Cory2679

Hi MK, ^^True. Furthermore, I'll be "formally" demo trading all of next week with these charts... ...so if during that week I decide that I think that 4 pairs is too much, I will trade fewer pairs. When I say "formally" demo trading, I mean I'm going to treat next week, just the 1 week, as if I were really trading real money...actually entering all my trades into the demo account, etc...just to get into the swing of it before I go live. -Cory

Hey guys, This will be my last post this week...I have to go holiday shopping in a few minutes... I've just been "getting ready" to go live recently. I've got my desktop setup the way I want it, I think... Across I've got the EJ, EU, GU, UJ...down I've got the 15 minute "normal view", then the 15 minute zoomed out view, then the 4 hour zoomed out view. I'd like to throw a range chart on there, but they will start to get crammed. I've got a huge monitor so the 12 look all right. My fxcm platform is on a separate computer (my laptop). If I want to view a different chart, such as a daily or maybe a range chart, I'll just have to use one of the charts on there, then change it back. I welcome any suggestions on how to improve this/things I'm "missing." Originally I set it up to just have 4 bigger charts (1 chart per currency pair) that I would change the view of if I wanted to view a zoomed out chart, 4 hour chart, etc., but I like this much better. Random note: I've noticed that sometimes adjusting the scale makes things clearer. I've included 2 charts of the GU...the first looks like a mess (in my opinion), and once condensed a little, the second is more readable. Like others have said on here, I wish ninja had a fixed scale option. Looks like it's coming, though. Next week I'm going to "formally" demo trade, then go live on my $250 account the next week. Happy holidays! -Cory

Thanks, Kiwi! I like that a lot! Very helpful. -Cory

The first quote here is something that has been discussed more than once in the history of this thread. The second quote is something that is relatively fresh in my mind from reading Darvas and O'Neil a week or two ago. However, when I made the post yesterday that resulted in the top quote, that concept had basically slipped my mind. Also, as far as price "stair stepping high forming a succession of higher bases on bases (William O'Neil's term) or a series of Darvas Boxes"...this had also somewhat slipped my mind when I was looking at the chart. I just had the realization that I can focus on a specific concept/pattern/whatever so narrowly, that other concepts I have learned slip my mind. I was so focused on what I saw as S/R or a H&L "pattern" that everything else had left my mind...I guess this is an example of the trees/forrest expression. Anyways, I just had that realization so I thought I'd share it...hopefully now that I've come to realize it, I can work on preventing that sort of thing from happening again. I may even write it down. -Cory

I would have my eye out for a short at this point... I marked some (not all) S/R levels. We are currently at resistance, and the steep decline caught my eye. The "pattern" is not fully formed yet, so we'll see. The higher resistance, thales's "PT," is obviously much stronger a level than the lower R level, but nevertheless, I'd still have my eye out for a short. I could be totally wrong. NOTE: I welcome any criticisms of my analysis. I feel like I'm probably doing someting "wrong" if I'm looking for a position against thales. :o But, I guess what could happen is that the "pattern" never completes and we hit new highs. At that point, I'd really be focused on what price was doing around that higher resistance level.

Thales I know you had a PT for the long much higher,..but would you consider a short now?...at the session highs? EDIT: I say "PT" loosely...I realize you're not trading... I've attached 2 charts...(FXCM marketscope....I don't have ninja on this computer...I need to get it)... The first charts shows that price is indeed at resistance, and the second chart shows the HLH pattern... (Obviously price would have to break the low) -Cory

Better safe than sorry. You could always jump back in at the break of the high (depending on the circumstances). EDIT: Although, I can tell you in this case, personally, I wouldn't feel comfortable jumping back in and holding to that second PT...that's a long way away...l'd probably have a profit target at that major low that had just occurred (about 1/3 of the way between your PT1&2). Just my -Cory

Well, just for fun, I went ahead and marked up the chart up from this morning. Enjoy! (2 trades off smaller-term swings and 1 trade off the larger swings)

