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thalestrader

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by thalestrader

  1. Posted

    These days I simply accept that the markets should be played by those who have:

     

    a) The capital to trade through market activity (trend/range)

    b) A strategy that delivers a positive expectation (edge/opportunity)

    c) No need of the money (other means of subsistence independent of trading)

     

    That is not a bad set of assumptions, Ingot54. I think your third assumption might be the most important for a new trader. I do wish you well.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  2. Posted

    Sadly most will not...Apologies, I am in a particularly sceptical mood today....

     

    My friend, Blowfish, your skepticism is well founded. Most will indeed fail, and from the ranks of the failed often rise the successful (or not) vendor, whether internet marketer or direct marketer.

     

    I was just going through two weeks worth of mail, and I have 17 (yes, seventeen) pieces of rather expensive marketing material from the likes of Chuck Hughes, Don Fishbeck, Vector Vest, something called the MIPS system, and a dozen others touting some new trading system or pumping some new mining or energy pennystock. I would bet that most of those sending these out to me started as an aspiring trader, struggled, failed, and ended up as a supplier of this, that, and the other to other (equally unsuccessful) aspiring traders.

     

    Good to see you're still here. TL has become all but unrecognizable to me some days.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  3. Posted

    Have you tried being a little creative with your application? That's what 90% of the folks holding trading accounts do. Or at least that's what they did when I was a broker. I can't imagine that anything has changed other than that maybe now you need to sign 27 risk disclosures instead of just the one you had to sign 17 years ago.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  4. Posted

    From me a while back ...

     

    I did plunk down a fair amount on Ablesys software, which is basically the same thing, only worse. Of all the junk I bought, Ablesys is without a doubt the junkiest product and the worst managed, least customer oriented company of the bunch. I still feel my blood pressure rise whenever I see them mentioned or run across their ubiquitous advertising. I should have realized that any company that needed to spend on advertising what Ablesys needs to do to maintain sales has got to be a junk

     

    If you already bought, try to get your money back. If you did not yet buy ... don't.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  5. Posted

    The moment my account shows a net loss, I'm going back to sim. I was up over 7.5R at one point. This is ridiculous. I was obviously on a lucky streak that has been struck. I was convinced that maybe I was getting somewhere. Obviously I was wrong. I am so demoralized right now. I cannot believe after all this time I am still as bad as I am. I guess I'm just not cut out for it. I wonder what it will take for me to finally throw in the towel.

     

     

     

    attachment.php?attachmentid=24962&stc=1&d=1308617448

     

    You signed up here less than two years ago. And if I recall, you were not yet trading, at least not regularly. And here you are, a mere nineteen months later, and you are wondering aloud about throwing in the towel. You have been more dedicated than many to learning this craft. Do you have any idea how long I fumbled along? Too long. But I do not regret taking too long one little bit.

     

    Cory, even when you finally have "gotten it," and you think you are "Joe Pro Hot Shot Trader," guess what? You are going to go into a draw down. Nothing will go your way. You will doubt that you should be doing this. You will be frustrated, angry, and despondent. Eventually, you will accept the fact that you are human, and because of that, you will make mistakes. Your discipline will fail you, and the market will eat you alive. But you will recognize the problem quickly, and correct it even more quickly.

     

    You are doing fine. Take a deep breath, take a day or two to watch your charts if you feel you must, but do take notes, jot down entries, stops, etc. Then get back on your horse. If you are really feeling frustrated, then back away from the day trading for a while and try to play for some bigger swings, perhaps trading from the four hour or daily time.

     

    At any rate, Cory, as you can see from the responses that you have received here, many are still watching this thread, which means they are primarily watching you. And all of those posting in response to you over the last few days are watching and rooting for you, and not watching and waiting for a train wreck. I'm sure those folks are out there too. Don't given them what they are hoping for - you are a hard worker, and your work is being rewarded, even at moments like these where you feel you have merely spun your wheels while stuck in a wallow of delusion. You are making progress toward your goal. You have moved forward.

