not been reached, it would be reached in August. Price might even be able to go above it, and gain additional 500 points after the initial target has been exceeded. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish From July 4 to 7, FRA40 went south, but further southward movement was rejected at the demand zone of 4057.4, after which price went northward by roughly 4000 points. There is an ongoing bullish signal in the market and price is supposed to continue trending upwards in August 2016, reaching the supply zones at 4500.0, 4550.0 and 4650.0 in this month or next. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  10. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold moved upwards in the first few days of July and then began to consolidate to the downside. The downside consolidated was conspicuous from July 13 to 27. But in the last few trading days, price started moving upwards gradually – an action that saves the current bullish bias in the market. Since the bias is bullish, it is normal to expect price to continue going upwards, seeing the downside consolidation in the middle of July as an opportunity to buy. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Just like Gold, Silver also started July 2016 on a bullish note, but began to correct downwards in the middle of the month (especially from July 11 to 27). Price managed to end July on a bullish note, and thus, might continue trending upwards. This is a bull market, in spite of machinations of bears. In August, dips in the market would offer good opportunities to go long at better prices, for bulls might be able to target the resistance levels at 21.0000, 22.5000 and 23.0000. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Neutral Bitcoin has become a flat market. Price has been moving sideways for weeks, though it is volatile. This kind of volatility is has not taken the market anywhere, save transient bearish movements, alternated by transient bullish movements, which are nothing significant on higher time horizons. There is currently a struggle between bulls and bears, and price would begin to trend strongly when one group is dominated, i.e. when the market goes out of balance. That is exactly what would happen in August. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  11. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair assumed a bullish journey last week, going upwards 230 pips. Price topped at 1.1195, closing above the support line at 1.1150. There is now a bullish signal in the market, which shows the possibility of price going further upwards. As forecasted in the last article, major pairs (with the exception of GBPUSD) moved more strongly than they did between July 18 to 22. As long as USD remains weak, EURUSD would continue going upwards. In August 2016, EUR would rally against most major pairs, meeting possible challenges only against JPY and (possibly JPY). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Contrary to expectation, USDCHF declined significantly because USD lost stamina. Although price initially went up by over 90 pips, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9950, it later suffered a setback. From the high of 0.9949, price move south 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9635. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market: Further bearish movement is possible this week, provided USD continues its weakness. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Cable merely went sideways last week – which means the present tight equilibrium phase remains valid. A strong breakout would occur this week or next, which would result in an end to the current equilibrium phase in the market. Normally, there ought to be a movement of 500 pips to the upside or to the downside, for the equilibrium phase to end. In August, GBP would rally versus AUD and NZD, but may experience difficulties in doing so versus JPY (and possibly USD). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, USDJPY went bearish, going down 450 pips last week. Bulls fought gallantly against the bearish trend that started at the beginning of last week, but they suffered ignominious defeat on Friday. Price is expected to reach the demand levels at 101.50, 101.00 and 100.50 this week, unless some opposition arises as a result of a possible stamina in USD. Selling pressure is also visible on other JPY pairs, and it is worth mentioning that the outlook on JPY pairs is strongly bearish for the month of August 2016. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just like most other JPY pairs, this currency trading instrument went south on Monday and Tuesday, but bulls managed to halt further southward movement on Wednesday and Thursday. However, bulls gave in to bearish pressure on Friday as price nosedived by 250 pips, closing at 113.94 that day. There is a clean bearish outlook on the market and further southward journey is possible. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Develop and adhere to a system, not random and erratic acts of inconsistent trading.” – Louise Bedford Copyright: Tallinex.com
  12. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair consolidated to the downside last week, moving south by only 100 pips and closing above the support line at 1.0950 on Friday. There is a “sell” signal in the market and price might test the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 and 1.0800 this week, because USD is expected to gain some stamina. Most major pairs did not move significantly last week, but movements in the markets this week would be stronger than the movements last week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullishness despite constant threats from bears. Price did not go upwards strongly but it is now above the important support level of 0.9800. There is a major obstacle to bulls, located at the resistance level of 0.9900. Bulls have carried out failed attacks into that resistance level, and they are yet to give up doing that. This week would be decisive, since bulls must breach the resistance level at 0.9900 to avoid a clear pullback in the market. One factor in their favor is the expected stamina in USD this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Cable merely went sideways last week: An action that resulted in a neutral outlook in the short-term. This week will witness a serious battle between bulls and bears, for bulls would want to push Cable upwards, whereas USD might gain some strength of its own, thereby making the bullish movement a bit difficult. This week, there would be mixed results on GBP pairs, for GBP would be strong versus some currencies like AUD and NZD, while it might because weak versus other currencies like JPY. