Roger Felton

Such a great topic...too bad it sorta died on the vine. I've been using candlesticks for over 2 decades and will never again use anything else. Among the many advantages that this bar type offers, is the ability to see markets in ways that most traders don't know exists...yet. Personally, I believe that how you visualize the markets you trade is every bit as important as your method of trading them. Most traders are aware of the various common bar types such as the time-based, tick, volume, range, etc. For some time now I have been using bar types that give me a much clearer look at what Price is doing and where it headed. As an example, let's look at Gold (GC) in NinjaTrader: Chart A is a typical looking 5 minute (time-based) chart. The time spans late afternoon on 6/12/12 to the early morning of 6/13/12. As hard as you try, it's unlikely to get a good idea of what Price wants to do if you're a short-term intraday trader. If you're a trend follower, this market will give the ole buns a workout. It zigs and zags in herky jerky fashion and doesn't seem to want to hold a direction worth a hoot. No wonder so many traders get murdered trading time-based charts. Some improvement might be seen by moving to a Tick or Range chart. A lineBreak chart would not be a bad choice if set up right. Certainly, nothing could possibly be worse than this. But you will not likely to find a bar type that shows clearer Price movement than the Renkos. There are a lot to choose from, however. To solve this, I built a Renko Bar that can instantly be made into any other type of Renko. Any coder can do the same quite easily. Chart B shows the advantages of a Renko. This is a 22,1 Renko showing approximately the same period of time. Each bar body is 22 ticks and the step increments are one tick each bar. That is, each Renko bar closes one tick higher than the previous bar until it just can't go any further and reverses. This results in an incredibly smooth look at what price is actually doing without getting distracted by market noise. Traders wanting to use very small stops will choose a smaller number. Larger stair-steps can also be chosen but the bigger the steps, the jerkier Price will become. The Renkos sure made my job as a scalper a lot easier. Because I am a vendor, TL does not allow me to instruct how to build these Renko Bars or instruct anyone in how to use them. So, this post is only intended to get some traders to take a look at a wonderful bar type that, I find has tremendous merit. Various types of Renko Bars can be found on the Internet. Give 'em a try.

No, JMB...that's simply questioning, not attacking and I'm glad to address that. I assume you were asking me, by the way, but might have been directed at someone else. I would suggest using a smoothed stochastic and moving your stop only when it turned against you with an opposing bar. In your short, use each previous price high and place your stop two ticks above that. As long as price keeps trending...making lower highs and lower lows, your stop can't get hit. Price has to make a higher high to snag you...and the trend is over at that point anyway. At any point you get a strong signal against you, exit. The key word is, "strong". Basically, that's any trade that you definitely would take if you were hunting for a signal to enter. Ignore opposing signals you would not take. I spent several years developing unique entries and then spent triple that time defining why one signal type would be high potential and another one that appeared nearly identical would have a lesser chance before I pulled the trigger. Keep in mind that nothing is foolproof or absolute but you can still be objective and reasonably accurate. For dozens of reasons, I do not trade the Forex. Too many dead spots. When I enter a trade, I want to be making money after all the bills are paid (commissions, exchange fees, etc.) from the very first tick. I want to be able to get the exact fill I want. I don't want to be competing with my broker. I don't want market manipulation or corruption. In short, I want a level playing field and I never got that trading the Forex. When you get seriously involved in system development, you soon realize that the vast majority of technical analysis just doesn't work. And what does work needs more work to make it truly effective. The factors that determine the potential of a particular trade to reach it's potential profit level include (1) It's form. Weak form usually results in a weak result. Divergence is notorious for this. (2) Market condition. There are four market conditions that can exist at any given time. Two are strong contenders, one is weak and the final one is hopeless. (3) Historical market analysis. Looking at, say, the last 300 cyles of the market, analyze what happened on each cycle. How was the volatility? The level of noise (for stop placemant analysis). What happened in trends and what happened in sideways market? If trending, what was the slope angle and the channel width. How did the market react in gentle slops vs. steep ones? How about the various volume levels and their effect on price continuation? And what were your TA indicators telling you when a signal fired taking into account all of the variables above and more? Get the idea? Today's market's are very complex and the days of making money with Fibonacci and crossover MA's are long gone. Few humans can keep up with it all. Good job for code, don't you think? That code, by the way, must be able to quickly self-adapt to the market's nasty habit of changing dynamics with little to no warning. The idea is to let computer code do all the dog work...the measuring, figuring, data crunching and anticipating because that's what it does best. If coded well, it will spit out some amazingly accurate results. A good talented coder can probably do it in a couple of years...and worth every minute of the effort. But they first must be a trader. Coders who are not good traders to begin with will only create junk. Humans on the other hand, if properly trained and experienced, can far outperform computers in trade managment. That's the area where computers get really stupid sometimes. Humans can easily spot trouble when computers remain clueless. All the code in the world can't cover all the contingencies. Not being able to think is an unsurmountable disadvantage. Notice I said "trained" human. We're not talking about traders who white-knuckle the mouse and shake in their boots every time they enter a trade and allow their success to be sabotaged by negative human emotions. Most traders choose to be self-taught. Most professional traders I know had some form of mentor at some point in their career. Recognizing strong high potential market entries takes time to master but it's a heck of a lot easier when you incorporate effective code. Of course, that's only half the battle. The next question is, "High potential to make what?" Now we're talking Trade Management ...and that's a whole 'nuther topic altogether.

