Cory2679

Update 3: Stop moved tighter. EDIT: I had made a mistake on my original image post, so I posted a new one, and now I realize the new one does not make obvious why I moved my stop, so I've now attached a 1 minute. Price was moving pretty impulsivly against me and I was looking for a solid natural area on the chart to where I could move my stop.

Update 2: PT1 hit, stop moved to BE.

Update: Stop moved tighter.

Sorry it's a little late...GU short...

The trade's done...made an average of 11.3 ticks. That's it for me today. ---------- I just had a realization while thinking about leverage, etc. It doesn't necessarily matter how many ticks you make because 15 ticks can equal 50 ticks in terms of $$, provided that you are managing your risk per trade as a % of account equity. On the same token, it doesn't necessarily make sense to measure performance on how much $$ you make, because that can just be manipulated by position sizing. (Hopefully this makes sense.) So, I guess what DOES matter: - Consistency - Using leverage that is appropriate. - Making a reasonable number of ticks...enough to cover commission, spread, etc. - Having the best risk:reward possible/having the highest win-rate possible (have to have a balance here). SO, my point/conclusion is...money/income is in a way a separate issue from trading itself...in a way... I've read things similiar to what I've just said before, but I've come to realize it in a new way I think. Just my Have a good rest of the day! -Cory

Well, I think I'm "done" for today. I'm currently in a short position on the UJ that has hit PT1. I have the second half at BE...OCO order for PT2 and BE. I apologize for not posting the chart in real time...was in the middle of lunch... I missed out on opportunity today... I missed this trade because I was in bed. I mised this trade because I was narrowly focused on the UJ (the EU trade and the UJ trade triggered at right about the same time). Also, there were obviously some great upmoves on the GU and UJ that I'm sure somebody made money with. At least I came out with something. I haven't had a losing trade yet this week! ...don't worry, I know that can be dangerous for my emotions for when I do get losers, etc... This will be the last day I post my FXCM trade window...I realize this isn't the P/L thread. I will just post it again today so nobody thinks I "decided" today I wouldn't post it anymore because I was trying to cover up poor results. From now on, I'll do my best to keep my posts in line with the original purpose of this thread: I know the people here don't necessarily care about my daily progress, updates, etc. I might give an update or two here and there in the future, just not every day/every other day! ---------- Question: Thales (or anyone else using FXCM)... When I'm in a trade and I set profit targets, what happens is this: Say I'm in a short position for 200 contracts. Then I have two PT's...100 contracts each. If those get triggered, what happens is that I'll be short 200 contracts AND long 200 contracts...rather than "closing out" 100 contracts each time. Then I have to "Close All for Symbol" once the trade is "done." Is this what you do, or is there a way to make it so it "closes out" of the short, rather than going long? Thanks, Cory

If I would have been up on time, I likely would have taken this short, too. Looks like it'd just about be to PT2. :doh: EDIT: Posted the 15 minute chart. Couldawouldashoulda (gotten up on time! )

Getting started a little late today...looked like a potential short, but now I'm not sure (it may continue upward). It may not be time yet, but I decided I'd just post the charts anyway... EDIT: No trade, price broke the prior swing-high.

My Morning: I had 2 trades today...both winners. I didn't post charts in real-time because there had already been posts about these pairs and I didn't want to be redundant (I know I sometimes flood the thread with my posts...this will likely be my only post today). Trade 1 (EU) resulted in an average of 37.35 ticks. Trade 2 (EJ) resulted in an average of 25.1 ticks. NOTE: The second half of Trade 2 (EJ) got stopped at PT1, even though it doesn't appear that it had gotten there yet on the chart. Total: 62.45 ticks. The $$ results are with "super crazy rodeo clown" leverage, with the $5,000 demo account. ---------- EDIT: If anyone is raising an eyebrow at the inconsistency between my "62.45 ticks" and the "46.7 gross P/L ticks" in my image, in order to calculate the ticks for our purposes here (62.45 ticks), I did the following calculation: EU: 50.5 + AVERAGE(-0.2, -26.1) = 37.35, etc.... The 46.7 just applies to the total gross ticks for the total amount of money traded...but I am calculating the total number of ticks "per trade"...if both of my trades would have been the same size, there wouldn't be the inconsistency... ---------- BTW, I found a convenient "forex profit calculator" on Oanda's website, for anyone who might be interested...it's helpful if you're defining your risk as a % of your account equity: Profit Calculator | Calculate Forex Profit - OANDA FXTrade I'm going to spend the rest of the morning/afternoon reviewing, then I'm leaving in 2-3 hours and I won't think about trading again until tomorrow! -------------------- Questions: Does this mean that whether you have an intial risk of 15 ticks or 50 ticks, the initial $$ risk is the same? Did you have any type of formula for this? For example, for every 20% return on the account (compounding), reduce risk as a % of account equity by 0.5%. I'm just trying to get straight what I want to do beginning next week. Thanks, Cory