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument went upwards by 200 pips last week, almost reaching the supply level at 107.50. Further bullish movement was rejected at that point and price got corrected lower by roughly 150 pips. Although there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week. This means USDJPY could get corrected lower and lower; while the only factor that could help bulls is a possible strength in USD. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross made some effort to push price upwards. Price topped at 118.46, and the bullish effort was paused at that point. Since JPY pairs could go south this week, the demand zones at 115.50, 115.00 and 114.50, could become potential targets for bears. In case bears are able to push the market below the demand zone at 114.00, things would have turned bearish on the market. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Don’t let your day job keep you from indulging in the lucrative market.” – Ryan Mallory Copyright: Tallinex.com
  13. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 13 “Writing down a trading plan and sticking to it is the winning trader's secret weapon. If you create detailed trading plans and manage risk, you will increase your chances of success. Don't think you need to trade by the seat of your pants. Take things slowly. Map out your trading plan, and follow it. You will trade more calmly, creatively, and profitably.” – Joe Ross Name: William Gann Nationality: American Date of Birth: June 6, 1878 Occupation: Trader, technical analyst and market forecaster A HIGHLY SPIRITUAL TRADER William’s dad was a cotton farmer. He started trading in 1902 when he was 24. He developed and used the technical analysis tools known as Gann angles, Square of 9, Hexagon, Circle of 360 (these are Master charts). Gann market forecasting methods are based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics. William was highly spiritual. Wikipedia says he was believed to be a religious man by nature who believed in religious as well as scientific value of Bible as the greatest book ever written. This can be repeatedly observed in his books. He was also a 33rd degree Freemason of the Scottish Rite Order, to which some have attributed his knowledge of ancient mathematics, though he was also known to have studied the ancient Greek and Egyptian cultures. You would need to do your own research to know how Gann angles work. He made profits by his own speculative efforts. He profits were real and his forecasts were accurate. William died on June 18, 1955. What You Need to Know: What you need to know about Williams was revealed by Justin Kuepper (Source: Trade2win.com) in his article of March 18, 2016. These are adapted excerpts from Justin’s article. 1. Predicting the future is impossible, right? If William Gann were around today, he’d beg to differ. His first prophecy is believed to have happened during World War I when he predicted the November 9, 1918, abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war. Then in 1927, he wrote a book entitled "Tunnel Through The Air," which many believe predicted the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and the air war between the two countries. 2. William’s financial predictions were perhaps even more profound. In early 1929, he predicted that the markets would probably continue to rally on speculation and hit new highs… until early April. In his publication, The Supply and Demand Letter, he delivered daily financial forecasts focusing on both the stock and commodity markets. As this daily financial publication gained notoriety, William published several books - most notably "Truth", which was hailed by the Wall Street Journal as his best work. Finally, he began releasing the techniques that he used to make these forecasts: the Gann studies. 3. Did he produce any results? In 1908, William discovered what he called the "market time factor," which made him one of the pioneers of technical analysis. To test his new strategy, he opened one account with $300 and one with $150. It turned out to be wildly successful: William was able to make $25,000 profit with his $300 account in only three months; meanwhile, he made $12,000 profit with his $150 account in only 30 days! After his results were verified, he became famous on Wall Street as one of the best forecasters of all time. In his article on Trade2win.com, Justin Kuepper concludes: Is it possible to predict the future? W.D. Gann probably thought so, and seemingly proved it with his wildly successful returns. The system is relatively simple to use, but difficult to master. After all, it was Gann's uncanny ability to fine-tune his techniques that led him to enormous profits - the average investor is not likely to obtain these kinds of returns. Like many technical tools, Gann angles are best used in conjunction with other tools to predict price movements and profit. This piece is ended by the quote below: “Even though I'm young by many people's standards (28 years old this April), I feel like an old soul when it comes to trading. I've already been through many stressful high-volatility periods (9/11, the 2000-2002 market collapse, the 2008 Subprime Crisis, the Euro Crisis and the Flash Crash in 2010, the Chinese stock market crash in 2015... and many others). I think these experiences help me today to remain calm and cool-headed in difficult situations. ” - William Gandini (Source: Collective2.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com What Super Traders Don’t Want You to Know: Advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html