I personally would have a problem setting a profit target of just 3 ticks. That's "coffee money" even for a scalper like me. Keeping accurate stats on a trade signal's probability of success is difficult because they are all inter-related to what the current market dynamics are. How a particular setup worked yesterday...or even an hour ago...can have little bearing on it's chance of success now. It was just too much info to juggle. I had to build a separate code that looked at each trade in relation to what the current market factors were and then spit out an accurate evaluation of success probability expressed as a percentage. I usually ignore anything less than 85%. I took the code a step further and had it analyze many chart types and timeframes and tell me which woudl be the best to use...then constantly monitor the markets to let me know if it's selections changed. That's been one of the smartest things I've done in several years. The human mind can only do so much. The power of well written code is often overlooked by traders who try to do it all themselves and end up guessing. It's work, but well worth the effort.

I think the simple answer is, if you're consistently losing money on your trades, then they aren't high probability. Having traded both ways, trending and scalping for many years, I can see both sides of this discussion. There really is such a thing as a "high potential" trade. That does not mean that all the rest are necessarily low potential either. An example would be a trade that, historically has shown a 90%+ chance of making 10 ticks in say the CL or GC. But, extensive back and forward testing has shown that it only has a 40% chance of making 30 ticks. The bigger the target, the lower the chance of success. In many of today's markets, if you go for a high probability 10 tick target with a 3 or 4 tick stop, you just lost your edge. The high probability trade is only high probability if you get your stop out of the current market noise...and that can be an amount greater than 10 ticks. But what difference does it make if you are winning consistently and making your goal? Now the trader who's rules confine them to a 3:1 R/R takes a trade with a 20 tick stop for a 60 tick target. Perhaps it's the ES where it hadn't had a 60 tick range in a week. Over and over again, they are stopped out while they wait for that big home run. In order to stay with a true 3:1 R/R, they know that they cannot move their stop in order to lock in some profit because that would increase their chance of their stop getting hit. They end up most often risking 20 ticks for what turned out to be a 15 tick gain, or 20 tick...and that's on the ones that actually made some profit. The 3:1 R/R goes out the window. To make 60 with a risk of 20, you cannot move your stop or you skew the odds. Personally, I hate trading this way. You lose, lose, lose before you finally hit a payday. If I'm going to go for the big bucks, I have no profit target. I trail a stop until the market takes me out. My R/R is different for every trade. But a 3:1 R/R trader can only be that if they never touch their stop. It's a make it or break it proposition and, IMO, that's not a fun way to trade...nor, for me, is it profitable. That's not a criticizm, just personal experience. No trading method should be shot down just because it doesn't fit a traders personal style. If it works for one other trader, it's a viable method or technique.

