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thalestrader
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Posts posted by thalestrader
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...So you see, I don't feel I'm trading with no regard for S/R...maybe I'm just treating it wrong.I guess I should have gone short once price actually did test the level...I guess I just didn't see a clear good entry. I've basically restricted myself to medium-to-large 123's, but your advice was good and something I've copied and need to keep in mind...because even on the short I took, I could have done much better had I shorted higher up, closer to the level of resistance, rather than so much lower off the larger "123" I took:
I see the second push that actually tagged resistance as the better spot to start looking for a 123 type entry, but I do have the benefit of looking at it in hindsight, and as you know, these things are always clear in hindsight.
Yes, I think that if you locate a break up or break down accompanied by a clear 123, and you want in, then rather than chase the trade, let the trade come back to you, and add a pullback to the breakout point to your repertoire. Otherwise, I fear that you will continue to get chopped to death without anything other than your frustration to show for it.
Also, I know I recommended in the past that you perhaps put day trading on hold, and rather than being glued to a 15 minute chart, you give straight S/R trading a try, using 60, 240, and daily charts, or perhaps a range bar chart (I use 13R and 34R for the 6E). Look for areas of S/R where significant fib levels coincide.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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So I guess I'm basically just lost...so now I ask...what do you think of that trade?I do not know if you had noticed, but here is where I posted what I would have used as a short entry:
I'll not bother with an updated chart (too many steps to attach a chart, you know) ... but a quick look at this would have me saying to try a short below 110.30 and a stop above 111.05.And if you click back to that quote, you can then click back to the chart I had posted from that night. Initially, I saw a 123 with an entry level of 110.14 +/-, but then the EURJPY rallied to a new high a tick or two above 111.00, and the subsequent price action set up a 123 with a revised entry level of 110.30 +/- ... that is where I had presumed you had entered. It was only after you posted that moving your stop loss saved you from a full 1R loss that I took a close look at your chart and saw your entry.
Here is what I think:
1) You missed the real initial 123 entry into that downswing, which I posted above, and you were looking for a place to get in. But in doing so, you simply looked for a 123 of any degree, and at any place.
2) Also, you seems to be trading without any real awareness of S/R considerations. Do yourslef a favor, and strike a fib retracement tool from the 111.01 +/- high to the 109.29 +/- low. Tell me if you find a level where a significant fib level coincides with a significant actual price level where one might reasonably expect a test as resistance. If you find one, then that should have been you entry area. You could have watched closely for a small degree 123-like price movement to get you in, or you could have watched closely, shorted on the first hint of price being rejected at that level, with a tight stop above that level.
Do you see the level to which I am alluding? If so, I want to see your chart showing at least a scribble or two showing me that you understand what I just said.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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...Had I not moved my stop and let it run, it would have eventually taken me out for a full 1R loss, rather than the -0.3R I took...but yes I know this is just one example...I did not look closely at your chart before I posted. I thought your entry was higher.
What do you think of that trade?
Best Wishes,
Thales
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UPDATE: Stop moved down...FINAL UPDATE: Moved stop down again slightly and was taken out.
We're back to that again, are we?
Best Wishes,
Thales
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... I'd be looking to sell below 110.14, with a stop above 110.77, and I'd be willing to let this ride to a 300 tick profit or take my loss.I'll not bother with an updated chart (too many steps to attach a chart, you know) ... but a quick look at this would have me saying to try a short below 110.30 and a stop above 111.05.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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It looks like profit target 2 would have filled now...I should have used THAT for my sole profit target!
Heard from my old friend Blowfish today, and it has me pining away for old times.
So, for old time's sake, here it goes ... Perhaps a second chance ... maybe for a sleigh ride all the way to 107.25? 105? I'd be looking to sell below 110.14, with a stop above 110.77, and I'd be willing to let this ride to a 300 tick profit or take my loss.
