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karoshiman

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Posts posted by karoshiman

  2. Posted

    Your original concept of a weakening upmove is I think the context to look at the market in. This top is volatile with a wide range, could signal a change in the opposite direction.

     

     

    You are right, this may very well have to do with this. Although, I would expect an even wider range for a top of this kind.

  4. Posted

    Great call and a wise decision for sure!

     

    ... not in hindsight... but you never know...

     

    I'm currently thinking about trying to benefit more from the shorter term fluctuations, i.e. holding my positions only 1-3 days instead of several days or longer as there are more opportunities, I think (also, to lose money, of course ;) ). Need to make up my mind about that.

  6. Posted

    It tested the previous low of 14308 from a few days back. In my opinion it came too close to previous support before being bought up again. Another punch through that zone and you could see a wild ride to the downside!! Keep your eyes open for sure!!

     

    All the best! Cory

     

     

    Will do! ... Thank you!

  10. Posted

    Karoshiman, why are you choosing to trade the far less liquid dow future, when you could trade the emini s&p instead? Do you find there is something you like about the dow in specific when compared to the nasdaq, emini S&P or even the russell?

     

     

    Liquidity is not an issue at the current stage of my account size.

     

    What I like about YM compared to ES is the granularity of it ($5 tick size vs. $12.5).

     

    I like to trade NQ as well (like I did in this journal several times), but I do not expect a big move of NQ to the upside, whereas I see that in YM/ES.

     

    I tried to have a look at the Russell, but to be honest, up to now, I had some issues with the data. The charts did not show properly. But I will look into TF.

  21. Posted

    I wonder about the usefulness of trendlines or channels. A pseudo science for sure. I studied them extensively and have found them to be of no value. They remove simplicity and try to replace it with a false sense of context. We've all been force fed their legitimacy for sure. Perhaps you get more from them than I've learned to.

     

     

    Agree. I find (usually) their break more useful than their continued validity. However, a "trend channel" is nothing more than higher/lower highs and higher/lower lows, which basically defines a trend. But I agree that it doesn't have to be so "clean" along a trend line.

     

    My mentioning of them regarding ES and NDX was more meant as a context to show that these 2 behave differently than YM. Obviously (now :) ), ES and NDX provided the "false signals" here.

     

    This whole YM trades of mine show beautifully how markets do trick people. I think most people behaved like me. Otherwise, this up move wouldn't have been possible (shorts covering their positions). I was right with my very first assessment of YM, but got caught up in the - admittedly strong - day-to-day fluctuations, which for me, are unusual for bull markets.

     

    I still do believe that we are near a top. But for the time being, markets "want" to go up...

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