Cory2679

Yeah, but STILL, even if you consider everything you know to consider, I doubt you can find two truly identical situations (EDIT: ie, specific news that's coming out, the time of day/year, players in the market, which players are on the sidelines, how big they are, infinite number of timeframes of charts that may indicate different things, certain indicators that are giving signals, and the list goes on forever). If someone were to do what you're talking about, and decide that such and such trade was a loser BECAUSE of this and that (lets say you've had 2 losing trades on a seemingly identical setup), I think that will lead to filtering trades which overall may be a mistake. For example, if one of those trades that Thales posted as "trying to get a loser" was a loser, you might say "Oh, that was a loser BECAUSE OF such and such on that chart, and I won't take a trade like that.", when really it may have been just fine to get into. Basically, EVERY situation/setup you get into has a chance of being a loser, and if you filtered out every potential losing trade, you'd end up with NO valid setups in the end... This is an extreme example and I'm sure you wouldn't take it that far, but I was just trying to make my point. I'm not trying to argue or anything, and I know you have a lot more experience that I do, but that's just what I thought when I read that so I thought I'd share. -Cory

Nothing's really every "identical," in my opinion. It may seem like it, but there may be other things on the chart that make the situation different that you might not notice. I think a practice like that could be dangerous. Just my

Geez...and I might have taken that trade too, had I not been in the JPY trade. :doh: I don't like multiple positions at once. One, I don't have the size (edit: I mean technically I could, the margin requirement's only $500, but I'd be too leveraged for my taste), and two, it makes me nervous becaue the currencies seem to be fairly correlated, and I feel like if I have on multiple positions it's almost like doubling up on one position...

Looks like it was too tight. Oh well, I just wasn't comfortable at the time with what it was doing. (I don't regret my decision based on what was happening in real time.)

Stopped out at 1.1599, for a 6 tick loss. I was tempted to get to BE a couple times but never did.

Here's a clearer picture... And you got 1:1 on that...

Why not like this, Gabe?

Moved to 1.1599...might be too tight, but like I said...getting impatient...

Moved stop to 1.1602. I'm getting a little impatient with this trade...

Currently in JPY/USD short...bounced off resistance (thick red line), printed a lower high... Not looking too great at the moment...still in, though...this will be it for me today... -Cory

Made my second live trade with this approach! Another winner! (My first was last night, which I posted on here.) I got short for a small move on the GU. Price had broken through my drawn support and came back up, so I set my sell stop one tick below the low that had broken through my support... Sorry not real time...I'll try to do better...I'm just starting live so I'm just really focused on the price and don't want to worry about posting it... (I made the previous post so it was semi-real time. )

Currently short GU (6B)...PT at 1.6403...had a print of 1.6404...then bounced off...my stop is at 1 tick better than BE (to cover commission)...sorry not real time...I'll post a chart in a few minutes...

Looks like the break didn't stick, and it soon reversed. Based on the PA, I'd like to think that would have been a break-even trade for me. There were some short opportunities, shorter and longer term, as a result of the bounce off the resistance, but I was not up then...

They might not get it exact, but they generally have the right idea...they don't predict 100 degree weather on a day there's a blizzard...(of course that's extreme, but you know what I mean...) I think that if meterologists could bet each day on whether it was going to rain or not, I think they would be wildly profitable in the long run. This is an interesting random discussion, because I met a trader from Tudor via video conference, and he actually employed 2 meteorologists to help him at his trading desk (commodities that are strongly influenced by the weather situation)... He was actually featured in Trader magazine in the 30 under 30 issue...I can't remember his name right now...

Educated guesses...the same way meterologists, in their prediction of the weather, can only make educated guesses.