Don't worry, I am! I don't think I necessarily have the problem of feeling like I need to make a specific $$ profit for the day in general, it's just that I (wrongly) wanted to "start the week right" for the last week before I go live...and I ended up doing quite the opposite as a result. I know...I'm getting a little carried away...dwelling on my trades from this morning. Right now, I'm going to just do something else and start fresh in the morning.

I will, thanks. I agree with you...I believe I forced this trade. After having only the break-even EU trade, and the fact that it was getting "late" in the trading day, I think I was desperate to make some money so that I wouldn't have a BE first day of "serious" demo trading. You'll notice that I initially didn't even take the trade in real-time, but decided to jump in when the market offered a "second chance" to enter. When I first saw it, I knew it wasn't ideal, but after my state of mind had been altered by the 1 breakeven trade, I took the trade. Also, just looking back at the analysis I posted, my analysis for the EU was "better" and more thorough (coupled with you and ziebarf...I can't take 100% credit for the analysis ). My analysis for the EJ honestly basically consisted of throwing up a 4 hour chart and looking for an excuse to get in. I'm honestly a little ashamed/embarrased. :embarassed: I'm glad to have experienced this today and hopefully learn from it, while not risking any real money (although, it would have been BE anyway).

After being away from the screen for a few hours, one thing I see now is that maybe I could have gotten in earlier on trade #2. Plus, overall, I don't think it was as ideal a setup as trade #1 (EU). I just took a look at the EU...it's still steadily trending downward...it's really ashame to have gotten BE on that trade... I keep replaying today in my head, a little discouraged by having a break-even day, but I've come to the conclusion that overall, I just don't think that during the time I was at the screen, there was a lot of opportunity for me (except if I had held on to that EU trade).

Today's Results: 2 Trades, Both Breakeven (both on a demo account). The first trade went ahead down to profit target 1 (without me ). - a trailing stop of the natural stops would have allowed me to hold for PT1...but I guess better safe than sorry...? Any feedback on my day from anyone is welcome!! I'm watching the EJ, EU, GU, & UJ...trading 8am-2pm EST (will hold to 4pm if in a trade). -Cory

Possible short on the EJ, which I didn't take but offers a chance for reentry...

I got stopped @ breakeven...even though on this chart it doesn't look like it even got close to the entry. Maybe I need work on my handling of the trade with the FXCM platform. What I'm doing is...if for example I'm getting short...I set the chart to the "bid" prices, then put my entry at 1 tick below the low. For my stop-loss, I set the chart to the "ask" prices and put my stop loss order at one tick above the high.

I don't know about you guys, but I am just raking it in on the UJ right now. :o EDIT: Just so no one who's reading this later takes this the wrong way, I've attached the current chart... The only things that've looked worse recently (with what I watch) are the GU&EU on Christmas eve...that was interesting.

I think the trendline "fan" would be a good example of this. I've attached a picture found online, but just imagine it long if you want. I think the "rule" is that price usually reverses on the break of the 3rd trendline, but that's not what I think is relevant to this discussion. EDIT: I don't think that is a very good picture because it does appear that price reversed at the break of the first TL, which doesn't make my point. Imagine price went further down the trendlines and continued to make LL's and LH's...just less and less steep as brice breaks the trendlines. EDIT2: I found a better chart...