And what happened to the little paper clip icon that made adding attachemnts so easy? Now I have to click on "manage attachments" to upload a file? MMS, if it ain't broke, please don't fix it.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Hi. I'm a former financial advisor/planner for A.G. Edwards and LPL. Recently retired and am interested in finding out if I can adapt my old fundamental value philosophy to a value/momentum philosophy. I'm not interested in day trading but would like to shorten my holding periods by focusing on stocks that have intrinsic value and have begun to exhibit changes in momentum. I am primarily a "long" investor but would also like to learn more about trading in down markets too.I would suggest that Nicolas Darvas's How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market and William O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks, and in that order, would be two great books with which to start. Both can be thought of as value/momentum traders. Both look for strong technical (momentum) action by the stocks of fundamentally strong companies.
If you are primarily a long investor, I would also sugest that you remain so until you become more comfortable with a "trading" as opposed to a "buy and hold forever" type strategy. This means you want to be in cash during a down market, rather than short, and only be long when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Of course, that is somewhat easier said than done, so again, I suggest you read those two books.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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... I think I may allow an exception to letting all the trades run...if there's a legitimate stop-and-reverse, I'll allow myself to do that. That's far from micromanaging a stop, anyhow.Indeed. Remember, what might appear to be a 123 can actually prove to be an ABC correction, as was the case here. Your stop on the anticipated 123 reversal becomes your entry on an ABC double bottom continuation type trade.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Still trading Bund Futurehttp://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=25169&stc=1&d=1310026239
Great to see you, Marko. I hope you and yours are doing well.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Thanks Thales -- I suppose we might say it broke the top of the zone, but found support toward the bottom of the zone in this case?I would just say that it tested support, and support held. Had it pierced the lower limit of that support (zone), then we'd have had a break, and if that break was quickly reversed, we'd have a 2B (though I like 2B's better when they occur at a swing high or swing low, rather than somewhere is the middle of the last important swing).
Best Wishes,
Thales
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...Likely those who do need medication or therapy to deal with fear should not be trading in the first place.Funniest post at TL in a long, long time, MM - thanks for putting a smile on my face that doesn't seem in any hurry to go away.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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I am probably off here, but I will try anyway--I drew in the red line.. looks like a solid support line.. but, price did break it which would mean a possible test of lower support. So, not too sure about this observation.How about this: we've basically dipped below prior support, and have rallied nicely to the trend line. Perhaps it's not a good short because we've seen strength, and while we may not be in an "up trend," it's going against the most recent movement in price.
Support/resistance is rarely a line or a pot so much as it is a zone or a bed - take a look at the line you drew and try to imagine a rectangle, i.e. a zone or bed of support with depth, not a mere line. If you see what I see, then you would likely change your opinion from "a soid support line which price broke" to a "bed of support which price tested and support help."
Best Wishes,
Thales
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I've realized that I need some work...after Thales's post, I was honestly thinking to myself, Gosh, he's picky! My trade was ok!It is not about that trade or any particular trade right now, Cory.
Yes, you still need to watch price, make your analysis, and place your bet (or at least know where you would be placing your bet if you were indeed betting).
What you need to do right now is pay attention to what is going on around your trade, i.e. where has price been, where is it now, and how did it get there. I guess this is what others refer to as "context."
The reason I want you to stop playing with your stop is that I think you need to free yourself again to pay attention to the whole chart rather than focusing on the last few bars and next 300-400 tics.
You should place your bet, and then write down what you see, and do it immediately - Are you going long or short? Is the trade a reversal, or a continuation of the preceding main trend? Are you really trading a sharp, clear 123 or is it more of a choppy consolidation with little to no distinctive swings? Where is the nearest support? Why do you feel it should be support? How do you expect price to act if and when it gets there? What will you do if it acts as you expected? What if it does the unexpected? Where is the nearest resistance? Etc...
All those observations posted by your friends here, those "take aways," are what you need to be aware of in real time. You can say you are, but are you really?
And I do mean write it ... put pen to paper.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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...Is one issue that the short is taken into prior resistance which then served as support? (1.4143)That's a good observation ... what else?
