bobcollett

Hi Larry, If you have to wait 5 years, who's paying the rent? regards bobc

Sorry Patuca I thought you were predicting a plunge in Gold. Now I read it was the S & P . :doh: Have you finished with that S&P plunge? All members.... do not short the S & P. The Bond market has collapsed and the money has to go somewhere. And the Bond market is 100 times (guess) bigger than the S & P, so thats a lot of money looking for a home. And that will weaken GOLD. Tomorrow the Lunar cycle starts turning positive. Time to get back in ?????? All those traders who stayed short in Gold ..... you are better traders than me. I must pay attention, I must pay attention, I must pa...............................:crap: regards bobc

Hi Patuca We were all short long before you told us about the plunge which I dont remember you ever telling us in the first place. Now I have no Gold position ,:missy: so I would welcome your prediction, and if its a good prediction , and I make some money, then I will chip in for an engine for your cigerette boat;) regards bobc

Dear M.A. You've got a nice eye. regards bobc

Dear Patuca I can see you are relaxed. Nobody on TL "dislikes " you . :roll eyes: But you have to start being nice . kind regards bobc

I'm in a jolly mood..... I've got a plan. I took my stock broker friend's cash on the golf course this morning.And he is a 2 handicap... good. So he told me I was an idiot for looking at Astro trading ... Horses for courses... Heres how I read the coming week. Interest rates are rising and QE3 ending has spooked the big boys. The sell off has started.........S & P down on Friday Maybe even a crash on Tuesday/ Wednesday And its FULL MOON .... markets weaken So I will short my ALSI 40 and look for a 5 % drop. That applies to the DOW as well. And if stocks fall , Gold will rise. But the Gold trend is down so I will sit out next week unless the price can close above the short term MA.... thats about 1306.Thats for a quck BUY .. I remain a gold bear. And to crown it all, Mercury goes retrograde on Wednesday. Backup your computer ,fill your car with petrol and make sure all communications are clear. Prepare for BAD times. Gold traders tighten stops . regards bobc PS. Relax Patuca

Hi sergie Why has trend following stopped making money? regards bobc

When the Dow falls for 6 days in a row, then Gold will turn UP. I have closed all my shorts..... very nice profit. Looking at buying a new horse. And I am sure, I have left some money on the table. Time to take a break: 2c: Tomorrow is the solstice Dont be greedy regards bobc

Dear Mr Grabinski Thats a very good question!!! I will start with my trading plan . Does it allow me to be flexible.? Just a little bit, and that little bit costs me money in the long run. Discipline means I stick to my plan.Come hell or high water. I am currently SHORT Gold with a new stop at 1396. Gold is going sideways and can easily break out UP .And I am stoped out And I have that GUT feeling its going to do just that. Why give away 6 points? Because my plan says the trend is down and it stays down unless it closes above 1422. My target is 1356 . So being flexible and discipline dont fit. But what happens if something big happens in the market, like China states it is swapping Dollars for Gold. That will change the trend. My 1356 is forgotten and I will close my short position and go long. So I must be flexible .And Gold off course drops to 1356 :crap: And thats why my race horses are eating grass and not oats. Am I trading badly? I cant answer your question kind regards bobc

Wide awake , hey Sun Trader.!!!! kind regards bobc

Hi Sergio, I see you come from Greece. Smart people , the Greeks.All that bail out money and when they default in 3 years time, they'll get some more. Do you trade for a living ? kind regards bobc

Dear Mr. Grabowski, If you can pay the rent from 10 pips a day, by all means stake a break. But you dont make a profit every day, so you will have to work longer on the "good "days . And I define "good"days as identifying a trend, and staying with that trend until it changes. And when trading Forex, the trend usually lasts a short while.....10 pips So you must take a bigger position to overcome the short trend. You cant make a living trading forex intra day..... unless you have a big account. kind regards bobc PS This post will bring the 800lb gorillas out of the cage.

Hi Sun Trader Have you back tested this Yen/Gold correlation to see if it has worked before? regards bobc

Hi sergso I think this adaptive system costs $5000. Thats excessive You can buy a book "Trend Following " by Michael Covel for about $20 that will do the job. regards bobc

Hi SunTrader, I know I'm a poor writer, but I cant be that bad. I am SHORT. There is no uptrend or sideways movement until I am stopped out at 1423. Then I will start again. And tomorrow morning, if Asia Gold closes down , I will add 2 more contracts.....SHORT And I post my trades IN ADVANCE. MORE.... When Gold falls , all marginal mines will fall faster than the majors. So I will also short Harmony. Thats a stock in my market . SELL 1000 Harmony at 10minutes after the OPEN for R2 a share profit. regards bobc PS I dont make more money by declaring my trades in advance. I crystalize my thinking. I force myself to find all the pros and cons. I try to leave price action untill last, because thats the confuser. It works.