Yeah I saw the "ending diagonal", or the "wedge", and price broke below that and began the downtrend. But he had already mentioned that, so I thought maybe he was alluding to something other than that, and something other than the standard H, L, LH, which also has formed on that chart... -Cory

I'm still new at this...and I have to say I honestly don't see any particaular pattern, other than the H, L, LH pattern that everyone's always looking for...but for some reason I get the impression you might be alluding to something else...something I may not even be familiar with... But if it isn't, and you're just talking about H, L, LH, then that is obviously there...but I feel like that's just too obvious... I haven't taken any trades. I actually just got on here...overslept a bit... :embarassed:[

Looks like the BP (EDIT: GBP/USD) may be able to push up to 1.6640...just broke some resistance...I almost went long with a buy stop @1.6576, but at one point when I looked at my DOM, there was a 4 tick spread for a moment...no thanks. I think I'll just stick to trading in the morning. I almost went short as well, because there looked to be a double top forming, but that went on to break the high, which would have triggered the long at 76. No actual trades though, just observations. I think I'm calling it quits now...I'll get started early tomorrow... As of now, it's not really exploding up or anything...oh well, not my concern!

Does anyone on here that trades currency futures generally trade the Tokyo session with them? This is my first time tonight, and it seems like overall, the volume, spreads, and slippage (all related, of course) are much less favorable. That's not just based on my experience tonight...I've scrolled back through charts with volume plotted and Tokyo is substantially lower...London tooks all right and defintiely the first half of the NY session... Not to mention, tonight seems like a relatively high volume night compared to some other Tokyo sessions...I could be mistaken though, I didn't do THAT much research. Thanks, Cory

I took this trade! I handled it kinda funny, though... I'm trading the 6B...My initial buy stop was @ 1.6513, with a S/L of 1.6470, with a PT of 1.6554... Pulled out for BE (actually an average of 0.5 ticks of profit).. BTW, got slipped 2 ticks on my entry...geez... EDIT: It was actually 1.5 ticks. THEN, I actually placed a buy stop at 1.6534 (the "high", ie where Thales got BE, was 1.6530 on my chart), so a print of 1.6534 would mean a significant breakout of the high... Then I got filled, put my S/L at 1.6513 (what would have been BE on my original trade), and my PT at the original 1.6554 (about a 1:1 R/R situation). Got profit...ended up with 20.5 ticks of profit between both of the trades. I guess I could have put my second trade buy stop @ 1.6531, but I picked 34 just because it was right in the middle between my original entry of 13 and my original PT of 54. I normally wouldn't handle a trade this way but it seemed reasonable in the moment, and turned out well. -Cory EDIT: It would have probably been more prudent to take the trade Thales just mentioned, rather than doing what I did. Oh well...I think I was a little distracted because I was thinking about the trade I was just in, rather than looking for the next opportunity. Even though it worked just fine this time, and I think my handling of it was all right, I need to forget old trades and move on to new opportunities...

Ahh...good point, Marko.

People keep attributing Thales' success to years and years of experience, and an almost subconcious way that he must filter his trades because of those years and years of experience. BUT...did he not teach his daughter to trade in a MONTH?...and then she subsequently went to trade for the 3 month summer, turning $25 into nearly $1,000...after just a month of pre-trading training? I don't know THE answer as to why some people seem to pick this up and some people seem to struggle a lot, but based on the example set by his daughter, I don't think the answer is simply that he has years and years experience, and someone without the experience won't succeed. I don't know the answer, but I don't think the answer is lots and lots of time and experience. It must be something else... Just my -Cory

IT DID! IT DID! It did have further to go! Bounced right off my anticipated support... ...missed out on 77 ticks had I gotten in where I said (I'm truly planning to go live Monday!). EDIT: Sorry, I'm just a little excited...that's the biggest move I've ever "called," so to speak...still new at this... EDIT2: Looks like I shoulda/woulda/coulda gotten long off of the bounce off my anticipated support and the higher low (like Thales pointed out). I'm kicking myself...I've missed out on what seems like 100's of ticks by sitting on the sidelines all this time. I can't wait for Monday!!!!

Hey guys, I just pulled up the GU...curious to see it after Thales' trade last night... I wonder...does it still have further to go?? My first chart is the 4 hour chart, and a line that I'd consider strong support...perhaps this support will act as a "magnet"? That's not to say there couldn't be a pullback before it reaches that level... I was tempted to short where where I've indicated on my 15 minute chart, but I'll think I'll just stick to the sidelines for this one...I'm not necessarily comfortable with jumping into a move that has already come SO far. -Cory