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gosu
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Everything posted by gosu
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i play only the extremes when volume is this bad.... they're 5m bars
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here's ym too.......
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volume is shit........
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Sunday opened with a BO on a gap up...
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I missed this funny post earlier. I don't know about the other two people you reference but I've hardly said anything in my posts about detachment, dispassion, impartiality, etc. The one time I used the word "dispassion" was in reference to your post in which you stated you don't trade because you lack the passion for it. Anyone who takes your advice to "really read" what I say about this is going to be disappointed. Regarding what allows me to "see" the market, you and I have very different takes, which is no surprise because you and I have very different orientations toward trading. Here's my take on what allows me to see the market to extract: I can see the market because I have my displays set up to watch the game from all the important angles and I understand enough about how the game is played that I can follow along as I watch and play when it's "cheap" to do so. I didn't have to learn detachment, dispassion, or impartiality. If they are inherent, it is because they are by-products of my being focused on the task at hand. I have no idea what you're talking about regarding turning this quality on and off because they won't bring "success" in relationships and outside of trading. Trading is just not that important to begin with. And regarding being a "successful trader," that has as much meaning to me as being a "successful driver." Same goes for the tired phrase "consistently profitable trader."
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Hi josh, i consider good or bad relative to what's offered....i had 2 good trades..one in the AM and one after midday..the rest of the day i was washing...i think also i feel good about the day because i chose to stick around rather than cut out early and i caught my best trade of the day by sticking it out. and yes, i agree with you...relative to other large gap open days, it wasn't that good a day...most of the move came ON. And on that sharp move at the close..i had just closed my short and mentally checked out of the market and was writing my post here while the best move of the day occurred...LOL but no matter, opportunities are endless. have a great weekend.
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I'm not sure what you mean by "stair step"... do you mean markets move in an ebb and flow? progress and retrace? dominant and nondominant moves? regarding the channel...i don't use the descriptor "well established"....all it takes is pts 1, 2 and 3...the channel gets drawn..that's my job...the market does what it does and it could BO of the RTL..it's not up to me... today ended on a retrace to the right side...anyone who thought it would sell off into the friday close got burned...as you saw the rally into the close....quite a few people were short and got squeezed (check volume, highest 5m V bars of the day were at the close) now it could be that the market BO's of the channel next week..that's not up to me either...what i know is that the container is there and i know the possibilities after the retrace...i just monitor and take action when required.... the channel is downsloping...therefore ST says trend is short....it could change next week of course and if it does, my job is to adjust...but this is the position of the indicies in the NOW.... let's see next week what unfolds.... have a great weekend, all... p.s. when i was writing that post about gap up on monday open, the market had not retraced much...my reference to the gift horse was an open near the RTL on monday...obviously now, it wouldn't be much of a gift as the indicies closed near the RTL.... i don't guess the markets but for shits and giggles if i HAD TO GUESS, i would guess a gap down over a gap up on the monday open...but guessing is not trading..i trade on knowledge and strive to minimize risk..that's all my job is... cheers
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LOL...i'd say that's pushing it.... left to right...then resumption...let's talk then...hehe
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41 on the es is classic...i like the 755 on the ym as well for the day...
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Despite the low volume it was quite a nice day. Was tempted to leave early for the weekend during midday dry up but glad I stuck around. I have the market as a short on ST, with a retrace of at least 2 days. nq is a pennant today so i count after today. es and ym count starts today on the BO short..they were showing weaker the past 2 days... a gap up open monday would be a gift horse i would accept without checking the teeth...this is just anticipation and not a prediction... good trading..
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Are you serious? LOL...there's nothing unique about that mindset. It's called stupidity.
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channels...i usually have an idea which are too steep so i don't bother with the left side on most of them.
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last one for the day....
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you're welcome. as for "choppy," that's what happens in a lateral. my monitoring for the close is the same as it was for the overall day...since nq is leading, the bo to newer highs is less important than the bo of es and ym of the ON high, as that is the missing piece so far today. now if nq fbo's on this morning's bo before es and ym bo above ON, that would be the "surprise" move...which is to say, i would look to buy the dip on the leader (nq) until either the fbo or bo of es and ym...the question is what happens on a bo of ON by es and ym....will it sustain?...i'll be watching closely for a fbo on those for sure...a bo and fbo on es and ym followed by a fbo on nq signals a short...since there is little time left on the day, it's possible we'll be left hanging without a conclusion.....there is always tomorrow, however...