Dear kuokam Relax!!! You gave your view. SunTrader gave his view. I also find SunTraders posts rather abrasive ,but thats his style and I dont think he is being personal. NOW, Friday was a major turn in the market, and it turned DOWN. You should be SHORT a few contracts, with a stop at 1423. Only BUY above 1423 for a short term trade. Only BUY above 1500 for an investment. And be careful of the dollar This weekends reports show investers bailing out of emerging markets and back into US Bonds. That means they have to BUY dollars to make the trade.So I dont think the dollar will weaken. But as you rightly comment, its not certain. And most important....... when the S & P goes up , Gold goes down Some more... India has increased their duty on Gold to reduce demand and help their Balance of payments.There is still huge demand for Gold , but until Paper Gold has sold off ,the trend is down.So the "edge "is to watch the Gold ETF's and see if they are getting smaller. Here in South Africa , they are still the same size ,so I wonder if my theory is correct. Kind regards bobc PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

Hi GlassOnion, Can you pay the rent with 10 pips a day? If you can , then fine , take a break. I cant. kind regards bobc

Hi Siuya Well I guess if you think receiving dollars when you bought gold is legal, never mind moral., what can I say. To each his own....... regards bobc

Dear Jimbo I am sorry ... I apoligize for insensitive referals to you. I hate it when people make stupid remarks about me. So trying to be smart at your expense is inexcusable. kind regards bobc

THE BIG GOLD SCAM As background please read the link posted by SIUYA, on his post # 423 . The Comex EFT gold fund admits it has only enough Gold to cover 20% of redemptions. So somewhere down the line they sold the balance , but more than likely , they NEVER bought in the first place. Now lets take a nice little retail investor. I'll call him Jimbo because hes a big gold bull. Every month he buys some more Paper Gold. He starts at $1320 and continues to $1800. It was a great investment while it lasted. His average price is $1560 (just a guess) The price is now back to $1375 (yesterdays close) His wife says he's a idiot. Lots of their savings down the drain. "Kindly go to the Comex and close the account. Get back what you can ." And off course,Comex pay him in dollars. So although in some cases he paid $1800 , he got back $1375 HELLO! Did the Comex make a profit? They never bought the gold in the first place. They hedged thier position while Gold was rising. They did nothing while Gold was falling. They made a nice profit out of Jimbo because they settled in dollars. They also know most investors dont want to take home a big gold bar. Dollars are fine. And if this is what an honest crowd are doing, imagine what a bunch of crooks like Goldman and Barclays are doing.Probably sold their own Gold fund short. And I can extend this play to Mutual Funds Petuca is right... BIG SCAM regards bobc PS. SIUYA. Hi. I 've got this nice big bridge in Brooklyn FOR SALE.

Hi SIUYA Thank you for a comprehensive answer rather than some of the "One Liners" I get. I dont quite agree with your musical chairs analogy I think there is more to the story. At the end of the "day" ,I am trying to see a change in trend, so you alternative view is welcome. kind regards bobc

Hi SIUYA Not quite sure what you are getting at? What have the banks short selling ban got to do with paper Gold? What do you think has caused this BIG GOLD BEAR MARKET? kind regards bobc

Is this feasable? The major EFT Gold Fund holders, the likes of Soros etc, have decided that their paper gold is not safe. It might not even exist!!. They would like to see the real Macoy in the safe. So they are selling their paper and buying back the physical. Hence the the big sell off and at the same time a physical shortage. regards bobc

Heres an idea for Silver traders Every day in this Down cycle Silver opens GAP DOWN , and then closes the gap over the course of the day You can sell the close and buy it back next day at the open. Bit risky for me. More important,the first day there is no opening gap, get ready to close your shorts. This is my own idea so dont bet your house on it........!!! And for those of you swapping your GOLD for Silver.... dead man walking. regards bobc

I agree with Patuca on the manipulation of the markets. Have a look at the volume on the attached chart For years volume was a number which suddenly changed when Germany asked New York for their physical gold to be returned .And that hugh volume is still there. Who is buying so much and who is selling MORE.? I accept I will eventually be screwed, but in the mean time I am making money. The trend is DOWN. I can guess some support at about 1375. (See chart) Technically the price is opening high and closing low. (See chart) So we dont need to guess when the change in trend happens. A nice Doji would be great , otherwise an open low and a close high. ROCKET SCIENCE Fundamentally,until we see a change in interest rates, which means QE has ended, Equities are UP. And Japan has another year of QE ahead.!!!!!!!!!! So my previous post stating an inverse correlation between Gold and Equities remains.(Unproven) Gold will go lower while equities rise. Moral of the story....please wait a bit before you buy Patuca. kind regards bobc