     

    So take a deep breath. You are doing fine. You are not the only person who has had to struggle to reach trading consistency. You are not alone.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

    5aa710826071f_HanginthereCory1.jpg.293695f9d75b902aee8d76cc1a14ec61.jpg

  7. Posted

    Hi Folks,

     

    I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time...

     

    So the new management traded the old thread in for a dog ...

     

    Well, she was a fine and good thread. I thank all of you who helped make her so.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  9. Posted

    QE2 will likely not end in June. Bernanke & Co. only stated an intention to purchase 600B by June - he never said 600B was the limit, or that June would be the end.

     

    The real problem is that high gas prices are now pinching consumer and small business spending. The last recession, in my opinion, was the result of $3-$4 gasoline, and not the financial banking crisis. The financial crisis would have been averted or at least delayed had the consumer not been beaten by the need to divert discretionary dollars into Energy company coffers. My guess is that the market will top sometime between September-February, with another full-blown recession to follow.

     

    However, for now, we are in a Bull market, and I will trade it accordingly until such time as price indicates the trend has changed from bull to bear.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  12. Posted

    ... but it has happened so many times I am learning to just take it as part of the game.

     

    Next!

     

    If you have a 1R 1st PT and a -1R initial stop, and if the above scenario happens with high frequency, perhaps you ought to consider changing your plan so that you do not move your stop to BE after PT 1, assuming you are taking half at a 1R PT1 and leaving half for a 1+R PT2.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  13. Posted

    Thalestrader,

    I find your comment insulting...

     

    Then you need to work on yourself.

     

    If every post was of equal value to any other, then all posts should be equally recommended, i.e. in TL parlance, "thanked." This is manifestly not the case.

     

    In every area of human activity, trading included, a few inexorably rise above the many. Every science, art, industry, sport etc has amongst its many participant a few Titans.

     

    Yes, Ford Motor Company could not produce a car without the many folks along the assembly line; but to thus conclude that the contribution to the success of the enterprise by the worker attaching the license plate holder to the front bumper is on the same level as Henry Ford himself would be a distortion of the nature of things; for without Henry Ford, the many on the assembly line would not be so employed. The internet is littered with trading forums that withered on the vine without quality input from some to make it worth the effort of the many to show up and participate.

     

    For every million dollar producer in the brokerage house, there are hundreds of stockbrokers struggling to generate six-figures in commissions and fees, forget about a six figure income for themselves. Ask the sales manager whether he considers the contribution of his million dollar producer to be equal to that of the fifty thousand dollars pulled in by his lowliest new registered rep.

     

    As human beings we are each equal in dignity and rights. But with respect to abilities and knowledge, especially specialized knowledge and skills, we are "all over the map." Trust me - if you needed emergency brain surgery, you would not want me to be the one performing it on you. And I would not be insulted one iota.

     

    I am no preacher. I haven't the talent for it. Though I was fortunate to have grown up in a church where two of the most talented preachers I have had the good fortune to hear presided for a time. Would my current church's current preached have 1/10th the talent of either of those two, he would be a hundredfold improved. While I haven't the talent for it, I am able to recognize and acknowledge its possession (or lack thereof) by others.

     

    To claim that one is a better doctor, teacher, poet, painter, auto mechanic, computer programmer, cook, web designer, General, baseball player, quarterback, or trader than another is simply recognizing the way things are - it is the nature of things, at least human things, that some excel while some struggle, while the rest of us find ourselves scattered somewhere in between.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  15. Posted

    Seems like there are more traders that agree that fib level are on every single bar on the chart.

     

    Most traders lose most of the time ... why align your thinking with the majority?

     

    Fibonacci tools are meant to be aplied to swings, not bars. That is, fib's need to be struck from swing lows and swing highs, not from random levels defined by a discreet unit of time, range, number of tick, etc.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  16. Posted

    Hi Thales,

    I was referred to your thread here by a friend. I finished reading it from start to finish. I want to thank you for your contribution here. Your thoughts on money management and trade entry techniques have been very helpful to me. This has been the best thread I've read anywhere!!!

     

    Are you active posting on another thread or on your blog now?

     

    JW

     

    I'm happy that you found it to be of value - a lot of good folks made a lot good contributions to this thread.