When I went to college, I paid a tuition...a lot of tuitions, in fact. Technically, it was a tuition fee...a fee for knowledge. But it was always referred to as, "paid my tuition" and somehow that always meant "get out my wallet". If he did not mean it in that sense, then it was a misunderstanding, not a misstatement of facts. In any case, I declined his offer so I'll have to go with nincompoop. So, to please everyone, all offers of free assistance are withdrawn and none will be made in the futrue here at TL. It was a very bad idea and I apologize for offending so many by offering free help. Kind gestures aren't always taken in the spirit they were given.

My apologies, MM. I received a PM from MMS clarifying the matter. I didn't understand how offering to help TL members whom I can never under anycircumstances accept money from would be considered advertising. But, by the rules here, it is. I understand and will withdraw the free help offer and make no such offers going forward. My mistake and it will not happen again. Thanks.

MM, with all due respect, would you please explain how you merely "questioned" a "claim" that I had made and were responded to with name calling? It didn't happen that way and you know it. It was only after a bombardment of rude disrespectful comments by you and the others that I had to resort to defending myself and start stating the facts. Otherwise, these nasty comments go forever on the Internet thru search engines and that's all people would see. It stinks, for sure, but the comments were so vile and untrue that it forced me to respond. If we can't agree on what actually occured here, then nothing will ever be accomplished. Go re-read the posts and refresh your memory of who cast the first stone. This is what I believe MMS is trying to stop. Viscious, rude, unfounded attacks born out of ignorance and hatred. Let's all agree that this should stop now. I'm not asking you to like me, just stop with the "prey on others" comments. What is wrong with allowing other TL members giving me the benefit of a doubt and allow me to prove to them I have something of value to offer?...especially since there is zero chance that they could be taken advantage of in any way.

Great post, Scott. You hit on a point that is more vital for further discussion than most members here may realize. I don't know anything of these other teachers that you speak of. Why they have left, or are leaving, might have something to do with how they were received. A good trading forum can only survive if there exists the ability to learn. The learning comes from unselfish teachers with no agenda other than to help because they can. I hope others will pick up on this discussion. I personally think it deserves a whole new thread. It's that important.

Although I can't recall any of these personal attacks you speak of, I certainly hope MMS deleted those as well. Actually, now that I think about it, offering to spend many hours of my time helping any TL member for free while vowing to NEVER ask nor accept any payment from any member at any time for anything was pretty mean-spirited and hateful. I apologize, onesmith. That was obviously a very evil offer as anyone can tell and I should have shown more maturity. Just my deep seated meanness I guess...thanks for pointing it out.

MM, I want everyone who reads anything I say to remain highly skeptical. That would hopefully mean they are highly skeptical of others who have not earned their trust. I couldn't agree more. But skepticism is one thing while lying, distorting, insulting and threatening someone whom you don't agree with is another matter. I would jump at the opportunity to "prove" that I have knowledge and effective teaching ability that can help many traders of all experience levels. Unfortunately, proof would either have to produced by you coming to me or me demonstrating my talents here at TL. As of this writing, neither seem likely to happen in the near future. But I'm more than willing if that ever changes. It's all I can do, guys. But, until then why can't we all find a way to remain civil toward each other and try to get along? That's all MMS is trying to accomplish here. Forums in chaos are useless and I think everyone understands that.

I like this thread and I think MMS is doing a superb job. But, curious...what are these Substantial Unresolved issues and how would you propose they be resolved?

There is a big difference between an opinion and an outright lie, Gosu. When you and other members of TL understand the difference, this forum will improve dramatically. I'm glad that you posted this, however. Perhaps it will give SoulTrader a chance to see what I've had to deal with for these past several weeks. There's a serious problem here at TL and my solution is to just leave. Unfortunately, SoulTrader doesn't have that option.

