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  1. Hi Folks, This thread is created to discuss the expected value of gold 5 years down the line. I have got a very interesting questing on my mind so I have decided to share the same with you with the help TL. Will gold prices double five years from now ? What do you think ? Why? Shouldn't stocks be flying? Shouldn't gold be closing over $1,800...and on its way to the moon? This was on the day after the Fed announced recently the biggest program of money-printing ever undertaken by any government in history. Forty billion dollars per month. Maybe forever. Or at least until the presidential election. If it continues, that's $480 billion per year. The Federal Reserve website shows current assets of $2.8 trillion. Add nearly $500 billion per year...and it will take scarcely 5 years to double the Fed's assets, which are the foundation of America's money supply. So far, gold has tracked the increase in Fed assets. Broadly, both doubled over the last five years. Does this mean the price of gold will double five years from now?
  2. Folks are invited to discuss about the Japanese economy, their currency and their relationship. I recently came to know that Japan is back in the news because of its Quantitative easing and depreciating currency. Will Quantitative Easing Be Japan's Savior ? Lets discuss . Japan is the fourth-largest economy in the world. Issue - The country remains in a deflationary environment due to a variety of factors. Employment is down, the population is aging, the Yen (Japan’s currency) is weakening, and there is very little immigration into the country. Japan’s New Idea to tackle the issue The new idea is not new at all. More quantitative easing, but this time on a massive scale. The program, recently announced by the new governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, is for a cash infusion of $1.4 trillion by the end of 2014. The hope is that this new round of QE will transform the economy from a deflationary environment to one of 2% inflation. Japan’s version of quantitative easing is 60% larger than the United States. But will it work? Much like in the United States, the armchair politicians and economists are hard at work debating the issue. Some believe that previous quantitative easing proved fruitless so there is no reason to believe that it will work this time. Even if it does work, Japan will be left with even more public debt. Its debt load is currently 214% of GDP with a quarter of the country’s budget going to service that debt. If this round of QE does create inflation, interest rates will rise. Others are supportive of the plan. The IMF’s Christine Lagarde said that the newly announced plan was a step in the right direction. Others applauded the effort as a big solution to a big problem. Impact on Currency Forecasts call for the Yen to continue weakening to 105 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2013 and 110 in 2014. Market Impact Whether or not QE in the United States aided in the economic recovery will likely be a debate that lasts for decades, but nobody argues that the markets have seen considerable appreciation since the program was announced. Regardless of the reason behind the market rally, investors are betting that Japan’s markets will see the same effect. Actions to be Taken If this new round of QE does for Japanese markets what it has done for U.S. markets, a bullish position on the Japanese economy through equity, bond, or total market ETFs may be warranted. Currency traders may try to take advantage of the weakening Yen in the Forex market. However, investing in international markets is difficult for retail investors due to the relative lack of information available.
  3. You know, I've been looking at the price of oil for a while now and thinking it's a problem for "the recovery". The questions you have to ask yourself are 1- Is the price of oil a good reflection of dwindling global resources? 2- Is the price of oil reflective of the diminishing value of the currency it's priced in? 3- Can the global economy currently rebound with a high value of oil? 4- What can central bankers do about it and would they do it anyway? The spike which saw values top out in mid '08 at just shy of $150 per barrel was blamed at the time on speculation. But is that all it is? I mean just look at the recent Libor revelations. It's a nailed on certainty that there is a whole heap more corruption in the world. People tend to do what they feel they can get away with or won't be pulled up on and then convince themselves it's morally justafiable. Well maybe some people are happy to do wrong in fairness. But the point is, this is human nature. Not acceptable in a civilized society. Don't mistake what I'm saying. So you have to assume there is something going on behind the scenes to artificially alter fair price. Look at what happened when everyone thought the apocalpyse was nigh. We hit a low of circa $30 per barrel only 6 months after being nearly $150!! What ever your opinion on why/if we have a high oil price, I'd be interested to hear it. I'd also really like to know whether anyone else believes that the high price of oil specifically is really hindering any economic recovery. I think it really, really is. Especially where small business is concerned. But that is really just opinion. I feel we need to drop back to somewhere in the region of $50 and hold for a while in order to really "stimulate" the global economy. But can that happen with the Federal Reserve willing to dilute the value of the dollar at any hint of poor data? It's funny how Europe is being pointed out as having an inadequate system when really isn't the entire system currently flawed??
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