Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

cnms2

Members
  • Content Count

    341
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by cnms2

  1. Check this post from February 2007: Beginning with the attached snippet we see the first down channel (red), and within it, a red FTT. Rather than reverse at this point, The Forest View Trader holds until price breaks the right side trend line. At that point, the Forest View Trader Exits, and waits for the formation of a Point Three in the direction of the FTT (highlighted yellow). At this point, the Forest View Trader enters Long off the Point Three Formation continuing to hold until price breaks the right side trend line. Notice, at the top of the snippet, we see another FTT (circled). However, once again, The Forest View Trader does not reverse. The Forest View Trader holds until price breaks the right side trend line. Once again, the Forest View Trader then waits for a Point Three Formation (highlighted Green) in order to enter short (in the snippet example) as is the same direction of the previous FTT. Again, we hold as long as price stays within the Point Three Channel. Notice, how I draw in the taped channels only until I created a Point Three dominant trend. After that point, no need to draw in the taped channels (at this resolution). As you can see (and if you can't from the snippet and description, you will by looking at today's ES chart) 'flaws' have no place in the Forest View. We do not care what bars do within the channels. We only care that price stays within the channels or not. As price moves through the channel, you should remain ever vigilant to look for FTT's in an effort to learn to anticipate what happens next (To begin to peek over the hill for an advance warning). You should also continue to monitor Gaussians using the "bigger picture" as a guide. When an FTT arrives on scene, continue to walk through the sequence of events which you would normally do at lower level resolution (Reverse on the FTT, Exit on the FBO, Etc.)
  2. Congratulations! Your annotations nicely illustrate the validity of some concepts: "degap & carry-over", "order of events" introduced by Spydertrader, and currently embraced by Jack Hershey too, "the pattern", "jokari window", "volume leads price", "nested fractals", "volatility expansion", "ftt", introduced by Jack. Vienna's chart nicely shows nested fractals into your main fractal. It would be nice if you could illustrate on your example charts where are the entry, exit, and reversal (if that's the case) points, as per your trading approach (be it pt3 only, dominants only, or point to point, etc.).
  3. I recently found in a folder this chart (its annotations belong to a Tucson trader). It was attached to one of Jack's posts from last year, post quickly deleted. Maybe somebody wants to try his hand at annotating it. Maybe somebody starts a discussion on this or another chart.
  4. This morning Jack Hershey is making market comments and calls, including yesterday's call for today's open short. Check the posts' time stamps for reference.
  5. Today two traverses, one starting bar #9, and another starting bar #61, reminded me of an older Breakeven post.
  6. Over the last couple of weeks Jack Hershey posted at the end of the day the trading bars for that day and the open trade for the next day. They were very good for calibrating your trading fractal, and peeking into his MADA.
  7. I meant taking routine trades close to the end of the bar, or when there is only a slim chance that your analysis of that bar can still be materially affected. Obviously you have to use the emergency breaks if something out of ordinary happens: a news spike, etc.. I don't think that washes can be reconciled with end of bar trading.
  8. Pt3 trading is pushing the traverse trading one level finer, and choosing to trade only the second anticipated dominant traverse.On each chart resolution, the traverse level is the one that is the best defined by the volume sequences, and it is the optimum for the "end of bar" approach.
  9. Yes. I believe "end of bar" to be a low stress valid approach. If I trust the rest of spydertrader's teachings and recommendations, I see no reason not to believe him on the "end of bar" too. He seems to have went through all the tools, and eventually to settle for a lower stress approach of just a few trades / reversals per day. With this method price stops are not meant to be hit, excepting in rare emergency situations. To be clear: trading "end of bar" means that you'll not usually trade at the optimum moment, not even on the optimum bar, but you don't really need to do so. You just need a way of making money in a consistent manner. It is like in The Rolling Stones' song: "You can't always get what you want / But if you try sometime you just might find / You get what you need".
  10. I believe "staying on the same fractal" is way overrated The goal shouldn't be to stay on the same fractal, as much as being on the right side of the market on the making money moves. When there is a shallow retrace is better to hold through it, while when there's a steeper retrace is more beneficial to reverse, or at least to sideline. For that, I believe the basics of JH's method are the best tools: Jokari Window, FTT, page 1, etc.. If I remember correctly, somewhere in this thread Spydertrader wrote that he chooses to jump fractals when it's advantageous. Today, if you traded the 5 minute ES, end of bar, you may have made more than 25 points, $1,250 per contract, in 2 trades. Yesterday: 4-6 trades totaling more than 15 points, $750 per contract.
  11. I guess a more useful discussion would be at what moment one should've reversed short: 7,6,5,4, ..?