  14. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This market merely went flat throughout last week; neither closing above the resistance line at 1.1150 nor going below the support line 1.1000. Price went lower on July 15, but it is unlikely that the support line at 1.1000 would be breached, for price may not be able to close below the support line, even after it tests it. This week, the probability of price going north is higher than the probability of it going south. Therefore, the resistance lines at 1.1200 and 1.1250 could be tested this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In spite of attacks from bears, USDCHF was able to avoid a significant decline last week. Price managed to go above the resistance level 0.9850, but it could not reach the subsequent resistance level at 0.9900 (which is a strong barrier to the bullish movement). Price underwent a shallow bearish correction on Wednesday and Thursday; while the bias remains bullish. There ought to be further bullish movement this week….. But…. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, GBPUSD pair made some conspicuous effort to rally last week, without being able to overturn the bearish outlook on it. Other GBP pairs also rallied significantly, like GBPNZD (1100 pips) and GBPJPY (1300 pips). GBPUSD went north by 550 pips, topped at 1.3480, before the current pullback began. A bullish signal has been generated in the hourly and 4-hour charts, whereas the overall bias remains bearish on higher timeframes. GBPUSD might be able to go further upwards this week; and the bias could turn bullish in case the rally is quite strong. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Contrary to expectation, USDJPY pair went upwards significantly last week (just as other JPY pairs did). Price went north 550 pips, ramming into the supply level at 106.00, before getting corrected on Friday. There is a now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which means that further upwards movement is possible. The only possible impediment to the current bullish effort is a possible weakness in USD, which might result in a considerable selling pressure. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross underwent a bullish movement of more than 700 pips last week, enforcing a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Although price got corrected by over 200 pips on Friday, July 15, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern remains valid. This means price might go further upwards this week, though threats from bears have not abated. Only a movement below the demand zone at 114.00 would render the bullish outlook useless. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “We believe in never trying to "take" or force the market, only "accept" what it gives you.” - Joe Ross Copyright: Tallinex.com
  15. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved sideways last week, with no major bearish or bullish movement, though the overall bias remains bearish. There are support lines at 1.0000, 1.0950 and 1.0900. The support line at 1.1000 is a formidable barrier, and should price go below it, the support lines below it could be tested. On the other hand, there are resistance lines at 1.1150, 1.1200 and 1.1250, which could also be tested when bulls become strong enough to effect any short-term rally. The outlook on the market is bearish for this month; whereas that does not rule out bullish attempts this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was able to move further upwards last week. Bulls achieved a feat when they pushed price above the support level at 0.9800 (which used to be an obstacle to them). Price was then pushed towards the resistance level at 0.9850, which has already been tested. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument is still in a major downtrend. Price dropped 460 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.2796 and closing at 1.2951. The market went sideways in the last few days of the week. This week, there is a high probability that price would trend upwards (plus this could be witnessed on some GBP pairs). GBP might gain some strength this week or next week, but it is very much unlikely that the market would reach the high of June 23 anytime soon. This means that, while there could be a rally in the market, the dominant bias would continue to be bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market went down more than 250 pips last week, to close at 100.56 on Friday. The outlook on the market, and of course, on other JPY pairs, remains bearish. Price could trend further downwards, as it goes for the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00. The task is to break below the demand level at 100.00 first, after which it would be easier to reach other demand levels below it. Any rallies in this market ought to be ignored. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The “sell” signal on EURJPY is still a valid thing, since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price declined further by 330 pips from Monday to Wednesday, and consolidated till the end of the week. Like other JPY pairs, further decline is expected; and any rallied seen here are essentially opportunities to seek short trades. There are intriguing demand zones at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You know those adages about smelling the roses and chasing butterflies? The markets are my butterflies and my roses.” - Bill Gross Copyright: Tallinex.com
  16. AUS200 Dominant bias: Bullish AUS200 declined last month, reaching a high of 5393.0 and a low of 5040.0. That southwards movement threatened the bullish outlook on the market, but the recovery that was witnessed in the last several days of June has upheld bulls’ domination. Price is expected to trend further northward this month, reaching the distribution territories at 5440.0, 5540.0 and 5640.0. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish This market moved sideways in the first half of June 2014; then it broke down on June 23 and 24, halting the bullish attempt that was witnessed before then. The bias would have turned bearish, should bears continued pushing the market southwards, but price started to recover the following week, which restored confidence to bulls. The outlook on the market is bullish, as bulls would continue to push price upwards, with only intermittent pullbacks along the way. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish The movement of this trading instrument was essentially bearish last month, but bulls were able to recover some of their losses, as price skyrocketed by 9000 points from the monthly low of 17059.0. Recovery is in progress, for this instrument may still move north by additional 4000 points (at least), this month. So the best approach might be to buy fleeting pullbacks in the market, especially when they are followed by a bullish candle in the 4-hour chart. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish GER30 experienced a large pullback on June 23 and 24, after which bulls came in to arrest further bearish movement. Price plunged into very formidable demand zones and was forced to spring upwards – an action that was followed by a smooth bullish recovery. Price went upwards by almost 5000 points last week, but it is yet to reach the high of June 23, 2016, which was 10470.8. The high of that day is the minimum target for bulls this month, because GER30 would continue to experience gradual recovery until the target at 10470.8 is reached or exceeded. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish The market price reached a low of 3919.9 on June 24, and then began a journey of recovery, which remains in progress. Price closed at 4257.4 last week, on a bullish note. The targets for this month are located at the resistance lines of 4370.0, 4450.0 and 4500.0. This does not rule out possibilities of bears’ machinations, but bulls should be vividly victorious by the end of July. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  17. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved upwards 150 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1150, in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on EURUSD remains bearish for this week. For the outlook to turn bullish, price needs to go upwards by at least, 300 pips from here. Otherwise, the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 would be tested this week. Those support lines were recently breached, and they would be breached again as the bearish movement continues. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was essentially a flat market before June 23, 2016. It was pushed upwards only by fact of the strong decline in EURUSD. Price made a faint bullish attempt last week, but it met an opposition from bears, who checked further bullish movement, and forced the price to bend downwards (in the 4-hour chart). The bullish signal on USDCHF is in a precarious situation; which means that further bearish correction could cancel the bullish signal, thus forcing price back into the neutral territory, in which it was before June 23. This week, bulls need to keep on pushing price north in order to avoid bears’ victory. There is one big roadblock ahead: CHF would soon gain a serious stamina this month and it could bring about some selling pressure on USDCHF, while having visible bearish effects on other CHF pairs (save CHFJPY). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable went virtually flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. There are Bearish Confirmation Patterns on 4-hour, weekly, and monthly charts, which all signal serious weakness on Cable. Apart from this, there is a bearish expectation on Cable (and other GBP pairs); just as it was in the last two weeks. While bulls may attempt to push up price by a few hundred pips at most, bears would end up as winners. In this month, GBP pairs would experience strong movements. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY also went flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. It would be difficult for bulls to push the pair upwards significantly because there are adamant supply levels above them, and because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for this month. JPY pairs are expected to assume major bearish movements this week (which could last till early October 2016). USDJPY would trend downwards by a minimum of 200 pips before the end of this week or by early next week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish While the major bias is bearish, this cross went upward 250 pips last week. There are supply zones at 115.50 and 116.50, and while price could possibly test them this week, bears would still continue to dominate the market, putting more emphasis on the major bias, which is also visible on higher timeframes. Just like other JPY pairs, this cross could go further and further downwards in the next few months, though that does not rule out the possibility of noteworthy bullish efforts. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “About fifteen years ago, I moved to the U.S. and worked with several CTAs. This was the point in my career that I made the decision to eliminate all human emotion from my trading. I became a purely systematic trader. For me, emotion and subjectivity are the enemies. Good traders follow systems. Systems have rules.” - Francisco London (Source: Collective2.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  18. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold moved upwards by over 12400 pips last month, and price reached a high of 1358.21 that month. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, so it is not advisable to open short trades in the market. Any bearish attempts the market makes ought to be short-lived, proffering opportunities to go long at better prices. Further bullish movement is possible this month, which would enable price to first breach the high of June (1358.21), and then go towards the resistance levels at 1360.00, 1380.00 and possibly, 1400.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Recently, the bullish movement on Silver has been stronger than the bullish movement on Gold. Since the beginning of June 20016, till now, price has gone upwards by over 3200 pips, reaching a high of 19.3600 on July 1. There is a strong bullish outlook on the market – something that is supposed to continue this week. It is also possible that sales would be temporary in the context of this uptrend, as bulls target the demand levels at 19.5000, 20.0000 and 21.0000. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Bticoin went beyond our target for last month. Price broke above the accumulation territory at 600.00, reaching a high of 775.92. The buying pressure on the market still exists, and further northward attempts would be seen this month, which may enable the market to recover the massive sell-offs it experienced within June 19 to 23. Although the presence of bears poses threats, the targets for month are located at the distribution territories at 775.00, 780.00 and 800.00. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  19. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair tested the resistance line at 1.1400, and went above it briefly. Price could not stay above that resistance line: It tumbled by 500 pips before a 200-pip bullish correction occurred on Friday. The bias is bearish, and further bearish movement is possible, but it may not be more than 300 pips downwards. Price might also journey upwards this week, owing to the fact that the extreme bearish movement that occurred on Friday could bring opportunities to buy. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was essentially a flat market in the context of a downtrend, before the strong bearish movement on EURUSD forced it to break out upwards. Price moved upwards 250 pips, reaching the resistance level at 0.9800, and the got corrected by 100 pips. For the bias to remain bullish, EURUSD needs to continue moving south; because the events affecting EURUSD are what would determine the movement of USDCHF (which is being currently affected by inertia on its own). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish On Friday, June 24, 2016, Cable experienced its strongest bearish movement in recent years. Price dropped by 1700 pips, reaching the low of 1.3230. Price later performed a 500-pip bullish correction, later closing at 1.3682 that Friday. Normally, the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish, and continuous selling pressure on Cable is a possibility. However, the extreme market situation would also bring some opportunities to go long, for those who are very good at catching falling knives. The markets could open with gaps next week. While things are currently bearish on GBP pairs, recovery would gradually or smoothly return to the markets. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The Brexit votes outcome also had bearish effects on JPY pairs, and that was exactly what brought about a bearish momentum on USDJPY, which was consolidating in the context of a downtrend prior to that time. What happened to this market on Friday simply brought more emphasis on the long-term bearish trend, which is also visible on the daily and weekly charts. Although the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish, the 700-pip decline that was witnessed on Friday would bring about a rally within the next several trading days, as bulls seem to have reached the end of their tether. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument dropped 1200 pips on Friday, thus forfeiting the 350-pip bullish gains it saw within Monday and Thursday. The bias on 4-hour chat, daily chart and weekly chart is bearish, but price has already encountered very formidable demand zones on Friday. While selling pressure is present in the market, we may witness some bullish attempt in the next few weeks. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it." - Warren Buffet Copyright: Tallinex.com
  20. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral All bearish pulls EURUSD experienced last week were rendered useless by bullish effort. Price did not go above the resistance line at 1.1300 last week; nor did it stay below the support line at 1.1150. The impasse between bulls and bears has enforced the neutrality of the market, and unless price goes above the resistance line at 1.1400 (causing a bullish bias), or goes below the support line at 1.1100 (causing a bearish bias), the neutrality of price would continue. This week, there is going to be strong moment on EURUSD, which would most likely favor bears. This pair is quite choppy right now. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved sideways last week – performing only upswings and downswings in the context of a downtrend. The support level at 0.9550 ought to be breached to the downside for the bearish journey to continue. However, further decline on EURUSD would trigger a rally on the pair, which would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern when price goes above the resistance level at 0.9800. A strong buying pressure is required for this to happen. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This week, there would not be any unprecedented movements on GBP pairs (just like Grexit caused no special movements in the markets), save strong movements that are not more than anything that has been witnessed so far this year. Surprise movements do not usually happen when they are anticipated. What usually cause extremely serious movements in the markets are events that happen unexpectedly. Likely effects of Brexit have been anticipated, as well as likely effects of Bremain. Therefore, they would not cause any movements stronger than what we have seen on GBP pairs this year. Throughout Thursday, June 23, GBPUSD (and most other GBP pairs) will go in one direction with little or no reversal, but there would be nothing graver than normal. The outlook on the pair is bearish and further southward movement could possibly be witnessed this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, USDJPY declined further by 300 pips last week, going below the demand level at 104.00, before things went sideways again. Price has dropped 550 pips since the beginning of this month, and the downtrend is likely to continue, as price targets the demand levels at 103.50 and 103.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market, just like most other JPY pairs. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, giving a possibility of price reaching the demand zones at 117.00, 116.00, and 115.00 this week or next. The demand levels at 117.00 and 116.00 were tested last week, and they could be retested this week. One thing should be noted, bearish pressure on EUR would make it difficult for EURJPY to make any significant rally this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You don't have to trade perfectly. You just have to trade profitably. Put a single trade in perspective. It's just one trade of the many trades you will make in your lifetime. You may lose or you may win, but the outcome of a single trade does not matter. What matters are your overall profits across a series of trades, not just a single trade.” – Joe Ross Copyright: Tallinex.com