When the participants resort to personal threats, healthy debate no longer exists.

Thanks for starting this thread, Soultrader. I don't hide behind a pseudo-name so most can easily tell that I am also a vendor. You may or may not be aware of the level of personal attacks that I have received here at TL. If you research the history of the posts, I think you can sopt where and when it started. I just never figured out "Why?" When these attacks started and they quickly became relentless. Go read them. SoulTrader, these were not simply comments put forth from healthy skepticism. These were personal. They consisted of lies, distortions, innuendos, statements as facts things that were totally and knowingly incorrect in an apparent effort to slander and there were even threats to harm or destroy my business. The harder I tried to defend myself by stating the facts, the worse it got. In a healthy environment, skeptical members would say, "Hey, the guy has offered to help me increase my bottom line as a trader. I have serious doubts, but he knows this group will crucify him verbally if he fails to do what he says...but he's still willing to try. It's free, why not..." In my experience, that's how normal people react. No vitreol, no hate speech...just, "Hey, show me." The relentless hateful attacks increased and there were times I became angry...frustration can do that. I have apologized to the members if I offended anyone because that was not my intent. My desire to help others trumped my better judgment to leave. All I wanted here was to be given a chance to earn the trust, respect and friendship of the fellow members. But the constant flow of verbal venom made it impossible. I finally did the only thing left to do...permanently leave. My experience here at TL has been a shocking disappointment, to say the least. But perhaps calling attention to the fact that there's a problem here might do some good. No member coming here in good will and faith, should be subjected to threats and verbal abuse based solely on their profession. Otherwise, where does it stop? Since TL does not apparently actually censure this type of rhetoric, you have lost a good member. I have no animosity towards TL or any of it's members. Traders Laboratory is fundamentally a good forum with potential to become even greater. I enjoy reading the articles, for sure. But, it's still generating some nasty press and the threatening emails are increasing. I can no longer promote TL as I have been doing in my daily commentary and webinar presentations when all my referrals see is the vitreol towards me when they come here. I think it gives them the wrong impression of the normal type of TL member. In any case, I would appreciate it if you could "un-member" me from this group since I haven't found the option to do that. Joining TL was a mistake on my part but you don't know unless you try. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to give it a shot. Thanks, Roger Felton

TL Members: It has been a really interesting experience interacting with this group. Perhaps time will prove it to be a good experience if I grow and learn from it. Offending others just because I was offended was really boneheaded on my part and totally against my nature. I completely understand anyone who has strong convictions about anyone involved in this business. I wanted a "fair shake" and I went about getting it all wrong...and for that, I deeply apologize. Our beliefs are so diametrically opposed that there is little hope of finding common ground. I realize that now and that's how life goes sometimes. But I leave here with no animosity whatsoever towards anyone and I truly mean that. I let my desire to help completely dominate my better judgment. Go ahead and chuckle guys...lol...but this will be my last post at TL and I will see if there is any way to "un-member" myself. As you know, his kind of banter has got to stop. This was not the experience I had hope for and I took my disappointment out on some of you. That was wrong and it stops now. Sometimes friendships just weren't meant to be but I do hope that everyone here at TL finds the lasting success that they deserve. Roger