No charts from me today...I had some things I had to take care of this morning...it's ashame too, because there looks like there were some good moves on the EJ (what I've been watching this week). I'll be back Monday. Monday I'm going to watch 3-4 currency pairs... Have a good weekend! -Cory

Sorry for the lack of clarification...just got caught up in what I was doing and wasn't thinking about it... :doh: Thanks for the reply, Thales. -Cory

Thales, Here was how I saw the 6E today...I marked up the chart... The trade you referred to would have been 32 ticks...4,000/(12.50*10) I'm assuming you guys didn't start before 5am, so I bracketed 5am-5pm. I assume you probably didn't even start that early...or trade that late... I only see 2 swings where I think 32 ticks is reasonably possible. I labeled the major swings...the gray arrow I think isn't applicable for the time you were trading, the red arrows I think are too small, and the 2 green arrows represent swings I believe are large enough to reasonably pull 32 ticks... I think the trade was likely on the down-move. I marked 2 possible entries and 2 possible PT's. HOWEVER, the biggest problem I have here is how the PT's were determined...price hadn't traded that low in months to give what might have been a shorter-term support level to take profit. Also, I marked a level of support...the blue horizontal line (it had been tested twice, recently)...which made me a little nervous for the short...I think a BE would have been in order once price hit that level (which, this time, would have still allowed you to get to profit). The up-move, where I put my entry, would not have been big enough. If you got in closer to the bottom though, you could have gotten 32 ticks. So, in summary, I'm not exactly sure... :hmmmm: Thanks, Cory

Thanks for the reply, Thales. I had "deleted" the post before you replied because of what you just said...about my getting confused. I decided to step away, not to let myself get off track and confused, and just focus on what I've been doing that has seemed to be working (that I have indeed learned from this thread!). NOTE: I'm always second guessing myself, especially because even though it seems to be "working," technically it's not unless I'm trading live and I've made consistent money with it. My posts on here and demo trading don't really "count" as far as whether what I'm doing works or not. But, I'll be trading on a live account again soon enough...

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I've attached the sentence in context so you can get a better idea of what he's talking about (I figure I certainly can't explain it any better than he can! ).

From my understanding, he believed that no, not everyone truly wants to succeed in this business...deep down. He believed there was some sort of subconscious desire not to succeed...or not to do as well as you think you want to do. He gave an example of a lady who was dying, and out of pity she basically had control over her friends and family. When offered a "cure," she made excuses and finally outright refused the cure...the pity she received was actually more valuable than her own life. So basically, there's something that you get from failing that you truly deep down want. Maybe it's pity or something else. Honestly, in my opinion, I thought he took it a little to the extreme, but who am I to judge compared to him?? It's an interesting idea, though. -Cory

Hey MK, Thanks for the advice. Although for the record, I'm not demo trading for the sake of demo trading...I'm only demo trading to get used to the platform. Rather than demo trading for the sake of demo trading, I've decided to begin live with a $250 account. Real money, but real money that if I lose won't affect my life...I feel like plain demo trading could potentially do me more harm than good (for the reasons you point out)!...hence my $250 account decision. I'm not going live until the very beginning of January...it's just not the best market conditions right now, and it gives me time just to watch the markets and get 100% comfortable with the platform and how to deal with the spread (plus it'd be one more account that I have to worry about come tax time---I've never done trading taxes before...this is my first year with any trading $$ to account for). As far as hindsight, the trade I just posted was a real-time post I posted on here this morning. I was caught off guard today because I had forgotten about the FOMC announcement (as a general rule, I usually don't trade FOMC days), but I left the trade in to see how FXCM would react/how the spreads would behave/what would happen with the trade at the time of the announcement (to basically "test" FXCM...nothing to do with what I would have or would not have done if it were live)...and I was thinking aloud of how I might handle major economic news next time (creating a "rule," if you will). That's all... And don't worry, I don't take it as you being mean...I appreciate the words of advice! NOTE: Just to be clear, the question mark on my chart did not mean "which way will it go?" I really only meant it to mean something like "maybe it will do what I've outlined?"...the question mark was probably just confusing... I was anticipating price to fall (hence the down arrow). -Cory

Nice to see it eventually got into gear...even if I wasn't there for the ride. I guess if I was really committed, I could just widen my stop to allow for an increase in spread during news like the FOMC announcement. Still though, I'd probably rather just stick to the sidelines...or, as in this case, I could have waited until after the announcement so I could watch how price reacted to it...I could have still jumped in and caught that move. Just things to think about.

