thalestrader

If long at 132.69 stop loss would be 162.64

One last chart for Bathrobe - I think he was the ORLY trader.

How about at 132.69?

Hi Folks, Three trades today, +25, +14, +13 pennies respectively for +52 pennies on the day. Today is the last day of school, and for the next few trading days, my daughter and I will be watching coin markets and learning the ropes of the fxcm microlot trading station (she is very excited). We will also be visiting area ice cream stands, hamburger joints, a zoo, and an amusement park (I am very excited). Let's call it a "working vacation." At any rate, I will be concentrating on family, so I will not be trading, and I likely will not be posting much until next Monday or Tuesday, so I wish you all a great week and good luck. Best Wishes, Thales

EURJPY Anyone have any opinions on a Buy Stop at 132.82? If price does not break down here, it looks like we have three pushes into a low, and a tradable rally may ensue. Just thinking "out loud," and I do not wish to imply that I am taking this trade if it occurs.

I watch the ES but not constantly nor closely unless I see a real strong trade opportunity setting up, and then only if I am not already in several stock trades. I keep the cash DOW and Nasdaq COMP quote in my trading window. I monitor the market, but I do not decide to tkae a trade based upon the general market. I will not let a weak general market keep me from taking a long trade. I not allow a strong general market to keep me from a particular short trade. I do watch the IBD 100, which by definition, are the real market leaders. As goes the IBD 100, then typically, so goes the general market. Also, when IBD Big Picture says the market is in a confirmed rally, I find that the majority of my trades are long trades. When the IBD Big Picture says rally under pressure, my trades tend to be more balanced between long and short. And when IBD Big Picture says market is in correction (i.e. bear swing) the majority of my trades tend to be short. This is not because IBD says so, i.e. I do not make a conscious decision to focus on long trades, or a mix long and short, or short trades because of what IBD says. But, it does happen that that is how my trades fall, and IBD has a very accurate way of determining the immediate character of the market. If you have been tracking my trades since I've been posting here, you will see that for a while, most if not all of my trades were long, and most were profitable. I was on a real run. Then, about two weeks ago, I was still taking mosty long trades, but my results were not as strong - more losers than during the positive run, and few larger profits. I started to add some more short trades. Right now, I am about 50/50 long and short. If the downside picks up momentum, then I will likely shift to almost all short trades (as I was doing almost October 2008 until about 2/3'rds of the way through March. In other words, in my opinion, what the market is doing today or on any particular day is not nearly as important as what the intermediate (weeks to months) trend in the market is doing. If the market is in bull swing, then even on a down day I will find some strong long trades. If the market is in a bear swing, then even on a strong up day, my best trades will still likely be short trades. Best Wishes, Thales

No Trade on DVA for me GENZ has moved back through its consolidation for another attemoted break out. I did not trade this renewed effort, as price action is lookng wide and loose which is usually a sign that a trend is ending and not picking up steam.

That was quick - stopped at 54.22 for + 13 pennies

Short HESS at 54.36, This is an excellent short pattern - Mike Reed calls it a "slinky" where price bounces from a low and then sort of just rolls over. Of curse, you will also buy your fair share of low ticks as a stock puts in a double bottom, but the runners you get should make up for the losers. Also, stops should be very tight, as once the new low is penetrated, it should not retrace more than a few pennies above the first low. Best Wishes, Thales

I posted my first GENZ buy in the Stock Trader's Day thread. Here is a second GENZ buy point above the second trendline on this flag. Stop on the whole position is beneath the consolidation at 54.83 While typing this I have been stopped in to the second position, but price immediately reversed and raced to stop me out of my whole position. Final result: +14 Pennies on Genz

Here is a stock - DVA - nice pattern. Buy stop 48.01. If you are using freestockcharts.com, you will see that the hod was 47.95, but that is data from BATS only, I have included the chart from my trading platform, which consolidates the traders from all exchanges, ecn's etc. The hod is actually 48.00.

Stopped out with a +25 penny profit. I wish I had seen that reversal coming and reversed my position, but at least I had the trailing stop to lock in some profit.