It's a Catch 22. You say, "Prove me wrong", yet give no opportunity for me to do so. It would have been so easy had you reserved judgment and simply logged into the Trading Room and stayed as long as you needed to form a rational opinion...good or bad...but based on actual experience rather than poisoned mindset. You're right, I should have been the "bigger man" and walked away from the beginning. For the record, yes, I was "banned" from Big Mike's. He has an intense and instant dislike for vendors...education vendors in particular...yet that's exactly how he has packaged himself. He "educates" and he charges a fee to get it. Perhaps it's a professional jealousy issue, I don't know. I communicated to someone in a totally private email that Big Mike was not, in my opinion and professional experience, a successful trader although he likes to present himself to his minions as a trading expert. I had strong evidence of such but should have kept it to myself, I suppose. Word got back to "Da Big Dog", as he calls himself, and he banned me. So be it...good forum though and I had a lot of followers there. But, like you and many here at TL, I can't stand phonies. They give this industry a real black eye. They make it impossible for the few good eggs to hold their head up when they say they are trading educators/mentors, etc.. When an industry is made up of 90%+ con artists and slick marketers, everybody looks bad. Kinda like attorneys, siding salesmen and used car dealers. Seems the ones who market the heaviest are the worst ones to deal with. I would have loved to have watched Big Mike spend a couple of hours proving to the world that he was the trading guru he pretended to be. Turn on the camera and do what I do everyday...take live trades in the live market...simulation or real account is fine either way. It was one time when I wished I was wrong. I would have apologized profusely. Let me watch someone's trade selection and trade management and I can spot a pro in no time. Big Mike will never make that happen but he will continue to dole out contradictory advice to his struggling members doing more harm than good. But it's his show, not mine and it's all water under the bridge.

No problem, MM...we're on. Now the ball is in your court to show me this robot autotrader system that runs totally unattended, requires no periodic tweaking, and wins 87% of it's trades with no more than a 2% account drawdown. This holy grail system must have at least a 2 year performance history and have a guarantee of similiar performance going forward...as previously agreed. I wlll also agree to allow you to double the purchase price of this autotrader system if you so choose because, at 1 mil, it's a steal. I am so pleased that you have accepted. Please send me the appropriate documentation and guarantee and we can seal the deal. You're a peach!

This is part of my last post to SIUYA: "....Please give me your contact info in a PM and we can get started. I'll be finishing a training course for a small group tomorrow so we can hit the ground running as early as next week. Thanks for always being civil and I look forward to working with you as a mentor and as a friend...." There has been no contact...no PM...no interest. Sorry, I can't force anyone to accept my help so don't hold your breath waiting for his feedback. I give up.

You are absolutely correct. I did not put my best foot forward. I let the flood of personal attacks get to me when I should have immediately recognized the futility of trying to defend against them. Very bad judgment on my part.

I'm deeply sorry Corey but I have decided to completely pull out of this entire forum altogether. I have offered to allow complete and unlimited access to the FT Trading Room and I have offered to teach and closely mentor any TL member for a period of one week. I can greatly improve nearly any trader's performance if given a fair shot. I would accept NO monetary payment from anyone here but only requested their honest assessment if anyone asked. I had expected some TL members to take advantage of the offers in a win/win deal. But instead I was immediately attacked, insulted, lied about and slandered in a constant bombardment of vitreol. Read the threads for yourself. I don't know anything about you Corey but, if you are like 99.9% of the traders I have experienced here at TL, I can't help you. I have no choice but to abandon all efforts to make friends and contribute to the forum and just move on. If you have any question why I have chosen to do this, just watch the tone of the posts that will immediately follow this post. It never fails.

The ignorance in this forum is astounding. I said my goal was to average $1000 plus... No one can possibly hit an exact target goal every day. You're a trader, aren't you? You can't wrap your brain around that? I also said that some days I miss my goal...market aren't always great. Some days I lose a little. And then there are days when I greatly exceed my goal. A goal is a level I try to achieve but it's not necessarily a stopping point. Many days the trades just keep firing and working all day long and I'd be an idiot to stop trading. My 2-year average beats my minimum goal level...so what? By what measure of logic to you figure that, because I teach and trade in sim for 3 hours a day, that I therefore cannot possibly have time to trade my live account? Ridiculous nonsense and so typical of the vile tactics you guys constantly post here. I no longer have the stomach for this anymore. Why am I trying to explain something this elementary to you? You are one of the many here who will twist everything I say into something else. As fact twisters, you guys win the trophy every time. And it will never ever change.....