     

    I'm not actively posting anything anywhere right now - I needed a break from the internet. Currently, I am an occasional lurker, but I will be back - eventually.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales, friend of Kiwi

  19. Posted

    Thales,

     

    When I thought about it last time, I thought it might make sense if we all had a common broker and we gave them permission to audit the accounts and post the results and offer a prize. You have to figure that they would love to have a bunch of cowboys trying to achieve riches while they get paid commissions. But, if we are not going to be trading the same type of instruments, then it limits the number of brokers we can use to only a few that broker all types of instruments.

     

    MM

     

    I have been wanting to give openecry a try for futures, as their all-in commission price is extremely competitive and I like what I have seen of the data flowing through the OEC Trader Demo. If I'm not mistaken, OEC now allows for trading futures, equities, and forex through one account (you have to fill out the forms for the markets you wish to trade - so if you wish to trade all three, you need to fill three apps). Of course, my interest in OEC is to trade futures only, so I may be mistaken. I know Brownie and a good number of other TL regulars use OEC and have been happy with them. I was intending to fund a 20-25k account with OEC in the near future. Would you be amenable to OEC? If so, I'll send a PM to MMS and to Brownie and we can see if we can get them interested in auditing accounts and providing weekly updates to a thread here at TL.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  20. Posted

    ...As far as the contest, I can do it now, but in a few months I may be permanently taking on additional responsibilities which come with both a large capital outlay and a larger amount of debt. If I do that, then it would be a mistake to spend a day in front of a screen. So, if I begin, I may not be able to finish if I end up acquiring that business.

     

    MM

     

    No problem, MM, I understand completely. As it is, if we were to commence a contest, my trading will be mostly swing/position trades rather than day trades as my non-trading responsibilities remain at a level that preclude me from day trading regularly.

     

    How do you propose to structure the contest? Perhaps, if you and any other interested parties would be amenable to it, MadMarketScientist would like to get involved and make it an official TL event.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  21. Posted

    Theory versus practice. when you lose, any amount is too much. A smaller amount is better than a small amount. I lose more trades than I win so smaller is better.

     

    In both theory and in practice, losing more trades than you win is only a problem if your losses are the same size as or greater than you wins. I would assume that for the discussion to make sense at all we were talking about a system whereby profits exceeded losses on a net basis even if losses exceed wins on a percent of opportunity basis. Of course, if your system is a net loser, then, by all means, lose it as slowly as you'd like, right MM?

     

    By the way, have you given any more thought to the little trading contest you suggested back in The Race thread? I'd like to hear how you'd like to structure it if you are still interested.

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  22. Posted · Edited by thalestrader

    "The rules of conduct, the maxims of action, and the tactical instincts that serve to gain small victories may always be expanded into the winning of great ones with suitable opportunity; because in human affairs the sources of success are ever to be found in the fountains of quick resolve and swift stroke; and it seems to be a law inflexible and inexorable that he who will not risk cannot win." John Paul Jones, letter to Vice Admiral Kersaint

     

     

     

    Look at the similarity between what John Paul Jones says above and Blowfish's post #6 in this thread. If you can recognize the common themes, and then if you take Blowfish's advice and learn how to calculate risk of ruin, you will likely find that the answer to the question of what the appropriate percent of capital to risk risk per trade will be a good bit higher than MightyMouse's .2% but far far less than "all you deposit."

     

    As John Paul Jones said, risk nothing and you cannot win. Likewise, if you risk it all and lose, you likewise cannot win. Risk the right amount, however, and your small victories should each be greater than your smaller losses, and occasionally a small victory will run into a great one.

     

    Risk too much, you will be ruined. Risk too little, and your small victories will never have the opportunity to expand into the occasional (and necessary) great ones. Risk the right amount and trade with discipline, and you will be succeed beyond that which most believe possible.

     

     

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

  23. Posted

    The end of the month looms large for those still wishing to enter a guess as to where oh where might the market be by year end. You risk nothing other than an incorrect guess and the otential reward is $1000. Now I know some of you don't even have 1K left in your trading accounts ... so why not do a little revenge trading right here and try to get it back via the TL Contest?

     

    Best Wishes,

     

    Thales

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