Makes sense to me. I would add that it's not just short term resistance, I'd say it's a longer term resistance "zone"...check out my charts...BUT, I "wouldn't be surprised ;)" if price blasts through that level of resistance....price could be basing and climbing higher. On the 4 hour chart, you can see where the level of resistance has been significant before, and you can also see that there's a strong downtrend. -Cory

Sorry Thales, after I posted my post, I got off the computer and am just getting back on now...I wasn't ignoring you. I'll take a crack at it and post something tonight...but let me make clear... I understand this: What I didn't understand was this: I can definitley see why someone would anticipate price climbing to at least 132.50, and possibly higher (the 134.50-60 range). What I was curious about is why you thought at 132.50, price would likely retrace 1/3 to 2/3 of the prior upmove...rather than continue to climb to 134.50-60 uninterrupted (EDIT: which on your charts appears to be the "plan") I have a few initial thoughts...the only thing that comes to mind right now is that IF price did reverse at the 132.50 level, price would likely find support at such and such levels of support (which might happen to be at 1/3 or 2/3 of the prior upmove). But that's IF...why do you think that price will reverse at 132.50 rather than continue to 134.50? Do you believe that resistance is particularly strong? Maybe you believe that it is "due" for a pullback, and you believe that's a good area of resistance for one to occur (I don't think this sounds like you, but I could be wrong)? And IF it reverses, what makes you think it won't retrace 100% of the upmove? For me, it seems, I basically can't see/think that far ahead....I just have to wait to see what price does at those levels. If I think of something in addition to what I've said, I'll post it a little later tonight. -Cory EDIT2: OR...possibly I read too much into it...you said you "wouldn't be surprised" if it did that...maybe just a general statement because the market had climbed so far fairly sharply...maybe 1/3-2/3 wasn't based on S/R at all....it is probably worth noting that the prior sharp downtrend did indeed retrace about 1/3 or so...(or maybe a little bit more) EDIT3: Another thing I've noticed...the swings have gotten wider really recently...possibly weakness in the trend?...possibly indicating that price may reverse...at the next closest level of resistance (132.50)??

Hi Thales, If you aren't too busy , would you mind elaborating on why you think this? I'm not disagreeing by any means. I realize these are just your thoughts, that you could be wrong, and that you would wait to see what price indicated before you'd enter a short position, but I was just curious about your thought process and how you arrived at that conclusion. I see why you've chosen the "green line" levels. But honestly, at this point in my development, I would simply have to wait until price got there and see what it did...I couldn't say that I thought it would trade to 132.50, then retrace 1/3-2/3... Thanks, Cory

Woops....I lied....

Thanks for the info. Wow, that's unbelievable! About a 100,000% return in approx. 7 months!! :shocked: And that would just be "cash-on-cash" basis. I just wonder what the return would be, normalized for withdrawals! ...it appears that you guys withdrew about 80% of the $1K (and of course possibly more later on that I don't know about): Your daughter's story is honestly a large part of why I took this thread/concept so seriously once introduced to it...and why I've tried my best to do it "right." Hopefully my story will eventually have such a glorious outcome as well. :o We'll begin to find out fairly soon... -Cory

Regarding the recent bias discussion, I think my little experience just last week is relevant...just in case anyone missed it... (I didn't want to create a huge post of quotes for this, so here are essentially the "links" to the relevant posts.)

Thales, What % did your daughter use when she traded over the summer (and made roughly 40 times her money!)?...Or did she just trade x number of micro lots per x dollar amount of account equity?...Or...something else? Just curious. Thanks.

After playing around a bit... This may not work. 12 charts on one screen might be too small... If I had money to blow on computer hardware, I'd really like to have 1 screen per currency...maybe 2-4 charts per monitor of each currency...but no such money at the moment. It's not needed, it'd just be a luxury. Also, I'm considering going live just trading 1 pair then gradually working in the others. We'll see. I feel like I did well and could get a good "feel" for the market if I was just focusing on one. I almost feel a little overwhelmed, in a way, going from 1 to 4. I dunno, we'll see. It certainly wouldn't hurt. This is really my last post this week! You won't here from me again 'til Monday! -Cory