  12. Quick Facts about Rollover Day The following applies to many (if not most) futures contracts especially those from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Rollover is 8 days before expiration. Expiration is the third Friday of each quarter month (March, June, September, December) The contract letter associated with each month is: March=H June=M September=U December=Z Rollover is on a Thursday. Rollover is usually on the second Thursday of the month but will be on the first Thursday if the first day of the month falls on a Friday Volume shifts to the new contract at market open (09:30 EST) on Rollover day New day trading or swing trading positions opened on rollover day should use the new contract month irrespective of when you plan to close it. New swing positions might be better opened using the new contract if opened within a few days of rollover day. Market myths abound at rollover and expiration. Check the source and confirm the probabilities before believing anything
  13. You're correct: the stickiness to bid and ask, as well as the stickiness to one bid/ask pair and to the next bid/ask pair can be seen in real time, or on a video recording. The tick chart gives you some idea of this happening, but both the OTR and the tick charts use event driven x-axis. To illustrate what I tried to explain in my previous reply to you, and to answer your latest questions I attach three pictures: 1st: Jack's well known hand drawing "2 pair spike", on which I grouped the bid/ask flips in red and green squares. The drawing depicts how events would be seen on a time driven x-axis display. Time rolls on the x-axis at constant speed, so the OTR bars would appear of variable width, function of how long it takes the price to go to the next bid/ask pair. Red squares mark lower new bid/ask, and green squares mark higher new bid/ask pairs. 2nd: I blew out the charts around the first example you brought in discussion. By annotating RTLs and gaussians on the OTR, it can be seen how nicely the things roll from long dominance to short dominance, with completed sequences on multiple sub-fractals (NO NOISE!). In yellow I highlighted the ultimate change window on both the OTR and the tick charts. On the tick chart it can be seen how the bid/ask pair that follows the last high (very short) peak "sticks" for longer time. The OTR and the tick charts have different x-axis being driven by different events. The correspondence between events can be easily deciphered using the 5 minute red vertical makers, and the 2 minute white vertical markers, corresponding to the ES 5 minute, and YM 2 minute OHLC charts. 3rd: I marked in red the change in dominance on your chart snippet, and on my added tick chart snippet.
  14. I understand things differently, so I reach different conclusions. Firstly, MADA is applied from coarse to fine, not simultaneously, in parallel. Secondly, trends overlap, so there is a period over which the dominance gradually changes. There is a tipping point, but the process is not sudden. Going from coarse to fine, this period gets narrower. Also, WMCN is not prediction, and WWT / WTF is a rare exception, not a tool.
  15. As you wrote, you can use the OTR chart to draw containers and gaussians x2x2y2x, but you can also watch in real time the price flipping between bid and ask. You can see this flipping in real time on the 5 min chart too, but it is more clearly seen on the OTR, because you don't have the constraint of the time axis and the OHLC bars. The price flipping shows alternate periods of sticking to either the high or the low of the pair. You can see how the dominance changes based on the relative duration of the sicking high and low. You can see how this ratio changes from favoring on side to favoring the other side. If you look at a tick chart you can get an idea of that flipping. It's not like you could differentiate a 5 minute FTT on the OTR chart from other fine dominance changes on the fastest fractal, but that 5 min FTT is one of those dominance changes, so by aligning all the fractals' changes you can (seemingly) pin point the ideal 5 min dominance change point down to one tick.
  16. I'd extend the first lateral to the 8:35 bar, and I'd draw the R2R as attached. If I didn't annotate that lateral, I'd tighten the RTL to the 7:05 bar (pt3) and consider 7:20 as ftt of the up container.
  17. Are you asking if it is possible to anticipate at pt2 how steep will be the slope of the p2 to pt3 retrace? If the retrace gets back inside the old container (up, the gray RTL) it will be steeper, and the new non-dominant volume (black in this example) may occasionally exceed the new dominant volume (red). I also added a few annotations on your chart snippet, how I see it.
  18. The way I apply jokari the pt2 up is ~11:30 PST. It seems you don't use the translation based color coding (higher low and higher high => black, lower high and lower low => red).
  19. From this quote and some additional browsing of those pages, it sounds that it should be possible to make that prediction indeed, at least for that subset of laterals. However, my personal belief is that in principle it can't be done with 100% certainty, even for that subset. Anyway, I wish you good luck!
  20. If you meant "color" when you wrote "direction", I think we determine the color of any bar based on its extremes in relation to the precedent bar's extremes. I don't quite understand your if-then reasoning. Also, you don't present actual chart snippets, so it is more difficult to analyze them. Do you, or does anybody have a collection of quotes from Spydertrader posts (with links and time stamps) about being 100% certain about the direction price will exit a lateral formation? It might be beneficial to re-read the Master's words.
  21. Because you assumed you had an FTT, so the dominant direction is down. To have a new pt3 up you have to break the FTT bookmark.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.