Best Wishes,
Thales
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FINAL UPDATE: Losing trade. I got a pretty good move in favor, but it wasn't a happy ending. Perhaps I should have had my break-even line just a little higher...in line with the break-up...Is that what you are going to take away from today?
Study that chart, Cory. There are a number of things worth noting, the least of which is your concern about your breakeven threshold.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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....I think one can make a case that it is all about me, me, me the trader...until you get filled...and then unfortunately that theory is difficult to defend. For those who trade the ES regularly, this may ring a bell. How many of you have been filled, seen the market go in your direction and then retrace to take you out, before resuming a previous trend move, while you watch from the sidelines. Is that all about you the trader? I think not, but it does tell us that there are other participants out there who have the ability to shake us out of a position if they want to..." Is that all about you the trader? I think not..."
Ok, so you think it isn't. I think it is. All you have done is described a trader in a situation where an apparently well chosen entry was spoiled either by a badly chosen stop loss, or else by the failure to formulate and to follow an intelligent plan to re-enter in the direction of the initial entry. How is that anyone else's "fault" or "responsibility" than that of the individual trader. What does that have to do with "other participants" and their phantom "ability to shake us out."
I'll let you have the last word, if you choose, because while I am fond of debates, in your case I find no pleasure in discussing this with you.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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I'd like the "traders who have visited today" to be re-enabled. I always liked to be able to see if any of my od friends were up and around.Also, it seems as though the "currently viewing this thread" has been turned off as well. I thought that was also a good feature.
Best Wishes,
Thales
Since the "Wishlist" thread does not show u with recent posts, I am quoting this post here to make sure it gets noticed (I know MMSv2 is reading this thread, after all).
Best Wishes,
Thales
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I'd like the "traders who have visited today" to be re-enabled. I always liked to be able to see if any of my od friends were up and around.
Also, it seems as though the "currently viewing this thread" has been turned off as well. I thought that was also a good feature.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Cory,
Try this for four weeks: Don't move your stop. Place entry, stop loss, and profit target(s), and then let it go. You have everything down except you are trying to finesse your stops as the trade ages, and you just don't have that feel yet. You will get it, but you will get it by watching your trades mature on their own.
Trade small enough that you do not worry about the $$, or demo trade if you must, but let your trades mature on their own according to your initial analysis - entry, stop, profit objectives. You may end the four weeks net +/-, but the pnl is not what matters. You need to stop actively micromanaging your trades and learn to watch and enjoy price moving again.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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...First of all, this isn't cooking channel champ....this is the most competitive profession in the world and it has attracted many intelligent motivated people, with backgrounds in math, physics, programming and psychology, all being paid to find some way to beat the next guy to the prize...I have no reason to want to engage you at all. I do so only to say that you are dead wrong - this is cooking.
Trading is not at all competitive. Oh, it has become quite fashionable to say that it is so, but fashions come and go, while the eternal nature of the game endures. And it is a solitary game, not a competitive sport.
It is generally agreed that 90% who try to trade are net losers by the time they quit. How is that competitive? If competition is at all involved, then that is no competition at all - that's shooting fish in a barrel!
How is trading competitive? It is me against me. Nothing you do on the other end of a wire is going to change tomorrow's outcome for me. At 4PM tomorrow, my equity will be what it will be because of me, and no one else. And anyone buying the line that this is "the most competitive profession in the world" does so for one of two reasons:
1) Because succeed or fail, it pumps his ego to think himself part of "the most competitive profession in the world"; or
2) it comforts him in that his failures are due to having been out-foxed by others, and it is through no fault of his own that his results are not what he had hoped, and to achieve better results, he merely must learn to out-fox the other foxes, thus he is able to rationalize avoiding working on himself.
You choose your entry, you choose your target, you choose your stop - You place the trade - nothing anyone else does will affect the outcome of your choice.
Trading is not a competitive sport. Trading is nothing other than you and your ability to perceive, manage, and exploit risk, while maintaining the emotional and intellectual discipline necessary to do so profitably.