Thanks, Kiwi. Those risks associated with the bucket shops do make me weary, but I thought I'd give FXCM a try because of the praise Thales gave it. I haven't really ever heard anyone (who knows what they're talking about) talk so highly of a spot forex broker! :o I really want to trade a very small account in order to keep my emotions in check. See: In reality though, I will probably just avoid trading around major economic news like the FOMC announcement...better safe than sorry. -Cory

Well...you can't tell on this chart, but I got stopped for a full loss of 23 ticks on my FXCM demo account... I remembered today was an FOMC day about half way through the trade. In reality, I am 100% sure I would have just gotten out at BE once I remembered today's 2:15 ET announcement, but since I was demo trading, I figured what the heck, I'll see what happens (basically to "test" the FXCM platform)... I was actually pretty impressed. The spread did go crazy...got up to 4-5 ticks and even went negative (the bid was higher than the ask for a second). BUT, that's not really too bad for an FOMC day! I'm sure Oanda was 10-20 ticks! (Note: I've used Oanda before, several months ago, so that's why I keep comparing FXCM to Oanda...in case anyone was wondering). Note: Now that I think about it, I wish I would have opened up my old Oanda account to compare the spreads...just for curiosity's sake. Oh well. Note2: This may not have been the best opportunity anyway...there was an awful lot of congestion. I don't know. Oh well, moving on...

Short on EJ... I'm making an attempt at what Thales did that time...getting in off a smaller swing to catch the move of the bigger swings. We'll see what happens... Also, this chart shows the conclusion of yesterday's trade. I had hit PT1 on my last post yesterday, and as you can see, PT2 was eventually hit, but not before getting taken out at BE on the second half... NOTE: Looking at this chart, it makes me feel confident in my choice of PT's...you'll see that price stopped and reversed at both of them! -Cory

Very last update on the EJ today...got PT1...stop at BE waiting for profit target 2...

Here's an updated chart. It's dragging its feet, but the spreads are still low... This will probably be my last post today. I doubt there will be anything worth posting later judging by how it's coiling up and dying...plus I'm probably leaving my house in an hour or two. I have an order in on my FXCM UK demo account, but like Thales said yesterday, with this coiling action I'd really like to see an impluse move to make me confident in the trade. -Cory

Potential EJ short...

Well, here's how the EJ looked when I opened it up this morning. Looks like the trade yesterday would have been profitable, had I not squeezed my stops too tight. Also, I marked what I saw would be two trades since the last time I looked at it. (Hindsight, of course). Even though I can't guarantee how I would handle them in real time, I feel certain I would have at least taken the trades because they're pretty obvious. Although, the first one looks like the R:R isn't quite 1:1, so I don't know about that one. Right now I'd just be playing the waiting game... BTW, the spreads are small again this morning. Current EJ is 1.2 and I've even seen 0.5! -Cory

Last look at the EJ before I head out for the evening. I actually jumped in really late on my FXCM UK demo account and got stopped out at 129.774...just to try out the platform. The platform is really simple, which is nice (the UK account is just as simple as Oanda). Of course, it'd be nice to have a DOM, but I'm only trading 15 minute charts so I have more than plenty of time to enter my orders by typing them in. With Oanda, you can dial down lot size do the single unit, but why would anyone even need to be able to do that? With a micro account, you can dial down to 1,000 units and in my opinion that should be plenty. The more I've thought about the NFA regulation, the more it puzzles me. I'm sure they have their reasons...I don't care though, as long as the UK account stays the way it is. I'll be curious where the EJ is when I get home tonight. Right now, it's just not getting anywhere (obviously it's a poor time to trade, anyway). -Cory