  21. “What matters is your ability to pick up the flying gobs of money whizzing past your ears in the financial markets money storm.” – Louise Bedford Originally, I planned to post an article titled: “Difficult Markets Produce Fine Results – Part 2.” But I can see that the media are making noises about the coming Brexit or Bremain, just like they did when the issue of Grexit was hot. A referendum is being held on Thursday, June 23, 2016, to decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union. Since the outcome of the referendum will impact the markets, it is worthwhile to know the nature of the impact and how exactly the markets would behave during and following the referendum. Traders want to know what the market would do, whether it would go up or down or simply fluctuate wildly without a directional movement. What would the markets do? I’ll tell you what the markets are supposed to do, and that’d be my opinion. Everybody is entitled to her/his opinion. If you could recall my Annual Trading Forecasts for the year 2015, it was mentioned that USDCHF would experience a large pullback in January. That was exactly what happened. What Would Happen to the Markets on June 23 and After The Brexit/Bremain issues would affect mainly GBP pairs (Just like the SNB action of January 15, 2015, affected mainly CHF pairs). When I mention major GBP pairs, I mean GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, EURGBP, GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPCHF. These pairs are already trending strongly; but that is their normal behavior. Please check historical data. Whether Britain chooses to remain in the European Union or leave, there would be strong movements in the markets. The movements would be stronger in case Britain chose to leave the EU. The currency market is like a rubber band: If it moves too far in one direction, it’d soon snap back. Accumulation and distribution territories are present to check strong trends. Nevertheless… No matter what the outcome of the referendum is, there will be no unprecedented volatility in the markets. In my recent markets forecasts, it has been mentioned that GBP pairs would experience strong volatility this month (plus NZD pairs). This is because GBP pairs usually move strongly in June while most other pairs experience low volatility. Bremain/Brexit issues are only a catalyst that will spur the usual strong movements on GBP pairs this June. The market has a knack for going against people’s expectation. Events that people don’t anticipate are what cause surprise moves, not events that people anticipate. People didn’t anticipate the unprecedented CHF pairs volatility that occurred on January 15, 2015 and there were surprise consequences. Another instance of an unexpected event that caused surprise movements was the last major earthquake in Japan, in March 2011, which also caused nuclear fallout. Grexit was hyped as something that might have a serious impact on the markets. What then happened? There was nothing significant or extraordinary, as far as the markets were concerned. Even there were far stronger movements in the first few months and the last few months of 2015, than when the Grexit issue was hot. There wouldn’t be any unpredicted movements or volatility on GBP pairs (just like Grexit caused no special movements in the markets), save strong movements that are not more than anything that has been witnessed so far this year. Whether Britain exits the union or remains in it, the markets will simply do what they’re known for. The markets will move, presenting good money-making opportunities for astute traders. The stronger the movement, the more money we make. After all, no money can be made in a market that doesn’t move well (unless you’re a scalper). It’s good to open trades based on what the markets are doing, not based on what you think the markets would do. Yes, trending movements would develop further – a thing that good traders are prepared for. Final Thoughts Please, use risk control methods in your trading, so that adverse movements don’t have an adverse effect on your capital; while a favorable movement would have a satisfactory effect on your capital. As ever, it’s good to risk very small per trade. When a position moves against you, you should be protected by a stop, having no worries, provided your stake is also small. When a position moves in your favor, you should make a decent profit. However, certain traders might want to stay away from GBP pairs till the end of the month, if that’s what you prefer. Once again, GBP pairs would trend strongly this month, but don’t expected any movements that would be stronger than what we’ve already witnessed this year, not matter the outcome of the referendum. Do not expect any surprises when the public are anticipating them. Surprises come when the public don’t anticipate them. This article is ended by the quote below: “I‘ve seen a lot of aspiring traders over the years, trained some of the current leading coaches/mentors, worked with some amazing authors/hedge funds and seen a lot of people make this work. The ones that don’t make it work are often the ones that think too much and try to reinvent the wheel - or be / think they are - smarter than the markets. Stop trying to hit a hole in one and start treating this like a business and look to make an average profit on a consistent basis. This will work for you, whatever and however you decide to do it.” – Phil Newton (Source: Trade2win.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  22. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral For the most part of May 2016, EURUSD was in a downtrend. On June 3, a strong bullish breakout led to a bullish signal, but price was unable to continue moving up continuously in the following week, which was last week. Price simply went up 50 pips, hit the resistance line at 1.1400 and then nosedived. This has forced the market into a neutral territory, since the bullish gains of June 3 had been rendered useless by the strong bearish correction that took place within June 9 and 10 (whereas bears cannot claim any dominance until price goes below the resistance line at 1.1150). It is likely that EURUSD would continue to go downwards this week, though the bias may not turn bearish until the resistance line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside. For the bias to turn bullish again, price needs to go above the resistance line at 1.1350. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair decline 180 pips last week, going briefly below the support level at 0.9600 before closing above that support level. Since June 3, 2016, price has declined by 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9577. The support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500 are the next targets for bears this week. Any movement above the resistance level at 0.9800 would put the bearish outlook in a precarious position. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Contrary to expectation, Cable moved south by 460 pips last week, after testing the distribution territory at 1.4650. Prior to this, price moved upwards by 260 pips between Monday and Tuesday. It has been mentioned that GBP pairs would experience strong volatility this month (plus NZD pairs). This is because GBP pairs usually move strongly in June while most other pairs experience low volatility. Bremain/Brexit issues are only a catalyst that will spur the usual strong movements on GBP pairs this June. This week, GBP might behave like it did last week: We would witness strong bullish and bearish movements. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USD/JPY merely went flat throughout last week. Even the faint bullish attempt that was seen on Monday and Tuesday meant nothing when compared to the ongoing bearish outlook. There is a possibility that JPY pairs would trend downwards this week, and so, USDJPY might go further south to test the demand levels at 106.00 and 105.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Between June 6 and 7, this cross went upwards close to 170 pips, but further rally was rejected at the supply zone at 122.50. From that zone, price went down 250 pips, to close at 120.37 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further decline could be witnessed this week. Therefore, the demand zones at 120.00 and 110.00 would be interesting to watch. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Even after all these years, I still feel passionate about trading. I love trying to find profit opportunities. It's a great achievement when you can beat the pros.” - Jay McGivney Copyright: Tallinex.com
  23. AUS200 Dominant bias: Bullish This market is in a precarious situation. While the bias on it is bullish, bears are very active in it the present, and this has made short-term bearish signals to be generated on smaller timeframes like hourly and 4-hour charts (whereas the long-term signal is bullish). Unless price goes below the support lines at 5200.0 and 5100.0, it would be safe to look for ways to buy pullbacks in this market. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish Since May 24, 2016, SPX500 has been trending upwards in a directional mode, though price has consolidated in the past few days. There is a “buy” signal in this market – it is expected that price would continue going upwards this month, reaching the resistance levels at 2120.0 and 2130.0. As long as price does not go below the support level at 2040.0, the “buy” signal would be rational. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish Although the dominant bias on this CFD is bullish, it is a very weak one. The market needs to go further upward in order to clear the ambiguity surrounding it, otherwise, things can turn neutral. A movement above the distribution territory at 18000.0 would reinforce the existing bullish outlook, while a movement below the accumulation territory at 17430.0 would render the bullish outlook invalid, leading to a more conspicuous bearish presence. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish In the context of an uptrend, GER30 moved downwards last week, going below the supply levels at 10200.0 and 10160.0. Further southward movement, especially towards the demand levels at 9900.0 and 9850.0, would result on a bearish outlook. Right now, it is expected that price would make attempt to rally, for those demand levels ought to serve as checks to bears’ threats. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish Price has come down so far this month, but that is not yet significant enough to result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Bulls ought to push price north by at least, 1000 points this month. For a Bearish Confirmation Pattern not to form here, price needs to stop going south. Should price drop further by 500 points, long trades would no longer look logical here. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  24. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair moved sideways from Monday to Friday, in the context of a downtrend. The downtrend was forcefully overturned as the pair shot skywards by 220 pips on Friday, closing at 1.1365 on the same day. The bias has turned bullish, but there is a great challenge for bulls this week. While the pair could go further north, there would be a serious bearish correction when USD gains stamina versus EUR. The outlook on EUR is bearish for this month. EUR could be become weak versus other currencies – and USD is no exception. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF tested the resistance level at 0.9950 several times last week, but it could not stay above it (let alone reaching the resistance level at 1.0000, which is a parity area). Price consolidated till Friday and then broke downwards, almost reaching the support level at 0.9750. This significant bearish breakout has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price could reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, as long as bears gain upper hands here. Should EURUSD loses its strength, USDCHF would experience some buying pressure. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD first attempted to go up last week, tested the distribution territory at 1.4700, and then moved south 300 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4400, before price made a rally effort on Friday, June 3. Most pairs and crosses would experience low volatility in June, save GBP pairs and NZD pairs (for NZD also would become strong versus other currencies in June). Yes, GBP pairs would experience high volatility this month; which would be a series of bearish and bullish movements. This week, some buying pressure might be witnessed on GBPUSD, for the accumulation territory at 1.4400 has checked repeated bearish attacks. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and began to drop like a stone from Tuesday. The bearish movement on Friday was the strongest, bringing the market to at least, 420 pips towards the south last week. Although this bearish trend could reverse this week, it is possible for price to reach the demand levels 106.00 and 105.50 before the potential reversal. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross made some effort to go upwards last week, but this effort was rendered futile after price reached the supply zone at 124.00. Since price could not break above that supply zone, a clean decline was witnessed as price came down, closing below the supply zone at 121.50. Just like USDJPY, it is possible for price to reach the demand zones at 120.50 and 120.00; even if there would be a bullish reversal after that. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “My world is trading and markets. This is where I am very comfortable and extremely confident…” – Sam Seiden Copyright: Tallinex.com