Traders who lose are not beaten by other traders. As Livermore well knew, "the market does not beat them. They beat themselves."
Period.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Thales - I assure you there are no paid vendors on TL getting special treatment. I also encourage good debate on TL and if you ever feel like someone is getting preferential treatment come speak with me about it ok?...Thanks everyone - let's keep TL a place people want to come to.MMSYou're starting to sound like a whole new MadMarketScientist. I think I'll call you MMSv2, or v2 for short. To tell you the truth, I wasn't a big fan of v1, at least in terms of operating TL. A nice enough guy, you understand, but he was no James.
But do try not to be so heavy handed with the censorship, ok? I agree that personal attacks, obscenities, and, of course, SPAM, ought to be struck from the TL record. But these little skirmishes give a bit of color and flesh out some internet characters, wouldn't you agree? Why not let them stand?
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Of course when you taste a decent dinner, you really are not thinking about the chef - you are focused on the food. No one wants the chef to be waving and gesturing that he is the one who did the cooking. And no one wants to be sitting at the table when a guest keeps demanding to see if that chef really is the one who did the cooking, or whether the food came from Woolworths!An overall excellent post - and this especially is an excellent analogy, Ingot54. I would only add that when the chef is waving and gesturing to all that he is the one who did the cooking, and he is at the same time offering you lessons in a cooking class, then one might forgive the dinner guest who insists on verifying that the chef did indeed prepare the meal before said guest forks over his tuition in the hope that he too might learn to cook as well as the chef, or at least better than said guest is currently able to cook, right?
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Optiontimer I believe is one trading "mechanic" who is putting together an "engine" and a decent "vehicle" with the assistance of the apprentices who are learning the "motor trade."See the thread, and follow along: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/9925-trend-momentum-indicators-choice-ii-2.html#post121696
I for one will be watching optiontimer's thread with great interest. Thank you for sharing, Ingot54.
Best Wishes,
Thales
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Ingot,My post was a statement in fact. If the person that it was directed toward doesn't like it, there is little i can do because he is the one who created the fact. As part of the deal, I risked exposure too. The truth about me would have been learned. I cannot change fact and I can direct you to the posts where the refusals were made.
I do not believe for a moment that one needs to prove he is a guru to teach trading. Every book we have read have been written by a non-guru and all the material you absorb helps shape you. A teacher needs to be able to teach in order to teach you. If he can trade and not teach, then you will learn nothing other than the fact that you can't do what he does.
However, when someone insists that he is of guru status, and is constantly being critical of others, well then let us see first hand the reason why he believes he deserve guru status. It is a reasonable request and a requirement in my mind if he is inclined to place himself in that status and give others the status of pretender.
Lastly, Ingot, there is only a marginal difference between you and a trader who has survived trading for 20 or 30 years. Money doesn't fall out of the market for that trade either.
MM
I see that MM's prior post has been deleted. Let us hope this one is allowed to stand.
I'd like to see TL return to putting the good of the community above the good of the paying vendors. I have no problem with such vendors peddling their wares here, so long as the TL community members are allowed to function as a sort of Consumer Reports for traders, examining the salesman's claims, which means that yes, we should be able to demand proof where such proof should reasonably be expected and given. I for one do not see where TL members ought to be "fish in a barrel" for these folks.
Best Wishes,
Thales
Reading Charts in Real Time
in General Trading
Posted
That is exactly what you should be looking to do - identify S/R on the 240 minute or higher, and then trade S to R and R to S. Give up those fib targets. You are using them indiscriminately. Even when I mention fib retracements, I always say to find significant fib levels that correspond to significant S/R levels. Your entry on Monday should have been for a 208 tick profit. S/R always trumps fibs. In fact, I am sure I have said thata here before.
As far as you desire for experience, I also said ...
Listen to SIUYA and listen to yourself: Quality is what matters. You gain quality experience by not trading when there you see no defined set ups at significant price levels. Do not trade for the sake of gaining experience. Trade or not trade based on where price is and what it is doing there.
Best Wishes,
Thales