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karoshiman

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Posts posted by karoshiman

  5. Posted

    Consider studying the geometry of wolfe waves as a potential pattern to add to your arsenal, it may keep you out of early entry and help your specificity for price targets and stops. Or maybe you've already heard of it.

     

     

    Thanks. Had to google these. From what I've understood about them, I'm not sure how they would have helped me here... can you explain?

     

    My mistake earlier was, that I've used a pattern before it was even established... :crap:

  9. Posted

    I agree with your argument somewhat. Oversimplification is just as dangerous though but it does remedy our ego and expectation when we fail.

    Have you read "Trade What You See" by Pesavento. It will start you on the path of defining basic patterns objectively. I think you will find it very valuable and recommend it.

     

    Cory

     

     

    You are right. However, I am sometimes surprised how some traders on these forums analyze (or better: rationalize) individual trades so extensively and argue with others about these. Each individual trade is only one data point of many...

     

    Thank you for the book suggestion. Will check it out!

  10. Posted

    If you don't mind me asking, are most of your swing entries based upon classical TA? By that I mean basic chart patterns?

     

     

    I don't mind :)

     

    Yes, they are. It's plain and simple. I think that often people try to overcomplicate things and at the end they don't see the wood for the trees... although, I am not yet happy with my results. I'm leaning towards taking some profits early in order to reduce my risk faster.

  17. Posted

    Haha... 2 devils on my shoulders... :)

     

    Yes, who knows what happens... but currently, it looks promising...

     

    I remember this quote from Partridge :) Should have reminded myself of that before taking the short for the pullback... liquidating the long was okay, but going short right afterwards was maybe a bit too much.

     

    However, as it seems that this was the move to shake out the weak longs (myself included!) and price now continuing higher, scenario #2 looks more probable.

  21. Posted

     

    ...

     

    If that means I make no trades because the markets are not trending nicely... so be it

    If that means ES starts to rally from 1500 and I miss the trade because I was hoping for 1450... so be it

     

    ...

     

     

     

    I like that attitude :)

     

    Are you trading also other instruments, than FDAX, ES, etc.?

     

    Thanks for the book title!

  24. Posted

    Hi Karo,

     

    I appreciate the sentiment of this thread - swing trading is increasingly of interest to me (very short-term background) particularly since I re-read Jessie Livermore + Stanley Kroll books.

     

    I don't like to clog up someone else's thread, but I'd like to share a few of my favourite quotes from Kroll & Livermore...

     

    "The experts are frequently wrong. A good technical approach to investing and timing, coupled with sound money management and a focus on trend following rather than trend predicting, are really the recommended ways to operate for optimum success."

    ed: It is so true that analysts like to wheel out explanations for large market moves long after the fact became apparent on the chart isn't it?

     

    "Every time you take a with-the-trend position, you should premise that you are in for a mega-move. By so doing, you will be encouraged to hold the position and not look for short-term trades. Let your stops take you out of those trades which fizzle"

    ed: With this in mind, I think it really should be no surprise if the swing trader takes several small losses to every winner.

     

    "Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks."

    Ed: And with that last one I'd simply like to give my very general thoughts, like Mr Partridge did in Jessie Livermores books, on the major stock index futures.

     

    Displaying FDAX here, but FESX, ES would show the same story

     

    http://s17.postimage.org/nyw96313h/FDAX_UP.png

     

    I ask myself - what would Jessie do? Would he try and pick a top here on account of the bearish Fed Statement last night about curbing QE?

    No, I believe he would be looking to buy simply on account of the path of least resistance being to the upside!

     

     

    Hi Lastninja,

     

    Thank you for the quotes!

     

    I liked the "Reminiscences..." book about JL very much, but still have to read his own book.

     

    Didn't hear yet about S. Kroll. Which one of his books do you recommend? Saw on Amazon that he published a few.

     

    The FDAX chart looks tempting for a long... price "resting" just above a former confluence zone. A nice trade from a risk reward perspective.

     

    But I do not agree, that ES or YM look similar. On these, you see some space until the next support zone (around 13,500 for YM IMO, see attached).

     

    So, I do not try to copy JL's trading style as I try to trade the pullback here (which could also develop to something more, of course) ... one man's trend is another man's pullback... ;)

     

    I do agree that I mix up my trades a bit. Sometimes I try to get the bigger moves (which up to now did not work yet :( ... but, on the other hand, only 3 months have passed since the start of this thread) and sometimes I look for the "smaller" moves. Today's markets are behaving (currently, at least) different compared to the time, when JL made (and lost) his fortune. Unfortunately, big trends seem to not occur too often these days.

     

    Cheers,

    k

    YM_D_2013_02_21.thumb.JPG.0081db7a91745d6a627dd1a8bc02a5e8.JPG

  25. Posted

    Do you have any profit/stop targets you are presently holding?

     

     

    If we go back up to this week's open, this trade is not valid anymore IMO and a long position would be appropriate.

     

    This down move can still be only the pullback everyone (except me, earlier ;) ) was waiting for, before the up move is resumed. I see potential for the shorts down to the 13,500-ish area, but might scale out earlier.

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