  25. “Trading requires you to be wrong on a regular basis – in fact you are wrong more often than you are right. And this constant grind requires a certain degree of fortitude to endure.” – Chris Tate There’s no way to become victorious easily. You don’t become victorious by trying to be victorious. You become victorious be surmounting the challenges life puts in your way. Trading success doesn’t come by accident. You’d attain it through hard work, humble acceptance of reality, faithful endurance under difficult challenges. What a remarkable example for many traders today! Never forget that your breakthrough is largely in your own hands. Trading mastery isn’t beyond your ken, though you might emote that nothing good comes cheap. Where you’re coming from doesn’t matter, but where you’re going. Your dismal trading experiences shouldn’t deter you from attaining your dreams as a victorious trader. Difficult Markets Produce Fine Results Unlike those who become envious and sad when they see their fellow human beings making solid achievements in life, I’m happy whenever someone becomes successful in life. I’m happy whenever I come across a successful trader, just because it strengthens my conviction that it’s possible to be a winning trader. This also serves as a powerful testimony to doubting Thomases in the public. As a one-on-one trading coach (not via webinars or trading rooms), I’ve trained many people the art of trading and I’m happy whenever they go on to become successful market players. Some people completed their training and then abandoned the markets. Some didn’t bother to finish their training. Some completed their training and then abandoned the Golden Rules given to them, doing something else. Every strategy under the sun must be accompanied by the Golden Rules; otherwise the joy of trading won’t last long. I need to mention this fact: Trainees simply do themselves a favor when they get coached by successful traders who’re also talented teachers. It’s common for someone to think they’re doing you a favor by hiring you to coach them. Unless the coach isn’t a successful trader on her/his own (which is very common), it’s the coach who’s doing the trainees a favor by revealing their winning systems, which took them many years to perfect. It’s a great joy for me to see that some of my former trainees are now successful – a good evidence that difficult markets produce fine results. One of those successful traders who happened to be a past trainee is called Caleb by name. He got coached several years ago and undoubtedly, he was practicing with the markets. Last year, some of his acquaintances told me that Mr. Caleb had been making money from the markets. That was no big deal, for the Golden Rules of trading work for everybody who applies them faithfully, but what made me surprise was the fact that year 2015 was a very difficult year for traders, and if anyone made money in the markets in that year, then it’d be much easier for the person to make money in years when the markets become favorable. I began to plan an appointment with Mr. Caleb because his trading results in the year 2015 were 3 times better mine (who’s his former coach). Some days later, he sent me his full account history. I was amazed to see that he made decent profits in the most difficult months of that year. This guy wasn’t a lucky gambler who used high risk to make maximum profits in a short period of time. Instead, he’s a conservative trader who goes for very small but consistent profits. I was also amazed by these facts I discovered in his trading habits: 1. His was trading manually 2. His trading took him only 5 hour per week, for he was then working full time for an employer 3. His position sizing methods were safe and sensible 4. He used stop loss and stuck to them religiously 5. He’s one of the most disciplined traders I’ve ever seen. He sometimes cuts his negative positions before they hit his stops 6. He sometimes used take profits, but not always (a method exposing him to unlimited gains which can wipe out his many small losses) 7. He’s the fortitude and patience to endure days or weeks of losses, knowing that some big wins would soon wipe out those losses The above list is part of his secrets. I think some of these things are what every trader should do, irrespective of their trading methodology. One day, as I was walking beside a paved road on a campground, he pulled up his jeep and gave me a lift. We talked briefly and he gave me an appointment. I appreciated this because he was a very busy man. That’s another point. He was able to trade his way to success despite his very tight schedule, contrary to the excuses certain people give for not trying trading (they wrongly think they’re too busy to trade). I was able to see Mr. Caleb where he lived. He told me that the trading method he used was similar to what I gave him several years ago, but with some modification. What was this modification? That was what I wanted to know. Clearly a former trainee can become better than his coach. Mr. Caleb is a good example. He’s a bright trader indeed! I interviewed him about his entry criteria, risk control style and money management approach. What were his stop loss and take profit levels? What factors did he consider before making trades? What about his exit strategies? Mr. Caleb took out his laptop and explained everything to me in a generous and transparent way. The interview was an eye-opener. It would be posted in the second part of these series, so that you can gather some points that might potentially help you in your own trading too. This piece is ended by the quote below: “The fact that I trade my own strategy, in my own broker account, lets people know that I believe in my own work, and I'm willing to stand behind it with my own money.” - Jan Roozenburg Copyright: Tallinex.com
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