No, SIUYA, it does not mean that. So far, to my knowledge, you have never asked me for my help. Perhaps you asked in another thread that I left in frustration. Although I am leaving this incredibly negative forum, I will help anyone who asks in friendship for my professional assistance. As I said before, and many times in the past, I welcome and encourage skeptics. If there is no hatred towards me personally, then I would heartily welcome the opportunity to help you. It's what I came here to try to do. Please stay highly skeptical (I'm sure you will) and question everything I teach you. Although I am confident I can give your trading results a big boost, rest assured that I will never ask you for a dime in exchange. Just trader helping trader, ok? Please give me your contact info in a PM and we can get started. I'll be finishing a training course for a small group tomorrow so we can hit the ground running as early as next week. Thanks for always being civil and I look forward to working with you as a mentor and as a friend.

The stats are kept through the diligent efforts of my students, not by me. So we're clear, I do not make $1000 every day. Sometimes I make $2,000 and occasionally $3,000. But there are days I fall short. And some days I'm negative but usually not by much. So, over the past 2+ years in my calls and trades taken in full view of the room participants, my daily average is somewhere between $1100 and $1200 mostly trading CL, GC and the 6E. My plan was to come here to TL and share a lot of what I do with the group while building friendship and acceptance among my peers. You guys have no clue what I can do or the extent I was willing to go. I think I could have changed a lot of negative minds about me in a training webinar or two. Got gang tackled and never made it out of my own end zone. Never had a chance. There was never any hidden agenda as has been put forth by several of you. Perhaps my biggest blunder here was assuming that anyone here needed my help. Apparently not and I should never have made that assumption. I must admit that the "welcome wagon" was quite overwhelming here and I wasn't prepared for it. The rules seem to be that others can say any nasty untrue remark about me they can think of but I can't respond with the true facts or defend myself. I probably handled it badly and should have packed up my candlesticks and just moved on to a more suitable forum. Been way ahead. Live and learn.

My website has been thoroughly inspected by the NFA, a former attorney for the CFTC plus the legal departments of Mirus, AMP, Global Futures, TradeStation and many others. If you have managed to find something they overlooked, please let me know and it will be immediately removed. It would be greatly appreciated. This is how gentlemen behave. The last time I checked there were no gurarantees or promises made anywhere on my site...unlike most of the other websites I have seen. But, I will give you the benefit of a doubt and allow you to educate me...more consideration, by the way, than any you ever gave me.

Hey, I didn't come here and start this, you guys did. Go back and read the post history. I think it began with JoshDance. I'd bet that if I had simply hid behind a phony name like you guys do and made the same contributing posts as before, none of these personal attacks would have ever happened. It was only because I used my real name and didn't try to hide in the shadows and didn't conceal that I was a vendor that this stuff started. I'm a trading mentor and a professional trader. I'm very good at both and I don't have to hide that from anyone. I never intentionally insulted anyone, I simply responded to viscious personal attacks...and you know it. It's sad...we might have actually been friends if I were just a trader. If I believed it to be impossible for anyone to make $1000 a day trading only 2 contracts and someone offered to prove it can by inviting me to come watch it happen, I'd get off my lazy duff and go take a look. But not you guys. Your mind is made up. You ask for proof and won't bother to even try to give me a chance. Maybe it's more fun to try to destroy my reputation with false accusations and snide remarks. If it can't be done then you need to tell the large group of traders who watch me do it practically every day. I not only do it, I teach it. Life is hell when it's lived in a hole. I've tried as hard as I know how to correct the misstatements that happen here constantly. But there's just no reasoning with this group. Did I get angry? Sure, at times. I think anybody would but I'm disappointed in myself for getting down to the mean-spirited level of this bunch. A really dumb waste of time and energy for sure but at least I didn't stoop to making things up in order to damage anyone or their business. My fault...should have left a long time ago when I first realized that there were no friends to be found here. Well, I'm toast. I give up. Ya'll win. You guys go ahead and trash me and pack this thread with all the manufactured "facts" you want. I've got a lot more productive things to do with my time so let's get out of each other's hair. If I unjustly offended or insulted anyone here, I sincerely apologize. It was not my intent or my nature.