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sorry josh, didnt have time to explain...but the lines are there for you to see..they don't come with the data...i put them there in advance.....i have a long channel in dotted red and a couple of trend lines inside the channel....also the horizontal channel....there is one down sloping line right before a teeny du bar...the bo of the teeny bar was telegraphed by the downsloping line...since nq is still outside of this morning's bo, the trend is long and the retrace midday has been a lateral across the red channel..."left to right" for the Hershey folk.s
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I tend to get the same way about overnight positions - being obsessive about checking on it. I've gotten much better about it by limiting it to a small account for my 4 year old nephew who doesn't know that his uncle is working to make him a millionaire by the time he goes off to college. I like the mindset of being "always in" during the week even if it's just 1 contract as it keeps my head in the game and keeps me sharp. Knowing the ST position at all times gives me a better read on the opens for the intraday trading.
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I've accepted the fact for me that this is a labor-intensive business and I deal with the grind by rest, nutrition, exercise, and periodic breaks. The thing that keeps me going is that I don't trade for myself. There is "free" money available but I have to be there and always ready to take it when it presents itself. I haven't figured out how to teach a program let alone another person to do that (yet).
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It takes very little knowing to minimize risks. Washing is always on the table and that is enough to participate regardless of eventual outcome.
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Knowing gets you partways there. Acting EVERYTIME on what you know takes you the rest of the way. Knowing is easy. Acting on what you know is sometimes easy and sometimes very difficult. Easy when doing the right thing is inline with being right. Difficult when it is not. I think you stated it very well the other day when you listed the pitfalls of being public about your trading and how it makes you want to be right. Cheers.
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a lot of good trading moves this morning. nq is leading the charge all the way which is consistent with yesterday's activity. es and ym are laggards. haven't had the time to read everything posted this morning, but i did catch the statement that you can't "know" in trading and that it's all guessing. This is simply not true from my experience. It is important, however, to determine what can be known and what can't be known. we're in midday now and the nq BO is continuing. the monitoring will be around whether es and ym will follow the nq BO (check the ON high) or nq will FBO. a FBO will be preceded by a rtrace of course and that will come sometime in midday on shrinking V. That is what i KNOW.
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Hi Tom, Just saw this post now. I use my own method to trade - no indicators, ma's, fibs, etc. Just price and volume and lots of lines drawn on charts. I have incorporated some of the Hershey people's nomenclature to describe market events...points 1,2,3 and ftt, BO, fbo, ftp, fbp, sym, etc., etc. I also use descriptors of "fractals" like ST (short term), IT (intermediate), LT (long term) etc., etc. Thus ST p2 refers to the point 2 event on the short-term fractal which is what i consider the key fractal for trading intraday. The move after p2 is a nondom move which precedes another leg in the dominant direction. That is, the move off the p2 is a retrace. As we saw intraday today, all reversals start out as retraces initially. hth
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Hi Tom, In general, yes. On initial entries i like to get a tick or two to cover costs on the wash. Less frequently i take a tick or two on the negative. Either way I consider it "breakeven." After a trade passes the initial stage, a wash is usually more than a couple ticks. This morning's short was washed for 2.5 points on the retrace but that's a wash to me because it was an action based on protection and not locking in profits. My intention was to play that trade as an interday hold and read the retrace as a nondom move. As an intraday trade, the correct exit would have been on the p2 prior to the retrace. hth even better would be a reversal at the p2 Today was an interesting day and I'll be saving the recording in a special folder named "fp3" to be compared with similar days. The first reversal was not a surprise but the second reversal was. Had the day began short and not as a long+reversal, the second reversal would not be a surprise; but then if the day began short, the second reversal would be the first reversal. nq is now in BO mode of the lateral on the ST without the ES and YM following suit; i.e., they are still in lateral. nq had been lagging until today and so i'll be monitoring for either a fbo on the nq or a BO on the es and ym on the ST. nq is signalling the market has at least another leg on the long side. cheers
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i was short then rev long then rev short now washed flat....my broker is very happy this day may be a rare double reversal day if pm rallies now back in short...v needs to increase and maintain or it's another wash wash.,,
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reversed short on slowing v washed - vdu/centering
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reversed long on failure to p3...