Two stock trades this morning - sorry for the late post, as these charts are after the fact and not at all real time, so I am posting here in the stock trader's thread instead of the real time chart reading thread. imorgan had asked about slippage. Today, my buy stop for GENZ was 54.59, my fill was 54.64. That is about as bad as it typically gets, and it doesn't get that wide often. My sell stop for CNX was 33.31, and I was filled at 33.31 on the penny. This has been my experience on most of my trades, especially if there is sufficient liquidity and the market on the stock is not all that "fast." Best Wishes, Thales

Price had five tries at pushing above the 924 high on the five minute chart. I then expected that a retest and possible break of the opening range low 919.25, with the expectation that that would lead to a retest of the prior day's low. You are correct, that low would have been a target. I do not typically trade with targets, so rather than limit out, I would have watched for signs that price was going to find support and raly from the prior low before I'd exit the trade. Unlike the 6B example where you asked about the double top, there was sufficient price distance between the first trade here on the ES and the prior low to warrant a trade (after all, I see a bunch of folks here on TL and elsewhere who are happy to take a tick or two or three, let alone three or four whole ES points!). The second short entry is cutting it close, but still enough room on the ES to warrant me taking that trade (remember, you can always get out at the market with the click of one button). I try not to be bearish or bullish per se. I would have been a buyer of a break above 924, and my target would have been the prior day's high. I would not have had a take profit limit there either, but I would have been watchful for signs that price was going to reverse or push through that resistance. Best Wishes, Thales PS I do not have trading rules, but I do have what you might call guidelines. For every time I trade in accordance with all my guidelines I could find another trade where I disregarded one or more.

To those interested in actually applying TTT, please note richbois's use of prior low and prior high. TTT works when properly applied because it is built upon support and resistance and price action. Best Wishes, Thales

I saw it, but I did not consider an opportunity for a long trade. I actually had considered it a short trade. If you look at the 12:03 bar, which made the "2" low of a 1-2-3 reversal, the low was 1.6439. The buy stop for that double top would have been 1.6437, a two tick spread between the breakout and what should be strong resistance. A rally back to that two point (or a decline back to the 2 point in the case of an upside breakout) for a retest is common enough not to want to take a fresh position right into that support/resistance. In addition to that, I thought that the pattern that had formed between 5:03 am and 8:32, especially as it developed between 7:58 and 8:32, represented a top that would mark the HOD, so I was loking for trades where price was expected to work its way lower. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Frank, I agree completely about after the fact chart reading. I did not trade the ES today (I am primarily a stock trader with the occassional futures trade thrown in for the sport of it). But I do watch the ES, and I have included today's 5 minute ES with short entries (blue lines with arrows) and exit (thicker red hashed line) marked. This is what I meant in my original question. Where would you have entered today, had you been trading, and had you traded it as you would like to think you would have given what you se on the chart tonight. For example, first sell stop would have been 919, second short entry at 916.50, and 3rd entry at 915. Exit would have been trailing stop at 910.50 (again, I grant that this is a fair bit of "monday morning quarterbacking"). I try not to go into the day with a bias one way or the other, but just let price go where its wants to go. Once that 919.25 gave way I did start looking for short trades more than long trades, and once 916.75 (the prior low) gave way, I could then be said to have had a "short bias." I am very curious as to how you make entry and exit decisions based upon the indicators you are looking at. From your response, I suspect you are relying more on price itself and less on those indicators than one might presume from your detailed descriptions of how you use them. Thank you, Thales

I thought Tams was Happy ... what happened?

Hi Folks, I haven't kept up here on the p/l thread the last few days, but I've been trying to post most of my trades as they occur the best I can elsewhere on TL. My nine year old daughter has decided she wants to learn to trade this summer, so she and I have been watching, of all things, currency charts at night. I'm opening up one of those microlot accounts for her funded with the princely, or should I say, princessly sum of $25 (yes, you heard right, a cool twenty-five and xx/00 dollars American). May as well start her in the bucket shops, just like Livermore! Today's trades yielded +41 pennies/share traded on my stock trades, and +33ticks on the 6B. Best Wishes, Thales

Hi Frank, Thank you for sharing you expertise concerning the ADX. I have a question, or rather a group of questions: How do you trade based upon the information you are focusing upon? Where did you enter? Where do you place your stop(s)? When do you get out? Respectfully, Thales

EURJPY would be stopped out at 132.96 for +28 ticks (natural stop); and the GBPUSD has yet to give us a natural stop other than the one it so kindly presented to us soon after entry at basically breakeven. A sensible stop would have been at 1.6374, which would have been a 50% of open trade equity stop for +22 ticks profit. That may have been premature, as GBPUSD might give us a natural stop and continue its way lower. However, as both are rallying off of anticipated resistance, profit taking is sensible, at least on a portion of the position. A stop above 1.6386 is as close as I can see to a stop based upon what should be resistance.

How many times have I heard those words uttered just prior to an account going into drawdown? More than I can count. Best Wishes, Thales

Both have declined nicely and reached expected support levels. EURJPY currently has +48 ticks open profit from entry and GBPUSD is currently +41 ticks open profit from entry.

I am using the same cycle as richbois, and therefore my cycle is different from yours. I don't use squares and Ganns and so forth, but I agree with you EW levels. I have 912 as an important support level, and the next one I have of real importance 850 (848 to be exact). Best Wishes, Thales

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